Near-future landscapes as a futures tool

Insights created within futures studies (FS) and written up in the futures literature may be too abstract and diverse to fulfil the goal of FS to provide clear ‘maps’ to non-specialists of the near-term future. However, graphics and images may help to make futures concepts and emerging insights easier to grasp. The paper surveys a little used and under-studied approach: that of near-future landscapes (NFLs). Several examples are considered. Useful as they may be, they are viewed as transitional forms that will be improved upon by greater interest in futures imaging processes and further developments in the technologies of graphic representation.     

Beyond the mundane: reconciling breadth and depth in futures enquiry

For some time there has been a need within Futures Studies (FS) to develop methods which go beyond the dominant empirical tradition. For many years there has been a near-exclusive emphasis on understanding the external world ‘out there’. But as time has gone by, so it has become clear that our ability to understand the world ‘out there’ crucially depends on an underlying world of reference that is ‘in here’. Understanding the near-future environment calls for a combination of ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ views which, for example, give as much credence to judgment as to calculation. This paper considers a way of considering these very different ‘ways of knowing’. Overall, the aim is to go beyond what might be termed ‘mundane’ analysis, i.e. that which is preoccupied with surfaces, and to open out a broader arena for futures enquiry.     

Futures studies in the 21st Century: a reality-based view

Futures-thinking in various ways may or may not be expanding. But it is clearly an ever-changing activity, and appears to be ever more fragmented by culture, subject matter, style, and ideology. ‘Futures Studies (FS)’ as a subset of this larger activity is highly problematic as a viable entity, due to seven disabling myths: that FS is a field, that futurists are generalists, that futurists are primarily ‘futurists’, that FS does what no one else does, that FS is generally understood and appreciated, that FS is static, and that FS is a community. In contrast to these idealized but unsupported myths, the world of futures-thinking is presented as it really is, based on the author’s preparation of over 20,000 abstracts of futures-relevant literature over the past 30 years. Underlying complexity and wide diversity are sketched in three synoptic charts on the six purposive categories of futures-thinking (and 115 different terms that have been used), 17 general topical categories, and 12 generic continua on which futures-thinkers can be located. Based on this complex and fuzzy reality, futures studies should embrace its distinctiveness and strive to be a horizontal field connecting all others—a visible, respected, and ever-renewing network of humble hubs for integrative ‘big picture’ thinking about trends and visions of probable, possible, and preferable futures. To attain this status in the decades ahead, FS must communicate a shared and frequently-revised vision, emphasize all six purposive categories (especially integration and questioning), develop a serious global information system (and use it), establish an academic presence at leading institutions, fight back against ignorant futurist-bashers, promote multiple excellences, engage in ‘second profession’ recruitment and training, and secure adequate funding. These actions are necessary for establishing any meaningful ‘futures studies’ community.     

Revisiting the ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment : A conversation

In 1991, futurist Bruce E. Tonn proposed a ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment to the US Constitution. His proposed ‘Court of Generations’ lacked punitive powers but, hopefully, would have sufficient legitimacy to counteract extreme present-minded thinking evident in US political processes and institutions. Although Tonn's ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment has been well received in the futures community, who else has heard of it? Otherwise, has it made any difference? How can the cumbersome and nonfuturistic amendment procedure in the US Constitution generate a futures-oriented ‘Court of Generations’? And for those who sincerely look forward to a ‘Court of Generations,’ precisely what kind of tactically savvy visionary leadership will give the ‘Court of Generations’ any chance of being approved? During 1997, Vincent Kelly Pollard engaged Dr. Tonn in an Internet conversation aimed at clarifying these issues.     

Teaching about the future

Since 1984 UNESCO has been developing a programme of prospective studies. This programme was re-named ‘future-oriented studies’ and is now centred around three groups of activities: a project on the futures of culture; the development of education and training with special emphasis on disseminating the methodology of future-oriented studies; and the creation of an international bibliographic database called FUTURESCO. An invitational seminar, ‘Teaching about the future’, held in Vancouver, 21–23 June 1992, was a direct consequence of the above. It was organized and hosted by UNESCO (with FUTURESCO and the Canadian Commission for UNESCO). It brought together about 20 professional futurists from Pacific Basin countries to consider a range of theoretical, practical and pedagogic issues associated with teaching futures, mainly at the tertiary level.     

Envisioning new--buying used: Are the Pacific Islands caught between alternative communication futures?

With the ‘complexification’ of today's society, due in large measure to rapid technological convergence in the fields of communications and informatics, developing Pacific island countries are faced with what at the surface appears to be a devil's choice: jump on the high-tech bandwagon and risk being subsumed by the Western-dominated ‘cyberculture’, or withdraw from the technology-induced developments evidenced in richer countries and thereby run the risk of falling even further behind. This dichotomy is, of course, false and paints a rather nihilistic picture of Pacific islands futures. The contention here is that such a polemic is selling the Pacific islands a ‘used future’. Therefore, it is vitally important, at this juncture, for Pacific island leaders, entrepreneurs and citizens to recognize that creative, long-term future strategies for planning and optimizing the application and use of high-tech communications in economically advantageous and culturally appropriate ways are desperately needed.     

Betraying a futurist: The misappropriation of Gandhi''s Ramarajya

Discussing how a political futurist may envision present-tainted ‘realist’ futures, ideology-oriented ‘ambitious’ futures, ethics-inspired ‘ideal’ futures, or other types of futures, this essay describes who an idealist-futurist is. Proving that Mahatma Gandhi is such an idealist-futurist who builds his futurism on the rock of humanistic values by relishing the good and rejecting the bad, emphasizes the futures for the weak, and insists on working for future through futureful means such as truth and non-violence, it is pointed out how Gandhi's futurism has come to be pilfered and betrayed by the brahmanical Hindu right-wing future-thieves in present-day India.     

Retrieving the dream: How students envision their preferable futures

This article begins by recalling the crucial role that popular images of the future play in societal development. It notes the apparent dearth of positive images as we approach the millennium and highlights the value of futures workshops as a procedure for enabling participants to envision the future more clearly. In particular attention is drawn to the work of Elise Boulding and her findings in this field. A pilot-study is then described which used the process developed by Boulding to help students identify the key features of their preferable futures. Some support is found for her contention that a ‘baseline’ future often emerges from such work.     

From change to progress: critical spirituality and the futures of futures studies

This paper argues that for futures studies (FS) to have a future that is relevant to current shifts in meaning and consciousness, then it must incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a critically spiritual sensibility. Critical spirituality redefines rationality and empiricism by including within their framework both the somatic and the meditative as valid and necessary components of any research activity. In the short term this means a shift away from the current Western obsession with change and a stepping back to allow for critical distance in order to understand that it is in the appreciation of progress — a fundamental shift in consciousness to include the spiritual dimensions of human experience — that discourse will emerge to take FS to the heart of civilisational renewal. In allowing for mystery, silence and the meditative empiricism required to access these categories, critical spirituality lessens the gap between thought and action and thus enables truly transformative academic practice to emerge.The idea of progress has been central to the unfolding of the modernist project over the previous century. Yet as the century drew to a close it became increasingly hard to keep faith with the idea in the face of growing disillusionment and the obvious failure of modernism to deliver what people most wanted: happiness born of personal fulfillment. A growing range of voices in the critical futures field have been questioning the assumption that change in material terms equates with progress.These voices fall into four main areas.

• Post modernist and post structuralist thinkers;

• Feminists empowering postmodern discourse with value laden analyses of power;

• Post colonial thinkers with a debt to neo-Marxist and critical theorists;

• Neo-humanist thinkers with an investment in all three of the above, who work from a critically spiritual perspective.

In this paper I am going to argue that a Neo-humanist vision of the futures of Futures Studies is one which will fully engage the human potential by activating a critically spiritual methodology. This is important as many of the tools of futures work are actually intended for use in anticipating and managing change (uncritically) but have little relevance when considering the nature of progress. Those methods and techniques which engage with the less analytic more visionary process of futures are much more relevant to progress because they actively involve the individuals in the act of ‘futures building’ as opposed to ‘futures scanning’.‘Progress’ here is used to mean fundamental change in the consciousness of both the individual and collective mind. It is essentially spiritual and has no clear temporal or spacial restrictions being timeless, or as Joanna Macy would have it, anchored in “deep time” [1]. Change, on the other hand, is very much associated with technical and material movement, having no connection with the inner fabric of the human psyche. There is no appreciation of spirit here, though great attention is paid to gross national product and the latest technical innovation to hit the market.Futures Studies has the potential to be responsive to future human dilemmas. But to be so it will need to make the effort to embrace tools and concepts that lie beyond the narrow pall of academic rationality as it is currently constituted. A greater space is already emerging within the field that not only tolerates but promotes imaginative and creative processes that break down the intellectual prudery of those who are attached to their own discipline and have little capacity to envision beyond narrow and self imposed confines. Thus we find music and song, poetry and story, art and theatre effective vehicles for work on deeper forms of consciousness. Visioning and imaging workshops such as those run by Joanna Macy, Elise Boulding, John Seed and Warren Ziegler (to name but a few) are growing in power and sophistication. Meditation and other reflective practices — the spiritual quest — seeking to plumb the depth of the human soul become relevant when seen within a broadened definition of rationality and research.Clearly futurists need to be able to assess and describe likely changes in the short, medium and long term but their central goal should be to facilitate areas of human endeavor which can benefit from a closer linkage between action, the consciousness that informs and directs the action and the spirit that underwrites the consciousness. Equally clear is the fact that not all futures trends are as relevant to this deeper layer of operation within Futures Studies.     

Exploring (false) dualisms for environmental accounting praxis

This paper focuses on the political nature of the linguistic dualisms or ‘false antinomies’ that inhere in environmental accounting practice and environmental accounting research. These dualisms, ‘subject–object,’ ‘man–woman,’ ‘mind–body,’ and ‘culture–nature,’ the paper argues, need to be ‘ambiguized’ if the politics inherent in these dualisms are to be resisted. Two strategies for the ‘ambiguization’ of these dualisms are suggested: ‘performative parody,’ which is a strategy intended for environmental accounting practitioners, and ‘democratic reflexivity,’ which is a strategy intended for environmental accounting researchers. In taking this linguistic focus, the paper challenges common sense constructions of the environment and the potentially elitist and anti-democratic nature of environmental accounting research. By offering these two strategies, the paper provides a means of environmental accounting praxis, or means of resisting global ‘environmental’ domination.     

Futures studies as a civilizational catalyst

By the early 21st century, Futures Studies (FS) had developed into a globe-spanning meta-discipline with a range of methodologies, a rich literature and a substantial knowledge base. A small, but growing, number of universities around the world provided advanced degrees in FS. Yet, in spite of the wide use of futures methods such as the Delphi technique, trend analysis and scenario planning in pursuit of corporate strategies, substantive futures perspectives focused on long-range civilizational concerns remained underdeveloped or absent within most organizations and environments. This paper considers the rise of FS during the 20th century, some implications for FS of what I have called the ‘civilizational challenge’ and a number of strategies that may be used to increase the take-up and effectiveness of futures work over coming decades. The paper takes the view that the ultimate goal of FS at this time is to help create the foundations of a new civilization.     

Evaluating the penetration of the commodity economy

A recurring theme across the social sciences is that there is a natural and inevitable shift towards commodification. In this linear view of the trajectory of economies, ‘non-commodified’ economic activities are rapidly vanishing as the commodity economy, in which goods and services are produced by capitalist firms for a profit under conditions of market exchange, becomes ever more victorious, powerful and hegemonic. Until now, few have questioned this meta-narrative. Here, however, the intention is to evaluate critically the penetration of commodification. Investigating the depth and speed of the permeation of the advanced economies by the commodity economy, it is revealed that the non-commodified sphere has far from disappeared. Indeed, over the past 40 years, it has grown relative to the commodity economy and is now equal in size when the time spent working in these spheres is measured. Explaining this in terms of both the inherent contradictions embedded in the pursuit of commodification as well as the existence of ‘cultures of resistance’, the paper concludes that commodification is not only far from inevitable but the possibility of alternative futures for work beyond the all-conquering on-going advance of capitalism.     

Darwinian dystopia: the shape of things to come

Acknowledging that evolution is directionless, shaped only by context and history, and that predicting the future is, therefore, a risky business, scenarios for ‘short-term’ (next few centuries) and ‘long-term’ (10s-100s of thousands of years) futures are offered. The short-term future will be determined by the appearance of transnational corporations that represent levels of social complexity above that of the nation state. Best described as laissez-faire capitalism run amok, the rise of transnationals controlled by powerful managerial elites is warranted or justified by the simultaneous emergence of neo-conservative ideologies that resemble the pernicious social Darwinism of Victorian England. The long-term future will be shaped by the failure of humans to control their fertility. In the face of cultural barriers to rational control of population growth, and as global populations exceed the carrying capacity of the planet, countless millions of ignorant, miserable humans will barely eke out an existence, surviving only long enough to reproduce more of the same. The prospects for speciation are nil, given that high global population densities will preclude reproductive isolation.     

In occupied territory: future.con

Creating sustainable, diverse futures involves challenging assumptions that Western civilisation and linear, profit based models of unlimited development are universal. This is deeply threatening to many, but objections to such colonised futures are growing. Challenging these world-views means engaging with the complex and intersecting issues of culture, environment, globalisation, gender and sustainability. This paper tests Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) as a method to excavate the levels that have created the worldview behind one image of a colonised future. Analysis reveals a ‘Future.con’ which excludes most of humanity and pre-dicts a technological future in which humans may only exist to serve the machines they created. It is also the kind of image that, in a higher education context, fits and maintains pervasive but limited world-views. It could be different. Images and some of the tools of CLA can also be used in education to help envision sustainable, culturally diverse futures.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

Global modelling in the 1990s : A critical evaluation of a new wave

It seems that after a ‘golden decade’ in the 1970s and a period of decay in the 1980s, global modelling is making a comeback. In particular, the report Scanning the Future seems to mark the beginning of a new era in this respect. In this article this ‘new wave’ of the 1990s is compared with the ‘old wave’ of the 1970s. Although there is progress in the scientific realm, these new models lack a deep concern for the burning problems of our time like the poverty gap between the North and the South and the ‘ecological problematique’. In many ways these new models reflect the new mood of the times, which lacks any vision of a new paradigm and which is strongly ‘northern-centric’.     

Bridging the divides of online reporting

This paper looks at the possibilities of improving online reporting by closing the ‘digital divide’ through a ‘digitalised revolution’ and by narrowing the ‘accounting divide’ through the sharing of power and the expansion of membership in the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB). Paradoxically, whilst the IASB may have contributed to the ‘accounting divide’ it may very well possess the potential to close it and thus improve online reporting. The potential to bridge the ‘accounting divide’ rests with the greater participation by developing country members to exert influence and ownership of the accounting standards setting process.     

Professional standards in futures work

The question of professional standards in the futures arena is a major, but unresolved issue. The paper begins with aspects of a rationale. It then seeks to briefly define Futures Studies (FS) and to answer two questions: what is a futurist, and how can one become a futurist? It summarises various proposals for establishing standards including Bell's for a code of ethics. A number of questions about professional capabilities and behaviour are posed and some provisional answers are given. Several implications are derived for the World Futures Studies Federation as a ‘peak body’. The paper concludes that for FS to fulfil its potential it must pursue quality in every area.     

The end in sight?: Some speculations on environmental trends in the twenty-first century

For a generation there has been unresolved debate between anxious environmentalists and sanguine ‘contrarians’, both of which have been able to amass strong evidence in favour of their positions. This is an important paradox, and the paper attempts to resolve it by means of an elementary but robust model of environmental trends between 1950 and 2100. A crucial feature of the approach is to disaggregate the developed ‘North’ and developing ‘South’, revealing strikingly different patterns. The North's environmental impact will decline steadily, but in the South a rapid increase in environmental impact can be expected in the first half of the 21st century, followed by an equally rapid decline. This dramatic environmental ‘spike’ will be unique in human history and mark a fundament transition to the sustainable state. Its qualities and duration will determine many features of the human and natural world for millennia to come. Many policy implications flow from this analysis. Controversially, it suggests that the ‘spike’ should be embraced and managed rather than avoided or delayed.     

Gendered society, gendered futures research

New fields of research, new approaches and branches of science enrich the scientific world-view and scientific toolbox. Below I employ concepts developed for a newcomer to the domain of science, feminist and women's research, in the field of futures research. The distinction between biological sex and sociocultural gender is a useful conceptual device. The sociocultural woman's or man's role is distinguished from being a biological woman or man. With the help of this distinction feminists have shown that, especially in science, there is a dominant male mode of thinking, which they call ‘the male bias'. The male bias in Western futures research gets its extreme expression in the forecasting approach. There are, though, early efforts to develop ‘female futures research' from practical work with women's futures to theoretical and utopian considerations. The female approach is but an embryo and should be developed further. To begin is to understand the dilemma.