Symposium: Youth labour market and the “Great Recession”

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, followed by the “Great Recession” and the additional sovereign debt crisis in some peripheral countries of the Eurozone, resulted in huge and persistent effects on European youth labour markets. Theoretical and empirical investigations on this topic are still scarce compared with the importance of the topic and the consequent economic, social and policy implications. This paper consists of a very short introduction to a symposium that contributes to filling that gap. A multifaceted picture emerges with major policy implications for the three levels of government (European, national and regional/local) in order to reduce youth unemployment and the NEET phenomenon.     

Discussing the intriguing relation between unemployment and giving practices

This research attempts to provide responses to the question “Does unemployment make people less likely to give?” by developing a theoretical model based on consumer choice and labor supply and using data from the World Giving Index, collected for 153 countries from 2010 to 2015. The results from panel data and from ordered probit estimations revealed that countries with higher unemployment rates (especially male and female youth unemployment) are associated with values related to a less generous profile on the part of respondents. Our results were obtained while controlling for a convenient set of variables, and the estimated coefficients generated an extension of this discussion toward the models of welfare states and the giving practices worldwide.     

Do institutions affect the matching process of disabled people? The Italian case

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the various Italian regions’ efficiency in providing employment for disabled people under Law 12 March n.68 1999, “Regulation on the right to work of disabled people” (Law 68/99) can be affected by their institutional quality. For this reason, a Stochastic Frontier Approach is used for estimating the regional matching function, where the flow of disabled people who found a job is produced by the combination of unemployment and vacancies. The matching equation is estimated using regional data from ISFOL, from 2006 to 2011. Results show the presence of a territorial dualism with regard to the matching process. The Southern regions of Italy have the lowest efficiency scores due to their lower institutional quality. The empirical analysis confirms that a good institutional quality is able to reduce the inefficiency of the matching process of disabled people. Therefore, it requires the implementation of policies aimed at improving the level of institutions, particularly in Southern Italy, in order to improve the efficiency of Law 68/99.

     

Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East,North Africa,Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region

This paper builds on existing research investigating the root causes of terrorism by considering youth unemployment as a measure of economic deprivation. In particular, the study focuses on terrorism in Middle Eastern and North African (MENAP) countries and features terrorism incident count data for the period 1998–2012 using negative binomial regression models. In our exogenous model, we find that while youth unemployment tends to increase domestic terrorism, it does not have any significant effect on transnational terrorism. Given concerns about endogeneity of youth unemployment in these models, we use two kinds of corrections-instrumental variables and lagged variables. We control for endogeneity by using military expenditure, under-five mortality rate and foreign direct investment as instruments. We are not able to reject the null hypothesis that youth unemployment is exogenous. Using lagged variables, we find a similar result as noted in the exogenous specifications with regard to the effect of youth unemployment on domestic and transnational terrorism. We also find evidence that domestic terrorism tends to have a positive relationship with press freedom, religious and linguistic fractionalization, and area of the country. Transnational terrorism has a positive association with the quality of democracy and a negative association with political stability and regulatory quality. The amount of natural resources tends to be negatively associated with domestic terrorism and positively associated with transnational terrorism.     

A composite policy tool to measure territorial resilience capacity

The 2007–2008 global recession and consequent slow recovery have revealed considerable heterogeneity in economic performance across countries and regions. This study contributes innovatively to existing resilience literature by identifying a life cycle resilience framework and computing a “handy” composite Regional Economic Resilience Indicator. We analyse economic resilience by means of a cluster and exploratory spatial data analysis, revealing well-defined spatial patterns in the EU. National resilience trends dominate in the EU-15, while a more heterogeneous spatial pattern is present in the EU-13. Our findings can support the monitoring of economic resilience at regional level and facilitate a common understanding of this complex and dynamic process for policy purposes.     

Does immigration increase labour market flexibility?

The question we investigate empirically in this article is whether immigration makes the labour supply in the receiving country more responsive to regional differences in economic opportunities. The main merit of the paper is that we examine three stages in the regional mobility of refugees and labour immigrants: First, the settlement pattern of newly arrived immigrants, second, their subsequent mobility between regions and, third, their eventual exit from the regional labour market to abroad. The analyses apply to immigrants who arrived in Norway from 1995 to 2004. In all three stages, mobility is investigated with regard to its responsiveness to regional differences in wages and unemployment. The main finding is that, in all three stages, the geographical mobility of immigrants is sensitive to regional economic opportunities. In that sense, immigrants do “grease the wheels” of the labour markets, through all the three stages of mobility. The most robust results are found for regional unemployment differences. With regard to natives, we generally do not find any strong evidence for “greasing the wheels” effects.     

中国区域发展新格局的四个问题思考

近年来,中国区域发展总体战略不断充实完善,逐步形成区域发展的新格局。概括起来,区域发展新格局的特征呈现“四三二一格局”。总体来看,中国区域发展正在梯度跨域“中等收入陷进”,但与此同时,区域发展也出现了一些不容忽视的问题,比如,城市发展中的“双核带动”问题,区域发展中的南北分化、对工业化和城市化的认识偏差等,这些问题的解决对于中国区域经济的发展实践至关重要,值得深入研究和关注。     

Italian economic dualism and convergence clubs at regional level

This paper gives a contribution to the debate on regional convergence by comparing the long run prediction of convergence clubs introduced by Quah (1996 and 1997) with the actual observed dynamics of the Italian regions during the period 1970–2004. To this end we analyze the evolution of per capita income levels for the Italian regions using a non-traditional (non-parametric) statistical model. In addition we segment the set of economies by the mean of hierarchical clustering methodologies and compare the trajectories of the regions by introducing different notions of distance. The general conclusion is that the average distance identifies a clear division between a high performance club consisting of regions from the Center North, and a low performance club composed by regions from the South and islands. The presence of a cluster composed by Center North regions is substantially confirmed by the distance correlation analysis, suggesting an homogeneous response to external shocks. By contrast Southern regions display the same dynamical evolution but difference in co-movements. Our analysis provides hints about the fundamentals that link the regions in their process of divergence. In fact the performance clubs pattern we discovered reflects the distribution of economic activities as well as the structural attributes of the regional economies.     

Demographic and education effects on unemployment in Europe

We analyse the effects of demographic and education changes on unemployment rates in Europe. Using a panel of European countries for the 1975–2002 period - disaggregated by cohort and education - we empirically test the economic effects of the “baby bust” and the “education boom”. We find that structural shifts in the population age structure play an important role and that a significant share of variation in unemployment rates is also attributable to educational changes, the latter being usually neglected in aggregate studies. Results show that demographic and education shocks are qualitatively different for young (adult) workers as well as for more (less) educated people. Changes in the population age structure are positively related to the unemployment rate of young workers, while have no effect on adults. Conversely, changes in the education structure show a negative effect on the unemployment of the more educated. Labour market institutions also influence unemployment rates in different ways. Employment protection for regular workers increases unemployment rates, while temporary employment provisions reduce it. Unemployment benefits are found to have a displacement effect on unemployment, while corporatism of wage bargaining improves employment performance.     

Are some sectors more “youth friendly” than others? Employment regimes,sectors, and gender disparities in the Great Recession

Despite national differences in youth employment, many countries share striking similarities in the uneven sectoral distribution of job opportunities for young women and men in Europe. A shift‐share analysis of European Labour Force data identifies “youth‐friendly” sectors, how this varies between countries, and how this changed during the Great Recession. This reveals how youth job opportunities were lost because the sector shrank or because employers were less likely to offer full‐time, permanent contracts. New jobs for youth were more likely to be in part‐time and temporary employment. Youth vulnerability to unemployment is contingent not only on employers' engagement with institutions shaping school‐to‐work transitions but also on gender segregation and to the fact that some sectors have been particularly fragile during the economic crisis. Future research needs to link institutional effects with employers' business strategies to understand how these shape job opportunities for young women and men.     

The role of human capital after the crisis in Italy: A regional analysis

In the years of the prolonged post-crisis recession, the well-known North-South divide in Italy has significantly worsened. Several structural weaknesses limit both post-crisis recovery and socioeconomic convergence. A greater understanding of the economic contribution of workers' human capital, which is not fully exploited in Italy, could address the two issues. We analyze the effects of human capital on local economic performance and productivity, along with other socioeconomic variables, controlling for the endogeneity problem. Workers with a better education can promote economic recovery through productivity enhancement in the South, while traditional aspects related to industrialization are significant in the “wealthy North”. However, structural aspects, such as the local financial systems, must be developed to start a path to convergence for the North and the South.     

MIND THE GAP: UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE NEW EU REGIONS

Abstract.  The paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on regional unemployment during transition in Central and Eastern Europe. The focus is on optimal speed of transition (OST) models and on comparison of them with the neo-classical tradition. In the typical neo-classical models, spatial differences essentially arise as a consequence of supply side constraints and institutional rigidities. Slow-growth, high-unemployment regions are those with backward economic structures and constraints on factors mobility contribute to making differences persistent. However, such explanations leave the question unanswered of how unemployment differences arise in the first place. Economic transition provides an excellent testing ground to answer this question. Pre-figuring an empirical law, the OST literature finds that the high degree of labour turnover of high unemployment regions is associated with a high rate of industrial restructuring and, consequently, that low unemployment may be achieved by implementing transition more gradually. Moreover, international trade, foreign direct investment and various agglomeration factors help explain the success of capital cities compared to peripheral towns and rural areas in achieving low unemployment. The evidence of the empirical literature on supply side factors suggests that wage flexibility in Central and Eastern Europe is not lower than in other EU countries, while labour mobility seems to reinforce rather than change the spatial pattern of unemployment.     

How do trade openness,public expenditure and institutional performance affect unemployment in OIC countries? Evidence from the DCCE approach

This study explores the relationship between trade openness, public expenditure, institutional performance, and unemployment in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) (formerly the Organization of the Islamic Conference). The conventional panel data techniques overlook cross-sectional dependence and yield-biased results. A new methodology called dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) is employed to deal with the issue of cross-sectional dependence. The long-run results demonstrate that trade openness is inversely and significantly associated with overall unemployment and youth unemployment in lower-income as well as all the OIC economies and positively correlated in the higher-income OIC group. Public expenditure has an inverse and significant correlation with unemployment in OIC countries overall and higher-income OIC countries. Moreover, institutional performance and foreign direct investment are negatively related to unemployment in all OIC economies. The research shows the need for the continuation of open trade policies, strong institutions, and higher public expenditure in the OIC countries in order to decrease overall unemployment—in particular, youth unemployment.     

Trade, migration and regional unemployment

A by now large literature in regional economics has greatly improved our understanding of the determinants of the observed spatial disparities in productivity. However, this literature neglects what seems to be a robust and persistent fact accompanying regional productivity differences: high productivity regions also have lower unemployment than low productivity regions. In this paper, we set out a model in the New Economic Geography (NEG)/job search tradition to explore the theoretical determinants of this fact. We find that the same forces producing regional agglomeration and productivity differences also generate persistent unemployment disparities. Moreover, we highlight a contrast between the short-run and long-run effects of migration on regional unemployment. In particular, migration from the periphery to the core may reduce unemployment disparities in the short-run, but exacerbates them in the long-run.     

Cross-national tests of a third world development-migration paradigm: With particular attention to Venezuela

This paper amplifies a conceptual framework relating internal migration and development processes. This is first done by a cross-national comparison of regression parameters from interregional migration studies often different countries. Attention then turns to parallel analyses of interstate migration in Venezuela for three different time periods representing, approximately, 1940–1950, 1950–1960, and 1966–1971. These cross-national and temporal comparisons support the hypothesis that development systematically affects the role of distance separating origins and destinations, and of spatial differentials in urbanization levels, wages, unemployment, and education.     

Skills and labour incomes: how unequal is Italy as part of the Southern European countries?

This paper performs a comparative investigation of the effects of the Great Recession on the labour market structure and wage inequality in certain countries in Southern Europe (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). By exploring the intensity of the decline of middle-skill jobs during the years 2005–2013, which makes it possible to sketch what the labour market structure has set for itself (i.e., job polarisation, upgrading or neither), the objective is to relate these changes to wage inequality and its leading determinants. Through the Recentered Influence Function regression of the Gini index on EU-SILC data, Italy is compared to each selected country in order to evaluate how much of the spatial inequality gap is accounted for by the endowment in employee characteristics (composition effect) rather than the capability of each country’s labour market to reward these characteristics (wage structure) and, second, to identify those factors that are quantitatively more significant in making differentials. In brief, Italy is less unequal than the other Southern European countries. A larger amount of its “inequality advantage” depends on the wage structure. That is, the capacity of the country’s labour market in rewarding individual endowments is more important than the ways in which they are distributed across space.     

WORKERS' COMPENSATION COSTS AND REGIONAL GROWTH DYNAMICS*

This paper attempts to gauge the effect of workplace regulation, against the background of other influences, on the increasing or decreasing competitive advantage of particular regions relative to the nation. We employ two measures of regional growth. The first is the differential rate of investment growth across states between 1978 and 1984. The results for output growth show that states both in the South and outside the South stand to lose their competitive edge in manufacturing activity from rising unit labor cost and energy cost. Rising taxes hurt industrial activity in the North but are not critical in the South. Agglomeration economies that benefit the North, apparently have no detrimental effect in the South. Rising workers' compensation cost is significant in the decline in southern competitiveness; it is not in the North. Both regions enhance their competitive position when local markets grow. For regional manufacturing investment, we find that unit labor cost and energy cost have no significant effect on the competitive position of states in the South. However, taxes and workers' compensation costs hurt investment opportunities in South.     

Nonlinearity in the effects of financial development and financial structure on unemployment

The positive role of the financial sector in promoting economic growth has been well established among academics and practitioners since the early 1990s. However, more recently, there has been increasing evidence pointing to a vanishing, and even negative, effect of financial sectors at high levels of financial depth, particularly since the global financial crisis of 2007?2009. Too much finance could hurt growth. The paper shifts the focus towards labor market outcomes by examining whether too much finance also hurts unemployment. Using a dynamic simultaneous model via system GMM estimation and a panel of 97 OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1991–2015, we find that the answer depends on the type of finance and the extent of a country’s labor market flexibility. Specifically, (i) too much financial development hurts unemployment for countries with more rigid labor markets; (ii) too bank-centered or too little market-oriented financial systems worsen unemployment, particularly for countries with more flexible labor markets; and (iii) too much credit to private enterprises deteriorates unemployment in countries with more rigid labor markets, whereas too little credit to households worsens unemployment in countries with more flexible labor markets. Evidence also shows that these unemployment consequences possibly run through investment and entrepreneurship channels.     

Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?

We investigate the possible existence of asymmetries among Euro Area countries reactions to the European Central Bank monetary policy. Our analysis is based on a Structural Dynamic Factor model estimated on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables. Although the introduction of the euro has changed the monetary transmission mechanism in the individual countries towards a more homogeneous response, we find that differences still remain between North and South Europe in terms of prices and unemployment. These results are the consequence of country‐specific structures, rather than of European Central Bank policies.