Venture capitalists' decision criteria in new venture evaluation

What criteria do venture capitalists use to make venture investment decisions? The criteria venture capitalists use to make their venture investment decisions are of interest for several reasons. First, venture capitalists are conspicuously successful in their investment decisions. The success rate of venture capital-backed ventures is significantly higher than the success rate of new ventures generally (Dorsey 1979: Davis and Stetson 1984). A better understanding of the criteria used could lead to a better understanding of the reasons for this success.Second, a better understanding of the criteria for successful new ventures could lead to an improvement in the success rate of new ventures. Although there is no clear agreement on the precise rate, the failure rate among new ventures is generally viewed as significantly higher than the average failure rate (Dun and Bradstreet 1984; Van de Ven 1980; Shapero 1981).Finally, venture capitalists' investment criteria are of enormous import to entrepreneurs seeking venture funding. Such entrepreneurs require a significant infusion of capital in order to grow their businesses, and knowledge of the criteria sought by venture capitalists can aid entrepreneurs in gaining the necessary financing.This study attempts to uncover the criteria used by venture capitalists through semistructured interviews and verbal protocol analysis of venture capitalists' evaluations of actual venture proposals. Sixteen verbal protocols—in which the participants “think aloud” as they review business proposals— were made of venture capitalists' venture evaluation decisions.The findings of this study suggest that venture capitalists screen and assess business proposals very rapidly: the subjects in this study reached a GO/NO-GO decision in an average of less than six minutes on initial screening and less than 21 minutes on proposal assessment. In venture capitalists' initial proposal screening, key criteria identified include fit with the venture firm's lending guidelines and the long-term growth and profitability of the industry in which the proposed business will operate. In the second stage of proposal assessment, the source of the business proposal also played a major role in the venture capitalists' interest in the plan, with proposals previously reviewed by persons known and trusted by the venture capitalist receiving a high level of interest.In addition to the specific criteria identified and how they were used in reaching GO/NO-GO decisions, the findings of this study also were surprising for the lack of importance venture capitalists attached to the entrepreneur/entrepreneurial team and the strategy of the proposed venture during these early stages of the venture evaluation process.     

Angel investor network pitch meetings: The pull and push of peer opinion

The angel investing space has transformed as investors have moved from individual deal seeking to more collaborative models of investing. Angel networks are formal investor organizations that pursue investment deals with entrepreneurs, assist with deal screening, and coordinate due diligence. These coordination activities have clear benefits for angel network members, but they also give rise to a dynamic of reliant judgment in which the espoused opinions of network peers are taken as evidence that weighs heavily on the investment decision. In this article, we provide evidence from an experiment set in an angel investment pitch meeting that reveals the positive bias an angel investor shows toward peer opinions. By revealing these potentially hidden forces in angel network deliberations, we raise awareness and, by extension, offer response strategies for angels and angel network directors to properly manage the influence of peer opinion in angel network discussions.     

Shutting up shop: understanding the international exit process in retailing

Internationalisation is a much-studied phenomenon. Exit from international markets has been less analysed. Where it has been studied, most work has been on motives and causes, with relatively little on processes. This article explores the process of international exit in a retail context. It examines the run-up to, announcement of and fall-out from the decision by Marks and Spencer (one of Britain's leading retailers) to close its French stores. The article concludes that understanding the process of market exit is at least as important both for theoretical and practical reasons as understanding the decision to exit or divest. Further research needs to be undertaken on market exit and the processes involved, in order to contribute further to the theory and practice of internationalisation.     

Informal risk capital investors: Investment patterns on the East Coast of the U.S.A.

In this study we profile a group of informal investors, their investment criteria and the nature of their referral network. The study supports the findings of several earlier studies. It indicates the existence of an extensive informal investment community on the East Coast of the U.S.A., which can provide substantial financial resources to startup and young firms. A full 58% of the sample investments were in startups; a huge proportion compared with formal venture capital sources. The study further supports earlier findings that this group is difficult to locate, for entrepreneurs and researchers alike. This opaque market consists primarily of friends and business colleagues who individually provide modest sums of money ($20,000–$50,000), but are often able to use their network to assemble a group of investors who will sponsor the entire funding requirement. 130 informal investors report that in three years they and their networks raised 38 million dollars to support 286 new venture proposals.There are also encouraging indications that these angels are both enthusiastic and persistent. Many of them claim that they have achieved higher returns via angel activity than any other investment options that they have tried. Of the angels who did better with alternative investment options, more than 80% are still prepared to make further investments. Even those who reported failed investments in the informal risk capital market remain supportive: over 65% indicate a willingness to invest again.The criteria by which the angels screen the proposals differ markedly from those of the venture capital community. In particular, the angels do not appear to be interested in a thorough business plan, a sine qua non for venture capitalists. Unlike the capital firms, angels are not interested in competitive insulation. They do not limit their investments to industries that are appealing, or with which they are familiar, nor do they care very much about the degree to which the entrepreneur has identified competition. However, they are in close agreement with the venture capital community in their concern with the management ability of the venture team and a requirement that there be a clear, demonstrated need for the product or service, preferably in a market with large potential.The study has shed some light on the structure of the referral networks of angels. Though we do not know from this study how the respondents themselves first heard of the ventures that were described in this survey, we do know that their referral network is composed primarily of friends and business colleagues; to whom they refer as much as 60% of the proposals that they receive and in which they themselves eventually invest. Thus they pass on serious opportunities to their network. Their referees are inclined to be very supportive; in our sample almost 75% of them also invested in the venture. The current strategy for informal investors is to approach mainly close contacts. These are inclined to be supportive (85% also invested in the venture) and to follow a trusting investment behavior pattern, relying mainly on the recommendation of the angel. This strategem ensures that the total capital requirements are met via the network. However, given the results of this study; the angels might be well-advised not to stop here, they might also approach at least one professional. Only a small proportion of professionals were approached by our sample of angels (less than 30%). As the study shows, professionals are more effective at selecting successful ventures. Thus a mixed strategy may be called for; use mainly trusting referees to ensure full capitalization and a limited number of professional referees to screen the proposals. This will help ensure that those proposals that do get supported by the more trusting members of the network have been competently screened, thus increasing to the probability of venture success.A discriminant analysis revealed some useful pointers in helping the informal investor select successful ventures. First it is critical to select only ventures in which the entrepeneur can be relied on to evaluate the risks of the ventures and manage these risks well; Angels do not need entrepreneurs that will gamble with their money. Equally important is to avoid placing too much credence on highly articulate sales pitches by the venture team, or too much reliance on ventures in which the main emphasis is on product and proprietary protection. Rather insist on being shown clear evidence that the product or service has channel and/or market acceptance. It is also important for Angels to stick to investments where they know the industry well, and to back venture teams with a solid reputation and a propensity to get involved in the details rather than gloss them over. As in the case of studies of venture capital investments, competitive insulation in the early stages of the venture is also important.     

A Conceptual Model of Political Market Orientation

SUMMARY

This article proposes eight constructs of a conceptual model of political market orientation, taking inspiration from the business and political marketing literature. Four of the constructs are ‘behavioural’ in that they aim to describe the process of how information flows through the organisation. The remaining four constructs are attitudinal, designed to capture the awareness of members to the activities and importance of stakeholder groups in society, both internal and external to the organisation. The model not only allows the level of a party's political market orientation to be assessed, but also aids the party in making a context-specific decision with regard to the reallocation–or not–of party resources in order to attain the party's long-term objectives.     

Chief executive officers' dispositional optimism,host country's rule of law,and foreign market equity mode choice of Ghanaian small and medium‐sized enterprises

Despite a growing interest in the influence of managerial characteristics on firms' strategic decision‐making process, scholarly knowledge is limited with regard to how and when psychological attributes of executives affect firms' foreign entry mode decision. Building on behavioral decision‐making theory, we address this gap by investigating the effect of chief executive officers' (CEOs') optimism on firms' foreign market equity mode choice. In addition, we examine the moderating influence of the host country's rule of law on this relationship. Using primary data from 227 small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in Ghana, we found that increases in the levels of CEOs' optimism are related to the increases in preference for equity entry mode. This relationship is amplified when CEOs perceive the host country to have stronger rule of law. The findings have theoretical, managerial, and policy implications for SMEs' foreign market entry mode strategy.     

The potential of actuarial decision models: Can they improve the venture capital investment decision?

Venture capitalists (VCs) are considered experts in identifying high-potential new ventures—gazelles. VC-backed ventures survive at a much higher rate than those ventures backed by other sources Kunkel and Hofer 1991, Sandberg 1986, Timmons 1994. Thus, the VC decision process has received tremendous attention within the entrepreneurship literature. Nonetheless, VC-backed firms still fail at a surprisingly high rate (20%). Moreover, another 20% of the VC's portfolio fails to provide any return to the VC. Therefore, there is room for improvement in the VC investment process.The three staged investment process often begins with venture screening. First, VCs screen the hundreds of proposals they receive to assess which deserve further consideration. Those ventures that survive the initial stage are then subjected to extensive due diligence. Finally, the VC and entrepreneur negotiate terms of the investment. Considering the amount of time that due diligence and negotiation of terms may take, it is imperative that VCs minimize their efforts during screening so that only those ventures with the most potential proceed to the next stage. Yet, at the same time, the screening process should also be careful not to eliminate gazelles prematurely. VCs are in a quandary. How can they efficiently screen venture proposals without unduly rejecting high potential investments? The answer may be to use actuarial decision aides to assist in the screening process.Actuarial decision aides are models that decompose a decision into component parts (or cues) and recombine those cues to predict the potential outcome. For example, an actuarial model about the VC decision might decompose a venture proposal into decisions about the entrepreneurial team, the product, the market, etc. The sub-component decisions are than recombined to reach an overall assessment of the venture's potential. Such models have been developed in a number of decision domains (e.g., bank lending, psychological evaluations, etc.) and been found to be very robust. Specifically, these models often outperform the very experts that they are meant to mimic.The current study had 53 practicing VCs participate in a policy capturing experiment. The participants examined 50 ventures and judged each venture's success potential; would the venture ultimately succeed or fail. Likewise, identical information about each venture was input into two different types of actuarial models. One actuarial model—a bootstrap model—used information factors that VCs had identified as being most important to making a good investment decision. The second actuarial model was derived by Roure and Keeley (1990). The Roure and Keeley model best distinguished between success and failure in a study of 36 high-technology ventures. The bootstrap model outperformed all but one participating VC (he achieved the same accuracy rate as the bootstrap model). The Roure and Keely model, although less successful than the bootstrap model, outperformed over half of the participating VCs.The implications of this study are that properly developed actuarial models may be successful screening decision aides. The success of the actuarial models may be attributed to their consistency across different proposals and time. The models always weight the information cues the same. VCs, as are all human decision makers, may often be biased by differing salient information cues that cause them to misinterpret or ignore other important cues. For example, a VC may overlook product weaknesses if (s)he is familiar with the entrepreneur putting forth a particular proposal. Although the current study developed a generalized actuarial model, each VC firm could create screening models that fit it's particular decision criteria. The models could then be used by junior associates or lower level employees to perform an initial screen of received venture proposals thereby freeing senior associates' time.     

Gender differences in decision satisfaction within established dyads: Effects of competitive and cooperative behaviors

The research develops and tests a model of gender differences on the effects of competition and cooperation on decision satisfaction. It was hypothesized and found that males' satisfaction is dependent on their ability to impose their preferences on their female counterpart within a mixed‐gender dyad. In contrast, females' satisfaction is only affected by the degree to which dyad members behave cooperatively. The model is tested within the context of 76 mixed‐gender dyads that are in an established relationship. The dyads are sampled from shoppers at a national retailer, and report on their decision‐making process as they exit the store. A partial‐least‐squares (PLS) methodology is used to test for differences in the effects of cooperative and competitive behaviors on males' and females' satisfaction with a dyadic decision. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Reforming the IMF's Weighted Voting System

This paper surveys various proposals to reform the IMF's quota determination process and voting regime. We first provide some necessary context by describing IMF decision rules, including the methods by which the Fund determines quotas according to countries’ relative positions in the world economy. This section also addresses the arbitrariness of the IMF quota determination process and how IMF decision rules hamper developing country influence within the Fund. Following this, we review several proposals designed to provide developing countries greater voice in IMF decision‐making. We conclude that the problems of developing country representation are not likely to be fixed by either reallocating quotas on the margins of the existing IMF system or by tinkering with the quota‐determination formulas. Rather, more fundamental institutional adjustments will be required.     

An Empirical Investigation of the Formation and Implications of the Organizational Buyer's Strategic and Tactical Roles

Although research in organizational buying behavior has alluded to the importance of the purchasing agent's enacted role in the development and execution of an organization's procurement related activities, there exists little corresponding empirical evidence. This paper examined the buyer's self-perceived role, factors that affect its formation, and the impact that a buyer's role definition has on various aspects of buying behavior. Cluster analysis is employed to differentiate among purchasing agents based on their perceived participation in various stages of the purchasing decision process. Different patterns of behavior emerge from the five empirically derived clusters. These differences are presented and the managerial implications are discussed.     

Business angel early stage decision making

Using 150 interactions between entrepreneurs and potential investors, we study early stage business angel decision making. We show that contrary to the majority of past research that suggests they should, angel investors do not use a fully compensatory decision model wherein they weight and score a large number of attributes. Rather, they use a shortcut decision making heuristic known as elimination-by-aspects to reduce the available investment opportunities to a more manageable size. If an opportunity is diagnosed with a fatal flaw, it is rejected in the first stage of the decision making process, but all opportunities with no fatal flaws do progress beyond that stage.     

Group process and decision performance in a simulated marketing environment

This article presents an exploratory study designed to investigate which factors in a group process relate to effective marketing decision making. The study was conducted with 20 teams playing Markstrat, a marketing-simulation game. Results indicate that decision performance is positively related to the attitudes of the group members toward their task, the level of effort they exert, and the degree to which the more effective decision makers emerge from the group process.     

Personal Characteristics Underlying Ethical Decisions in Marketing Situations: A Survey of Small Business Managers*

This study analyzes the marketing ethics decision‐making process of small business managers. In particular, it examines the relative influences of ethical perceptions, personal moral philosophies, and gender on ethical intentions of small business managers. The sample of this study consists of professional members of the American Marketing Association working in companies with 500 employees or fewer. The results reveal that perceived ethical problem is a positive factor of a small business manager's ethical intention. The results generally support our hypothesis that female managers tend to be more ethical in their intention than their male counterparts. However, the results indicate that neither dimension of personal moral philosophy—idealism and relativism—is a significant predictor of a manager's ethical intention.     

Policies of promoting entrepreneurship and Angel Investment: Evidence from China

Using a sample of angel investments in China from 1994 to 2013, we examine effects of government policies that are favorable to start-ups on angel investment. Our findings show that positive effects of these policies on the amounts of angel investments are more significant in provinces with higher economic growth than those in provinces with lower economic growth. Policies that promote entrepreneurship affect the returns from high-amount angel investments more than those from low-amount ones. These findings indicate that such policies help to shape the new venture market in China and guide angel investors in making more efficient investments.     

贵州农产品供应链及物流效率问题分析

在社会主义市场经济条件下推进农业和农村经济发展,必须面向市场,搞活流通。做好农产品市场流通工作,是建设现代农业,繁荣农村经济的重要环节;文章从贵州农产品供应链与物流(效率)现状出发,分析贵州农产品供应链与物流过程中存在的问题及原因,并在此基础上提出相关的对策建议     

Understanding instrumental motivations for social responsibility engagement in a micro‐firm context

Firms engage in social responsibility activities for diverse reasons. This study focuses on understanding firms' instrumental motivations for engaging in socially responsible activities. We suggest that the instrumental motivations underlying firms' corporate social responsibility (CSR) engagement are associated with their market, learning, and risk‐related behaviors; thus, we identify market orientation, learning orientation, and risk‐taking attitudes as three constructs that influence firms' CSR engagement. This research was conducted in the Norwegian firewood sector, in which CSR expectations are high and in which we expect CSR engagement to be encouraged by both instrumental and normative motivations. The firms in this study are micro‐firms with fewer than 10 employees and represent an important but highly neglected segment of firms in CSR research. Data obtained from 230 firms were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Our results indicate that market orientation, learning orientation, and risk‐taking attitudes affect social responsibility toward different stakeholder groups in different ways. In some cases, the size and age of firms also affect these relationships.     

Management commitment to innovation and esop stock concentration

The separation of ownership and control can lead to managerial entrenchment and a convergence of decision making and decision control. Decision-making refers to management's authority to make strategic and operating decisions while decision control refers to the ratification and monitoring of management decisions. Managers that possess decision control may behave in a risk-reducing manner relative to the behavior of owner managers because of management's desire to maximize job security Amihud and Lev 1981, McEachern 1975. For example, the managers of such firms may choose to diversify the firm into a wide variety of industries in an attempt to smooth revenues and earnings and avoid a series of peaks and valleys in the company's financial performance. These managers may believe that stable earnings will be viewed positively by shareholders and should help lessen the risk of stockholder action to replace upper-level management. Managers that possess both decision-making and decision-control capabilities may pursue a variety of risk-reducing strategies in addition to broad diversification.The existence of large outside investors has been shown to result in management becoming less risk-averse; management is more willing to adopt a wide range of strategies that present greater risk, but offer greater returns to shareholders. Hill and Snell (1988) found a significant, positive correlation between stock concentration and R&D intensity, indicating that large outside beneficial owners or dominant stockholders can influence management to pursue higher risk-higher return strategies. R&D intensity is used as a proxy for innovation and is generally operationalized as a firm's industry-adjusted R&D expenditures as a percentage of its sales. Findings of other studies also suggest that large investors are associated with decreased risk aversion by management. When controlling for the effects of time, previous R&D spending, liquidity, market share, diversification, market concentration, industry, and leverage, Hansen and Hill (1992) found a mild positive correlation between institutional stock concentration and R&D spending.This paper examines management's ability to utilize employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) to facilitate managerial decision control or the capability to ratify and monitor decisions and subsequently adopt greater risk-reducing behavior. It is possible that management may adopt an ESOP to enhance entrenchment by placing a large block of the company's shares under the control of company managers and employees that are under the supervision of management. As a result, some ESOPs may not be effective alignment mechanisms since participants may find it difficult to organize a vote against management proposals or generate adequate enthusiasm and momentum to replace top-level managers. The paper anticipates that a positive relationship exists between the degree of ESOP stock concentration and the reduced risk-taking behavior of management. Specifically, the study argues that as ESOP stock concentration increases, management will likely behave in a risk-reducing manner and decrease its commitment to innovation, as measured by R&D intensity.Employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) are qualified retirement plans under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) and are treated similarly under the Act to other qualified pension plans with the exception of portfolio diversification. Employee stock ownership plans consist only of shares of the employer's stock and the performance of an ESOP-based retirement fund hinges with the market performance of that single stock. An agency theory framework would suggest that ESOPs that control large blocks of outstanding shares have an effect on management similar to that of other large investors and act to encourage management to craft and implement strategies that will yield superior financial and market performance. As ESOP stock concentration increases, agency theory proposes that ESOP participants would readily act to protect their interests and the interests of other shareholders. However, some previous research suggests that large ESOPs are not alignment mechanisms, but further entrench current management into their positions.Gordon and Pound (1990) found that management can use large ESOPs to increase effective insider ownership to protect against unwanted changes in corporate control. The authors suggested that ESOPs were less effective than other types of large investors at monitoring management decisions since ESOPs are unilaterally undertaken by management, ESOP shares are held only by incumbent managerial and non-managerial employees, and ESOP trustees are frequently appointed by management. The market has been shown to view an ESOP as a management entrenchment mechanism when the ESOP was adopted as a possible takeover defense Chang 1990, Dhillon and Ramirez 1994. The market reacts more favorably to an ESOP adoption when other large outside shareholders are present who have the capability to offset the influence of inefficient managers who might choose to use the ESOP to further entrench themselves into their positions (Park and Song 1995).The results of this study find that after the implementation of an ESOP, R&D intensity decreases as ESOP stock concentration increases. A significant negative relationship exists between ESOP stock concentration and change in industry-adjusted R&D intensity at the 0.05 level when controlling for firm size and change in profitability. The sample included firms where ESOP stock concentration represented as little as 3% of the employer's outstanding shares and as much as 67% of all outstanding employer stock. The sampled firms with the greatest ESOP stock concentration were associated with the greatest decreases in industry-adjusted R&D intensity after the implementation of the ESOP. The results suggest that management of high ESOP stock concentration firms became more risk-averse in regard to commitment to innovation after implementation of the ESOP.Agency theory adequately explains the effect of large outside stockholders on management's choice of strategy. Hill and Snell (1988) and Hansen and Hill (1992) have found that as stock concentration increases, incentive alignment becomes increasingly likely. The independent nature of large outside blockholders contributes to a separation of decision making from decision control, a reduction in agency costs, and a minimization of managerial risk-reducing behavior. As highly independent blockholder size decreases, decision making and decision control converge, and management entrenchment is more probable.Agency theory fails to adequately explain the effect of employee stock ownership on managerial risk-reducing behavior. Employee stock ownership does have the capability to align shareholder and employee interests under the proper conditions. However, ESOPs lack independence from managerial influence and are much less likely than outside institutional investors to monitor management decision-making and pressure management to adopt strategies that incorporate greater risk and an opportunity for greater returns. The study found that increased ESOP stock concentration was associated with greater managerial risk-reducing behavior. The results suggest that agency effects are more likely in firms with modest ESOP stock concentration since the ESOP does provide incentives for an alignment of interests, but does not provide management with a mechanism to block the actions of other large blockholders. ESOPs with higher levels of stock concentration are likely to facilitate management entrenchment by preventing some large percentage of shares from aligning with other large shareholders to challenge management decision-making. If other investors lack the capability to put full pressure on management, the monitoring and ratification of management decisions has been yielded to management. Therefore, a managerial entrenchment hypothesis is better suited than agency theory in explaining the effect of large ESOPs on management's risk-reducing behavior.     

Decisional Power in Group Decision Making: A Note on the Allocation of Group Members' Weights in the Multiplicative AHP and SMART

Many complex decisions are made in a group environment, where the decision is made jointly by a committee or group structure. The individual group members are often not equally qualified to contribute equitably to the decision process, or may have different saliences (desires) to influence the decision. A quantitative knowledge of the players' decisional power is useful for better understanding of the group decision process, and could even be used in weighted voting within the group structure. We adapt the REMBRANDT suite of decision models (multiplicative AHP and SMART) to measure decisional power in groups, and we generalise this to cater for the case where power itself is deemed to be multidimensional in nature, and the case of uncertain subjective judgements of power amongst group members.     

A Proposal of Toolkit for GDSS Facilitators

Most group decision meetings are perceived to be extremely unproductive in terms of efficiently utilizing the participants’ time and effectively achieving the group decision meeting objectives. Indeed, group decision meetings consume a great deal of time and effort in organizations. These problems occur frequently because effective guidelines or procedures are not used. To overcome these problems, many group decision support systems (GDSS) imbed some facilitation mechanisms and are currently being used with the help of a human facilitator who guides the group members through the decision process. We propose in this paper a toolkit for GDSS facilitators that we integrate in our proposed architecture for distributed GDSS. Based on a model of the decision making processes group facilitation tasks are automated, at least partially in order to increase the ability of inexperienced facilitator to monitor and control the group decision meeting process.     

The Effect of a Quantitative Decision Aid – Analytic Hierarchy Process – on Group Polarization

The objective of this paper is to examine group polarization in subjects who have access to a quantitative decision aid, comparing to subjects who do not. Group polarization indicates the opinion of a group involved in a decision process will tend to be more extreme in the direction of the norm than the initial opinions of its members. Most of previous studies were focused on the theoretical explanation of this effect. Two theories are generally proposed to explain it: social comparison (SC) and persuasive arguments (PA). As we know, no study has been worked on how it can be dealt with. In this study, we use Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a quantitative decision aid in a group process to examine the changes of this effect. Two hundred and forty undergraduate students participated in this study. Results show that persuasive argument was significantly reduced by the use of AHP, while no significant effect was found in group polarization and social comparison. The implications of the findings are further discussed.