Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980–2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of the cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in the potential growth rate. In the short run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe-haven” flows.     

Measuring the effects of fiscal policy

Measuring the effects of discretionary fiscal policy is both difficult and controversial, as some explicit or implicit identifying assumptions need to be made to isolate exogenous and unanticipated changes in taxes and government spending. Studies based on structural vector autoregressions typically achieve identification by restricting the contemporaneous interaction of fiscal and non-fiscal variables in a rather arbitrary way. In this paper, we relax those restrictions and identify fiscal policy shocks by exploiting the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. We use this methodology to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks in the U.S. before and after 1979. Our results show substantive differences in the economy׳s response to government spending and tax shocks across the two periods. Importantly, we find that increases in public spending are, in general, more effective than tax cuts in stimulating economic activity. A key contribution of this study is to provide a formal test of the identifying restrictions commonly used in the literature.     

Prioritization of government expenditure on health in India: A fiscal space perspective

Unequal distribution of fiscal resources and lower prioritization of budget towards healthcare are the most important challenges in achieving universal health coverage in India. This study has examined relationships between government health expenditure and fiscal space (i.e. tax revenue, non-tax revenue, fiscal transfer, and borrowings) in twenty-one states of India for the period of 1980–2014. Our panel regression results imply that mobilization of tax revenue has a positive impact, while borrowings have a negative impact on the allocation of government expenditure on healthcare in the long-run. The panel quantile regression results show that states associated with the low and middle level of revenue growth have been mobilizing finance through central government transfer and borrowings in short-run. Further, the panel vector error correction models show that sum of the lagged coefficients of borrowings have a greater impact on health financing process as compared to other sources of fiscal space at short-run, and the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is relatively slower. The overall analysis concludes that less domestic revenue mobilization and higher dependency of borrowings for healthcare financing may create fiscal stress on state finances in the long-run, and thereby it could possibly reduce the prioritization of spending. Therefore, improvement in revenue growth and proper utilization of fiscal transfer would be appropriate policy implications from this study.     

Network analysis of local currency Asian government bond markets: Assessments of the ABFI and the ABMI

The purpose of this paper is to assess local currency (LCY) Asian government bond markets using network analysis during the period 2001–2017. In particular, we (i) assess how the network of the markets is connected (integrated), (ii) assess how the risks over the network diverge following a risk shock in one market, and (iii) determine under what conditions rapid reconvergence occurs. We found that the network of LCY Asian government bond markets is fully connected by the Asian Bond Fund Initiative and the Asian Bond Market Initiative, and thus, risk can reach further out faster in the web of stronger relationships in the post-2008 period. The quarantine of and assistance for risks in the center market lead to rapid reconvergence compared with other markets. These findings suggest the success of LCY Asian government bond financing promoted by ABFI and ABMI, triggering LCY Asian corporate bond financing.     

Exploring the determinants of green bond issuance: Going beyond the long-lasting debate on performance consequences

In recent years, the need to create new financial tools to mobilize private capital and generate suitable resources to face both social and environmental challenges led to the development of new tools and ideas. In this context, green bonds have emerged as a new financial tool to better respond to sustainability themes. This study is the first attempt to explore in depth the determinants of green bond performance. We focused on three perspectives: the specific characteristics of projects financed through a green bond, the broader firm-specific corporate sustainability-oriented strategy of the firm, and a country-level perspective analyzing the country-specific determinants of green bond performance. To test the hypotheses a sample of 306 corporate green bonds issued by 85 companies and referring to 1,788 green projects between 2013 and 2016, were retrieved from the Bloomberg database. The results provide interesting theoretical and practical implications for green bond issuers as well as investors and governments interested in green bonds.     

Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment

In this study, using dynamic panel data, we investigated the influences of the home country economic environment and parent bank condition on the credit risk of foreign banks in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We concentrated on the international transmission of credit risk through the internal capital market of multinational banks. Our theoretical assumptions follow studies that document how the parent bank condition and home country macroeconomic environment affect lending in subsidiaries in CEE countries. However, our results go one step further. We provide evidence that these relationships are reflected in subsidiaries’ credit risk in CEE countries. Our results suggest that the size and profitability of the parent bank have negative influences, while the liquidity and credit risk of the parent bank have positive influences on the subsidiaries’ credit risk. Moreover, the GDP growth in the parent bank’s country has a negative effect on the credit risk of the subsidiary, while the lending rate and liquidity in the parent bank country cause growth in the credit risk. These results indicate a new channel of international risk transfer from parent bank countries to host countries through foreign-owned banks.     

The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries

This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU member states. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. At the same time, the recent evidence seems to suggest that following the global financial crisis, “hard peg” countries may have experienced a more severe adjustment process than “floaters”. The results are economically and statistically significant and robust.     

The impact of Universal Service Obligations and International Cross-subsidies on the dispersion of telephone services in developing countries

This paper re-evaluates the telecommunication policies often applied to create regional dispersion of services in developing countries. We observe that failure to consider the complexities of the regional telecommunication systems in creating policies and investment strategies has increased the telecom gap between urban and rural regions worldwide. In particular, the teledensities of rural telecommunications in developing countries have remained very low in spite of support through universal service obligation fees and cross-subsidization from international services. As traditional methods for economic analysis and modeling have failed to identify mechanisms that improve telephone dispersion in these countries, we use a system dynamics modeling approach to deal with complexities of the situation in order to evaluate how Universal Service Obligations (USOs) and International Cross-Subsidy (ICS) policies affect telephone densities. We demonstrate that these policies may be counterproductive due to the structure of the telecom system itself. We also show that, when market-clearing pricing is combined with USOs once the urban telephone density reaches a minimum threshold, the dispersion of rural telecommunications can be considerably improved.     

The impact of performance-based budgeting on state fiscal performance

Almost all American States have tried some form of performance-based budgeting, and this study examines the impact of this budget process innovation on state expenditures. Using panel data for 1970 through 1997 the findings indicate that performance-based budgeting curtails state spending per capita by at least two percentage points. However, not all state government programs are affected equally; some budget categories experience spending increases after the implementation of performance budgeting. The paper also examines the adoption pattern among states of performance budgeting rules.Submittied: May 2002, Accepted: December 2002, JEL Classification Numbers: H3, H7, H72We are grateful to Ami Glazer, Tim Muris, Gordon Tullock, and to two anonymous referees for valuable comments on an earlier draft, and to the Center for Study of Public Choice for financial support. We are responsible for remaining errors.     

城镇化进程中政府的职能作用

城镇化的推进需要各级政府发挥主导作用.本文认为,政府的主导作用主要表现为城镇化确立发展理念,科学定位区域内产业分工与协作,加强监督管理,改革城建投融资体制,促进城镇可持续发展,着力营造和优化环境等.政府要通过发挥决策作用、服务作用、法治规范作用、宣传教育作用等实现对城镇化的推进.     

西方国家文化产业的就业特点

自"世界文化政策大会"召开20余年来,文化产业发展大潮已席卷大多数西方国家.根据西方学者的相关研究,西方国家文化产业就业主要呈现以下七个特点:巨大的就业量、较快的就业增速、主要分布在都市区、分布倾向于发达大城市、各地域具有不同的优势部门、产业结构中"生产"功能增长显著、生产活动中中小型企业处支配地位.结合我国的实际状况,西方国家文化产业就业可以给我国如下启示:就业应成为文化产业发展的指示器;文化产业不是绝对的支柱产业;要扶持优势产业以促进城市竞争力;农村地区可以适当发展文化产业;文化产业不等同于高新技术产业;注重对小企业的扶持.     

市政公用事业市场化与政府监管

在推进市政公用事业市场化的过程中,必须加强对市政公用事业的监管,监管的主要内容应包括以下几个方面:市场准入与退出;价格监管;产品与服务质量;运行安全;网络监管以及竞争秩序监管等.     

The influence of ownership structure and board independence on the cost of debt in BRIC countries

Agency theory predicts that the default premium on debt is determined by the intensity of agency conflicts since they affect the risk of debtholders. This effect is especially important in emerging countries with high ownership concentration and low protection of minority owners. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the influence of ownership structure and board independence on the cost of debt in BRIC countries over the period 2007–2020. The main finding of the study is the presence of significant country-specific effects of ownership structure on the cost of debt measured with the G-spread on corporate bonds, as well as the absence of effects of board independence. According to our results, concentrated ownership and state ownership increase the cost of debt in Brazil and Russia, while decreasing it in China. We reveal that institutional investors help mitigate the risks of debtholders in China, while insider ownership decreases the default risk in Brazil.     

The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries

This study examines the effects of three types of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries with a new method of isolating oil price shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1997 to January 2019, we find that each oil price shock has the largest effect on U.S. inflation among the G7 countries and each country’s response to oil price shocks is different. Moreover, a rolling-window analysis shows that supply shocks, demand shocks and risk shocks have dynamic effects on inflation. The effect of supply shocks on inflation is strong before the financial crisis, but weakens during the crisis. However, the effect of demand shocks increases sharply in this time. The effect of risk shocks mainly occurs during the financial crisis and the European debt crisis. In addition, this study uses two ways to verify the robustness of the results. Our empirical results have important implications for policymakers and manufacturers, since the results provide a good explanation for the response of inflation in the G7 countries to the oil price shocks from different sources.     

Public spending and economies of scale in partial fiscal decentralized governments: The case of Chile

This article evaluates economies of scale in local public spending in Chile, emphasizing the country's geographical features and high fiscal heterogeneity. We leverage balanced panel data for ten years and 307 municipalities in order to estimate the population level at which a reduction in the average cost of local public goods provision occurs and to differentiate between levels of market potential. We follow a theoretical model of cost efficiency that considers spatial interactions and spillover effects among neighboring jurisdictions. Our findings suggest that Chilean municipalities reach an optimum population level at around 700,000 inhabitants, which is high considering that only two cities qualify. When differentiating for levels of economies of scale according to levels of market potential, municipalities with a low potential reach their optimum at around 28,000 inhabitants, those with a medium potential reach it at approximately 124,000, and those with a high potential reach it at approximately 680,000.     

The impact of state power on economic growth rates in OECD countries

Inspired by public choice theories — in particular the work of Bernholz, Downs, Olson and Tullock — two propositions are advanced. First, the older a democracy is, the slower its growth rates should become. Second, the higher the social security spending is, the slower economic growth rates should become. Pooled regression analysis and the growth experience of 19 OECD nations between 1960 and 1985 allow for an empirical test. Unfortunately, results very much depend on a technical issue, i.e., on the inclusion or exclusion of period and country dummy variables. It is argued that inclusion of the dummies is misleading. If you accept these arguments, then the propositions linking age of democracy or social security transfers on the one hand and lower economic growth rates on the other hand are confirmed.     

The sponsorship system and infringements of the rights of foreign workers in the Gulf countries

Previous research on foreign workers in the oil-rich Gulf countries indicates that the origins of some of the major problems encountered by these workers are found in the labor and residence laws and regulations. An initial investigation revealed that exploitation of foreign workers is facilitated by the powers granted to the employer by the sponsorship system. Data used in this research were obtained from available information about foreign workers in Saudi Arabia. Results obtained here confirm that unscrupulous employers abuse the sponsorship system to deprive their foreign employees of their rights. A number of measures to remedy this situation are recommended.     

The integration of sustainability within value management practices: A study of experienced value managers in the GCC countries

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) comprises the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom of Bahrain, and the states of Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries are fairly similar in terms of socioeconomic, commercial, and infrastructural development. Disappointingly perhaps, their thriving construction industries continue to score poorly in terms of sustainability. Although value management (VM) has been proposed as a potential mechanism for delivering sustainable construction projects in some countries, this idea has not yet been widely put into practice around the world. The aim of this article is to investigate this potential in the GCC countries through interviewing 17 experienced value managers from the GCC. The primary conclusion, derived from the viewpoints of these value managers, is that such an endeavor might be unviable at present, largely due to a lack of awareness with regard to sustainability issues in the GCC. Proposals are therefore provided to assist in a successful integration of sustainability into VM practices in the GCC region.     

The effect of corruption on entrepreneurship in the presence of weak regulatory quality: Evidence from developing countries

Efforts to improve currently low entrepreneurship in developing countries could be necessary but likely hampered by the high corruption. With poor regulatory quality in most developing countries, the effect of corruption on entrepreneurship could be unique. By using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, utilizing 48 developing countries as the sample for the period from 2008 to 2016, this study finds that there is a conditional effect of corruption on entrepreneurship, implying that poor regulatory quality has forced and opened up the door for individuals to offer bribes in order to start a new business. Nonetheless, as corruption could add to the high cost of business start-ups, to enhance entrepreneurship, policymakers need to give priority to improving regulatory quality and, subsequently, force corruption to fade away.