地方政府专项债券的收益与风险——来自学术文献与中国实践的启示

通过梳理国内外关于专项债的节点文献,分别从经济收益和地方债务风险两个角度综合考虑专项债的制度绩效,从而为新时代现代财政制度建设提供一定的理论参考。结果发现:专项债可以通过拉动投资来带动地方经济的发展,但可能导致挤出私人投资、影响产业结构升级和拉大地区差距等问题;专项债可以通过降低地方政府的融资成本、隐性债务显性化和规模控制来降低地方债务风险,但也存在额度分配的指标体系不完善、资金管理体系不健全等问题。鉴于此,应加快完善专项债的制度设计,使专项债更好地发挥其\"稳基建、保增长、补短板、防风险\"的作用。     

希腊债务危机的负面影响与警示

对希腊债务危机的内外部原因进行分析,剖析希腊债务危机的负面影响,主要表现在:影响欧元区乃至欧洲经济的稳定,危机可能会蔓延到部分欧洲银行,债务解决出现两难困境,可能诱发全球赤字浪潮爆发,造成全球经济的波动。总结出希腊债务危机启示:欧盟①组建强有力的欧洲货币基金组织对债务问题进行及时有效的救助,金融创新需要与实体经济发展相匹配;对中国而言,尤其是要关注各级地方政府积累的巨额债务。     

Debt Rating Initiations： Natural Evolution or Opportunistic Behavior？

The authors examine a firm＇s decision to begin issuing debt in public bond markets and find that it is a function of both life cycle influences and opportunistic timing. Defining life cycle factors to encompass both a firm＇s age in years and its underlying characteristics, the authors confirm that bond market participation is generally restricted to large, mature firms. Summary statistics show that finns obtain their initial bond ratings on average 9.5 years after their equity initial public offering （IPO） and 11.8 years after initiating dividend payments. Growth rates, capital expenditures, and cash flow volatility all decline as the firm accesses public debt markets, consistent with entry into the mature phase of its life cycle. With respect to opportunistic timing, it is asked whether entry into public bond markets follows strong performance （or precedes weak performance） at both the firm and market levels. At the firm level, the authors find that the debt IPO occurs following periods of strong operating performance and high excess stock returns. At the market level, entry coincides with favorable interest rates and default spreads. The benefits of careful timing result in firms receiving initial bond ratings that are stronger than what would be predicted; however, there is no evidence of abnormal numbers of downgrades for these firms in subsequent years.     

论可交换公司债券的会计处理

可交换公司债券是与可转换公司债券非常相似的金融工具,但其与可转换公司债券相比具有自身特殊性。根据企业会计准则的相关规定,本文以债券发行者和投资者作为会计主体,探讨这一新的金融工具的相关会计处理。     

The US debt–growth nexus along the business cycle

We use the US data gathered by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) to assess whether debt affects economic growth differently at different phases of the business cycle. In order to do that, we extend the threshold regression model of Chudik et al. (2017) and propose a new threshold quantile ARDL regression model. Our results show that to stimulate growth policy makers can manage the debt/GDP percentage according to how well the economy is doing. The estimated quantile thresholds (range 31–53 per cent) are larger than the one found by Lee et al. (2017) using median regressions, but still (much) smaller than the 90 per cent of Reinhart and Rogoff. In particular, when the US economy observes growth rates above their median value, that is when a smaller debt-to-GDP threshold affects the performance of the economy. In a steady-state situation, in general, regardless of the position of the business cycle and whether the debt-to-GDP ratio is below or above its threshold effect, less debt as a percentage of GDP boosts the US growth. Remarkably, this effect was always greater before than after World War II. Moreover, the most recent decades have witnessed the negative (positive) effect of more (less) debt when the economy had growth rates at their first quartile (median and third quartile). That is, the US policy makers are advised to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio during expansions to promote growth.     

Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?

This paper explores the budgetary implications of the independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the European Union (EU). We employ a dynamic panel model for the period 2000–2019 and find that these fiscal watchdogs have a positive and significant influence not only on government budget balance for the EU member states, resulting in smaller government budget deficits, but also on countries’ compliance with fiscal rules, results that hold across alternative fiscal balances. IFIs appear to have a beneficial impact on fiscal performance and compliance with numerical targets in countries with poorly designed fiscal responsibility norms but weaker influence when fiscal rules are less binding (well-designed fiscal rules). The findings remain significant regardless the year of accession to the EU (old vs. new members) or euro-area status (euro-area vs. non-euro-area members). However, we document that IFIs play a larger role in countries that established these monitoring bodies before 2013, indicating that experience matters in IFI performance. Also, our findings show that the influence of IFIs remains if we take into account institutional reforms in which their mandates were extended with different powers and tasks, which has a positive and significant effect on fiscal balances. Moreover, we find that, under the circumstance of systemic and banking crises, these institutions are associated with improved fiscal outcomes, reflecting their increased concern about the path of public finances and their role in reducing budgetary forecasting biases. Our results are robust to a variety of specifications and models, including alternative measures of the government budget balance and after controlling for a set of institutional characteristics and for potential endogeneity in the estimations.     

欧债危机冲击我国股票与债券市场的风险传染研究？

欧债危机对金融市场产生了显著的冲击,引发了巨大的风险。本文通过构建二元GARCH-BEKK模型,实证检验了欧债危机背景下欧洲股票市场、我国股票市场、国债市场与企业债市场之间的波动溢出效应,揭示了欧债危机冲击我国股票市场、国债市场与企业债市场的风险传染路径。实证表明,欧债危机冲击我国股票市场与债券市场的风险传导路径为：欧债危机引发的风险通过欧洲股票市场传导到我国股票市场,然后传导到企业债市场,最后传导到国债市场。     

Public versus private provision of liquidity: Is there a trade-off?

To what extent is public debt private liquidity? Much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households. This is the case for ad-hoc debt limits, which are exogenous to public policy. Instead, if debt limits are fully endogenous, as e.g. in the case of the natural borrowing limit, public debt has no impact. We assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes. Using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks, we show that public debt provides some liquidity, but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad-hoc. We show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions, such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity.     

社会效益债券:地方政府融资制度的创新探索

社会效益债券作为一种地方政府融资制度创新,能够助益地方政府走出资金困境。其核心意旨在于政府仅为效果付费,实现地方政府融资方式创新与债务控制的双重目标。我国已有地方政府运用社会效益债券进行融资,但其属性不明引起合规性风险、监管缺位以及投资者权益保障不足等问题。基于此,建议先将社会效益债券定性为地方政府专项债券,而后从地方实践需要中寻找突破口进行制度建构和风险防控。     

公开发行债券能提高企业创新产出吗？

以2006—2021年我国A股上市公司为样本,探讨了企业首次发行债券如何影响企业的创新水平。研究发现,企业首次公开发行债券能够显著提升企业的创新水平。机制分析结果表明,企业发行债券通过建立替代性融资渠道缓解融资约束,延长整体债务期限,提高信息披露水平这三个路径来提升企业创新水平。进一步研究发现,在控制了企业后续发债行为后,公开发行债券与企业创新的关系仍然存在;相比于公司债,企业首次发行债券种类为中期票据和企业债时,企业创新水平提升更显著;企业首次发行债券时,债券信用评级越高、发行利率越低,对于企业创新水平的提升越显著。研究结论丰富了债券市场经济后果的研究,也为企业创新发展和实现经济高质量发展提供了来自债券市场的建议。