A change in market microstructure: the switch to electronic screen trading on the New Zealand stock exchange

The New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZSE) switched from open outcry trading to an electronic screen trading system on June 24, 1991. The change was made by the members of the exchange to improve the trading system and to reduce costs. This paper investigates empirically whether improvement was achieved through a reduction in transaction costs. The tests and results focus on order-flow migration to the exchange from alternative execution locations and changes in bid-ask spreads. On balance, we conclude that transaction costs have declined.     

Efficient estimation of drift parameters in stochastic volatility models

We study the parametric problem of estimating the drift coefficient in a stochastic volatility model , where Y is a log price process and V the volatility process. Assuming that one can recover the volatility, precisely enough, from the observation of the price process, we construct an efficient estimator for the drift parameter of the diffusion V. As an application we present the efficient estimation based on the discrete sampling with δ _n →0 and n δ _n →∞. We show that our setup is general enough to cover the case of ‘microstructure noise’ for the price process as well.      

The submission of limit orders or market orders: The role of timing and information in the Reuters D2000-2 system

Recent work in the market microstructure literature suggests that the speed with which orders arrive in the market impacts traders' order submission decisions. In this study we use an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model to empirically investigate the influence on the submission of limit and market orders of changes in the time between the past submissions of different types of orders, changes in the slope of the limit order book, and changes in price uncertainty. We find that the expected time between the arrivals of successive orders in the foreign exchange market depends on the previous type of order submitted and the slope on both sides of the order book. Price uncertainty (volatility) plays a secondary role after accounting for the impact of changes in the slope of the order book. Lastly, we find that there are fundamental changes in the level of information contained in the submission of orders at the opening and closing of markets.     

An information-based model of target stock price runup in the market for corporate control

The stock price runup of target firms in the market for corporate control has been anecdotally attributed to inside trading. Moreover, the empirical merger and acquisitions literature documents a time-varying level and duration of the stock price runup of target firms. Using a market microstructure approach, we model stock price runup as a stochastic process that shifts between a random walk without drift and a predictable process dependent on a parsimonious set of state variables. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, predictability in prices can be exploited only by the informed trader. The model is capable of explaining the complex stylized facts observed in stock price runup. It is also consistent with the merger wave literature, as we find that capital liquidity, economic growth, and market valuations drive the complex dynamics of stock price runup.     

Properties of Bias-Corrected Realized Variance Under Alternative Sampling Schemes

In this article I study the statistical properties of a bias-correctedrealized variance measure when high-frequency asset prices arecontaminated with market microstructure noise. The analysisis based on a pure jump process for asset prices and explicitlydistinguishes among different sampling schemes, including calendartime, business time, and transaction time sampling. Two mainfindings emerge from the theoretical and empirical analysis.First, based on the mean-squared error (MSE) criterion, a biascorrection to realized variance (RV) allows for the more efficientuse of higher frequency data than the conventional RV estimator.Second, sampling in business time or transaction time is generallysuperior to the common practice of calendar time sampling inthat it leads to a further reduction in MSE. Using IBM transactiondata, I estimate a 2.5-minute optimal sampling frequency forRV in calendar time, which drops to about 12 seconds when afirst-order bias correction is applied. This results in a morethan 65% reduction in MSE. If, in addition, prices are sampledin transaction time, a further reduction of about 20% can beachieved.     

Portfolio analysis of intraday covariance matrix in the Greek equity market

The intraday nonparametric estimation of the variance–covariance matrix adds to the literature in portfolio analysis of the Greek equity market. This paper examines the economic value of various realized volatility and covariance estimators under the strategy of volatility timing. I use three types of portfolios: Global Minimum Variance, Capital Market Line and Capital Market Line with only positive weights. The estimators of volatilities and covariances use 5-min high-frequency intraday data. The dataset concerns the FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap index, FTSE/ATHEX Mid Cap index, and the FTSE/ATHEX Small Cap index of the Greek equity market (Athens Stock Exchange). As far as I know, this is the first work of its kind for the Greek equity market. Results concern not only the comparison of various estimators but also the comparison of different types of portfolios, in the strategy of volatility timing. The economic value of the contemporary non-parametric realized volatility estimators is more significant than this when the covariance is estimated by the daily squared returns. Moreover, the economic value (in b.p.s) of each estimator changes with the volatility timing.     

U.S. Airways merger: A strategic variance analysis of changes in post-merger performance

This case provides students the opportunity to apply strategic variance analysis (SVA) methodology in analyzing the performance changes realized in an airline merger. The U.S. Airways–America West merger provides an example of a complex, strategic action that simultaneously impacts firm size, unit pricing and costs, efficiency, and capacity for the combining airlines. This merger provides a rich example for the analysis since it combines U.S. Airways, a higher cost network airline that is geographically focused on the Eastern U.S., with America West, a low cost airline operating primarily along the Western U.S. The case includes merger and acquisition (M&A) theory discussing market power vs. efficiency motives for mergers and discusses the role of the U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission in evaluating M&As and their impact on markets. The case asks students to serve as consultants applying the SVA methodology to the past U.S. Airways–America West merger and provide conclusions.     

The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors’ stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market

This paper uses the perfect market segmentation setting in China's stock market to compare the information content of the stock trades of domestic and foreign investors. We study 76 firms that issue both A-shares (for domestic investors) and B-shares (for foreign investors) and compare the price discovery role of the two segmented markets in China. Before Feb 19, 2001, the A-share market led the B-share market in price discovery, as the signed volume and quote revision of the A-share market had strong predictive ability for B-share quote returns, but not vice versa. After Feb 19, 2001, because some domestic investors were allowed to invest in the B-share market, we find evidence for a reverse causality from the B-share to the A-share market. Nevertheless, the [Hasbrouck (1995). One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199.] information share analysis reveals that A-shares continue to dominate the price discovery process.     

A characterization of the distributions that imply existence of linear equilibria in the Kyle-model

The existence of a linear equilibrium in Kyle’s model of market making with multiple, symmetrically informed strategic traders is implied for any number of strategic traders if the joint distribution of the underlying exogenous random variables is elliptical. The reverse implication has been shown for the case in which the random variables are independent and have finite second moments. Here we extend this result to the case in which the underlying random variables are not necessarily independent and their joint distribution is determined by its moments. We thank two anonymous referees for their comments. Financial support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB-TR 15, is gratefully acknowledged.     

On the source of contrarian and momentum strategies in the Italian equity market

This paper investigates the source of momentum profits, while inferring the validity of the assumptions underlying rational and behavioural theories. Using a unique sample of securities listed in the Italian Stock Exchange from 1950 to 1995, we observe that buying better performing stocks in the previous 3-12 months and selling worse performing stocks over the same period yields significant profits in the short term (less than 1 year). Results also hold when conditioned upon different risk specifications. On the other hand, the continuation effect seems to significantly revert over a longer period. More importantly, in contrast with Conrad and Kaul [Rev. Financ. Stud. 11 (1998) 489], bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations show that momentum profits are more likely to be generated by stock returns time series properties rather than by their cross-sectional differences. While the overall findings cannot reject the market efficiency hypothesis, we argue that behavioural theory may be a possible “story” to interpret the continuation effect.     

An experimental approach to the effectiveness of an incentive system against moral hazard in the insurance market

Although traditional Japanese insurance theory has tended to assume the basic altruism of policyholders, this assumption may not be warranted. Many people might be opportunists rather than altruists. So in the actual insurance market, moral hazard may occur not accidentally but naturally. Without effective incentive mechanisms, policyholders may deviate from their original purpose. It is important to design penalties as negative incentives for the control and prevention of moral hazard. We test these propositions here by means of a game theory and questionnaire. The reason why we use a game theory and carry out the questionnaire is that it is not suitable to apply the econometric model to collect reliable data about moral hazard.     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

Stock and option market divergence in the presence of noisy information

We examine market behavior of the stock and option markets upon the arrival of noisy information in the form of CNBC’s Mad Money recommendations. If stock and option markets are not equally efficient, they should respond differently to noisy information, with the less efficient market more susceptible to noise. We find that the stock market is less efficient than the option market. The abnormal difference between option-implied and actual stock returns is negative and significant upon exposure to noisy information. This difference may yield an economically significant monthly trading profit of up to 5%. We conclude that the stock market is more susceptible to noisy information than the option market and is therefore less efficient.     

Robustness of the inference procedures for the global minimum variance portfolio weights in a skew-normal model

In this paper, we study the influence of skewness on the distributional properties of the estimated weights of optimal portfolios and on the corresponding inference procedures derived for the optimal portfolio weights assuming that the asset returns are normally distributed. It is shown that even a simple form of skewness in the asset returns can dramatically influence the performance of the test on the structure of the global minimum variance portfolio. The results obtained can be applied in the small sample case as well. Moreover, we introduce an estimation procedure for the parameters of the skew-normal distribution that is based on the modified method of moments. A goodness-of-fit test for the matrix variate closed skew-normal distribution has also been derived. In the empirical study, we apply our results to real data of several stocks included in the Dow Jones index.     

Pricing and supplier concentration in the private client segment of the audit market: Market power or competition?

This study differs from prior audit-pricing studies as (1) it focuses on the issue of price competition in the (small) private client segment of the audit market and (2) addresses the questions of whether and how the audit-pricing model changed in that market between 1989 and 1997. Given the significant increases in market concentration and two big audit firm mergers in that period, we try to assess whether price competition (market power) has increased (decreased) or decreased (increased). We use Belgian data on privately owned companies from 1989 and 1997 for our analyses. We find that audit fees are significantly associated with the incumbent auditor's market share both in 1989 and 1997. Our results are in line with prior studies on public client samples and hence do not support prior assumptions that there are no price premia charged by large auditors in the small client segment of the audit market. As to the evolution of audit pricing in the private client segment of the Belgian audit market between 1989 and 1997, we find that the impact of various audit fee determinants changed significantly and report evidence supportive of increased price competition.     

A minimum variance benchmark to measure the performance of pension funds in Mexico

We propose the use of the minimum variance portfolio as weighting method in a strategy benchmark for pension funds performance in Mexico. By performing three discrete event simulations with daily data from January 2002 to May 2013, we test this benchmark's weighting method against the Max Sharpe ratio one and a linear combination of both benchmarks (minimum variance and Max Sharpe). With the Sharpe ratio, the Jensen's alpha significance test and the Huberman and Kandel’ (1987) spanning test, we found that the three benchmarks have a statistically equal performance. By using Bailey's (1992) risk exposure, market representativeness and turnover benchmark quality criteria, we found that the min variance is preferable for the publicly traded Mexican defined contribution pension funds.     

Information content of earnings announcements in the New Zealand equity market,a longitudinal analysis

We compute abnormal return variance and abnormal trading volume in the 3‐day window surrounding earnings announcements to examine the information content of earnings announcements in the New Zealand equity market over the past 16 years. We find that the information content of earnings announcements has increased significantly over time, and this finding holds true for both interim and preliminary earnings announcements. We find evidence that earnings announcements with June year‐ends exhibit a higher level of information content and experience a more pronounced rising trend as compared to earnings announcements with non‐June year‐ends. Several firm characteristics appear to relate to the level of the information content of earnings announcements as well as to compound the trend over time. We document an important finding that the information content of earnings announcements increases remarkably in the period after the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).     

A comparison of value relevance of accounting information in different segments of the Chinese stock market

This paper investigates the difference in the value relevance between the accounting information prepared and audited under the Chinese GAAP for A-share investors and under the international accounting standards (IAS) for B-share investors in the Chinese stock market. The study reports three primary findings. First, accounting information influences the pricing process in both the A-share market and the B-share market. Second, the accounting information in the B-share market is more value relevant than that in the A-share market, as expected. Finally, the value relevance level of accounting information in the A-share market was low in earlier years, peaked in 1996, and then decreased due to changes in the disclosure environment. However, the value-relevance level of accounting information in the B-share market had no substantial changes. Using a constant sample, control variables on firm features, and measures of traders' behavior, we obtain robust results. These findings have implications for policymakers on recent moves toward replacing local GAAP with the IAS.     

Integrated Covariance Estimation using High-frequency Data in the Presence of Noise

We analyze the effects of nonsynchronicity and market microstructurenoise on realized covariance type estimators. Hayashi and Yoshida(2005) propose a simple estimator that resolves the problemof nonsynchronicity and is unbiased and consistent for the integratedcovariance in the absence of noise. When noise is present, however,we find that this estimator is biased, and show how the biascan be corrected for. Ultimately, we propose a subsampling versionof the bias-corrected estimator which improves its efficiency.Empirically, we find that the usual assumption of a martingaleprice process plus an independently and identically distributed(i.i.d.) noise does not describe the dynamics of the observedprice process across stocks, which confirms the practical relevanceof our general noise specification and the estimation techniqueswe propose. Finally, a simulation experiment is carried outto complement the theoretical results.     

The outperformance of family firms: the role of variance in earnings per share and analyst forecast dispersion on the Swiss market

Recent studies provide empirical evidence that family firms are outperforming their non-family counterparts in terms of stock market performance. For the Swiss stock market we find that family firms indeed outperform their non-family counterparts after controlling for firm size and beta. In addition, our data shows that family firms display more stable earnings per share in contrast to their non-family counterparts. Furthermore we find that the variance of earnings per share positively affects analyst forecast dispersion. According to anomaly literature, lower analyst forecast dispersion has been found to induce higher excess return, which our data supports for the Swiss stock market. By linking variance of earnings per share, analyst forecast dispersion and stock performance we provide an insightful explanation for the excess stock market returns of family firms. In addition, our text extends the theory of dispersion effect with an additional empirical element, the variance of earnings per share.