户籍政策与人口城市化

分析了户籍政策的形成背景及特殊意义,指出尽管户籍政策对城市化发展存在一定的阻碍作用,但因其涉及方方面面的问题,不可能在短期内被取消.据此提出了现阶段我国城市化发展的新思路:不再过分强调人口向城市聚集,代之先进要素向城市聚集;在农村和欠发达地区则以职业转换取代空间转换,或采取人口迁移的反梯度政策,走先发展经济,后进行人口空间聚集的农村城市化之路.     

The paradox of China's growing under-urbanization

It is commonly believed that China began the socialist era as a very under-urbanized country relative to its level of development and that it has been eliminating this urbanization gap during the post-1978 period as a result of its economic reforms. Our reexamination of the relationship between per capita income and urbanization that underpins the conventional view suggests that China was not under-urbanized before or during the early period of the reform. Actually, China's urbanization gap appeared and grew in the late period of reform despite mass migration from rural to urban areas. This growing urbanization lag is mainly due to the slow pace in eliminating restrictions on rural–urban migration during a period of rapid economic growth. We call attention to this emerging urbanization lag as it entails significant economic costs in employment and retards economic growth.     

The effect of agricultural price-support policies on interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea: 1976-1980

The impact of rice price-support policies, designed to increase farmers' income and reduce rural-urban migration in the Republic of Korea, is examined for the period 1976-1980 using a polytomous logistic model. "Our findings revealed that the elasticity of migration with respect to rice yield per origin farm household is positive and is significantly different from zero. The elasticities of migration with respect to rate of urbanization, particularly urban concentration-agglomeration, and population size of the destination are also positive and are significantly different from zero....Our findings questioned the wisdom of employing rice price price-support programs as a viable policy for reducing interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea."     

大城市户籍应该逐步放开

国家“十五”期间实施城市化战略。要推进城市化进程首要的是增加城市人口 ,有计划地减少农村人口。如何在经济社会可持续发展的同时 ,解决好几亿农民从农村到城镇的地域流动 ,是中国跨世纪城市化发展的重大问题。它的成功解决首要的是大城市和特大城市户籍制度改革。本文提出相关政策 :将户籍管理制度转变为户籍登记制度 ;建立城乡统一户口登记制度 ;积极调整户口迁移政策 ;取消城市保护就业措施 ;和逐步放开大城市户籍管理。     

基于城乡统筹的苏南地区现代农村发展策略——以无锡市滨湖区为例

传统"苏南模式"促进了苏南地区乡村经济的发展和城镇化进程,但在城镇化加速推进的背景下,制度缺陷使得传统模式面临空间和效率的多重困境,城乡统筹的需求和动力愈发显著.以资源配置效率提升和利益主体能动性发挥为切入点,分析了城乡统筹发展的路径选择及具体思路,并以无锡市滨湖区为例,提出基于统筹城乡产业与空间的现代农村发展策略及其具体的操作模式.     

城镇化发展的“差异化”路径研究——以广东省为例

改革开放以来,受区位条件、资源禀赋、政策措施的影响,我国的东、中、西部区域城镇化发展呈现明显的梯度差异,针对不同发展阶段的地区实施不同的城镇化政策已成为共识.本文以广东省为例,针对不同发展阶段的城市,划分不同类型的政策地区,从各类地区的现状特征与发展挑战入手,探讨“差异性”的城镇化发展路径,为未来具有操作性的城镇化政策...     

Cross-national tests of a third world development-migration paradigm: With particular attention to Venezuela

This paper amplifies a conceptual framework relating internal migration and development processes. This is first done by a cross-national comparison of regression parameters from interregional migration studies often different countries. Attention then turns to parallel analyses of interstate migration in Venezuela for three different time periods representing, approximately, 1940–1950, 1950–1960, and 1966–1971. These cross-national and temporal comparisons support the hypothesis that development systematically affects the role of distance separating origins and destinations, and of spatial differentials in urbanization levels, wages, unemployment, and education.     

Dynamic control of rural–urban migration

This study investigates the optimal urbanization control of an underdeveloped economy by specifying a simple dynamic rural–urban model in which the urban sector bears both an intertemporal positive externality and a simultaneous negative externality. The dynamic optimization problem is solved for the political intervention of the central government in an intersectoral population distribution with taxes and subsidies. Our analysis provides the following results: (i) a big-push policy that leads an economy to a higher-income steady state with urbanization is not necessarily desirable if the government cannot borrow money at a sufficiently low interest rate; (ii) in order to sustain an appropriate urbanization speed, urbanization control policy should have a switch: the urban sector should be subsidized in order to accelerate rural–urban migration in early stages of development, and taxed to decelerate and eventually cease the migration in later stages.     

Household migration: theoretical and empirical results

A consumption theory of migration is developed which supplements the traditional job search models. Migration, seen as an equilibrating reaction to an initially non-optimal location, is analyzed using standard demand theory. When one groups goods into those that are traded between areas and those that are not (weather, racial discrimination, crime rates, etc.) it is clear that only changing demands for the non-traded goods will result in changing optimal locations (assuming supplies are fixed). Illustrating, an increase in family income might lead to an increased demand for the non-traded good “personal safety.” This might result, for example, in the substitution (through migration) of a lower crime suburban neighborhood for a higher crime central city neighborhood.An empirically testable implication of the model is that the probability of migration should be positively related to changes in the absolute value of those exogenous variables which lead to altered demands for non-traded goods. This and other hypotheses were examined using cross-sectional data in a nonlinear maximum likelihood (probit) regression analysis. The results strongly support the model and its implications.     

Dynamic control of rural–urban migration

This study investigates the optimal urbanization control of an underdeveloped economy by specifying a simple dynamic rural–urban model in which the urban sector bears both an intertemporal positive externality and a simultaneous negative externality. The dynamic optimization problem is solved for the political intervention of the central government in an intersectoral population distribution with taxes and subsidies. Our analysis provides the following results: (i) a big-push policy that leads an economy to a higher-income steady state with urbanization is not necessarily desirable if the government cannot borrow money at a sufficiently low interest rate; (ii) in order to sustain an appropriate urbanization speed, urbanization control policy should have a switch: the urban sector should be subsidized in order to accelerate rural–urban migration in early stages of development, and taxed to decelerate and eventually cease the migration in later stages.     

农村人口城市化与农业产业化

农村人口城市化是社会发展的必然规律,农村人口城市化问题已经成为制约我国国民经济持续健康增长的重要因素.我国目前农村人口城市化的两种主要途径——农村剩余劳动力进入当地小城镇从事乡镇企业或从事商业服务业以及进入大中城市从事传统行业,并没有很好地解决我国农村人口城市化的问题;应该在深挖这两种途径的潜力的同时,积极探索其他有效途径;以土地集中经营为基础的农业产业化是解决我国目前农村人口城市化问题的一条重要途径.     

美国都市空间蔓延中的城乡冲突与统筹

20世纪后半叶美国等西方国家经历了逆城市化和都市蔓延,分散开发建设模式致使大量的农田被侵蚀,农业生产用地和产业链的连续性遭到破坏.由于传统规划在理念和技术方法上都无法应对这一问题,所以在这一背景下一些政府和学者展开了建设开发和农业保护的城乡统筹研究.首先对城乡冲突的问题和传统规划的缺陷进行分析,然后对地块开发引导、开发权转让等城乡统筹的主要技术手段进行描述,并针对我国的城乡发展和规划问题进行剖析.通过对美国城乡统筹的研究,力求为我国目前城市化快速发展时期的城乡问题提供参考和借鉴.     

就业能力对农民工城市居留意愿的影响——以上海市为例

就业是民生之本,提升就业能力可为改善农民工的城市生存发展处境提供基础性条件,进而影响其城市居留意愿。本文基于对上海市1026份农民工的问卷调查,应用Logistic回归分析,考察这一群体就业能力因素对于其城市长期居留意愿的影响。研究发现,就业能力的五个核心指标中教育程度、就业服务享有、社会网络以及职业类型显著影响农民工的城市居留意愿,而工会参与因素影响不显著;传统变量中只有婚姻状况通过显著性检验。研究显示,适恰的就业能力支持政策将既有助于农民工,尤其是新生代农民工的城市职业发展,也有利于提高其留城意愿、促进我国持续稳定的城市化。     

以西安市为例看我国郊区城市化

郊区城市化就是人口、就业岗位和服务业从大城市中心区向郊区迁移的一种离心扩散过程,它是城市化发展的必经阶段。本文以西安为例,从自然、社会经济等方面进行分析,提出了西安在郊区化过程中出现的问题,有针对性的提出了对策。     

首都经济圈城市化质量测度

引进阿特金森模型,构建了首都经济圈城市化发展质量的分要素测度模型和分段测度模型,对首都经济圈城市化发展质量的阶段性特征、空间分异特征、分类特征、协调性特征做了总体评价。研究发现,2009年首都经济圈处于城市化发展质量优化和提升阶段;首都经济圈城市化发展质量在空间上呈现出中部京津唐地区最高,南部石家庄、邯郸地区次之,北部张承地区及保定、衡水地区最低的态势;京津地区经济、社会城市化发展质量高于河北省的11个地级市,而空间城市化保障质量相对河北省各地级市较弱;北京市、天津市为城市化质量滞后型区域,环首都经济圈的承德市、廊坊市、保定市、沧州市为城市化速度滞后型区域,其余地市为城市化协调型区域。     

甘肃省农村城镇化发展现状及对策探讨

农村城镇化是深化农村改革,加快农村产业结构调整,培育和发展农村市场,推进农村城市化、现代化、社会化进程,缩小城乡差别的一项战略措施。本文分析了甘肃省农村城镇化发展的现状,探讨了加快甘肃省农村城镇化进程的基本对策及建议。     

日本城市蔓延及治理

日本在二战后经历了高速经济增长和快速城市化,出现了城市蔓延现象.在日本,城市蔓延一般是指缺少公共服务地、向邻近非城市区域弥漫式扩展,这种开发模式是地方政府在实施城市规划中对发展的企业、土地持有者和中央政府等做出让步的结果,并产生了高额社会成本、财政成本和土地成本.虽然日本城市规划者将土地重整视为城市规划之母和抑制城市蔓延的有效手段,但并未达到预期效果.最近日本政府提出建设紧凑城市的政策,旨在降低小汽车依赖性和重新繁荣市中心以应对不断减少的人口和快速老龄化.     

基于PVAR模型的流通业对城乡收入差距影响研究——以江苏为例

文章选取江苏13市2005~2017年的统计数据,建立PVAR模型,重点分析了流通业发展、城镇化及其控制变量对城乡收入差距的影响程度。研究结果表明江苏城镇化与流通业总值和结构之间存在持续显著的正向促进作用;城镇化、流通业发展有助于缩小城乡收入差距;控制变量中,外商直接投资、产业结构的影响显著。因此,在提高城镇化水平、促进流通业协调发展、缩小城乡收入差距的同时,也需要加强外资引进力度、优化产业结构。     

政府行为对农民工市民化的影响研究——基于博弈论视角

通过构建中央政府、地方政府、农民工三个主体三阶段的完全信息动态博弈模型,对农民工市民化进程中的政府行为与个人行为进行博弈分析,发现不同地区不同时期的博弈均衡解是不同的,博弈均衡(阻碍,阻碍,不成为市民)在我国长期占主导地位,从而导致了农民工市民化进程缓慢。农民工市民化发展缓慢的直接原因是中央政府、地方政府和农民工三个主体利益的不一致,根本原因却是财政分权背景下中央政府与地方政府的财权和事权的严重不对等以及中央政府对地方政府以GDP为核心的政绩考核方式。     

Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece

Residential mobility is a key dimension of population dynamics shaping urban growth and rural development at different spatio-temporal scales. Assuming spatial mobility as increasingly dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of local contexts, the present study investigates long-term and short-term population movements in a European country (Greece), in light of regional urbanization processes and socioeconomic development. A multidimensional analysis of indicators of residential stability and background variables was carried out with the aim at evaluating the influence of local contexts on more general processes of population mobility. Different typologies of spatial mobility associated to factors (directly or indirectly) dependent on demographic dynamics, economic performances and urban cycles were identified. The empirical findings of this study evidence (more or less traditional) paths of internal migration and a latent process of population relocation across metropolitan regions, together with more recent international migrations at both working and retirement age. While short-range population movements were the ultimate result of late suburbanization in Greece, medium- and broad-range mobility consolidated the country's divide in urban and rural areas, evidencing the attractive role of Athens. Spatial direction and intensity of population movements reflect complex socioeconomic transformations, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for a better understanding of future demographic dynamics in Mediterranean Europe.