中国制造业贸易的要素含量:中间产品贸易对测算的影响

本文从理论上指出,传统计算贸易要素含量的方法不适用于加工贸易比重较大的发展中国家,并提出了区分中间产品贸易和最终产品贸易的改进计算方法。通过传统方法计算中国制造业1997年、2002年和2007年贸易的要素含量,发现中国的要素贸易情况符合比较优势理论,并且贸易开放后中国制造业技术水平不断提高,熟练工人密集度显著提高。用区分中间产品贸易和最终产品贸易的方法计算2002年中国制造业贸易的要素含量,发现加工贸易企业与非加工贸易企业生产技术差异很大,忽略中间产品贸易的传统计算方法会造成中国制造业要素净出口的严重高估。     

FDI对国际贸易的影响：来自中国的证据

本文利用2003~2006年的面板数据检验了我国外向与内向FDI存量与进出口贸易之间的关系。通过实证分析发现:我国的外向FDI与进出口均存在互补关系,因此外向FDI具有贸易创造效应,其中又以出口创造效应为甚,从而使我国的外向FDI具有"净出口"效应;而内向FDI与进出口的关系都不显著。     

Home country bias in international emissions trading: Evidence from the EU ETS

We examine the pattern of allowance trades in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) using highly disaggregated trading data and identify a significant and robust home market bias. Our results point to informational transactions costs that increase when trading across national borders. The existing trade pattern in goods and services explains two thirds of the home bias, with the remainder due to other causes. Our finding suggests that firms make use of existing trade networks to overcome search costs in bilateral allowance trade. Since the home bias differs across firms, it follows that marginal abatement costs are not equalized across market participants of the EU ETS.     

Trade in the enlarged European Union: a new approach on trade potential

This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed effects to capture bilateral trade specificities between country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.     

Trade in trash: A political economy approach

We study how the opportunity to trade in trash might influence the equilibrium outcome when the tax on the externality is determined by a political economy process. In our model, individuals have heterogeneous preferences for environmental quality, and there is a wastage of real resources when funds are transferred from the pressure groups to the politicians. When hard-core environmentalists and capitalists are organized interest groups while moderate environmentalists are not organized, we find that the politically chosen tax on the externality is below the optimal Pigouvian level. The opportunity to export waste in unlimited quantities, but at a price, is not the environmentalists’ panacea and does not eliminate political social tension and suboptimal results.     

RTAs:中国进一步扩大对外经贸合作的新途径

20世纪90年代尤其是世界贸易组织建立和运作以来,区域贸易安排迅猛发展,呈现出许多新的特点.在经济全球化和中国已加入世界贸易组织的新形势下,中国积极参与和推进区域贸易安排是在更大范围、更广领域和更高层次上参与国际经济技术合作与竞争、以开放促改革促发展的新途径.应进一步加强区域贸易安排的研究,建立国家区域贸易安排运作机制,制定切实可行的区域贸易安排计划,以提升中国经济的竞争力,迎接世界区域贸易安排发展带来的机遇和挑战.     

Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis

The paper quantifies the most likely trade effects of the exceptional cases of the GATT/WTO system, namely, Regional Integration Agreements, on the selected member as well as non-member countries of the EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR and AFTA. To this end, the gravity model was estimated through fixed effects model and panel cointegration analysis. It was found that the explanatory power of the latter has superseded the former one. For the case of EU, it was found that the intra-union trade-creation effect is approximately six times larger than extra-union effects. In NAFTA, exports to outside countries are significantly diverted. For MERCOSUR, on the other hand, results indicate that the integration has not contributed to intra-union trade. The members are still significantly dependent on extra-union imports, just like the members of AFTA.     

技术进步与技术贸易壁垒的跨越:基于模仿视角的分析

外国技术贸易壁垒对我国出口的稳定增长产生了很大的负面影响,因此,如何突破技术贸易壁垒是我国面临的一个重要问题.尽管许多研究提出我国应该依靠科技进步提高本国产品的技术含量从而跨越这一技术壁垒,但此类政策建议尚缺乏理论依据.为此本文将技术模仿因素引入包含商品连续统的动态李嘉图模型,从理论层面证明了提高技术模仿率在技术进步中的重要作用及对我国进入技术含量和质量标准更高的产品生产领域、跨越发达国家的技术贸易壁垒的积极影响.     

美国对华出口管制与美对华贸易逆差:实质与对策

本文运用实证分析方法,对美国对华技术出口管制的历史和现状进行较为系统、深入的分析研究．指出美国对华技术出口管制是造成美对华贸易逆差的主要原因;并就促进美国对华技术出口、实现中美贸易平衡问题,提出了对策和建议。     

A decomposition approach to analysing racial and gender biases in Farm Service Agency's lending decisions

This study provides a different perspective in revisiting the racial and gender discrimination issue at the Farm Service Agency (FSA). Employing the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition method, this study analyses disparities in approved loan amounts among racial and gender classes of borrowers. This study's results indicate substantial differentials in approved loan amount gaps between racial and gender classes, favouring white and female borrowers, respectively. Further scrutiny of the borrowers’ comparative financial conditions presented to FSA to support their loan applications, however, indicate that these borrower groups significantly dominate their peers in a number of measures that indicate their financial strengths and relatively greater capability to repay their future lending obligations. Hence, this study's results can hardly be construed as evidence of biased lending decisions as these borrower groups should rightfully be offered more favourable loan terms, such as larger loan amounts, by the FSA.     

我国区际技术性贸易壁垒的成因与管治探讨

地方政府作为利益主体、经济主体、管理主体是我国区际贸易技术性壁垒产生的主要原因。产品市场准人机制的统一、市场质量监管的统一、技术服务网络的统一是克服区际贸易技术性壁垒,加速区域市场一体化,进而达到全国市场一体化的根本途径。     

欧美和中国对技术性贸易壁垒的研究综述

鉴于技术性贸易壁垒对世界经济和国际贸易的重要影响,各国学者都对技术性贸易壁垒问题进行了大量研究,并取得了丰硕的成果,这为相关国家和地区的政策制定提供了很好的决策参考。欧美发达国家是技术性贸易壁垒的发祥地,也最早从事技术性贸易壁垒研究。早在19世纪60年代,欧共体就意识到技术性贸易壁垒对国际贸易的限制作用,并于1969年制定了《消除商品贸易中技术性壁垒的一般性纲领》,第一次提出了在国际贸易中制定技术性贸易壁垒的贸易规则。美国随之向GATT建议拟定关于技术性贸易壁垒的协议。我国虽然遭遇技术性贸易壁垒的案例早已有之,但…     

Trade,Job Losses and Gender: A Policy Perspective

This paper presents a gender perspective of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program. The TAA is the primary US policy to assist the transition of workers displaced due to trade related economic restructuring. In comparison to the relatively substantial research on gendering trade policies in developing economies there is very limited focus on gendering policy responses to trade in the US. We argue that there is a specific gender trend in the trade-displacement patterns in the US which calls for a gender sensitive policy response. We examine the TAA in light of this trend and offer some suggestions for a gendered approach to providing assistance to workers negotiating an increasingly flexible global labor market.

A consumption-based approach to environmental Kuznets curves using the ecological footprint indicator

Recent research suggests that consumption-based measures offer an insightful perspective on the debate on the relationship between economic growth and the environment. In this article we deepen the consumption-based line of inquiry by investigating the empirical evidence in support of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis using 2001 ecological footprint data for 141 countries. We perform Ordinary Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares analysis on linear, quadratic and cubic functions, in standard and logarithmic specifications, as candidate models to represent the relationship between per capita income and environmental pressure. We replicate the cross country analysis also by estimating the regression function directly, through a nonparametric regression. In our analyses, with and without weighing data by population, the results do not show evidence of de-linking.     

New Powers and the Distribution of Preferences in Global Trade Governance: From Deadlock and Drift to Fragmentation

ABSTRACT

Existing theories make divergent predictions about the impact of new powers on the global political economy. Some argue that a more even distribution of power will erode international cooperation, while others argue that cooperation can continue with the help of international institutions to overcome collective action problems. We argue that this debate overlooks a critical determinant of the shape of power transitions: the distribution of preferences amongst the major powers. It is primarily in the context of divergent preferences that power transitions are likely to give rise to conflict. Moreover, even where preferences diverge, the gains of cooperation provide a strong incentive to continue to pursue goals through multilateralism. This situation leads to forms of institutional change unanticipated by established theories. These include deadlock in expansive multilateral fora, institutional drift as old rules cannot keep up with the changing political and economic context, and fragmentation as countries seek minilateral solutions that reduce preference diversity. We develop this preference-based, institutional argument by examining the distribution of preferences and institutional change at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its Doha Round, where the power transition is relatively advanced.     

Trade liberalization in the presence of domestic regulations: public policies applied to EU and U.S. wine markets

Wine is the highest valued product in the agricultural, food, and beverage sector traded between the United States and the European Union (EU) and wine faces a range of tariffs that are differentiated by country and product category. In addition, the production of wine grapes is heavily regulated within the EU and there are complicated state-level policies in the United States designed to limit the retail availability of wine. There continues to be economic and political pressure for reform to the tariffs between the United States and the EU, and to the domestic regulations in each region. We carefully develop parameters to characterize the effects of tariffs and domestic regulations that affect production and consumption of wine in the two regions. Simulation results show that reductions in tariffs would have relatively small effects in EU and U.S. wine markets, whereas reductions in EU domestic policies that affect wine grape production would have much larger trade and welfare implications.     

A theory of self-selection in a market with matching frictions: An application to delay in refereeing times in economics journals

A matching market with imperfect information is studied. With imperfect information, it is shown that friction in a meeting process can facilitate self-selection and thus may improve the matching outcome. As an application, the effect of delay in refereeing time on publication outcome is analyzed in a publication process in economics journals. Though the delay causes efficiency loss by postponing the dissemination of new research, it will better sort the papers to each journal by their qualities by preventing mediocre papers from being submitted to a prestigious journal and published by luck. If an assortative outcome (good papers in prestigious journals and mediocre papers in less prestigious journals) is efficient, the delay may actually improve the publication outcome. Other matching market examples are also discussed.     

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

从分散竞争到适度集中的寡头主导--我国注册会计师行业组织优化选择

针对当前我国注册会计师行业出现的过度分散化竞争状况,从研究其引致的规模经济效益丧失等负面经济后果出发,从挂靠制度和退出壁垒两方面深入剖析了造成这种过度分散竞争状况的原因,并且结合微观经济学市场结构理论,提出了建立适度集中的寡头主导型产业结构是我国注册会计师行业组织优化的模式选择。     

Eliciting Willingness to Pay without Bias using Follow-up Certainty Statements: Comparisons between Probably/Definitely and a 10-point Certainty Scale

Correction for hypothetical bias using follow up certainty questions often takes one of two forms: (1) two options, “definitely sure” and “probably sure”, or (2) a 10-point scale with 10 very certain. While both have been successful in eliminating hypothetical bias from estimates of WTP by calibrating based on the certainty of yes responses, little is known about the relationship between the two. The purpose of this paper is to compare the two using data from three field experiments in a private good, dichotomous choice format. We compare four types of yes responses that differ in the criterion used to determine if there is sufficient certainty for a hypothetical yes response to be considered a true yes response. We make several comparisons, but focus on determining which values on the 10-point scale give the same estimates of WTP as “definitely sure” hypothetical yeses and real yeses (actual purchases). Values that produce equivalence are near 10 on the certainty scale.