基于生态足迹分析的泰顺县可持续发展状况研究

文章基于泰顺县2011—2015年统计年鉴数据测算该县这5年来人均生态足迹,同时预测该县2020年生态足迹及生态承载力以对其可持续发展状况进行评价。结果表明:(1)泰顺县2011—2015年总人均生态足迹介于0.318 3～0.392 4 hm2/cap,整体呈现"先增后减再增"的变化趋势,耕地和草地是人均生态足迹的最大组成部分;(2)2020年泰顺县预测总人均生态足迹为0.441 1 hm2/cap,2016—2020年总人均生态足迹呈现"持续增长"的变化趋势,草地对人均生态足迹贡献量最大且持续增长,耕地贡献量逐渐降低,化石能源用地贡献量逐渐增大;(3)2020年泰顺县表现为生态盈余,人均生态盈余指数为0.179 6 hm2/cap。泰顺县社会经济压力对于生态环境的冲击力较小,土地利用仍能维持当地可持续发展。     

基于国家生态足迹账户计算方法的福州市生态足迹研究

运用国家生态足迹账户(NFA)计算方法(2010版),计算并分析2000～2009年福州市的生态足迹和生态承载力,旨在展示国外生态足迹计算方法研究最新进展,更准确地揭示近年福州市的生态足迹和生态承载力状况。结果表明:2000～2009年福州人均生态足迹持续快速增长,由1.3118gha增至2.3906gha;人均生态承载力持续下降,由0.5480gha降为0.5057gha;生态赤字持续快速扩大,支撑经济发展由需要2.39个变为需要4.73个福州的生态承载力;碳吸收地在生态足迹结构中始终占据首位且呈快速扩大趋势,是福州生态赤字的主导因素;生态效率变化呈"S"形,目前福州生态效率高于福建省或我国平均水平,但低于世界平均水平,更远低于主要发达国家。     

基于能值生态足迹模型的鄂西生态文化旅游圈可持续发展研究

可持续发展是21世纪人类的核心共识。为了定量测度鄂西生态文化旅游圈的可持续发展状态,并提供决策依据与参考,研究基于能值生态足迹模型,对鄂西生态文化旅游圈进行了定量评价。研究结果表明:(1)2000~2012年,鄂西生态文化旅游圈生态足迹呈上升趋势,由3.8714 hm2/cap上升为4.4279 hm2/cap,年均增长1.22%;(2)人均生态赤字整体趋势为逐年增加,从-3.6146 hm2/cap增加为-4.2206 hm2/cap,年均增长1.42%;(3)鄂西生态文化旅游圈人均生态承载力变化幅度较小。     

基于全球公顷与国家公顷的县域生态足迹评估比较

采用全球公顷法(gha)和国家公顷法(nha)对广西兴安县2016年的生态足迹、生态承载力进行计算,基于计算结果比较分析了两种方法在核算县域生态足迹时的差异。并基于国家公顷法,探索均衡因子、平均产量对计算结果的影响。研究结果表明:采用gha和nha的生态足迹计算结果分别为2.787 19 hm2/cap、1.680 25 hm2/cap;采用不同的均衡因子计算时,生态赤字最大值是最小值的11倍;采用较远年份平均产量为参数计算的当年生态足迹远高于采用当年平均产量的计算结果。因此提出将生态足迹模型应用于县域生态足迹评估的建议:(1)采用全球公顷法计算县域生态足迹会夸大结果产生较大误差,无法精确反映该地区的生态系统负荷,因而在计算县域生态足迹时,推荐使用国家公顷法。(2)使用当年的平均产量数据,并使用不同的均衡因子计算比较,以提高计算结果的精确性与可信度。     

基于ARIMA模型的甘肃省生态足迹预测研究

生态足迹模型是一种可以有效度量可持续发展的方法,从提出以来备受人们的关注。将生态足迹模型与ARIMA模型相结合,采用不同的均衡因子,以甘肃省为例,模拟和分析了1985~2012年以来的甘肃省生态足迹,并且在此基础上预测了5年的人均生态足迹。结果表明:人均生态足迹由1.0121hm~2/人快速增长到3.2685 hm~2/人,而生态承载力增长缓慢,导致生态赤字不断增加。预测到2017年时,人均生态足迹达到4.0752hm~2/人,甘肃省的发展处在不可持续状态下,应该引起足够的重视。     

基于能值生态足迹和生态效率的贵州省可持续发展评价

利用能值生态足迹模型以及绿色GDP核算初步评价了贵州省2000—2017年可持续发展状况,并选取已经扣除了非期望产出的绿色GDP作为产出指标测算贵州省生态效率,进一步评价其可持续发展水平。研究结果表明:(1)贵州省人均能值生态承载力较稳定,无较大波动;人均能值生态足迹呈现不断上涨的趋势;研究期间贵州省始终处于生态赤字状态;六种生态生产性土地中,化石燃料用地和耕地对生态足迹的贡献度最大。(2)贵州省绿色GDP的增长速度远低于GDP的增长速度,绿色GDP在传统GDP中的占比呈不断下降的趋势,不可更新资源产品的消耗量大是主要原因。(3)DEA结果显示,2000—2017年,有7个年份是DEA有效,DEA无效年份资本投入和劳动力投入存在冗余,投入和产出未达到最佳状态。     

环青海湖区域生态足迹的动态测度与分析

运用生态足迹理论和模型,对西部大开发以来环青海湖地区4个县2000～2008年的生态足迹、生态承载力以及生态足迹多样性与发展能力进行了计算,并与青海省总体水平进行比较.结果表明:近年来,环青海湖地区人均生态足迹呈现不断增长的趋势,大于人均生态承载力的增长,出现生态赤字:万元GDP生态足迹不断下降,但生态足迹多样性不足;环青海湖四县在生态足迹与生态承载力方面差异极大.针对目前的情况,提出了因地制宜调整产业结构、发展低碳经济和推进城镇化等实现环青海湖地区可持续发展的对策建议.     

生态

我国生态承载力增加 生态赤字扩大 记者从11月15日召开的“中国生态足迹报告2010”发布会上获悉：2005～2008年，中国生态足迹增长速率较之前五年总体有所放缓，生物承载力持续增加。然而，对于中国这样一个人均生态资源稀缺、处于经济快速发展的发展中国家，生态足迹增加的速度远高于生物承载力的增长速度，生态赤字在逐年扩大。     

基于改进生态足迹模型的耕地可持续利用研究———以怀来县为例

在总结以往生态足迹分析方法的基础上,提出了耕地可持续利用指数(CUSI),为定量评估耕地利用可持续发展状况提供了新的研究思路。以怀来县为例,研究结果表明:(1)1996～2008年间人均耕地生态足迹、生态足迹分别增加了0.0274hm2和0.1404hm2,耕地生态承载力则下降了0.1130hm2,耕地生态赤字增加说明耕地消耗量大于耕地供给量,耕地资源利用处于不可持续状况。耕地利用可持续程度由1996年的弱可持续阶段(0.01)向2008年的中等不可持续阶段(-0.31)发展。(2)通过对怀来县2011～2020年耕地生态足迹和生态承载力预测可知,到2020年该县人均耕地生态足迹、生态承载力分别为0.4821hm2、0.1387hm2,耕地生态赤字将达到0.3434hm2;CUSI为-0.55表明耕地利用处于强不可持续阶段,耕地保护形势不容乐观。     

基于生态足迹的城市可持续性评价——以济宁市为例

本研究在生态足迹理论模型的基础上,以济宁市统计年鉴数据为依据,对济宁市1996～2005年的生态足迹进行了分析和评价。结果表明,济宁市人均生态足迹需求日趋增大,生态承载力逐步减小,到2005年人均生态赤字已达4.757hm^2,反映出济宁市对生物生产性土地面积的需求远远大于区域内生态环境的承载能力,处于不可持续的发展状态。此外,利用灰色预测模型对济宁市2006～2010年人均生态足迹与生态承载力进行了预测,预测结果表明,2010年人均生态赤字将达到8.8852hm^2。最后,针对以上情况,提出了相应对策。     

Quantitative evaluation of sustainable development based on ecological footprint method: a case study of Tianjin

Since the concept of sustainable development emerged in the late 1980s, more and more countries and regions have been utilizing sustainable development as their developing strategy. But decades have passed without any effective methods available to quantitatively assess sustainable development, Since the ecological footprint evaluation method initiated in 1992, it has become popular in quantitative assessment of sustainable development because of its convenience, easy-understanding, and reliability. As one of the biggest coastal cities in north China and the economic center of the Bohai Coastal Region, Tianjin's gross domestic product (GDP) was 369.762 billion yuan in 2005, accounting for 2.0% of the whole nation's GDP The paper analyzes Tianjin's development with the ecological footprint method, and the results show that Tianjin's ecological footprint and biocapacity in 2005 were 2. 507gha/cap and 0.276gha/cap respectively. The ecological deficit was 2.230gha/cap. And from 1980 to 2005, Tianjin's ecological deficit per 104 yuan GDP decreased; while per capita ecological deficit has been tending to increase rapidly in recent years. All these results demonstrate that Tianjin is in a state of unsustainable development.     

Beyond “more is better”: Ecological footprint accounting for tourism and consumption in Val di Merse,Italy

Habits of conservation, consumption and recycling are important determinants of economic throughput. Provincial governments interested in tourism's role in a diverse, steady-state economy may wish to orient tourism development around the tourist segments with less intensive consumption habits. We estimate consumption of energy and materials by tourists vacationing in Val di Merse, a rural region of Tuscany, Italy. We compare tourists and their host population by means of a consumption based indicator, the Ecological Footprint. Conclusions for planning and management are explored. While the average tourist is often thought to consume more on vacation than at home, and often more than local residents, our estimate of the tourist footprint as an equivalent resident (5.28 gha) is similar to that estimated for residents (5.47 gha), excluding arrival transport. In total, the tourist population (685 equivalent residents) in Val di Merse contributes an ecological footprint of 13,500 gha annually, compared to 74,500 gha due to local residents (pop. 13,624). Both levels are lower than the average 6.74 EF estimated for the tourist countries of origin. Arrival transport contributes an additional 32.8 gha per tourist equivalent resident, and accounts for 86% of the total tourism impact. Infrastructure, information provided, and traditional knowledge are discussed as possible ways Provincial governments can maintain or grow tourism flows while maintaining low ecological footprint, and while raising economic turnover relative to material and energy throughput.     

Evaluating the effects of embodied energy in international trade on ecological footprint in China

Based on sub-sectoral level of economy and detailed traded items, embodied energy (EE) in international trade flow in China is estimated during 1996-2004, and the effects of EE on sustainability are quantified by using one of the most popular indicators—Ecological footprint (EF). A framework of EF method, which is more relevant to realism of specific country, is proposed in this paper. The results show that China is a net importer of EE during the period covered by this study except for the year from 1997 to 1999. Imported, Exported and Net imported EE tends to increase sharply along time series. Net imported energy would increase 38% and energy consumption would increase 2.8% in 2004 if EE were taken into account. Footprint_energy is the most important part of EF components and is significantly affected by EE, and the effects of EE on EF are similar to that of Footprint_energy. Footprint_energy, EF and ecological deficit of 2004 will be underestimated about 2.92%, 1.36%, 2.83%, res pectively, if EE is not taken into the national energy budget. Continuous increase of EF and ecological deficit along time series indicates that China is moving away from sustainability. 1.47 times Chinese territories are accurately occupied by China in 1996 while 1.71 times in 2004. Obviously unsustainability procedure of China is accelerated by EE. The contribution of EE to EF and ecological deficit is small in absolute terms expressed in per capita, but the effects on whole nation are huge if the population of China multiplies them. To curb the increase of EF and ecological deficit and to achieve the goal of sustainability, some policy and measures are also proposed.     

Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method—A case study in Henan Province, China

Taking Henan Province of China as an example, we computed and analyzed the ecological footprint (EF) in 1983–2006. The results showed that the EF in Henan Province quadrupled in the 23 years, but its ecological carrying capacity (EC) was rather low and was in a state of slow decline, indicating that Henan's ecological deficit (ED) had become a remarkable social problem. Therefore, the major drivers of the EF's change were analyzed. According to the simulations with STIRPAT model, the major drivers of Henan's EF were human population (P), GDP per capita (A₁), quadratic term of GDP per capita (A₂), percent of economy excluded in the service sector (Ta₁) and percent of urban population (Tb₁). However, these drivers themselves had strong collinearity, which might produce some uncertain impact to the final results. In order to avoid the impact of collinearity, the method of partial least squares (PLS) was used. The results showed that the major drivers of EF were P, A₁, A₂ and Tb₁. Ta₁ was excluded. Compared with the results by the STIRPAT model, which showed that P is the most dominant driver and the effect of the other drivers could almost be ignored, the results by PLS method were considered as more reasonable and acceptable because the impacts of the A (Affluence) and T (Technology) conditions to the regional EF were still too important to be ignored. In addition, the results acquired by both methods showed that the curvilinear relationship between economic development and ecological impact (EF) or the classical EKC hypothesis didn't exist in Henan Province.     

滇池草海流域生态足迹与生态承栽力分析

用生态足迹与生态承载力方法计算结果表明,2 0 0 4年草海流域人均总生态足迹为2.7 2 8 hm^2/人,生态承载力为0.0 5 8 hm^2/人,生态赤字高达2.6 7 0 hm^2/人。从动态变化来看,2 0 0 0～2 0 0 4年草海流域人均总生态足迹呈逐渐上升的趋势,而人均生态承载力略微呈下降趋势,故生态赤字逐渐增加。从横向对比分析,与昆明市与云南省相比,草海流域的生态足迹较高,而生态承载力较低,因而生态赤字远远高于昆明市及云南省平均水平,人均万元GDP生态足迹也较高。同时,基于生态足迹和生态承载力计算结果,可对草海流域生态适度人口进行估算并对其合理性进行分析。     

中国省级区域经济生产的资源需求——基于生态足迹模型的分析

以生态足迹模型的基本方法计算了1990年和2001年中国各省市自治区的生产足迹,以探询经济生产中产生的自然资源需求的区域差异及其影响因素。研究表明,受经济发展水平、资源人口分布、区域政策等影响,北部、西部牧业区和城市地区普遍有较大的资源需求,而南方省份的资源需求更以更快的速度在增长。     

基于生态足迹理论的天津市可持续发展动态研究

利用生态足迹分析方法对天津市1989—2008年的生态足迹进行了计算和分析。计算结果表明：天津市人均生态足迹由1989年的1.64 hm2上升到2008年的1.65 hm2;同期的人均生态承载力则由0.27 hm2逐年上升到0.32 hm2;人均生态赤字由1.36 hm2降到1.32 hm2。虽然天津市人口对自然资源的利用呈下降趋势、生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾有所减缓,但生态足迹目前仍然超出了自然生态系统的生态承载力范围,现有的发展模式是不可持续的,生态环境处于较不安全的状态。     

Does Ecological Footprint Impede Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time‐series analysis of 22 countries over the period 1961–2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long‐run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long‐run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade‐off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices.     

Biocapacity supply and demand in Northwestern China: A spatial appraisal of sustainability

Integrating spatial analysis with the supply and demand of biocapacity is critical for the sustainable development of regional eco-economic systems. Previous studies have focused on the temporal analysis of biocapacity at broad geographical scales, but lacked the systematic spatial realization at fine scales. An improvement is proposed of this conventional methodology of the ecological footprint by incorporating land-use data derived from high-resolution remote-sensing images into the calculation of biocapacity supply at regional, provincial and county levels in Northwestern China in 2000. The spatial heterogeneity and its effect on the biocapacity supply were systematically revealed for this region. First, the biocapacity supply declined from the east (the Guanzhong Basin and the Loess Plateau) to the middle (the Qaidam Basin and the Turpan Basin), and turned to rise from the middle to the west (the northwest of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomy). Second, although the gap between biocapacity supply and demand resulted in a small ecological deficit at the regional level, a large ecological deficit was observed at the provincial and county levels, highlighting an unsustainable situation for some of the sub-regions. Importantly, a power law relationship was unveiled between the biocapacity supply and population density, suggesting that (i) the biocapacity supply as a critical indicator could reflect the intensity of human exploitation on local biophysical resources and (ii) humans tend to have a preference to inhabit those areas with high biological productivity. These results provide opportunities to enhance policy development by central and local governments as part of the long-term Great Western Development Strategy of China.