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分析喀什市1981—2010年的气温、降水量、日照时数等气象资料,得到近三十年来的气候变化趋势,主要表现为年平均气温均呈上升趋势(0.71℃/10a);四季气温变化差异不明显,各季节均呈上升趋势。气候变暖贡献最大的是秋季,其次是春季;年平均降水量总体上呈上升趋势(8.115mm/10a),20世纪80年代初到90年代末降水量出现了上升趋势,但比较平稳。自21世纪以来,年降水量的波动幅度较大,而且波动增长趋势显著,相对变化率较大;日照时数也呈上升趋势,尤其是1995年以后增长趋势较为明显。该区气候变化与二氧化碳的增加,人类活动的影响,日照时间增长有密切关系。 相似文献
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《西部大开发》2017,(6)
根据西安市1975~2012年4个典型气象站点的降水资料,运用空间插值法、累积距平曲线法、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法以及双累积曲线法等多种方法对西安城区和郊区年际、季节和汛枯期降水时空变化特征进行了趋势分析和突变检验。结果表明:(1)近38年来西安地区多年平均降水量为611.5mm,总体上呈下降趋势,下降率为-13.7mm/10a,且市区降水量下降趋势较郊区显著;(2)无论是枯季还是汛期,城区降水量明显小于郊区,且两者呈现相反的变化趋势,这主要与城乡气候差异及人为因素有关;(3)年降水量突变点为1979年,而春、夏、秋、冬各季突变点分别为2000、1979、1980和1997年,与全年突变点不尽一致,汛期较枯季易发生突变;(4)从空间上来看,西安地区多年平均降水量由东南向西北呈递减趋势。 相似文献
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根据乳源国家气象观测站1965—2022年和13个区域自动气象站2014—2022年的降水资料,采用滑动t检验、Morlet小波分析等方法分析近58 a乳源降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:乳源年均降水量呈单峰型,峰值出现在5月和6月;乳源汛期降水量总体是较为明显增加的趋势,存在6、15、34 a 3个振荡周期,34 a周期是汛期降水量变化的第一主振荡周期;汛期降水量的变化趋势和年降水量的变化趋势基本一致;乳源汛期降水的空间分布总体呈现自西南向东北递减的趋势。 相似文献
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采用万州区1955—2013年的气候资料,采用气候生产力模型对该地区的植被净初级生产力进行计算,研究气候因子变化对植被净初级生产力的影响。结果表明:万州区的年均植被净初级生产力数值为11.446 t·hm-2·a-1,但是年际间变化无显著上升或下降的变化趋势。植被净初级生产力与年降雨量、年平均生物温度、年平均相对湿度之间是显著正相关,与年平均最高温度之间为显著负相关。在全球气候变暖的背景下,1985年前后万州区的年平均相对湿度和年平均最高温度发生了突变,未来将会进一步降低万州区的植被净初级生产力,从而对生态环境产生压力。 相似文献
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热岛效应已经成为我们耳熟能详的名词,利用广西南宁市及其周迪城镇观测资料。综合分析发现,近20年来,南宁的平均温度呈现上升趋势,日照时数减少趋势.年降水呈现增加趋势,极端天气日数缓慢增多,构成一地区气候基本特征的气温、日照、天气现象等,随着中小城市市政建设的高速发展,发生了较为明显的变化。 相似文献
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本文运用结构突变理论,在检验台湾GDP序列的平稳性后,建立台湾GDP序列的拟合模型,实证检验支持台湾GDP序列在1974、1981、2001年产生结构突变,且潜在GDP函数发生了变化。通过分离GDP序列的趋势成分和周期成分,运用周期成分对台湾经济周期波动进行分析。研究发现,台湾经济周期波动主要受世界经济景气和台湾经济发展策略的影响。发生结构突变后台湾经济增长趋势发生变化,这与台湾经济的发展阶段和相应采取的经济发展策略密切相关。论文最后对未来台湾经济增长趋势做出预测。 相似文献
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一、长波与产业革命自工业革命以来,资本主义经济循着一种上升,下跌相互交叠趋势发展着,周期基本为十年左右.但在作进一步分析后,可以发现:叠置于十年左右波动正负周相之上还存在一个更长时期振幅的波动,周期约为五十年左右.前二十五年基本保持着向上波动趋势,后二十五则向下波动.该现象出现在所有发达资本主义国家内.例如,1780-1843年,1844-1896年和1897-1940年的三个时期内,英、美、法、德等国的经济发展都明显地呈现出这种长期的波动.其中1780-1819年、1844-1873年和1896-1921年、经济处在上升时期,虽然不时出现负周相,但繁荣占主导地位;相反,1820-1843年、1873-1896年和1921-1940年,资本主义世界的经济几乎近一半时间处在不景气之中,即使偶而出现向上的波动,但振幅小。 相似文献
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Thi Kam Tho Nguen 《Studies on Russian Economic Development》2007,18(2):211-218
Features of development of investment processes during the reform period in Vietnam are discussed. The focus of attention is on measures of dynamics, industry and regional structure, foreign investment, and the investment relations of Vietnam, mainly with Southeast Asian countries, and its comparison with these countries by degree of investment attractiveness. The author only deals with foreign direct investment because foreign portfolio investment is almost nonexistent because of the underdevelopment of the stock market in Vietnam. Factors determining the investment climate in Vietnam are described and recommendations for its improvement are given. 相似文献
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ZENG Shao-jun NIU Zhi-guo 《美中经济评论(英文版)》2008,7(5):1-10
The article introduces the impact and essence of climate change and analyzes the attitudes and measures of international community to fight global climate change. From the perspectives of Clean Development Mechanism, Voluntary Carbon Market, energy audit and potential carbon asset investment, this paper discusses the feasible paths of Chinese steel & iron industry against global climate change and summarizes the main fields of adapting to the development of CDM project activities. 相似文献
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Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Rosamond L. Naylor Whitney L. Smith Marshall B. Burke 《Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies》2004,40(3):355-377
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an ‘ENSO summit’ each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events. 相似文献
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The aim was to investigate the effects of nAch training given to managerial staff in clothing factories on four dependent variables, ie perception of organization climate, labour productivity, labour turnover and labour absenteeism. A field experiment done on a pre‐test post‐test basis was carried out. Three factory management teams were assigned to an experimental group and were subjected to the training intervention. The members of the management teams from nine factories formed the control group. Psychometric measuring instruments used were the Organization Diagnostic Questionnaire and Strümpfer's Inventory of Some Personal Reactions. Analysis of Variance based on trend analyses and some other parametric and non‐parametric statistical techniques were used to analyse the data. The analysis indicated that perceptions of organization climate were not altered by the experimental intervention but that achievement values did increase. Labour productivity was also elevated significantly by the intervention. No significant effects on labour turnover and absenteeism could be shown. 相似文献
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Raaj Sah 《World development》1979,7(3):337-347
The LDC performance is crucially dependent on climate, and the application of climate sciences can produce substantial benefits. This paper discusses: (1) the state-of-the-art and the potential of: climatology, weather forecasting, weather modification, and long-term trends in the Earth's climate; (2) economically attractive applications and research; (3) available climate-related capabilities in LDCs; and (4) rough estimates of costs, benefits, lead-times and institutional requirements for investments in weather and climate. Immediate investment in applied climatology and operationally oriented weather prediction is found highly desirable. The benefits would be substantially higher than costs if investments respond to priority needs. International cooperation would reduce cost and lead-time for LDCs. 相似文献
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Despite the importance of as comprehensive as possible damagecost estimates to cost benefit analyses of global attempts toreduce greenhouse gas emissions, few researchers have attemptedto monetize the direct impact of climate change on households.This study uses the hedonic technique to measure the amenityvalue of the climate to German households. Evidence suggeststhat the amenity value of climate variables is capitalized mainlyinto hedonic house price differentials. Overall, German householdsappear to prefer warmer winters with less rainfall. Combiningestimates of amenity values with the predicted changes in climateassociated with the IPCC's A2 emissions scenario we find thatthe overall impact of climate change on German households, whilstnegative, is typically not statistically different from zero.This occurs in part because the prediction is for warmer butwetter winters and also because the amenity value of some climatevariables cannot be measured with sufficient precision. 相似文献