电气误操作的预防和控制

为了保证电网的安全、稳定、经济运行,提高变电运行管理水平,必须建立和完善电力企业防止电气误操作的安全管理体系,实施安全绩效管理,同时必须在组织和技术方面采取必要的措施。管理体系、组织措施和技术措施相辅相成,共同构成了预防和控制电气误操作的保障系统,以此来保障操作人员操作的正确性,从而杜绝电气误操作事故的发生。     

Extracting Sustainable Earnings from Profit Margins

Revenues and expenses are fundamentally proportional to one another, but are likely to be disproportionally affected by transitory items or economic shocks. We build on this observation and propose a new measure of sustainable earnings based on deviations from normal profit margins. While some other sustainable earnings metrics attempt to identify transitory components on a line-by-line basis, our measure, referred to as the intensity of core earnings (ICE), uses ratio analysis to extract the transitory portion of earnings from all line items. We find that the ICE, as measured here, is positively associated with earnings persistence, better earnings predictability, and stronger market reaction to unexpected earnings. We also find that our measure is positively associated with post-earnings announcement excess stock returns. Comparing our measure with an accrual-based measure of earnings quality, we find that, in general, the two metrics provide distinct incremental information relative to one another and in some instances our measure is better than an accrual-based measure in assessing earnings quality.     

Numeraire portfolios and utility-based price systems under proportional transaction costs

In a discrete-time incomplete financial market with proportional transaction costs and with independent and bounded returns, we prove the existence of a consistent price system that can be written as the expectation of the discounted claim under the real-world probability measure P and not just under a martingale measure. In fact, the claim is then discounted by some specific dynamic portfolio called the numeraire portfolio as in the classical case of markets without transaction costs. For that specific numeraire, P will be a martingale measure. Naturally, the concept of a numeraire portfolio has here to be adapted to the concept of consistent price systems for markets with transaction costs. Moreover, again as in the classical case, the numeraire portfolio can be chosen as log-optimal portfolio. The same analysis works for power utility functions. However, then a change of measure is necessary. This paper applies methods from stochastic dynamic programming to finance.     

Risk-return measures of hedging effectiveness: The case of multiple cash and futures markets

In this article we consider the measure of hedging effectiveness proposed by Howard and D' Antonio (HD) when there are multiple cash and futures markets. It is found that the HD measure can be decomposed into two components: one solely determined by the futures market conditions, the other affected by both cash and futures markets as well as the hedger's cash portfolio. We then analyze the impacts of optimal cash portfolios on the HD measure. Although the Ederington hedging effectiveness is bounded over all cash portfolios, the conclusion does not apply to the HD measure.     

Aggregate Poverty Measures

The way poverty is measured is important for an understanding of what has happened to poverty as well as for anti-poverty policy evaluation. Sen's (1976) pathfinding work has motivated many researchers to focus on the way poverty should be measured. A poverty measure, argued by Sen, should satisfy certain properties or axioms and the desirability of a poverty measure should be evaluated by these axioms. During the last two decades, many researchers have adopted the axiomatic approach pioneered by Sen to propose additional axioms and develop alternative poverty measures. The objective of this survey is to provide a clarification on the extensive literature of aggregate poverty measures. In this survey, we first examine the desirability of each axiom, the properties of each poverty measure, and the interrelationships among axioms. The desirability of an axiom cannot be evaluated in isolation, and some combination of axioms may make it impossible to devise a satisfactory poverty measure; some axioms can be implied by other axioms combined and so are not independent; some others are ad hoc and are disqualified as axioms for poverty measurement. Based on the interactions among axioms, we identify the ‘core’ axioms which together have a strong implication on the functional form of a poverty measure. We then review poverty measures that have appeared in the literature, evaluating the interrelationships among different measures, and examining the properties of each measure. The axioms each measure satisfies/violates are also summarized in a tabular form. Several ‘good’ poverty measures, which have not been documented by previous surveys, are also included.     

Social decision for a measure society

Preference aggregation is here investigated for a society defined as a measure space of individuals and called a measure society. Individual preferences are represented through continuous vnm utilities. It is shown that aggregating preferences in an utilitarian way for any kind of measure society is possible under adapted Pareto conditions.     

The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries

We propose a new measure of macroeconomic uncertainty that incorporates a rich information set from U.S. SPF density forecasts. Our measure has two key advantages over traditional measures: (i) it reflects the subjective perceptions of market participants; and (ii) it is an ex ante measure that does not require a knowledge of realized outcomes. We study the features of this measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and explore its impact on real economic activities within the U.S., as well as its spillover effects for BRIC countries.     

The measurement of productive efficiency: A robust minimax approach

Some applied aspects of robustness are formulated and empirically tested so as to generalize the Farrell efficiency measure for the frontier production function. A minimax method is used to develop a Chebyshev efficiency measure along with a stochastic production frontier. The relative insensitivity of such a measure in respect of sample size variations and outliers are illustrated by an empirical application to educational production functions.     

Excess capacity: a permanent characteristic of US airlines?

This paper examines the permanence of excess capacity in the US airline industry. To avoid the problems with the standard engineering measure of capacity utilization, load factor, we define and measure capacity as an economic concept. Two measures of economic capacity utilization are then computed—one, a demand-based measure and the other an output-based measure of capacity utilization. Both measures share little in common with the standard engineering measure (load factor) and reveal some interesting attributes of airline travel demand. This paper also provides interesting new insights into the role of deregulation and the costs of excess capacity during regulation. Specifically, it is found that deregulation with the concomitant rationalization of route structures enabled airlines to move closer to their optimal levels of capacity and facilitated substantial improvements in capacity utilization and cost reductions over the period considered. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross-Classification Analysis Using Prediction Logic Versus Theory-Testing Logic: Comments on the Use of the DEL-Technique

Without acknowledging the paradigm difference between testing theory and predicting events, researchers in the field of management and organization continue to use the DEL-technique as a promising technique to evaluate theory based on cross-classification data analysis. We address the purpose and interpretation of the DEL-measure within the theory-testing and events-predicting paradigm. We argue that DEL, a proportionate reduction in error measure, is not to be interpreted in terms of the proportionate error reduction of knowing a prediction rule over not knowing it. In addition, a significant DEL-value is not to be interpreted as a dependence-measure of acceptance of a hypothesis as the only and best relationship between two categorical variables, just as a non-significant DEL-value cannot be interpreted as a measure of independence. Furthermore, an alternative proportionate reduction in error measure generates unequivocally interpretable results compared to the DEL-technique. Ton Steerneman passed away on September, 28, 2005.     

Deprived or not deprived? Comparing the measured extent of material deprivation using the UK government’s and the Poverty and Social Exclusion surveys’ method of calculating material deprivation

Poverty can either be measured directly, through standards of living such as material deprivation, or indirectly through resources available, usually income. Research shows that the optimum measure of poverty combines these methods, a fact that the UK government took cognisance of in its tripartite measure of child poverty. For use in a birth cohort study, two methods of calculating material deprivation were tested: the method used by the UK government taken from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), and the methods used in the Poverty and Social Exclusion (PSE) study at Bristol University. Results show that the former measure, compared to the latter measure, underestimates the depth and extent of material deprivation among families with young children in Scotland.     

A Measure of Representativeness of a Sample for Inferential Purposes

After defining the concept of representativeness of a random sample, the author proposes a measure of how much the observed sample represents its parent distribution. This measure is called Representativeness Index. The same measure, seen as a function of a sample and of a distribution, will be called Representativeness Function. For a given sample it provides the value of the index for the different distributions under examination, and for a given distribution it provides a measure of the representativeness of its possible samples. Such Representativeness Function can be used in an inferential framework just as the likelihood function, since it gives to any distribution the "experimental support" provided by the observed sample. This measure is distribution-free and it is shown to be a transformation of the wellknown Cramér–von Mises statistic. By using the properties of that statistic, criteria for providing set estimators and tests of hypotheses are introduced. The utilization of the representativeness function in many standard statistical problems is outlined through examples. The quality of the inferential decisions can be assessed with the usual techniques (MSE, power function, coverage probabilities). The most interesting examples turn out to be those of situations that are "non-regular", as for instance the estimation of parameters involved in the support of the parent distribution, or less explored (model choice).     

Measure preserving derivatives and the pricing kernel puzzle

Recent empirical studies have found evidence of nonmonotonicity in the pricing kernels for a variety of market indices. This phenomenon is known as the pricing kernel puzzle. The payoff distribution pricing model of Dybvig predicts that the payoff distribution of a direct investment of $1 in a market index may be replicated by investing less than $1 in some derivative written on that market index whenever the associated pricing kernel is nondecreasing. Using the Hardy–Littlewood rearrangement inequality, we obtain an explicit solution for the cheapest replicating derivative, which we refer to as the optimal measure preserving derivative. The optimal measure preserving derivative is the permutation appearing in Ryff’s decomposition of the pricing kernel with respect to the market payoff measure. We compute optimal measure preserving derivatives corresponding to the estimated physical and risk neutral distributions in the paper by Jackwerth (2000) that first brought attention to the pricing kernel puzzle.     

Compensation for illiquidity in China: Evidence from an alternative measure

This paper shows that liquidity is an important source of priced risk in China. Using A-share stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange over the period 2007–2017, we examine the influence of liquidity on stock returns. A new liquidity measure that captures multiple dimensions of liquidity is proposed. Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression shows that the expected return is negatively correlated with liquidity. Based on Fama and French (1993), we propose a five-factor pricing model by incorporating reversal factor and liquidity factor. Time-series regressions show that the liquidity factor makes significantly marginal contributions to explaining excess stock returns. The liquidity factor based on the proposed measure works better than alternative liquidity measures such as turnover, Amihud illiquidity measure and the measure in Liu (2006).     

How to Measure Analyst Forecast Effort

Abstract

We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.     

What Does Trade Openness Measure?

An empirical measure of trade openness is defined as the ratio of total trade to GDP, and represents a convenient variable routinely used for cross‐country studies on a variety of issues. However, the effects that the crude measure captures remain ambiguous, making it difficult to interpret the empirical results. Drawing on several strands of the literature, this study examines the informational content of the trade openness measure using intranational and international data. We find that, even for fully integrated economies within a country, trade openness is approximately half as variable as it is for segmented diverse countries around the world. The information it conveys is better characterized as the extent of the economic remoteness and idiosyncratic distribution of sectoral production. The cross‐country variation of trade openness derives more from the variability in GDP than trade.     

Assessing Trust Through Social Capital? A Possible Experimental Answer

Trust is important in economics: several transactions are based on it; unfortunately it is difficult to measure. The recent economic literature on social capital shows a positive association between this concept and trust. As social capital is easier to measure than trust, this paper analyzes the possibility of assessing trust using a measure of social capital. A basic trust game is played in three Western European countries with undergraduate students; a questionnaire measures their level of social capital as time spent within social networks. This measure is stronger and more precise than the ones generally used. The use of an experiment instead of a questionnaire allows for constructing a measure of trust that is continuous in principle. Moreover, to play an experiment allows for observing the behavior of the participants better than by the means of a survey. The results are supportive of the fact that trust can be assessed through social capital, although the presence of a strong geographical effect has to be accounted for.     

Smooth inequality measurement: Approximation theorems

The main purpose of this paper is to prove that smoothness is not a restrictive assumption in inequality measurement as any inequality measure (preorder) can be approximated in a well defined sense by a smooth inequality measure (preorder).     

Smithian National Product and the Wealth of African Nations

Abstract . Given the contemporary interest in growth, conventional measures of economic growth (changes in real GDP or real GDP per capita) may be less preferable than a measure that is more plutological by design. The plutological measure presented in this paper is that of Adam Smith (1776 ). While Smith's work pre‐dated formal national income accounting, there was a macroeconomic accounting scheme implicit in his theorizing on economic growth. This study articulates Adam Smith's concept of national product (referred to as Smithian national product, or SNP). It uses current output data to compute SNP for a set of six African countries, and examines the growth experience of these countries when using SNP as opposed to the more conventional GDP measure.     

An axiomatic approach to the measurement of accessibility

In this paper an axiomatic approach is developed for the task of measuring accessibility. The general mathematical form of a measure satisfying the postulated axioms is derived. This class of measure contains as a sub-class the so-called gravity potentials. A measure of the accessibility to employment opportunities is presented with applications to the Stockholm region. Finally some ideas on further development of accessibility measures are discussed.