Measuring the Effective Tax Burden in the Real World*

This paper argues that forward‐looking indices of the effective tax burden on income from capital – namely, effective marginal and average tax rates – are negatively biased because traditional models overlook dividend constraints associated with financial tax incentives, such as accelerated depreciation. The paper presents measures of the two indices adjusted to remove the bias and compares the new indices with the traditional ones. Numerical simulations carried out to quantify the magnitude of the bias for France, Germany, Ireland, Italy and the UK give evidence of sizeable distortions in the unadjusted indices and, in turn, suggest significant mismeasurement in the current assessment of the effective tax burden.     

Neutral taxation of shareholder income? Corporate responses to an announced dividend tax

The introduction of the 2006 Norwegian shareholder income tax was announced in advance, and it increased top marginal tax rates on individual dividend income from zero to 28%. We document strong timing effects on dividend payout on a large panel of non-listed corporations, with a surge of dividends prior to 2006 and a sharp drop after. Mature firms are more likely to pay dividends, and high asset growth increases the probability of retaining all earnings. Intertemporal income shifting through the timing of dividends seems to be a drain on internal equity and cause increases in the corporations’ debt–equity ratios. The debt ratios drop sharply after the implementation of the reform.     

The Elasticity of Taxable Income in New Zealand*

This paper reports estimates of the elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net‐of‐tax rate for New Zealand taxpayers. The relative stability of the New Zealand personal income tax system, in terms of marginal rates, thresholds and the tax base, provides helpful conditions for deriving these estimates. The elasticity of taxable income was estimated to be substantially higher for the highest income groups. Changes in the timing of income flows for the higher income recipients were found to be an important response to the announcement of a new higher rate bracket. The marginal welfare costs of personal income taxation were consistent across years, being relatively small for all but the higher tax brackets. For the top marginal rate bracket of 39 per cent, the welfare cost of raising an extra dollar of tax revenue was estimated to be well in excess of a dollar. Implications of the findings are that: disincentive effects of high top marginal rates can be substantial even when labour supply responses are small; the welfare costs of increases in top marginal tax rates can be high; and announcement effects of tax policy changes can lead to considerable income shifting between time periods.     

The Ex-Dividend Day Behavior of Canadian Stock Prices: Tax Changes and Clientele Effects

With some simple assumptions the ex-dividend day price drop and the associated dividend can be used to measure the market's marginal tax rate. Previous research has estimated the implied tax rate for the U.S. This paper extends the analysis to Canada, where the tax treatment of dividends and capital gains is completely different from that in the U.S. The paper also presents estimates from 1970–80 to include four distinct periods when the tax treatment was different. Hence, we include an implied test of market efficiency as well as those for the “relevance” of taxes and the existence of tax based dividend clienteles.     

“两税合一”对台湾上市公司股利税资本化的影响

本文以1994～2001年两税合一税制实施前后的台湾上市公司为样本，运用Harris-Kemsley股利税后收益模型，探讨所得税制改革对权益投资者收益的影响，以及两税合一税制的实施对股利税资本化的影响。实证结果表明：两税合一税制实施前，台湾上市公司的末分配盈余与其股利税资本化程度负相关，即股利税资本化效果存在；两税合一税制实施后，台湾上市公司的股利税资本化程度低于两税合一前的程度。     

On the construction of marginal federal personal and social security tax rates in the U.S

In this article, I correct and extend my earlier series on marginal federal personal income tax rates. I also construct a measure of the marginal Social Security tax rate and add this to the income tax rate to obtain a measure of the effective marginal tax rate on income due to federal taxes. Finally, I compare my series on marginal income tax rates and its method of construction with those of Barro and Sahasakul.     

The ex-dividend day stock price behavior in the Chinese stock market

This paper analyzes the ex-dividend day stock price behavior in the Chinese stock market. This market allows to examine the impact of tax effects while keeping any microstructure factors constant. The findings from non-taxable stocks show that their price, on the ex-dividend day, falls by an amount that is not statistically different from the dividend. For the taxable sample, stock prices of small dividend yield stocks fall proportionally to the dividend paid. For the large dividend yield stocks, the price adjustment depends on the effective tax rate on dividend income. The overall findings are consistent with the tax hypothesis.     

ESTIMATING THE TAX BENEFITS OF DEBT

The standard approach to valuing interest tax shields assumes that full tax benefits are realized on every dollar of interest deduction in every scenario. The approach presented in this paper takes account of the possibility that interest tax shields cannot be used in some scenarios, in part because of variations in the firm's profitability. Because of the dynamic nature of the tax code (e.g., tax-loss carrybacks and carryforwards), it is necessary to consider past and future taxable income when estimating today's effective marginal tax rate. The paper uses a series of numerical examples to show that (1) the incremental value of an extra dollar of interest deduction is equal to the marginal tax rate appropriate for that dollar ; and (2) a firm's effective marginal tax rate (and therefore the marginal benefit of incremental interest deductions) can actually decline as the firm takes on additional debt.
Based on marginal benefit functions for thousands of firms from 1980–1999, the author concludes that the tax benefits of debt averaged approximately 10% of firm value during the 1980s, while declining to around 8% in the 1990s. By taking maximum advantage of the interest tax shield, the average firm could have increased its value by approximately 15% over the 1980s and 1990s, suggesting that the consequences of being underlevered are significant. Surprisingly, many of the companies that appear best able to service debt (i.e., those with the lowest apparent costs of debt) use the least amount of debt, on average. Treasurers and CFOs should critically reevaluate their companies' debt policies and consider the benefits of additional leverage, even if taking on more debt causes their credit ratings to slip a notch.     

Do personal taxes affect capital structure? Evidence from the 2003 tax cut

Because the personal tax treatments of interest and dividend income likely affect the relative cost of debt and equity financing, a sharp change in tax treatment could affect firms' optimal leverage. This paper examines the effect of the 2003 equity income tax cut on firms' debt usage. Because this tax cut affected only individual investors, we can use a difference-in-differences method to identify the effect of personal tax on firms' leverage. Previous research has found that the 2003 tax cut encouraged dividend payouts and reduced the cost of equity, but it provides no link to equilibrium leverage ratios. We estimate that the tax cut causes the affected firms' leverage to decrease by about 5 percentage points. Furthermore, we show that the effects of the tax cut are stronger for firms with lower marginal corporate tax rates and for firms that are not financially constrained, consistent with our theoretical predictions. Overall, we find strong evidence that personal tax is an important determinant of firms' optimal leverage.     

Direct evidence of dividend tax clienteles

The paper is the first to evaluate the dividend tax clientele hypothesis using a data set of all domestic stock portfolios in the market. We find that investment funds that face a higher effective tax rate on dividend income than on capital gains tilt their portfolios away from dividend-paying stocks. These investors consequently earn a dividend yield that is about 35 basis points lower than that of investors who are tax neutral between dividends and capital gains (pension funds, unit-linked insurance, life insurance). Consistent with tax rules and charter provisions, we also find that private corporations prefer growth stocks, that foundations exhibit strong dividend preferences, and that partnerships rarely hold stocks portfolios.     

The composite dividend tax rate

Dividends often impose taxes on investors. However, as certain prior financial models indicate, they also can produce a tax gain from leverage. Hence the composite marginal dividend tax rate can be specified as the nominal rate minus the offsetting tax gain from leverage. Although this principle has been embedded in theoretical models for more than 40 years, no prior study has examined empirically whether the dividend-induced tax gain from leverage influences dividend policy. We address this empirical void and find dividends decrease in the nominal dividend tax rate and increase in the offsetting tax gain from leverage. In addition, we find the composite tax rate outperforms traditional measures in explaining dividend policy for our full sample of firms. Consistent with prior theory, we also find the composite rate varies in influence according to the financing source for a dividend.     

Capital gains tax and the capital asset pricing model

This paper develops a version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model that views dividend imputation as affecting company tax and assumes differential taxation of capital gains and ordinary income. These taxation issues aside, the model otherwise rests on the standard assumptions including full segmentation of national capital markets. It also treats dividend policy as exogenously determined. Estimates of the cost of equity based on this model are then compared with estimates based on the version of the CAPM typically applied in Australia, which differs only in assuming equality of the tax rates on capital gains and ordinary income. The differences between the estimates can be material. In particular, with a high dividend yield, allowance for differential taxation can result in an increase of two to three percentage points in the estimated cost of equity. The overall result obtained here carries over to a dividend equilibrium, in which firms choose a dividend policy that is optimal relative to the assumed tax structure.     

Financial leverage and corporate taxation: evidence from German corporate tax return data

To estimate the impact of profit taxation on the financial leverage of corporations, this study uses a pseudopanel constructed from comprehensive corporate tax return microdata for the period 1998–2001, which saw the introduction of major corporate tax reform in Germany. Financial leverage refers to the ratio of long-term debt to total capital. The endogeneity of the firm-specific marginal after-financing corporate income tax rate is controlled for by an instrumental variable approach. The instrument for the observed marginal tax rate is the counterfactual tax rate that a corporation would have faced in a particular period had there been no endogenous change, triggered by the tax reform, of its financial leverage and tax base. This counterfactual tax rate is derived from a detailed microsimulation model of the corporate sector, based on tax return microdata. The marginal tax rate has a statistically significant and relatively large positive effect on corporate leverage; for firms reporting positive profits, an increase of the marginal tax rate of 1 % would increase the financial leverage by approximately 0.7 %, on average. The debt ratio is less responsive to tax incentives for small corporations and firms facing high economic risks.     

Foreign portfolio equity holdings and capital gains taxation

Using panel data from 23 developed countries over the 2001–2011 period and employing the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond dynamic panel estimation technique, this paper shows that the source country capital gains tax has a negative and statistically significant impact on foreign portfolio equity holdings. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in capital gains tax rate leads to 0.018% decrease in foreign equity holdings. The negative relationship between the capital gains tax and foreign equity holdings is found to be robust to alternative measures of the source country capital gains tax, inclusion of the dividend imputation tax rate, foreign dividend tax withheld rate, dividend tax credit and other control variables (the source and host country financial wealth, trade, exchange rate volatility, foreign listing and institutional quality). We find that a 1% increase in financial wealth of the source (host) country leads to, on average, a 0.428% (0.427%) increase in foreign equity holdings. An improvement in institutional quality has a positive effect on foreign equity holdings but an increase in the exchange rate volatility has the opposite effect.     

TAX PROGRESSIVITY AND CORPORATE INCENTIVES TO HEDGE

If a company faces some form of tax progressivity—that is, its marginal tax rate increases over the firm's expected range of reported taxable income—corporate hedging can reduce the firm's expected tax liability by reducing the volatility of pre-tax income. In a study described in this article, the authors used simulation methods to investigate the extent to which tax progressivity arises from various provisions of the tax code, such as the AMT and tax carryforwards and carrybacks. Based on their analysis of over 80,000 COMPUSTAT firm-year observations, the authors find that, in about 50% of the cases, corporations face effective tax functions that exhibit progressivity. The other 50% of cases are about evenly divided between firms that are tax neutral and those facing tax schedules that are "regressive" (again, over the relevant range of expected reported income).
For those companies facing progressive tax functions, the authors estimate that the projected average tax savings from a 5% reduction in the volatility of taxable income is about 5.4% of the expected tax liabilities. However, the distribution of expected reductions is highly skewed, in extreme cases exceeding 40% of the total tax liability. Most of these extreme cases are small to medium-sized companies, since such firms are much more likely to meet the two conditions for achieving large tax benefits: (1) expected pretax income that is close to zero; and (2) sufficiently volatile income that the firm (in the absence of hedging) expects to report losses in some years. In sum, small to medium-sized companies experience the greatest tax benefits from hedging.     

The Effect of Taxes on Corporate Financing Decisions: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Firms

This paper provides additional evidence on the relationship between corporate taxes and debt using panel data on Italian companies. The panel covers 1054 companies for the years 1982–1994.The paper follows the Graham-Shevlin methodology for calculating company specific marginal tax rates (MTR) relying on the non-linearity of corporate tax schedules resulting from company losses and the ensuing tax provisions (carry-forward and backward rules). In the period covered by the panel there were in Italy two taxes on corporate income (IRPEG and ILOR), with different loss carry-forward rules, whose statutory tax rates and tax bases changed several times. For these reasons the simulated MTRs display both cross-sectional and time-series variation.The paper tests whether taxes encourage the use of debt by analysing incremental financing decisions. In order to cope with the endogeneity of the MTR the paper considers two different specifications. The first uses the lagged value of the simulated MTR. The second employs the estimate of before-financing MTR proposed by Graham et al. (1998). Significant cross-sectional tax effects are identified under both specifications whereas time-series variation cannot be identified if due account is taken of firm-fixed tax effects.The paper also investigates whether personal taxes affect corporate financing decisions. The MTR may either overstate or understate the fiscal benefit of debt financing according to whether, at the personal level, interest income is taxed at a rate that is higher or lower than the tax rate on returns from common stocks. Differences in the dividend-payout ratio across companies and several reforms in interest, dividend and capital gains taxation provide sufficient cross-section and time-series variations to identify the effect of personal taxes on debt usage.     

An analysis of nondeductible IRA contributions and Roth IRA conversions

On average investors have an income replacement rate of 64% of their pre-retirement income, which in many cases results in a lower tax rate in retirement. We analyze the impact of declining withdrawal tax rates on the choice between taxable mutual fund investments and nondeductible IRAs. The relative attractiveness of the taxable mutual fund option declines significantly when withdrawal tax rates decline. Converting existing IRAs to Roth IRAs is generally beneficial for investors who remain in the same tax bracket upon withdrawal. For short (long) time horizons and low (high) expected returns, the marginal value of conversion in 1998 is greater (less) than the marginal value of optimal conversion. For investors dropping into the 15% tax bracket, conversion is generally not beneficial unless the conversion is done optimally, the time horizon is long, and the expected return is high. Investors in the 15% tax bracket should convert existing IRA assets.     

Does the investment interest limitation explain the existence of dividends?

Miller and Scholes have shown that under certain conditions the Federal Income Tax taxes dividend income at a rate no higher than the rate on capital gains. Tabulations of actual 1977 tax returns show that the special circumstances under which this can occur apply to recipients of two and one half percent of dividend income and that no dominant role may therefore be ascribed to their hypothesis in the determination of corporate dividend policy.     

Human capital and optimal positive taxation of capital income

This paper analyzes optimal linear and non-linear taxes on capital and labor incomes in a life-cycle model of human capital investment, financial savings, and labor supply with heterogenous individuals. A dual income tax with a positive marginal tax rate on not only labor income but also capital income is optimal. The positive tax on capital income serves to alleviate the distortions of the labor tax on human capital accumulation. The optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is lower than that on labor income if savings are elastic compared to investment in human capital, substitution between verifiable and non-verifiable inputs in human capital formation is difficult, and most investments in human capital are verifiable so that education subsidies can directly reduce the tax wedge on learning. Numerical calculations suggest that the optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is substantial.     

Adapting the APV valuation methodology and the beta gearing formula to the dividend imputation tax system

This paper adapts the APV valuation methodology and the formula for gearing beta to the Australian dividend imputation tax system. The APV formulation is shown to be able to be applied in the dividend imputation tax system by simply replacing the statutory tax rate with an effective tax rate in the calculation of the “cash flows”. The effect of the dividend imputation tax system on a company's value is shown to be easily bounded using the APV formulation by making the extreme assumption that imputation credits are either: fully distributed and fully valued by the market; or that they are worthless. This paper also quantifies the effect of changing the assumed value of imputation credits on: (i) the value of the interest tax shield of debt; and (ii) the levered, or equity, beta.