Environmental taxation and the double dividend: A reader's guide

There has been considerable debate as to whether the revenue-neutral substitution of environmental taxes for ordinary income taxes might offer a double dividend: not only (1) improve the environment but also (2) reduce certain costs of the tax system. This paper articulates different notions of double dividend and examines the theoretical and empirical evidence for each. It also connects the double-dividend issue with principles of optimal environmental taxation in a second-best setting.A weak double-dividend claim-that returning tax revenues through cuts in distortionary taxes leads to cost savings relative to the case where revenues are returned lump sum-is easily defended on theoretical grounds and (thankfully) receives wide support from numerical simulations. The stronger versions contend that revenueneutral swaps of environmental taxes for ordinary distortionary taxes involve zero or negative gross costs. Theoretical analyses and numerical results tend to cast doubt on the strong double-dividend claim, although the theoretical case is not air-tight and the numerical evidence is mixed.     

Nordic dual income taxation of entrepreneurs

The paper shows how entrepreneurial taxes interact with the career choice of individuals, the quality of entrepreneurs, and their investment behavior. It is particularly relevant to differentiate the early effects on start-up enterprises with substantial uncertainty from the tax effects on mature firms where the uncertainty is resolved. Conditions are derived for the Nordic dual income tax to be neutral and they are found to be stringent. Profit expectations matter. The Nordic dual encourages (discourages) the establishment of new enterprises by entrepreneurs who anticipate high (low) profitability.     

Housing policy and the progressivity of income taxation

Most countries have tax provisions and subsidies to promote homeownership. These provisions generate an asymmetry in the tax treatment of owner- and rental-occupied housing, which affects the incentives to supply tenant-occupied housing. This paper analyzes the quantitative importance of the interaction of these provisions with the progressivity of income taxation in the context of an overlapping generations model with housing and rental markets. The model replicates the key facts observed in the economy, as well as distributional patterns of ownership, house size, and landlord behavior. The model suggests that the progressivity of income taxation can amplify or mitigate the effects of the asymmetries with important implications for housing tenure, housing consumption, portfolio reallocations, and welfare that differ from those reported in the literature.     

National income taxation and the geographic distribution of population

We study how different national taxation schemes interact with geographic variation in productivity and consumption amenities in determining regional populations. A neoclassical migration equilibrium model is used to analyze the current nominal income tax system in Norway. The analysis is based on estimated regional income differences accounting for both observable and unobservable individual characteristics and the value of experience. Given regional differences in incomes and housing prices, quality of life and productivity are calibrated to model equilibrium. Compared to an undistorted equilibrium with lump-sum taxation, nominal income taxation creates a disincentive to locate in productive high-income regions. The deadweight loss due to locational inefficiencies is 0.18% of gross domestic product (GDP). We study real income taxation and equal real taxes as alternative tax systems. Both alternatives generate a geographic distribution of the population closer to the undistorted equilibrium, and hence with lower deadweight loss. In an extension of the analysis, we take into account payroll taxes. The existing regionally differentiated payroll taxes to the disadvantage of cities generate a deadweight loss of 0.22% of GDP in an economy with lump-sum income taxation. The two distortionary taxes interact and strengthen each other and the combined distortionary effect of income and payroll taxation in the Norwegian system is 0.46% of GDP.     

Optimal income taxation and social norms in the labor market

This paper concerns optimal income taxation in a two-type model extended to allow for social interaction and social norms in the labor market. One norm refers to “normal behavior” with respect to work hours (the hours of work norm), whereas another means that “one should earn one’s living by working” (the participation norm). The results show how the hours of work norm gives rise to a corrective motive for using income taxation. We also show how the interaction between the hours of work norm and the private incentive to participate in the labor market (which reflects the participation norm) gives rise to an employment motive for using the income tax.     

Human capital and optimal positive taxation of capital income

This paper analyzes optimal linear and non-linear taxes on capital and labor incomes in a life-cycle model of human capital investment, financial savings, and labor supply with heterogenous individuals. A dual income tax with a positive marginal tax rate on not only labor income but also capital income is optimal. The positive tax on capital income serves to alleviate the distortions of the labor tax on human capital accumulation. The optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is lower than that on labor income if savings are elastic compared to investment in human capital, substitution between verifiable and non-verifiable inputs in human capital formation is difficult, and most investments in human capital are verifiable so that education subsidies can directly reduce the tax wedge on learning. Numerical calculations suggest that the optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is substantial.     

Personal taxation of capital income and the financial leverage of firms

Tax competition for capital has led to a trend where many countries levy lower taxes on interest income, often introducing differential taxation between interest and business income. This study analyzes the effect on firm debt usage. We exploit Germany’s 2009 tax reform, which introduced a final withholding tax on interest income with a flat rate 18 percentage points below the unchanged tax rate on income from unincorporated businesses, as a quasi-experiment. The results, based on firm-level panel data, indicate that firms increase their leverage when the tax rate on interest income decreases, albeit to a small degree.     

Shareholder taxation and aggregate dividend payout: Evidence from the tax reform act of 1986

The effect of shareholder taxation on corporate dividend policy is a major controversy in financial economics. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 eliminated the statutory tax disadvantage of dividends versus long-term capital gains for individual shareholders. Using aggregate time series data I find evidence that corporate dividend payout has become more generous in the period after tax reform.     

Dividend taxation and corporate investment: a comparative study between the classical system and imputation system of dividend taxation in the United States and Australia

In recent times a number of countries have initiated some important tax reforms to eliminate the distortions of double taxation. In this context, Australia adopted a dividend imputation system in 1987, while the US employed the 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA). The analysis in this paper examines the effects on the level of corporate capital investment, on proxies for corporate tax rates, financial leverage, liquidity, capital intensity and firm size after controlling for the tax reforms. The empirical results provide evidence that: (1) dividend imputation as introduced in Australia is an effective way to reduce the distortions caused by the traditional system of taxation. (2) Compared with the TRA, dividend imputation has been better able to positively stimulate corporate capital investment. (3) TRA effect on corporate investment is more pronounced in the US for firms having a net operating loss. (4) Individual tax rates play a role in corporate investment decisions in both the US and Australia.

Inflation illusion and the dividend yield: evidence from the UK

We report evidence that the UK dividend yield and expected inflation are positively correlated from 1962 to 1997, but negatively correlated subsequently. Using a commonly used VAR (vector auto-regression)-based procedure we find strong evidence that the positive correlation is caused both by inflation illusion and the effect of inflation on required rates of return. We also find some evidence that it is caused by inflation rationally reducing expected real dividend growth. We find that Chen and Zhao's (2009. “Return Decomposition.” Review of Financial Studies 22 (12): 5213–5249) criticism of the VAR-based procedure has little empirical relevance but that the procedure can be highly sensitive to the choice of data period.     

Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: Reconciling the evidence

This paper evaluates the ability of dividend ratios to predict the equity premium. We conduct an in and out-of-sample comparative study and apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) graphical method to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share and the S&P 500 indices. Preliminary in-sample univariate regressions reveal that in both markets the equity premium contains an element of predictability. However, the considered out-of-sample models outperform the historical moving average only in the UK context. This is confirmed by the graphical diagnostic which further indicates that dividend ratios are useful predictors of UK excess returns. Our paper provides a possible explanation of why dividend ratios might be more informative in the UK market by linking these findings to the disappearing dividend phenomenon. Finally, Campbell and Shiller (1988) identities are employed to account for the time-varying properties of the dividend ratio and dividend growth processes. It is shown that by instrumenting the models with the identities, forecasting ability can be further improved.     

Tax treatment of dividends and capital gains and the dividend decision under dual income tax

The paper analyses efficiency aspects of a dual income tax system with a higher tax on capital gains than dividends. It argues that apart from the distortions to investments claimed in earlier literature, the system puts even more emphasis in creating incentives for entrepreneurs to participate in tax planning. The paper suggests that the owner of a closely held company can avoid all personal taxes on entrepreneurial income by two tax-planning strategies. The first is the avoidance of distributions, which would be taxed at the tax rate on labour income. These funds would instead be invested in the financial markets. The second strategy is a distribute and call-back policy, converting retained profits into new equity capital. Interestingly, the outcome is that investment in real capital is not distorted in the long-run equilibrium. Empirical evidence using microdata is also provided.      

Comment on: “Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution”

The methodology proposed in Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] fails to distinguish between the single unique marginal rate of substitution (MRS) process and the class of valid pricing kernels, of which the MRS is but a particular member. Thus, at best, this methodology explores the properties of some arbitrary pricing kernel, which may differ radically from the true MRS. Furthermore, the estimates of the expected MRS proposed by Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] are highly correlated with ex post shocks, implying that these estimates are not conditional expectations at all. The cure for this misspecification introduces additional econometric problems, suggesting that the model may, in practice, be poorly identified.     

The effect of growth opportunities on the market reaction to dividend cuts: evidence from the 2008 financial crisis

We consider returns from rebalanced and buy and hold portfolios consisting of the same stocks. Theoretical properties are derived using Jensen’s inequality and the Hölder’s Defect Formula. Simulations are used to confirm theory and to investigate ambiguous cases where theory is silent. Rebalancing decreases total return volatility, while buy and hold produces greater expected return. Results are more opaque with respect to Sharpe Ratios and expected geometric means. Our empirical tests are based on portfolios composed of the risk-free asset, CRSP market value returns and returns from five Fama–French industries. While rebalancing reduces volatility and momentum effect, our tests largely favor the buy and hold strategy due to the high relative returns enjoyed by stocks vis-a-vis the risk-free asset. Transactions cost for rebalancing the portfolio are economically negligible.     

Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations

This paper extends the limited work on interest rate expectations to a previously unexploited data set that covers a broad range of EMS and non-EMS foreign currency deposits. We corroborate the earlier finding in the literature that interest rate forecasts are not rational and that agents do not use all available information in an efficient manner; this finding applies to the post-1990 period, thus questioning the assertion of Frankel and Froot [Frankel, J.F., Froot, K.A., 1987a. Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 77, 151] that “the nature of the rejection of rational expectations strongly depends on the sample period”. Although forecast errors on EMS rates are smaller and less volatile than errors on non-EMS rates, expectations on EMS rates are nevertheless biased.     

Tax refunds and income manipulation: evidence from the EITC

Welfare programs are important in terms of reducing poverty, although they create incentives for recipients to maximize their income by either reducing their labor supply or manipulating their taxable income. In this paper, we quantify the extent of such behavioral responses for the earned income tax credit (EITC) in the USA. We exploit the fact that US states can set top-up rates, which means that at a given point in time, workers with the same income receive different tax refunds in different states. Using event studies as well as a border pair design, we document that raising the state EITC leads to more bunching of self-employed tax filers at the first kink point of the tax schedule. While we document a strong relationship up until 2007, we find no effect during the Great Recession. These findings point to important behavioral responses to the largest welfare program in the USA.     

Inventories,credit transactions,and the marginal effective tax rate

It is observed that marginal effective tax rates (METR), as conventionally calculated, can only consider working capital requirements to a limited extent. A formula is derived to incorporate inventory requirements into the calculation and, via a numerical example, it is shown that such an incorporation can radically alter METRs from those conventionally calculated. The analysis is extended to credit transactions without affecting the above conclusion. Thus, if METRs are to be used as a means of evaluating the effects of tax policy on the incentive to invest, working capital requirements need to be explicitly allowed for.