就业增长、投资与初次分配中的劳动报酬占比

本文通过生产函数和联立方程模型,发现在非农就业增长、投资和劳动报酬占比之间存在着密切的相互联系和影响:在劳动力从农业部门转移到现代部门的过程中,由于未能获得与其边际产出相等的工资报酬,使得劳动报酬占比下降而资本所得份额上升,资本所得份额的上升促进了投资,投资的增加保证了非农就业的持续增长。我们通常把劳动报酬占比下降和高投资率视为中国经济失衡的表现之一并给予特殊关注,但是,本文所揭示的劳动报酬占比变化的内在机制不仅反映了中国经济增长的一些典型特征,也表明高投资率和劳动报酬占比下降并不是经济失衡的表现,它们是非农就业增长的必然结果,也是保证非农就业持续增长的关键原因。劳动报酬占比的下降虽然恶化了居民之间的收入分配,却是中国经济模式所必须经历的发展阶段。     

"民工荒"与"技工荒"并存的理论解释及证据——基于投资结构与就业均衡视角的研究

"民工荒"与"技工荒"并存的情况已成为困扰中国劳动力市场健康发展的难题。文章从投资结构与就业均衡视角对此进行理论模型分析,研究发现,在资本约束条件下,技术改造型资本和外延扩大型资本的迅速扩张,导致技术和非技术劳动力需求量的急剧增长,工资刚性导致劳动力供给刚性,而人力资本投资不足则导致劳动力质量上升缓慢,因而劳动力市场中技术与非技术劳动力的供需矛盾造成了"民工荒"与"技工荒"的并存。研究表明,将技术改造型资本投入和外延扩大型资本投入保持与在职培训人力资本投资的均衡增长,那么将不会产生劳动力双重短缺,即有效解决"两荒"并存的难题。     

关于开放条件下收入差距的理论探讨

随着近年来保护贸易的盛行与收入差距的持续扩大,对开放条件下收入不平等的研究成为国际经济学领域的热点.从开放的三种表现形式:商品/服务贸易、资本/劳动力的跨国流动以及技术的传播等角度入手,并结合制度因素,对有关开放与收入差距关系的研究做一回顾.综合来看,无论何种影响机制,最终渠道都是通过提高或降低对技术劳动的需求来影响收入差距,这与传统理论一脉相承.相关研究在放松原有理论假设条件的基础上,将分析角度从宏观转入微观,更侧重于从产业和公司层面对比研究.绝大部分理论认为开放可能导致收入差距扩大而不是降低它们,如何制定适当的国内再分配政策调节收入差距将是今后研究的侧重点.     

国民收入分配对投资消费失衡的影响分析

投资消费失衡严重制约了我国国民经济持续健康发展,国民收入在企业部门、政府部门、住户部门之间的不合理分配是导致我国投资消费失衡的根本原因。国民收入分配对投资消费失衡影响的数理分析和实证分析表明,对投资率、消费率最有影响的是企业部门在国民收入分配中的比重,其次是政府部门在国民收入分配中的比重,影响最小的是住户部门在国民收入分配中的比重。     

Macrodynamic Implications of Income-Transfer Policies for Human Capital Investment and School Effort

The distortion in educational investment in poorer childrenis often attributed to credit market imperfections and henceto the unequal access of children to educational opportunity.However, the distortion might also be attributable to disincentiveeffects that cause children to make inefficient use of educationalopportunities. This possibility is demonstrated for an overlappinggenerations economy with multiple family dynasties in which childrenhave random unobservable abilities and base their school efforton their parents after-tax returns to schooling. Income redistributioncan result in suboptimal effort choices that offset the beneficialeffects of income transfers and sharply lower social welfare.     

合理调节初次分配是促进居民收入增长的中心环节

居民收入水平与经济发展水平应相互适应.目前经济发展水平已有明显上升,居民收入水平也有所提高,但二者之间不适应、不协调的现象依然存在.怎样促进居民收入迅速增长,仍然是宏观调控最具有现实意义的重要课题.从国民收入分配的角度看,居民收入增长主要依存于初次分配,而合理调节初次分配,则是促进居民收入稳定快速增长的中心环节.所谓合理调节,是指既要科学地选择调节初次分配的重点,又要全面而准确地把握调节初次分配的原则和尺度,还要关注协调初次分配和再分配的关系.     

农户投资行为实证研究

农户投资水平如何是现在及将来影响到农业发展的关键性问题。农户投资行为分析具有很强的现实意义。本文对影响农户投资行为的几个关键因素———农户收入、农地收益、农地规模、农业贷款、承包期等如何影响农户投资及影响程度进行实证研究 ,来说明如何提高农户投资水平。     

Impact of international trade under dual labor markets

A country's unemployment rate can be affected by technology choice and the opening of international trade. This general equilibrium model examines the impact of international trade with the presence of dual labor markets in which manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies with different marginal and fixed costs to maximize profits. In a closed economy, it is shown that an increase in labor market efficiency or a population increase induces manufacturing firms to adopt more advanced technologies and the wage rate in the manufacturing sector increases. With the existence of a continuum of technologies, technology choice is not a source of firm heterogeneity. The opening of international trade leads to an increase in the wage rate in the manufacturing sector and the price of the agricultural good. When countries are identical, international trade always increases national welfare.     

Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom

The wage led aggregate demand hypothesis is examined for the United Kingdom over the period 1971–2007. Existing studies disagree on the aggregate demand regime for the UK, and this appears to be due to differing empirical approaches. Studies relying on equation-by-equation estimation procedures tend to find support for wage led aggregate demand in the UK, while the single study using a multiple time series estimation procedure finds no support for the hypothesis. We test the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis in the UK using VAR models estimated on quarterly data employing an alternative identification strategy based on shocks to real earnings. The results provide support for the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis during the period of study. However, the expansionary effects of higher earnings seem to be limited and relatively short-lived.     

长期股权投资收益的税收征管对策研究

由于中国现行税法与会计制度在投资收益的处理上存在差异,使得企业所得税的税收征管方面容易出现漏洞,造成税款流失。因此,投资收益的税收管理问题应引起税务机关的高度重视,应注重加强被投资企业与税务机关的信息沟通,加强税法宣传,堵塞税收征管漏洞,强化对长期股权投资收益的税收管理。     

Investment rates and the aggregate production function

In this paper we consider a simple version of the neoclassical growth model, and carry out an empirical analysis of the main determinants of aggregate investment across countries. The neoclassical growth model predicts that aggregate investment may be influenced by income growth, the capital income share, the relative price of capital, taxes, and other market distortions. We check these investment patterns for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We also decompose investment data into equipment and structures, and explore major factors affecting their relative prices. These empirical exercises shed light into the shape of the neoclassical production function.     

外商直接投资与中国技术进步的实证分析

在不同的阶段外商直接投资的作用是不同的。从1991—1994年的4年间,外商直接投资对中国技术进步的直接效应和间接效应都是不明显的。从1996—2003年的8年间,外商直接投资对中国经济增长做出了直接贡献,但外商直接投资所带来的技术进步而产生的技术外溢是有限的,因而外商直接投资的间接效应是不明显的。外商投资参与度对劳动生产率提高的影响越来越大,外商直接投资在劳动生产率提高中的作用越来越重要。     

投资者情绪、股票错误估值与上市公司投资简

以剩余收益估值模型衡量股票错误估值程度,基于公司层面测度投资者情绪,利用非平衡面板数据模型检验投资投资者情绪如何通过证券市场传导到上市公司从而影响其实际投资行为。实证研究发现,投资者情绪主要通过直接的迎合渠道而非间接的股权融资渠道影响上市公司投资行为,且公司投资在迎合渠道上表现出对投资者情绪的“反迎合机制”,此外不同特征的公司其投资对投资者情绪的敏感度存在横截面差异。     

The Image of Australia. Perceptions of the Australian Economy from the Eighteenth to the Twentieth Century

Recent institutionalist and post-Keynesian work on business cycles continues with the traditional institutionalist supposition that financial bubbles drive cycles; however there has been a growing sense in the literature that household consumption, not business investment, has become the key variable. This paper will show how this is a change from historical institutional theory and it will then discuss how this change pushes income distribution toward a more central role in explaining current cycle dynamics. Specifically, this paper argues that much of the economic growth over the last two decades can be attributed to the top two quintiles borrowing more and the current slow growth can be attributed to high quintile households increasing their consumption while middle income households are continuing to deleverage.     

The Importance of Tax Adjustments When Evaluating Wage Expectations*

Using elicited expectations of future gross salaries, we evaluate characteristics causing German students to make larger or smaller estimation errors. While students seem to underestimate actual salaries by 18 percent, we show that these errors are highly attributable to misconceptions of the progressive income tax. Developing a suitable adjustment procedure, we correct students’ estimates and find that errors decline by 12 percentage points. Conducting regression analyses, we reveal strong connections with students’ age, gender, work experience, secondary school track, and knowledge about student loans. These results change notably if not controlling for students’ misconceptions of the tax system.     

Complexities due to sluggish expansion of backstop technologies

This paper considers an economy using a technology that adds to a stock of pollution. Examples that come to mind are SO₂-emissions from burning coal accumulating in the soil and CO₂-emissions from fossil-energy use which are retained in the atmosphere. The stock of pollutants is subject to natural decay, albeit not necessarily of the simple often assumed linear type. In addition, a clean or so-called backstop technology is available that requires costly investments but is characterized by low variable costs (e.g., solar energy or wind power). The costly investments imply a slow build-up of the capacity of the backstop. On the modelling side, this is an essential extension of most of the literature that considers the unrealistic case where a backstop is instantaneously available. The second extension the present paper makes is to consider not only the planning problem but also the competitive outcomes. One of the interesting results is that stable limit cycles may characterize the socially optimal long-run outcome as well as the competitive equilibrium. In a competitive equilibrium pollution-control policy is not necessarily optimal in the sense of corresponding with the social optimum. Although cycling can occur in a competitive equilibrium, just as in the social optimum, relaxation of the control increases the set of parameter values for which complex and unstable behavior arises.     

分工思想何以被忽视——以马歇尔为中心的思想史考察

分工思想是古典经济学的重要组成部分,但在马歇尔之后的新古典经济学中却一度被忽视。其缘由何在？本文以马歇尔为中心,做了思想史的考察。发现马歇尔的分工思想内含于对组织的分析中,这一分析采用了生物类比的方法。该方法与经济力学方法的兼容性是有争议的,这引发了20世纪20-30年代有关“报酬递增与代表性企业”的争论,使主流经济学走向了“去经济生物学,近经济力学”这一背离马歇尔思想的道路,这是分工思想被忽视的重要原因。     

环境投资的法律保障新论

目前，环境投资已成为一个非常重要的投资领域，同时构成了环境保护的重要部分，其范围和力度越来越大，它从一个侧面体现了人类对环境关注程度的加大。但在现实当中，人们投入了可观的资金却收获不大，没有达到环境投资应有的效益和预期目的。因此，本文对这一现象进行了反思，认为传统的投资模式和思维方式限制了环境投资效益的产生，人们有必要重新认识环境投资的概念．强化负环境投资和间接环境投资的概念，使正环境投资与负环境投资、直接环境投资与问接环境投资相得益彰，达到良性的环境投资效果。     

Perpetual growth,the labor share,and robots

ABSTRACT

The recent literature on the economic effects of machine learning, robotization and artificial intelligence suggests that there may be an upcoming wave of substitution of human labor by machines. We argue that these new technologies may lead to so-called perpetual growth, i.e. growth of per capita income with a non-progressing state of technology. We specify an exact parameter threshold beyond which perpetual growth emerges, and argue that ongoing technological change may bring the threshold in reach. We also show that in a state of perpetual growth, factor-eliminating technological progress reduces the role of labor in the production process and that this leads to a rising wage rate but ever-declining share of wage income. We present simulation experiments on several policy options to combat this inequality, including a universal basic income as well as an option in which workers become owners of ‘robots’.     

The Differential Impact of Public and Private Governance Institutions on the Different Modes of Foreign Investment

This paper examines the respective impacts of public and private governance institutions on foreign direct and foreign portfolio investment inflows. We present two hypotheses: (1) there is a strong correlation between the quality of a country’s public governance institutions and the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) received while the quality of its private governance institutions has no further discernible impact on this correlation; (2) there is a strong correlation between the quality of a country’s public governance institutions and the amount of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) received while the quality of its private governance institutions has a further positive impact on this correlation. Our findings, which are based on panel data analysis, show both hypotheses to be valid.