中国金银币市场解读之二红楼情结与投资策略

金银币投资中的红楼情结 在中国传统文学领域,《红楼梦》无疑算得上是鸿篇巨作了.一个贾宝玉一个林妹妹的凄美爱情故事,曾以文学、戏剧、美术等各种各样的艺术形式出现,受到了社会各阶层人士的喜爱.     

中国金银币市场解读之三憨态国宝奔腾骏马

金银币投资正走向一个短差利润时代 从国家1979年发行金银币至今,已走过了20多个年头.与以往不同的是,金银币收藏家与投资者对于早期币的投资回报已一目了然.随着时间的流逝,市场流通量减少直至稀缺,在物以稀为贵的价值调配规律下,早期币价格呈现大幅度的抬升,投资利润由此产生.但从去年2、3月份开始,这一状况正发生本质化的改变,以<红楼梦>彩金币为例,从去年2月下旬开始一路走高,短短两个月的时间,就已爬到4700元的高位,升幅达104.34%,让不少沿袭老套路的收藏者措手不及.     

投资金银币要讲精品意识

金银纪念币近年的行情更多体现出的是它的投机价值，其中彩色金银纪念币是主要代表，投机性行情使得近年的币市行情具有了暴涨暴跌的特点，市场风险比较大。在此，笔者提出金银纪念币精品投资概念，目的是为了在提高投资收益的同时有效降低投资风险，让投资者分享金银纪念币的未来价值。     

建立平台 行业自律 规范金银币市场

我国内地金银币市场已初具规模。但从2004年开始,出现了制假贩假、恶意炒作等问题;而金银币本身又不具备投资功能,买易卖难。规范金银币市场,应设立统一集中的交易平台,保证金银币作为法定货币的严肃性,解决金银币回购变现问题,使金银币成为更有效的投资工具;应组建金银币经销商协会自律组织,制定统一的金银币交易管理制度。     

金银币的长期牛市趋势不可逆转

最近一段时间,受奥运会第一、第二、第三组纪念币市场价格波动的影响,整个币市人气骤然降温,恐慌性的“空气”弥漫北京、上海市场,经营户和投资者均感受“春寒料峭”。特别是,1997年的行情泡沫破灭历历在目,更加剧了市场人士的忧虑。投资者担心“金银币的熊市是否提前到来”？“1997年的崩盘是否会重现”？鉴此,笔者通过自己在资本市场的经验以及在金银币市场的投资经验,得出这样一个结论：中国金银币长期向好趋势不变,调整是为了使行情走得更好更远,以价值投资和收藏的心态买入金银币是目前调整行情中最好的策略。     

生肖金银币的投资收藏

金银币近来深受广大投资者青睐,是因为它所具有的投资性和收藏性功能。尤其是生肖金银币,以十二生肖为图案,精湛的工艺把动物刻画得惟妙惟肖。齐全的规格使投资者有多元的选择,独有的艺术风格和浓郁的民族特色,更令生肖金银币享誉投资收藏群体中。     

“老、精、稀”金银币的投资价值

近些年来,金银币市场中的“老、精、稀”品种持续走强引起了很多投资者的关注。在“老、精、稀”金银币中,“老”是指发行年份早的金银币,一般指发行时间在2000年之前;“精”是指题材优秀,铸造工艺精湛的金银币;“稀”则表示发行量稀少,发行量一般应小于10000枚,要求更苛刻者为小于3000枚。     

世博会金银币投资不宜盲从

央行于日前发行中国2010年上海世界博览会第一组金银纪念币(简称世博会金银币),该套纪念币共3枚,其中1/3盎司金币最大发行量5万枚,2枚1盎     

“老、精、稀”金银币的投资价值

近些年来,金银币市场中的老、精、稀品种持续走强引起了很多投资者的关注。在老、精、稀金银币中,老是指发行年份早的金银币,一般指发行时间在2000年之前;精是指题材优秀,铸造工艺精湛的金银币;稀则表示发行量稀少,发行量一般应小于10000枚,要求更苛刻者为小于3000枚。金银币价值仍被低估目前的金银币,尤其是其中的老精稀币的价格仍存在被低估的情况。     

金银币的现状及市场趋势

自从2011年6月以来,金银币市场逐步退烧,虽然屡有微澜,却无法掀起大的波浪。今年春节后,更是每况愈下。很多客户都会问,金银币市场到底怎么了?笔者认为这多少跟当前的经济大环境有些关系。实际上,通过回顾金银币30多年的发展不难发现,其走势与国家经济发展形势密切相关——但凡经济形势好转,金银     

Does gold glitter in the long-run? Gold as a hedge and safe haven across time and investment horizon

During times of market turmoil, investors often seek to mitigate risks associated with traditional investment assets such as equities and debt. The hedging and safe-haven properties of gold are examined in this paper for investors with short- and long-run horizons. Utilizing wavelet analysis, we find that gold acts as a hedge for a variety of international equity and debt markets for horizons of up to one year. The safe haven properties of gold during financial crises are further established, with gold shown to act as a safe haven for equity investors for long-run horizons of up to one year. However, during the economic contractions of the early 1980s gold is found not to act as a safe haven, displaying a positive relationship with equities across a range of horizons.     

Closed-end investment companies: Historic returns and investment strategies

Studies conducted in the past have identified inefficiencies in the market for Closed-End Investment Company (CEIC) shares. In addition, studies have demonstrated the potential for trading strategies to exploit these inefficiencies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possibility of achieving excess returns through the utilization of relatively simple strategies not requiring continuous monitoring of discount(s) or frequent trading. Our investigation demonstrates that realizing excess returns through the use of simple mechanical trading strategies will not be possible.     

Minimum return guarantees,investment caps,and investment flexibility

We study the merits of capped retirement products with guarantee for investors who have the flexibility to dynamically adjust their investment strategy. All contracts under consideration are fairly priced such that the net profit of the provider is zero. Without the rider, an expected utility maximizing CRRA investor does not want an investment cap. Here, she commits herself to a strategy a priori. With the flexibility rider, the optimization problem changes and the optimal strategy is a response to an exogenously set price. A fair pricing then anticipates the optimal response of the investor. We show that the maximum expected utility of the investor can, for anticipated fairly priced products, be obtained for a finite cap. Thus, a capped product design can give a Pareto improvement to the otherwise uncapped contract version.     

Risk-shifting and investment asymmetry

I show that when shareholders can change not only the variance of the future firm value, but also its asymmetry, they can shift costly risk to bondholders while lowering the firm risk, and more importantly, the equity risk and the probability of bankruptcy. The implication of this result is that risk-shifting behavior can be more beneficial to shareholders than currently perceived in the literature.     

Monetary randomness and investment

This paper develops a neoclassical model in which the behavior of the money supply affects investment by affecting the real distribution of asset returns. Investment depends on wealthholders' demand for capital. A stochastic money growth rule influences portfolio choice by affecting the distribution of the inflation rate. The variance of inflation matters to wealthholders because of the existence of assets with returns that are not indexed to changes in the price level: money and bonds which are contracted in nominal terms. In a rational expectations environment, asset demands will thus be sensitive to the distribution of the money growth rate. Our principle conclusion is that an increase in the variance of the money growth rate lowers investment, which complements Tobin's (1965) result that an increase in the mean stimulates capital accumulation. The paper also represents a step toward incorporating an asset market into a macroeconomic model in a manner which takes account of Lucas' (1976) criticism of econometric policy evaluation. All variables in the model, including asset return distributions, are functions of technology, preferences and the money supply rule. Further, expectations are rational.     

Egalitarianism and international investment

This study identifies how country differences on a key cultural dimension—egalitarianism—influence international investment flows. A society's cultural orientation toward egalitarianism is manifested by intolerance for abuses of market and political power and a desire for protecting less powerful actors. We show egalitarianism to be based on exogenous factors including social fractionalization, dominant religion circa 1900, and war experience from the 19th century. We find a robust influence of egalitarianism distance on cross-national flows of bond and equity issuances, syndicated loans, and mergers and acquisitions. An informal cultural institution largely determined a century or more ago, egalitarianism exercises its effect on international investment via an associated set of consistent contemporary policy choices. But even after controlling for these associated policy choices, egalitarianism continues to exercise a direct effect on cross-border investment flows, likely through its direct influence on managers' daily business conduct.     

Industry policy,cross-region investment,and enterprise investment efficiency

The introduction of industry policies creates a non-market-oriented policy arbitrage space, which in turn triggers enterprises to adopt "strategic" investments to obtain government policy preferences, which may induce irrational over-investment behaviors and even lead to long-term investment inefficiencies. For an empirical study of the impact of industry policy for the cross-region enterprise investment in specific locations, we manually collected information on industry policy in various regions, as well as data on the establishment of subsidiaries of Chinese listed companies from 2006 to 2019.The results show that enterprises are more likely to invest in regions supported by industry policies. If the enterprise's location is not supported by policies, the impact of this policy "gap" will be strengthened. We find that the higher the level of finance in the region where the enterprise is located, the greater the possibility of the enterprise's cross-region investment. Our research also shows that private enterprise has more substantial incentives to engage in "policy arbitrage", and state-owned enterprises are less affected. In china, a lot of enterprises in regions with high returns on capital have been investing in regions with low returns has increased. However, the increased intensity of investment in low-return regions will significantly inhibit the production efficiency of these enterprises. Our findings help clarify the effect of public policies on the enterprise's investment behavior and efficiency, which enriches the research on the impact of government macroeconomic policies on enterprise micro decision-making. We believe that, when promoting regional industrial upgrades through industry policies, it is necessary to guide enterprises to follow market rules to make market-oriented investments.     

Smooth investment

In the classical portfolio optimization problem considered by Merton, the resulting constant proportion investment plan requires a diffusive trading strategy. This means that, within any arbitrarily small time interval, the investor must impractically both buy and sell stocks. We study the problems of a mean-square and a power utility investor for whom the trading strategy is constrained to be smooth, i.e. nondiffusive. This means that over sufficiently small time intervals, the investor is either a seller or a buyer of stocks. The mathematical framework is built around quadratic objectives such that trading activity is punished quadratically. Mean-square utility is quadratic, and power utility is covered by quadratic punishment of distance to Merton’s power utility portfolio. We present semi-explicit solutions and, in a series of numerical illustrations, show the impact of trading constraints on the portfolio decision over the investment horizon.     

Hedonic investment

Investing and consuming may not be so different as traditional economic theory has understood them. The consumer research literature has begun to view consumption not simply as rational decisionmaking, but as a more multisensory activity in which emotion and fantasy play important, if not essential, roles. This new perspective has been extended by Holt (1995) in a matrix of metaphors in which consumption can be viewed as an interaction with objects and/or other persons as an end in itself and/or a means toward toward other ends. This paper theorizes how this matrix might apply to investment and uses a literary analysis of the best-selling The Motley Fool Investment Guide to examine whether or not our knowledge of consumers might in this way inform our understanding of investors.