Economists' Opinions of Economists' Work

A bstract .   Economists' credibility has been waning in recent years. Critics usually cite the profession's preoccupation with abstract reasoning and its focus on seemingly irrelevant topics that hold little interest for individuals outside the discipline. While economic science has enormous potential for improving living standards, the profession's adverse reputation is indicative of a discipline seemingly void of any social contribution. This article presents the results of a recently conducted survey of professional economists. The survey was undertaken to ascertain economists' opinions of their own professional work, including the progress of economic research, its usefulness for society, and factors that determine the publication of that research.     

Do Wall Street economists believe in Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule?

We use data from the Wall Street Journal’s semi-annual survey of professional economists to test whether individual economists’ six-month-ahead predictions of real GDP growth, unemployment, short-term interest rates and inflation reflect Okun’s Law and the Taylor Rule. We conclude the economists believe real growth is less responsive to unemployment-rate changes than the textbook version of Okun’s Law; we also find the economists believe the Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates by placing more weight on unemployment and less weight on inflation than the Taylor Rule prescribes.     

The Uses of Authority in EconomicsShared Intellectual Frameworks as the Foundation of Personal Persuasion

Why do economists believe what they believe? Why do they not all believe the same things? Our answer to these questions revolves around the nature, variety, and uses of authority in economics. Our data are the various frameworks that economists, knowingly and unknowingly, employ to formulate their questions and organize their intellectual endeavors. We call these devices patristic traditions, or cultural and intellectual frameworks, or governing legacies, or several other phrases. They all connote authority systems, traceable to specific intellectual or cultural precursors, or authorities. Our central proposition is that the specific set of governing legacies that each individual economist possesses effectively guides his or her thinking. By recognizing these authorities we can more effectively understand others' minds, understand our own, and increase our ability to persuade. So our propositions concern the uses of authorities—how economists of the past have used them and how we ourselves use them, but especially how we might use them to productive ends.     

The Economic Impact and Civic Pride Effects of Sports Teams and Mega‐Events: Do The Public and the Professionals Agree?

Often sports leagues, organising committees, and team owners justify the use of public funds to build sports stadiums by the perceived economic impacts and civic pride generated by the teams or mega‐events. Since the 1980s many economic studies have examined the economic impact and civic pride created by professional sports teams. Most of the economic literature finds sports teams or mega‐events have little or no economic impact, but there are mixed findings on the magnitude of civic pride. Overall, most of the economic literature suggests that the benefits created by sports teams or events do not outweigh the cost of public subsidies provided. We conduct a survey of public opinion on US residents’ perceptions of economic impacts and civic pride benefits from mega‐events such as the Super Bowl and the Winter Olympics. Our study asks the question: Do residents believe that mega‐events and sports teams generate positive economic impacts and civic pride or not? We find that, like economists, the public doubts that public funding of mega‐events is a good idea.     

a very rare animal

What are the career prospects for economists? John Regan of Citicorp argues that although there are few openings for professional economists, qualifications in economics are valuable for a career in industry or business.     

Member and leader satisfaction with a professional association: an exchange perspective

The theories of exchange and of collective action were used to guide a study of the sources of satisfaction of the participants in a medical specialty society. This survey of two groups of participants, leaders and members, showed that the leaders of this nationally recognized professional association were more satisfied than were the regular members; that even though leaders and members have similar professional interests, the two groups evaluated the association differently; and that the involvement of leaders in the activities of other professional associations affected their satisfaction with this association. These results indicate empirical support for exchange theory and for the distinction among kinds of rewards made by the theory of collective action. Structural sources of satisfaction and dissatisfaction are identified for future research.     

Bridging the communications gap with the ordinary citizen

This research note discusses findings from an exploratory study of people's perceptions of the economic situation in October 1981. The survey, as did earlier ones, reveals that there is a wide communications gap between governments, politicians, economists, journalists vis-à-vis members of the general public.     

Gender differences in macroeconomic expectations: evidence from Turkey

The aim of this study is to examine how men and women’s expectations differ about macroeconomic outlook. We examine whether there exist similarities or differences in men and women’s macroeconomic expectations. For this paper, 365 of Turkey’s leading business economists, strategists, portfolio managers and industry managers participated in a survey titled “Economic Expectations in Turkey for 2010.” The survey investigates gender differences in regards to four macroeconomic expectations; namely, inflation, unemployment, growth and exports. The survey participants are first classified according to their gender, and then their economic perceptions are analyzed. Initially, Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics are implemented to test normality of data. Then, the Chi-square test of independence is used to compare macroeconomic expectations of men and women. The empirical findings show that macroeconomic expectations of males and females are not statistically different for inflation, unemployment, and exports. On the other hand, macroeconomic expectations of males and females are statistically different only for economic growth at a 10% level. The results indicate that gender is not one of the main determinants for macroeconomic expectations.     

Management Accountants’ Occupational Prestige Within the Company: A Social Identity Theory Perspective

Abstract

Professional associations and researchers in management accounting have attempted to increase the prestige of management accountants. Although studies have suggested that occupational prestige is important, the prestige of management accountants within the employing organisation and its consequences are still not fully understood. Building on social identity theory, we investigate the effect of occupational prestige, as perceived by management accountants, on organisational–professional conflict. We suggest that prestige can mitigate conflict because management accountants with high prestige will identify more strongly with their organisation, as they see it as a source of self-esteem and might believe that they are taken more seriously by managers. At the same time, we hypothesise that prestige exerts an indirect conflict-increasing effect via professional identification. This is based on the idea that prestige may cause proud management accountants to start to identify more strongly with their profession and become hard-liners, unwilling to compromise the values associated with their profession in the interest of the firm. Results from a series of three surveys support the indirect conflict-increasing effect. Moreover, the results suggest a direct conflict-reducing effect of perceived prestige. The implications for research and practice are discussed.     

RECENT PROGRESS IN APPLIED BAYESIAN ECONOMETRICS

Abstract. Bayesian methods are widely used by theoretical econometricians and statisticians but have not won widespread acceptance from applied researchers. After briefly describing the basic of the Bayesian approach, we discuss several issues relating to the empirical application of Bayesian methods. The existing Bayesian empirical literature is also partially summarized. The remainder of the paper offers a non-technical survey of some recent computational advances in Bayesian econometrics. The overall goal is to persuade economists that Bayesian methods are both computationally feasible and easy to implement in empirical research.     

Three Kinds of Economists:

A bstract . The diversity of thought among American economistsis investigated using samples of the memberships of the American Economic Association, the Union for Radical Political Economists and the Association for Evolutionary Economics. Discriminant analysis reveals a complex web of theoretical and organizational integration and separatism involving theoretical orientation in economics, emulative economists, scholarly research focus, organizational membership, and political values. The modal radical economist espouses a radical political economic philosophy and pursues Marxist/radical scholarship in an academic setting. The modal neoclassical economist , radical in neither disciplinary nor personal political beliefs, is found, more often than the other types, in nonacademic administrative work. Marxist/radical and institutionalist scholarship are mutually exclusive. Other dimensions of the professional role, as well as a number of social and biographical background characteristics, do not differentiate between types of economists.     

NIGHT LIGHTS IN ECONOMICS: SOURCES AND USES1

Night lights, as detected by satellites, are increasingly used by economists, typically as a proxy for economic activity. The growing popularity of these data reflects either the absence, or the presumed inaccuracy, of more conventional economic statistics, like national or regional GDP. Further growth in use of night lights is likely, as they have been included in the AidData geoquery tool for providing subnational data, and in geographic data that the Demographic and Health Survey links to anonymized survey enumeration areas. Yet, this ease of obtaining night lights data may lead to inappropriate use, if users fail to recognize that most of the satellites providing these data were not designed to assist economists, and have features that may threaten validity of analyses based on these data, especially for temporal comparisons, and for small and rural areas. In this paper, we review sources of satellite data on night lights, discuss issues with these data, and survey some of their uses in economics.     

The Forsaken‐Liberty Syndrome: Looking at Published Judgments to Say Whether Economists Reach a Conclusion

Do economists reach a conclusion on a given policy issue? One way to answer the question is to survey economists at large. Another is to look at the published judgments of economists who have gone on the record. Relative to an anonymous survey, going on the record makes for much greater accountability, and presumably more personal responsibility. I discuss 11 studies of economists’ published judgments. Several of them show greater support for liberalization than found among economists at large. This is offered as evidence of what I call the forsaken‐liberty syndrome. I discuss the nature of this test of such syndrome and point to some of the larger questions to which it relates.     

Economics,economists, and public policy☆

This article examines the role of economics and economists in shaping public policy by, first, examining the employment of economists in government, academe, and the private sector. In the United States, only a minority of Ph.D. economists (about 12 percent) are employed in government, and several important departments of the federal government employ few economists. The article goes on to illustrate the pitfalls that economists face in assisting and advising with public policy by examining the adoption of statistical profiling in Unemployment Insurance. The article concludes that, if the economics profession and economic research are to be effective in shaping public policy, then academic economists must become more directly involved with policy makers in government and decision makers in business.     

What Price Drug Use? The Contribution of Economics to an Evidence‐Based Drugs Policy

Abstract.  This paper presents a review of the recent economics literature in the area of illicit drug use. Particular attention is paid to the economics of addiction and the rational addiction model, the welfare economics framework for analysing the social costs of drug use, and the attempts that have been made by economists to evaluate recent or proposed policy interventions. A dominant theme in this review is the problem of poor data availability. This is particularly true when it comes to implementing the Rational Addiction model, but it is also apparent in the literature on estimating the costs of illicit drug use to society as a whole. One of the main conclusions of this review is that until recently public policy has not been particularly influenced by research carried out by economists. It is not clear whether this is because economists have had to grapple with inadequate data, and hence their conclusions are couched in uncertainty, or whether it is because drugs researchers have assumed a very limited role for economists in their analysis.     

Adolph Löwe's Political Economics: Instrumentalism as Enlightened Intervention

A bstract Adolph Lowe's work was dedicated chiefly to developing "political economics" as a foundation for economic theory and instrumental analysis to direct a politically free economy along the path of economic growth
This paper argues that the public management inherent in instrumentalism is not likely to be acceptable in the U S or the U K, except in national economic emergency Yet, the formerly planned economies of central and eastern Europe, whose history is one of stringent control, may have a political preference for a Lowe type of instrumentalism to avoid the results of uncontrolled market processes
The reception accorded Lowe's political economics by economists, as members of a professional community, reflects their methodological preferences and policy views Those who are skeptical of the market clearing capability of the price mechanism, and explain capitalist development as an ongoing historical process, are more likely to be appreciative of instrumental analysis as a policy tool     

Patents for genetic inventions: a tool to promote technological advance or a limitation for upstream inventions?

Today's conventional wisdom among economists and lawyers is heavily weighted toward the proposition that strong and broad patent rights are conducive to economic progress. Concerns have been raised as to the extent to which strong patent rights could build up barriers to follow-up research and thus hinder technological advance. This poses a number of difficulties particularly in the area of genetics with respect to the scope of protection and the definition of what is patentable. This article considers the problems of ‘anti-commons’, limitations for upstream inventions, patent thickets and royalty stacking with licenses for genetic inventions. A survey of 53 biotechnology companies in Switzerland builds the empirical basis of the investigation. The survey results confirm that the concepts of ‘anti-commons’, ‘patent thickets’ and ‘royalty stacking’ are indeed relevant. However, they are not highly relevant for the Swiss biotechnology industry from an economic point of view. A broad research exemption combined with a protection limited to concrete disclosure functions of DNA patents and compulsory licensing arrangements are considered as feasible remedies for overcoming certain difficulties with gene patents.     

What governs firm-level R&D: Internal or external factors?

Two parallel streams of research investigating the determinants of corporate R&D exist: one from economics and the other from management. The economists’ variables tend to reflect the firm’s external environment while the explanatory variables used by management scientists are commonly internal to the firm. This paper combines both approaches to test for the relative importance of each type of factor using firm-level data on large Australian companies from 1990 to 2005. Our evidence suggests that most of a firm’s R&D activity can be explained by time-invariant factors which we believe relate to internal and specific characteristics such as the firm’s managerial dimensions, competitive strategy and how it communicates with employees. Of the remaining time-varying portion, we find that past profits, the rate of growth of the industry and the level of R&D activity over the firm’s industry is pertinent. These results are suggestive since we cannot clearly identify the extent to which the firm’s internal behaviour is conditioned by its external environment.     

Who Do Heterodox Economists Think They Are?1

This paper attempts to engage with the established debate on the nature of heterodox economics. However, it starts from the position that previous attempts to classify and identify heterodox economics have been biased towards a priori definition. The paper aims to inform the discussion of the nature of heterodoxy with some empirical analysis. The paper examines survey data collected from a small/medium‐sized sample of AHE members on the core concepts in economics. The paper applies factor analysis to the data. It also applies principles of biological taxonomy, and thence cluster analysis to the problem. The paper finds that within the self‐identified community of self‐identified heterodox economists there is little agreement as to whether members are pluralist, or what their attitude is to the mainstream. Indeed, there is little agreement on any core concepts or principles. The paper argues that there is little structure to heterodox economics beyond that provided by pre‐existing (or constituent) schools of thought. Based on this study, heterodox economics appears a complex web of interacting individuals and as a group is a fuzzy set. These results would lead us to question further strict distinctions between heterodox, mainstream and pluralist economists.     

Introduction: Input–Output Analysis of Interindustry R&D Spillovers

As an introduction to this special issue on intersectoral R&D spillovers, I shall first explain what these spillovers are and how economists try to estimate them. I shall then describe the seven papers selected for this issue from the expanding literature on R&D spillovers, summarize their major results and suggest further avenues of research in this area.