Investigation of causality based on complex use of statistical methods (case study of social research)

The article deals with the problem of revealing cause–effect relations in the social research by a complex of statistical methods. The ways for solving the problem for experimental and non-experimental data are regarded. In the research the role of the statistical methods in formation of causal relation hypotheses is revealed and the methods of hypotheses verification in conditions of experiment or upon latent structure modelling are discussed. The possibilities of the use of the factor analysis and the analysis of variance in revealing cause–effect relations are also considered. Special attention is paid to the interpretation of the analysis results depending on the character of the empirical data and the conditions they were obtained in. The approaches to causal relations revealing based on the development of the schemes of the complex analysis of the empirical data by the statistical methods aimed at investigation of the cause and effect relation in a long-term research are suggested. We take into account the hierarchical structure of the schemes reflecting the structure of the subject of cognition, the specificity of which requires the use of “rigid” and “flexible” models in combination. Its variant could be the method of structural equation modelling. The article gives an example of the research of causal relations in the assessment of the quality of education services in higher institution. Each stage of the assessment is provided with building of certain “rigid” or “flexible” mathematical models. Their combination allows using the obtained quality parameters as an instrument of regulation of interaction between education service providers and clients.     

战略管理思想与战略管理会计

20世纪60、70年代的战略管理思想指出了战略的长期导向以及组织内外部相互匹配的本质;80年代的波特战略管理思想对企业外部产业环境与竞争对手更加关注;90年代迄今的战略管理思想则聚焦于企业内部资源尤其是无形资源与能力。80年代产生的SMA突破了传统管理会计的内向性局限,具有明显的外向性与长期性特征。90年代迄今的战略管理思想拓展了SMA的研究视角,为21世纪的SMA提供了新的研究维度——企业无形的资源与能力。本文认为,需重新认识SMA的特征。随着战略管理思想的不断发展,21世纪的SMA作为交叉学科,内容与方法将更加丰富和完善。     

项目组织的基因构件方法化研究

随着时代的发展,传统的项目管理的方法有力地促进了项目的完成;但是,它也显露出一系列的不足和缺陷。为此,将从人体基因的角度,对项目管理的方法进行基因构件化;从基因成分的确定,到基因组的设计,再到基因构件化的设计,从而构建起一个基因构件化的模型。在此基础上,对模型的实现平台进行了阐述,将会有力地促进项目组织对环境的适应性和项目的成功。     

城市用地对经济增长贡献的分析

随着经济的高速发展,城市用地扩张在城市经济中所起的作用越来越明显。目前城市建设用地的投放被称为"地根",和货币金融政策"银根"并驾其驱作为宏观调控的两大主要手段。中央政府和地方政府由于存在着利益分配的问题,因而掌握土地实权的地方行政将土地投放作为发展经济的重要驱动。但是土地投入对经济的贡献到底有多大,应该用什么样政策来管理土地投入使用,通过利用改进后的索洛模型来分析,得出的统计结果和模型假设相矛盾。出现这种不合的原因归结为两点,一是中国统计数据质量不高,二是模型适用经济体大小范围。但是能从统计结果大致看出三种要素在经济增长中地位的高低,资本最为重要,其次为劳动力,最后是土地投入。土地投入的作用很小。只要土地投入达到必需量后,土地的进一步投入带来的经济增长很小。最后,进一步提出相关的政策建议,中国应该走"聪明增长"的道路,而不是盲目地扩大城市用地范围。     

我国上市公司董事会模式研究

董事会是公司治理的核心层,董事会模式对上市公司的发展具有重要意义。文章讨论了我国上市公司的董事会模式及存在问题,并从提高董事会和监事会的运作效率方面提出改进董事会模式的建议与对策。     

乡村振兴背景下生鲜农产品流通RFID技术应用标准化研究

随着乡村振兴战略不断推进,农业问题再次成为人们关注的焦点。生鲜农产品高效流通为农业的可持续发展提供良好的支撑。高质量高效率的生鲜农产品流通关乎农业的可持续发展、农村振兴和农民增收。文章基于文献述评与研究思考,分析RFID技术在生鲜农产品流通中的应用及标准化现状,探讨乡村振兴背景下生鲜农产品流通RFID应用标准化的瓶颈与发展对策。研究结果表明,在生鲜农产品流通过程中,商业模式的创新是制约RFID技术应用标准化顺利推进的首要因素;技术创新在助推RFID系统革新过程中具有重要作用,要加大技术创新力度,提升RFID技术水准;要完善标准化人才培养模式,培育高素质复合型人才,优化人才结构;建立标准化协同工作机制,健全标准化共享平台。     

Systems analysis approach to research on German education

The paper shows some of the experience of the empirical research on demographic accounting which is being carried out at Heidelberg University, F.R. of Germany. The first part of the paper presents the system including the subsystems (population system, educational system, manpower system). It contains some suggestions how to measure the connections between the subsystems. The first measure is a measure of substitution, the second deals with the degree of general use of a certain educational level in terms of occupation.

In the second part of the paper special reference is given to the empirical Heidelberg studies of the educational subsystem. At present the main purpose of the project is to try out the functional relations between the various transition rates involved in the system. There-upon a sensibility analysis will be developed which provides empirical data as to which transition rates are of strategic relevance for educational planning. Here the transition rates are defined as dependent variables, certain influencing factors or determinants as independent variables. Empirical results of the structural analysis will be published at the end of 1968, those of the sensibility analysis at the end of 1969.     

央企管理者来源对企业绩效的影响效果研究

本文将央企集团的高管作为研究对象,实证检验央企高管来源对集团绩效的影响,拟为央企集团经理人选聘的作用机制提供经验证据。研究发现:总经理岗位轮换与集团绩效的关系因继任情景不同,产生不同的结果。一方面,来自内部晋升的董事长会过度干预执行层的工作而导致企业绩效下降,这种情况在总经理岗位轮换的时候更为严重;另一方面,高管团队的稳定性对岗位轮换的总经理产生重要影响。因此,实施董事长轮岗制度,同时保证经理层的稳定性更有利于企业的发展。本文研究有助于深化认识央企高管晋升机制、高管变更的经济后果,并为国有企业高管聘任机制改革提供经验启示。     

The creative response and the endogenous dynamics of pecuniary knowledge externalities: an agent based simulation model

The paper elaborates an agent based simulation model (ABM) to explore the endogenous long-term dynamics of knowledge externalities. ABMs, as a form of artificial cliometrics, allow the analysis of the effects of the reactivity of firms caught in out-of-equilibrium conditions conditional on the levels of endogenous knowledge externalities stemming from the levels of knowledge connectivity of the system. The simulation results confirm the powerful effects of endogenous knowledge externalities. At the micro-level, the reactions of firms caught in out-of-equilibrium conditions yield successful effects in the form of productivity enhancing innovations, only in the presence of high levels of knowledge connectivity and strong pecuniary knowledge externalities. At the meso-level, the introduction of innovations changes the structural characteristics of the system in terms of knowledge connectivity that affect the availability of knowledge externalities. Endogenous centrifugal and centripetal forces continually reshape the structure of the system and its knowledge connectivity. At the macro system level, an out-of-equilibrium process leads to a step-wise increase in productivity combined with non-linear patterns of output growth characterized by significant oscillations typical of the long waves in Schumpeterian business cycles.     

Identifying temporal relationships in educational planning

Planning is the first activity in the management of any organization or system. The whole process of planning is built around the specification of a set of key variables and the associated achievement levels. In any plan the target levels of the key variables are sought to be achieved by means of the provision of various inputs by the organization or system. One of the underlying fundamental aspects of planning concerns the temporal relationships between the key variables and the organizational inputs. These temporal relationships are important because the achievement of the key variables, within a specified period of time, depends on how well the organizational inputs are matched with these variables. Hence, identifying such temporal relationships becomes necessary. This paper describes the use of multivariate time series analysis in identifying temporal relationships in the planning of an education system. The implications of such an identification are also pointed out.     

Sustainable development of global entrepreneurship: infrastructure and perspectives

Development of the modern global entrepreneurship is one of the most perspective and promising means of overcoming the consequences of the global economic crisis, as well as prevention of future crises of economic systems, as it ensures full level of optimization of production and distribution processes. The purpose of the article is to determine perspectives of sustainable development of the global entrepreneurship. For determining the level of sustainability of development of the modern global entrepreneurship, the authors use the methods of statistical analysis of time rows (method of horizontal and trend analysis). The authors perform a complex analysis of dynamics of development of global companies and performed evaluation of their sustainability. Also, the necessity for changing the model of managing the development of modern global entrepreneurship for increasing its sustainability is substantiated. As a result, it is concluded that modern global entrepreneurship is developing in the unstable way, and practical recommendations are offered for solving this problem. A perspective model of sustainable development of the modern global entrepreneurship is developed and presented. A certain limitation of the results of the performed research is the framework character of the offered recommendations.

     

中国兵器工业第X基地薪酬体系的问题分析与改进措施

本文以国有科研企业为研究对象,通过对中国兵器工业第F基地实地研究,剖析了基地原有的薪酬方案,并探索适合基地发展和管理要求的薪酬实践,重新提出了改进方案。本文首先从薪酬管理在现代人力资源管理中的基础作用入手,紧紧围绕基地的薪酬现状,提出了研究的基本思路、内容与方法,概括介绍了多种薪酬理论,为进一步研究基地的薪酬改进方案奠定了理论基础;随后论文着重分析与评价了基地的薪酬现状,指出薪酬方案改进的必要性。在薪酬方案的设计中,从战略的角度介绍了薪酬方案设计的指导原则和一般程序。最后在前两部分理论和研究的基础上,结合现实管理需要,对薪酬方案进行了改进。     

我国城市形象管理研究述评

城市形象管理正日益成为城市管理发展的趋势.我国学者对城市形象的内涵及构成、塑造城市形象的必要性、城市形象定位、城市形象设计、城市形象更新、城市形象传播与营销、城市形象评估等方面进行了研究,几乎可以构成一个城市形象管理体系.学者们可以从更好地把握城市形象管理和城市管理的关系、更系统地梳理和更深入地探讨城市形象管理体系、更好地把握城市形象调整的内涵、原则和方法等方面做更进一步的努力.     

上市公司独立董事与公司业绩相关性的实证研究

本文采用面板数据模型,从独立董事的比例、时间精力、职业背景、激励等多个角度考察独立董事与公司业绩的相关性,并测试了独立董事比例的大小对公司业绩的影响。研究发现:独立董事具有代理人的性质,在目前独立董事的胜任力和实现力得不到保证的情况下,独立董事无助于改善公司业绩,当独立董事逐渐成为董事会中的多数甚至绝对多数时,独立董事比例与公司业绩负相关,凸显出独立董事的代理人特征;而且独立董事的薪酬与公司业绩正相关,说明独立董事需要报酬的激励。     

从联邦债务相关因素上分析美国经济复苏前景

随着次贷危机后美国经济走向第六个年头,有关美国经济是否在后次贷危机时代走向复苏成为一个值得讨论的热点话题。文章从联邦债务相关的因素入手,以不同的债务相关因素与处理债务问题的手段为切入点分析近两三年来美国主要经济数据的变化,进而分析经济复苏的态势与情况,着重观察不同处理债务的政策对于美国实体经济复苏所带来的影响,进而得出美国经济复苏的短期预测。     

从分工视角解读城市产业空间结构的演变机理

城市产业空间结构是城市经济结构的表现形式,是城市空间结构最为核心的内容,它的演变历程是城市成长变迁的历程,其演变机理也折射出城市发展的内在动力。以分工为切入点,对产业成长和生产组织结构的演变以及其在空间上的表现———城市经济结构的变迁进行研究。撇开各行业的特殊性,将各个产业的区位选择联系起来,在一个统一的框架内研究城市各产业的区位选择及变迁,揭示城市产业空间结构演变的本质和机理,并分析其所体现出的普遍性规律。认为在分工深化的过程中,随着企业功能的不断分化,不同功能之间的联系成本决定了功能空间的结合或分离,联系成本和区位成本共同构成了企业的空间成本,而企业的区位决策即是要寻求空间成本的最小化。     

Solving DSGE models with perturbation methods and a change of variables

This paper explores the application of the changes of variables technique to solve the stochastic neoclassical growth model. We use the method of Judd [2003. Perturbation methods with nonlinear changes of variables. Mimeo, Hoover Institution] to change variables in the computed policy functions that characterize the behavior of the economy. We report how the optimal change of variables reduces the average absolute Euler equation errors of the solution of the model by a factor of three. We also demonstrate how changes of variables correct for variations in the volatility of the economy even if we work with first-order policy functions and how we can keep a linear representation of the laws of motion of the model if we use a nearly optimal transformation. We discuss how to apply our results to estimate dynamic equilibrium economies.     

Social representations and social marketing: Effectiveness of awareness campaigns on the representation of public policies?

The research fits into the theory of the central core within the social representations theory. The approach argues the existence of two components: the core and the periphery. Each one has its own characteristics and a role to play. Within this framework, transformation of social representations can be the consequence of practices modification. However, in this study, we are interested in the effect of communication. We focus on the social representation of the public policy of the 30 kmh speed limit developed in Europe since the 1990's. And we test the impact of two awareness campaigns: the first one aims at reinforcing one aspect of the central core of the representation, the second one aims at contradicting one aspect of the core. Three groups of participants answer a questionnaire of representation related to the 30 kmh speed limit: two experimental groups (each one receiving a campaign) and one control group. Results confirm the relevance of using communication and social marketing methods in order to transform social representations. According to the type information, results are different. Discussion highlights the interest of using social representations in order to build social marketing campaigns.     

基于RBV和ABV理论的产品市场竞争力研究

RBV和ABV竞争理论不是对立的 ,它们之间有着一定的联系。因为 ,降低产品的生产成本和建立产品的独特性与企业资源有很大的关系。基于这两种理论及其联系 ,研究发现产品市场竞争的本质是成本和独特性竞争。并且以古诺模型为例 ,分别推导出在产品成本领先和产品独特性条件下企业产品市场竞争力指数。     

Systemic analysis of a manufacturing process based on a small scale bakery

The main aim of the article is to present two new innovative concepts of reliability of a functioning manufacturing system in the process of making bread in small-scale bakeries. Reliability is understood as one of the representations of an operator acting on specific streams in time t_o to t. One of these represents the global reliability of a system as a function of parallel action of all the streams of the system in time t_o to t and is denoted as P_g^(t). The second representation of reliability is a scalar value, P_ss It shows a new function of global reliability of a manufacturing process as a product of system stream reliability. In order to plot the flow of the manufacturing process’s global reliability function, we need to perform detailed calculations, computations, and analysis of the differences of individual values in real time, as well as plan an algorithm of the flow of system streams. This needs a lot of effort, translating however, to a detailed picture of the process. In the analysed example, measurements and research revealed an important increase of the value of reliability in a transition from a traditional to a robotised bakery. The article also presents a new concept of the reliability of a technological process, based on the analysis of relations of elements of the following streams: energy, matter, information, time, and finances. It shows the method of specifying streams and the method for defining the reliability of important and supportive relations. Important relations between stream elements are defined as having the reliability value of one in time. Supportive relations bear the reliability within a continuum between zero and one. Important relations are designated based on research, experience, and knowledge. Stream systemic reliability P_ss is a scalar value, i.e. a number from the continuum between zero and one. The P_ss value characterises failure-free operation of the whole system. Its average value in the normative time t_n expresses the efficiency of the manufacturing system. The value P_ss is a quotient of the number of important relation and the sum of important and supportive relations. The formula for P_ss shows the method of optimising the process through the increasing of the number of important relations between the input stream components. The concept has been applied to study the efficiency of operation of a small-scale bakery. Systemic analysis of a bakery allows for important increase in the reliability of baking bread if robotisation has been implemented. The concept of systemic-stream reliability P_ss may be applied to analyse the efficiency of any technological process and optimisation of any manufacturing process.