浅析欧债危机

2008年,由金融危机引发的主权债务危机在欧洲广泛蔓延。究其根本原因,主权债务危机是由于欧元区货币政策和财政政策脱节、欧盟成员国之间发展不平衡、欧盟各成员国自身内部经济结构过于单一、法德等欧洲大国协调困难、欧盟国家固有的高福利政策和都老龄化社会状况等因素造成。欧盟和国际货币基金组织虽然提出了诸如削减财政赤字、发行国债、启动希腊援助计划和建立欧元区退出制度等措施来缓解欧债危机,但是离完全摆脱主权债务危机仍然任重道远。欧债危机对中国也造成一定影响,主要表现在间接导致人民币"被升值"、出口贸易下降、外汇储备大幅缩水等。欧债危机启示我们中国要重视地方债务和金融系统债务问题,要注意保持货币政策独立性,社会福利制度改革要稳健推进,要注意调整经济结构并提高经济内生增长能力。     

欧债危机的进展、判断和对策

欧债危机的最新进展欧债危机目前仍在恶化。表现为:一是意大利和西班牙的外部融资成本大幅上升,两国10年期国债利率都超过6.5%。欧央行干预后有所下降,但仍面临压力。由于国债和银     

欧元区的命运和欧债危机

6月17日,作为世界上最古老文明国家之一的希腊,迎来或许是它本世纪最重要的抉择——希腊再次大选。而这个抉择的结果也关乎整个欧洲经济甚至今后世界政治格局的重新划分,希腊第二轮选举将欧洲推向了未知的领域。此次希腊大选的结果对今后欧元区的局势影响如何,暂时无法预估,不过希腊债务危机已成为欧元区的一个最危险的定时炸弹,随时都有爆炸的可能。     

政绩危机：一个幽灵在徘徊——欧债危机的形成、根源与前景预测

随着希腊、爱尔兰,葡萄牙主权债务危机的升温．债务危机开始从欧元区外国国家向核心国家蔓延．意大利和西班牙谁将是欧债危机下一个倒掉的“多米诺骨牌”成为议论沸点。     

本刊快讯:欧盟一揽子救市 提振全球市场欧美股市大涨

布鲁塞尔时间10月27日凌晨,欧元区首脑在经过近8个小时的马拉松谈判后,终于就希腊债务减记、扩大欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)、银行注资以及加强金融监管等一揽子方案达成一致。希腊总理乔治·潘帕德里欧表示,这意味着希腊的     

温家宝:防止欧债危机进一步蔓延

10月21日下午,国务院总理温家宝应约与欧洲理事会主席范龙佩紧急通电话。温家宝指出,欧债问题既有国际金融危机的大背景,与全球经济整体复苏形势不稳定密切相关,也是欧盟及欧元区内部问题长期积累的结果。解决问题除了     

欧债危机中的金融监管问题及对我国的启示

自2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,无论是美国的次贷危机还是欧洲债务危机,从中都可以看到金融监管缺失的问题。我国的金融产业和金融监管还处于摸索和发展的阶段,正视和深入了解此次欧债务危机中金融监管的问题,有助于我国金融监管制度的进一步完善和发展。欧债危机中暴露出的金融监管问题(一)监管主体不明确,权责不明,多头重复监管很多国家的金融监管体制中都存在一个普遍的问题——多个     

欧债危机的形成、根源与前景预测

随着希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙主权债务危机的升温,债务危机开始从欧元区外围国家向核心国家蔓延,意大利和西班牙谁将是欧债危机下一个倒掉的"多米诺骨牌"成为议论沸点。截至2010年底,意大利公债占国内生产总值比重达119%,远高于《马斯     

走出欧债危机的对策研究——基于欧洲主权债务危机与80年代拉美债务危机的成因比较分析

本文比较分析了典型的发达国家和发展中国家所爆发的债务危机,即当前爆发的欧洲主权债务危机与20世纪80年代拉丁美洲地区债务危机,其所爆发的成因有诸多相似之处,主要从危机爆发前的外部经济环境和危机爆发国家深刻的内在原因两方面进行分析。在此借鉴拉美国家应对危机的经验与措施,为欧债危机找寻出路。     

由欧债危机所引发的对我国产业结构调整思考

蔓延一年的欧洲债务危机越演越烈,从希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙和西班牙蔓延至比利时、意大利,由此产生的多米诺效应令国际资本市场一蹶不振。论其产生的根源之一就在于欧洲的产业结构发展不平衡,大量制造业外迁导致实体经济"空心化",经济发展脆弱,当经济不振时实体经济无力为其"输血",文章首先对欧洲债务危机的产业结构原因进行阐述,在此基础上分析了欧洲产业结构不平衡,对我国产业结构调整的启示,并针对欧洲债务危机提出了我国产业结构调整的建议。     

The UK and the Eurozone: Sovereign Debt Management and Monetary Policy

Events in the wake of the ‘credit crunch’ can be understood only against institutional structures within which interdependent monetary and fiscal policy are administered. In the Eurozone, the attempt to keep a central monetary authority (together with its associated national central banks) independent from 17 diverse fiscal authorities was flawed. When sovereign debt approaches unmanageable levels, the Maastricht Treaty presents austerity as the single option. In the UK, the electorate has an opportunity to choose between monetary financing (inflation) and fiscal consolidation (austerity). Policy choices within the Eurozone and the UK are set against Keynes's focus on unemployment and more recent concerns to retain (or restore) price and/or financial stability.     

Eurozone

Following the 0.2% expansion in Q3, our expectation was that the eurozone economy would start recovering in Q4. However, the latest German data, which shows the economy flirting with recession in H2, has dashed hopes that eurozone GDP growth accelerated substantially in the final quarter of last year.     

Eurozone

As most European countries are implementing partial or full lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the eurozone economy faces a collapse in economic activity in the short term.     

Eurozone

Following a sharp slowdown in H2 2018, latest survey data suggests that economic activity seems to be stabilising. There remains a wide divergence between robust activity in services and a struggling manufacturing sector, which is still reeling from the impact from several transitory shocks as well as a sharp deterioration in the external environment. This is particularly evident in the March PMI numbers, which showed services activity bouncing back to its highest level in four months whereas the manufacturing sector continued to slip, reaching its lowest level in six years. We still think that robust domestic fundamentals should help to support growth in 2019. But risks remain, especially from an increasingly adverse global environment.     

Eurozone

Following a 0.2% q/q rise in GDP in Q2, it looks as though the eurozone economy remained very weak in Q3. High‐frequency indicators remained dismal, with the composite PMI falling to its lowest in six years in September. The EU's Economic Sentiment Indicator also fell in September and was below the Q2 average. And available hard data offers no relief, with both industrial production and retail sales contracting in July.     

Eurozone

All the signs are that Q2 will see Eurozone GDP growth exceed Q1's well above‐trend rise of 0.6%. In addition to the business surveys continuing to rise, quarterly industrial production and retail sales growth also probably accelerated in Q2, closing the previous gap between the surveys and hard data. This points to a robust rise in GDP of 0.7% to 0.8% in Q2     

Eurozone

GDP growth in Q3 was revised up from 0.6% to 0.7%. This followed a consistent trend over the past year, which has seen the initial GDP flash estimate being revised up by 0.1–0.2% a quarter.     

Eurozone

Based on the available monthly data, the eurozone economy continued to expand at a steady, albeit weak, pace at the end of 2019. The composite PMI rose to a four-month high in December, boosted by stronger activity in services. That said, its Q4 average was still below the Q3 level, suggesting that GDP growth will have remained moderate in the final quarter of last year.     

Eurozone

The Eurozone economy probably reached its peak velocity in Q2, when GDP rose 0.6% q/q. The figures available for Q3 provide something of a diverging picture between soft and hard data. The composite PMI – which has been the best predictor for quarterly GDP growth – averaged 56.0 in Q3, only slightly below the 56.6 seen in Q2. And the EC's Economic Sentiment Indicator was actually stronger in Q3 after reaching a new multi‐year high in September. But some of the hard data suggest that growth may be softer than indicated by the strong surveys. In particular, retail sales have been surprisingly weak despite high consumer confidence and strong employment growth, although we suspect weatherrelated factors have been at play.     

Eurozone

The Eurozone economy has shown signs of having gone through a soft patch in Q1. The PMIs fell again in March, though they remain at levels above those seen in 2017 and consistent with strong GDP growth. The decline in manufacturing sentiment has been noticeably sharper, but coming off an even higher base. Meanwhile, the services sector continues to show a strong domestic economy, with employment growth displaying no signs of slowing yet.