Evaluation uncertainty of venture capitalists' investment criteria

This paper analyzes the decision process of venture capitalists. The study focuses on aligning the evaluation uncertainty in the decision criteria of venture capitalists with the progress of the process. The reasoning builds from the concept of search, experience and credence qualities, which was developed in the economics of information and allows the identification of the varying uncertainty of a single decision criterion compared to other criteria, along with uncertainty variations throughout the process. Exploratory empirical evidence suggests that in the early steps of the process in particular, management criteria are uncertain, while at the end of the process other criteria couple with uncertainty.     

The nature of information and overconfidence on venture capitalists' decision making

Venture capitalists (VCs) are considered experts in identifying high potential new ventures—gazelles. Thus, the VC decision process has received tremendous attention within the entrepreneurship literature. Yet, most studies on VC decision-making focus on which decision criteria are central to selecting gazelles. Although informative, the majority of these studies has neglected cognitive differences in how VCs make decisions. This is surprising considering the influence cognitive differences are likely to have on the exploitation of an opportunity as well as its influence on likely success. The current study investigates whether VCs are overconfident, as well as the factors surrounding the decision that lead to overconfidence.Overconfidence describes the tendency to overestimate the likely occurrence of a set of events. Overconfident people make probability judgments that are more extreme than they should, given the evidence and their knowledge. In the case of the new venture investment decision, overconfident VCs may overestimate the likelihood that a funded company will succeed.The results of the current study indicate that VCs are indeed overconfident (96% of the 51 participating VCs exhibited significant overconfidence) and that overconfidence negatively affects VC decision accuracy (the correlation between overconfidence and accuracy was 0.70). The level of overconfidence depended upon the amount of information, the type of information, and whether the VC strongly believes the venture will succeed or fail.As more information becomes available, people tend to believe they will make better decisions; they are making a “more informed decision.” More information ideally should enable the VCs to assess any potential pitfalls. However, additional information makes the decision more complex. Information factors may contradict and relate to other information in unexpected ways. Even if more information is available, people usually don't analyze all of it (even though they believe they do). Thus, more information creates greater confidence, but it also leads to lower decision accuracy.The type of information that is available also impacts overconfidence and decision accuracy. VCs are intuitive decision makers. When people are familiar with a decision and the structure of the information surrounding that decision, they resort to automatic information processing. On the other hand, if information surrounding the decision is structured in an unfamiliar way, people need to decipher what each piece of information means and how that impacts their overall accuracy. In the case of expert VCs, that means they must deviate from their intuitive style. It seems that forcing them outside their “comfort zone” has a negative effect on their confidence and has an even greater effect (negative) on their accuracy.There is evidence of an “availability bias” in VC decision-making; VCs rely on how well the current decision matches past successful or failed investments. VCs are overconfident in their prediction of venture success when they predict a very high level of success. VCs are also overconfident in their prediction of venture failure when they predict a very low likelihood of success. This high level of overconfidence in success predictions (or failure predictions) may encourage the VC to limit information search and fund a lower potential investment (or prematurely reject a stronger potential investment).Although overconfidence in itself does not necessarily lead to a wrong decision, the bias is likely to inhibit learning and improving the decision process. Overconfident VCs may not fully consider all relevant information, nor search for additional information to improve their decision. Moreover, the natural tendency for people to recall past successes rather than failures may mean that VCs will make the same mistakes again. VCs can take simple steps to reduce the effect of overconfidence, including counterfactual thinking (i.e., imaging scenarios where current assumptions might not hold), formally recording how past decisions were made at the time of the decision (versus trying to recall how that decision was made from memory), and using actuarial decision aids that decompose decisions into core components. Reducing overconfidence may lead to stronger decisions. It is hoped that this study illustrates the power of cognitive theories for understanding VC decision-making.     

Venture capitalists' expertise: A call for research into decision aids and cognitive feedback

This article proposes that research into decision aids can improve venture capitalists' (VCs) decision process and decision accuracy and speed up the acquisition of expertise. After reviewing research into the accuracy of decision aids such as bootstrapping models and the use of these models in cognitive learning, we propose that theory on the use and performance of decision aids can have important implications on how VCs gain expertise in predicting new venture performance. This discussion leads to a proposed research agenda.     

Effects of relational capital and commitment on venture capitalists' perception of portfolio company performance

In this study, we examine how relational capital and commitment affect a venture capital firm's (i.e., VCFs) perception of the performance of its portfolio companies (i.e., PFCs). That is, we examine how perceived performance is affected by the social nature of the relationship between the VCF and PFC. The study's hypotheses are tested by applying quantitative analyses to survey data collected from 298 U.S.-based venture capital firms. The data from the survey are complemented with additional information drawn from secondary data sources and interviews with several venture capitalists. We found that the amount of relational capital embedded in the VCF–PFC dyad and the extent to which the VCF is committed to the PFC are strongly related to perceived performance. We speculate that relational capital and commitment enhance learning, an effect that increases VCFs' perceptions of performance. Further, these perceptions of performance will also be amplified by the positive affect generated by relational capital and commitment. We discuss the limitations and contributions of our findings and provide directions for future research.     

What you are is what you like—similarity biases in venture capitalists' evaluations of start-up teams

This paper extends recent research studying biases in venture capitalist's decision making. We contribute to this literature by analyzing biases arising from similarities between a venture capitalist and members of a venture team. We summarize the psychological foundations of such similarity effects and derive a set of hypotheses regarding the impact of similarity on the assessment of team quality. Using data from a conjoint experiment with 51 respondents, we find that venture capitalists tend to favor teams that are similar to themselves in type of training and professional experience. Our results have important implications for academics and practitioners alike.     

New insights into venture capitalists' activity: IPO and time-to-exit forecast as antecedents of their post-investment involvement

We examine how VCFs' forecast of an IPO exit affects their breadth of advising and the likelihood of founder–CEO replacement shortly after they invest in a new venture. Moreover, we examine how the expected time-to-exit moderates these relationships. Our findings show that the likelihood of founder–CEO replacement upon receiving venture capital funding is significantly greater if a VCF perceives this company as a potential IPO as opposed to a trade sale, and this likelihood increases if the forecasted time-to-exit is short. We also illustrate how the breadth of advice varies as a function of the forecasted IPO and time-to-exit.     

Reconsidering the venture capitalists' “value added” proposition: An interorganizational learning perspective

This study examines the interorganizational relationships among venture capitalists (VCs) and new venture teams (NVTs) for their contribution to long-term improvement in the performance of a venture. Research in (1) learning assistance, (2) NVT dismissal and (3) procedural justice provide important insights into the unique interorganizational relationship that exists among VCs and the NVTs they fund. We found the following: (1) no statistically significant support for strategic information, (2) a negative association for dismissals and (3) positive support for procedurally just interventions. These longitudinal findings suggest important future research on interorganizational relationships.     

Launching a new venture

With the current economic storm raging, can a better understanding of business models make for smoother sailing for today's entrepreneur? What strategies can entrepreneurs adopt to help them weather this storm? John Mullins has researched entrepreneurial ventures and offers some valuable insights.     

Financing new venture exporters

This paper investigates the demand for, and access to, financing for young small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The work compares, theoretically and empirically, two sets of new firms—those that export and those that do not export—as to the frequency with which they seek and obtain external financing. The work hypothesizes that new growth firms and new exporter firms are especially likely to seek external financing yet less likely to obtain financing. Empirical findings confirm these expectations, demonstrating that young growth firms were more likely than non-growth firms to seek all forms of capital and exporters were particularly likely to apply for equity and trade credit. Commercial lenders were less likely to approve loan applications from early stage growth firms, and especially so for applications from young, growth-oriented SME exporters. The implications of these results for research and public policy are discussed.     

Missing the boat or sinking the boat: a study of new venture decision making

Taking two conceptualizations of risk, Dickson and Giglierano's [J. Mark. 50 (1986) 58] nautical analogy of entrepreneurial risk (sinking vs. missing the boat) to represent the likelihood of loss element of new venture risk, and March and Shapira's [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 1404] risk as hazard (boat size) to represent the magnitude of loss element of new venture risk, we investigated how two contextual factors, the suitability of entrepreneurs' skills and their sources of funds, and two individual differences factors, the entrepreneurs' risk propensities and their perceptions of risk, influence their new venture decision making. Metaphorically speaking, we found that most entrepreneurs would rather risk missing than sinking the boat, and that they preferred to pilot bigger craft than smaller ones. Perhaps surprisingly, our sample of highly successful entrepreneurs made relatively risk-averse choices, with 83% choosing either of the two ventures for which the chances for loss were lowest. We also found that the source of new venture funding—the entrepreneur's own money versus that of investors—influenced our subjects' choices between ventures whose chances for loss or gain differed. A similar effect was found for the entrepreneur's risk propensity. On the other hand, we found that the risk the entrepreneurs perceived in the choice set also influenced choices, but only where the magnitude of the new venture's potential gain or loss varied. When viewed in total, our study and results suggest a risk- and reward-based typology of new venture opportunities, one that may provide a conceptual foundation for future explorations of a variety of questions relevant for entrepreneurs and theorists alike.     

Navigating liminality in new venture internationalization

Prior research describes international expansion as a series of discrete steps and notes that taking them threatens new ventures' survival, especially due to unexpected setbacks. Seen through the lens of social science, the source of such threat becomes clearer. In this paper, we argue that internationalization in new ventures involves what social anthropologists call a liminal transition – a betwixt-and-between period lying between the intent to internationalize and the realization of a stable internationalized state. The ambiguous and transitory nature of this liminal transition has the potential to increase the odds of overreach (e.g. a high-cost market entry without sufficient resources). Avoiding the negative influence of liminality – and instead harnessing its positive effect – relies on three sources of support that we refer to as opportunity scaffolding: self-reflective learning, peer learning and consultative learning. We argue that entrepreneurs with personality profiles high in levels of core self-evaluation (CSE) are more likely to utilize the scaffolding like that available in business incubators effectively. This leads to the development of a more reflective mindset, making capability learning more likely, preventing decisions that lead to overreach and reducing the threat to INV survival. However we also strike a note of caution in that at excessive (hyper) levels of CSE, the internationalizing new venture could become the victim of hubris. Emboldened with unrealistically high self-confidence, hubristic entrepreneurs are more likely to rebuff use of scaffolding, leading to a more reactive mindset, increasing the probability of liminal overreach and threatening INV survival.

Legal issues in new venture development

During 1986, approximately 270 early-stage entrepreneurs sought informotion on almost 1,000 legal issues from the Small Business Student (Legal) Clinic, a program run by the New Venture Development Group at The University of Calgary.Using a combination of legal file information and survey data from 100 of these clients, the authors looked at three central questions: 1. Whether entrepreneurial clients were able to identify legal issues affecting their business, and if so, to what extent? 2. Whether stage of venture development was related to the legal problems identified, and 3. Whether failure to identify legal issues affected subsequent business development.Data from the client surveys was used to determine whether clients were made aware of new legal issues and to assess client follow-through behavior; in particular, whether the clients altered or abandoned their business strategy as a result of receiving new information to determine whether these results varied according to stage of venture development. Client files were placed in four broad categories: concept only, prototype development and business planning, pre-selling and financing, and early operation.The data revealed that new venture clients underestimate the amount of legal support they will require at the early stages of venture development. Ninety-one percent (91%) of clients asked clinic personnel to provide information on one or more additional legal issues of importance to their venture. Client files also indicated that while most clients were able to identify and respond to a perceived need to protect personal property, few were able to identify the myriad of other regulatory controls and legislation which would directly impact on their business venture.Failure to understand relevant legal issues resulted in 44% of all clients altering or abandoning their original business strategy when new legal information was received—many clients in the early operational stages. An assessment of the costs associated with these changes was not made. However, the authors discuss the likely costs incurred by entrepreneurs in a number of common situations.The data also revealed the dominance of certain legal issues at various stages of venture development and suggested some logic for an ordering in the legal priorities of newly developed business.The authors conclude: • University based legal assistance clinics can help entrepreneurs identify legal issues that might otherwise go undetected. • The most common legal issues identified by entrepreneurs were related to the protection of personal assets and business ideas. • Different legal problems tend to dominate at different stages of venture development. • Many clients alter or abandon their original business strategy after receiving new information.     

Criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate new venture proposals

A questionnaire was administered to one hundred venture capitalists to determine the most important criteria that they use to decide on funding new ventures. Perhaps the most important finding from the study is direct confirmation of the frequently iterated position taken by the venture capital community that above all it is the quality of the entrepreneur that ultimately determines the funding decision. Five of the top ten most important criteria had to do with the entrepreneur's experience or personality. There is no question that irrespective of the horse (product), horse race (market), or odds (financial criteria), it is the jockey (entrepreneur) who fundamentally determines whether the venture capitalist will place a bet at all.The question is if this is the case, then why is so much emphasis placed on the business plan? In a business plan there is generally little to indicate the characteristics of the entrepreneur—it is generally devoted to a detailed discussion of the product/service, the market, and the competition. To us, the implications are obvious—such content is necessary, but not sufficient. The business plan should also show as clearly as possible that the “jockey is fit to ride” —namely, indicate by whatever feasible and credible means possible that the entrepreneur has staying power, has a track record, can react to risk well, and has familiarity with the target market. Failing this, he or she needs to be able to pull together a team that has such characteristics and show that he or she is capable of leading that team.Factor analysis of the results indicate that venture capitalists appear to assess ventures systematically in terms of six categories of risk to be managed. These are: risk of losing the entire investment: risk of being unable to bail out if necessary; risk of failure to implement the venture idea; competitive risk; risk of management failure; and risk of leadership failure.Finally, three clusters of venture capitalists were identified: those who carefully assess the competitive and implementation risks: those who seek easy bail out; and those who deliberately keep as many options open as possible.     

To start or not to start: Outcome and ability expectations in the decision to start a new venture

This study seeks to better understand why some individuals decide to start new businesses and others do not, particularly in light of high base rates of failure. In addressing the question of “Why do some individuals choose to start new ventures?” a common perspective is that potential entrepreneurs with high levels of confidence in potential outcomes are likely to start new ventures. Alternatively, it also may be that firm creation decisions are based largely on individual expectations of one's ability. Hypotheses examining these perspectives are tested using a sample of 316 nascent entrepreneurs with the start-up decision tracked longitudinally. The results indicate that confidence in one's ability to perform tasks relevant to entrepreneurship is a robust predictor of start-up while outcome expectancies appear to play a marginal role. Theoretical and practical implications stemming from these results are discussed.     

Technology commercialization, incubator and venture capital, and new venture performance

This study examines the effects of technology commercialization, incubator and venture capital supports on new venture performance from the resource-based view. This study uses regression analysis to test the hypotheses in a sample of 122 new ventures. The findings highlight the role of technology commercialization as a mediator between organizational resources, innovative capabilities, and new venture performance. Also, the empirical evidence indicates that incubator and venture capital supports moderate the effects of technology commercialization on the performance of new ventures. Finally, this study discusses managerial implications and highlights future research directions.     

Understanding the dynamics of new venture top management teams: cohesion,conflict, and new venture performance

Research conducted under the upper echelon perspective has produced consistent evidence of a relationship between top management team (TMT) interaction and firm performance. We draw upon and extend this research in an effort to explain new venture performance as a function of cohesion and conflict within the top management team. Based upon data collected from a sample of 70 new ventures, we find that TMT cohesion is negatively related to affective conflict and positively related to cognitive conflict. As expected then, we also find that TMT cohesion is positively related to new venture growth.     

Family involvement and new venture debt financing

New ventures often require debt financing but face difficulties convincing lenders of their creditworthiness because of agency problems. Researchers have shown that social capital can help small firms reduce lenders' agency concerns but new ventures do not yet have their own social capital. We propose that family involvement increases a venture's ability to borrow family social capital for the purpose of obtaining debt financing. Empirical tests with 1267 new ventures suggest that family involvement directly and indirectly improves a new venture's access to debt financing.     

Microfoundations of dynamic new venture partnering capabilities

Managing relationships with new venture suppliers require the adaptation of supplier management practices and routines. This research builds upon the dynamic capabilities perspective to explicate the ability to partner effectively with new venture suppliers as a dynamic capability. We argue that new venture partnering capability (NVPC) encompasses sensing, seizing, and transforming capabilities. Firms with sensing capabilities can interpret new ventures' value propositions and then match them to the needs of their business units. Seizing capabilities allow firms to coordinate and develop the relationship with a new venture supplier to capture value. Transforming capabilities enable firms to adapt resources and reconfigure their sensing and seizing capabilities. Our findings suggest that firms accelerate the transformation and strengthen dynamic NVPCs by applying entrepreneurial behavior through high-quality and regular interactions with new venture suppliers and embedding a dedicated new venture function. We also find that dynamic NVPCs can reside at different levels and that entrepreneurial managers can stimulate the development of organizational NVPCs. In general, we provide further empirical evidence on how buying firms can more effectively leverage the potential of new venture suppliers.     

Measuring emergence in the dynamics of new venture creation

Modeling the dynamics of nascent entrepreneurship provides insight into how organizations are created. In order to study this complex phenomenon we develop a longitudinal case study and analyze it with respect to three modes of organizing: vision, strategic organizing, and tactical organizing. Multiple sources of data are used to identify changes within and across these three modes. Using longitudinal content analysis and other complexity science methods, we found a nearly simultaneous shift in all three modes, indicating a punctuation event. We define this punctuation as an “emergence event,” and provide a process model of organizational emergence showing that a shift in tactical organizing generated a shift in strategic organizing, which resulted in a shift in the vision (identity) of the firm. We conclude with some theoretical implications of our analysis.