BOOTSTRAPPING A STABLE AD MODEL: WEAK VS STRONG EXOGENEITY*

Through Monte Carlo experiments the effects of a feedback mechanism on the accuracy in finite samples of ordinary and bootstrap inference procedures are examined in stable first- and second-order autoregressive distributed-lag models with non-stationary weakly exogenous regressors. The Monte Carlo is designed to mimic situations that are relevant when a weakly exogenous policy variable affects (and is affected by) the outcome of agents’ behaviour. In the parameterizations we consider, it is found that small-sample problems undermine ordinary first-order asymptotic inference procedures irrespective of the presence and importance of a feedback mechanism. We examine several residual-based bootstrap procedures, each of them designed to reduce one or several specific types of bootstrap approximation error. Surprisingly, the bootstrap procedure which only incorporates the conditional model overcomes the small sample problems reasonably well. Often (but not always) better results are obtained if the bootstrap also resamples the marginal model for the policymakers’ behaviour.     

国外环境审计研究述评

1990年以来,随着环境保护观念的不断深入,环境审计在西方国家得到了较快发展,与此同时,相关的研究也大量涌现.学者们从不同的角度对环境审计的基本理论与主体,公司环境审计政策选择与成本效益,规则与立法,程序与方法等问题进行了深入的研究.这些研究对于我国环境审计理论研究和相关实务均具有一定的借鉴意义.     

Democracy and dividend policy around the world

This paper investigates how democracy influences corporate dividend policy. With a sample of 228,628 observations from 37 countries, we find that democracy is negatively associated with both the likelihood to pay dividends and the payout ratio. Moreover, we document that this effect is stronger when shareholders (creditors) are weakly (strongly) protected. These findings imply that the effect of democracy on corporate dividend policy is transmitted mainly through democratic procedures. Besides, we find that democracy also negatively affects dividend initiations.     

A common base for quality control criteria in quantitative and qualitative research

In the social sciences, several scientific paradigms are mutually isolated owing to their use of specific sets of methodological criteria and quality control procedures. In this article, the central hypothesis, to be tested by conceptual analysis and logical reasoning, is that recommended procedures for quality control in quantitative as well as qualitative research can be derived from a common base of regulative ideas. By ‘qualitative’, we mean the complex of ethnographic, anthropological, symbolic interactionist, ethnoscience and related approaches. A second goal is to demonstrate the use of regulative ideas as a parsimonious and fruitful base for a comparative analysis of methodological canons. Although our focus is on the comparison of quantitative and qualitative (or: naturalistic) research, we also pay attention to policy research as opposed to fundamental research.     

浅谈美国汽车排放缺陷召回制度

文章介绍了美国汽车排放缺陷召回制度的概况和运行情况,重点分析了缺陷召回的程序。研究美国汽车排放缺陷召回制度,对我国相关制度的建立有一定的借鉴意义。     

Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients

A linear regression model is proposed in which the coefficient vector is a weakly stationary multivariate stochastic process. The model provides a convinient representation of a general class of nonstationary processes. Prediction and estimation methods are proposed that are linear and relatively easy to compute. The proposed procedures are illustrated by estimation of time-varying GNP multipliers of several macro policy instruments over the period 1891-1970. The results are compatible with theoretical priors and suggest that predictability of policy outcomes depends on the mixture of policy instruments.     

An econometric study on the dynamics of urban spatial structure

Using data on 43 randomly selected census tracts for each of 39 U.S. cities in 1970, we present a comprehensive econometric analysis of a varying parameter density gradient (VCM) model in which the functional form, together with the variance components of an implied error structure, is freely estimated. We generalize a recent model of Johnson and Kau in which certain city- and tract-specific socioeconomic variables are introduced to depict the dynamic process of urban growth. Since these variables can be either controlled by policy actions or projected on the basis of time, we reexamine the usefulness of VCM framework for both forecasting and policy simulation purposes.     

Consistency vs Flexibility: The Impact of Employee Voice in Rule-Based and Discretionary Decision Procedures

Consistency and flexibility are desirable, but incompatible, features of decision-making procedures. A comparison of a rule-based decision procedure (maximizing consistency) with a discretionary decision procedure (maximizing flexibility) was conducted. Employee voice was predicted to interact with decision procedure in impacting fairness perceptions. Student participants (N = 128) in a 2 × 2 laboratory simulation viewed videotaped depictions of a supervisor discussing a positive drug test result with an employee. The employee was given, or not given, an opportunity to explain; the supervisor was permitted discretion in determining the consequence or was completely bound by company policy. The proposed advantages of each decision procedure were obtained under contrasting levels of employee voice. Voice was desirable when the supervisor had discretionary authority; voice was unnecessary or even detrimental when a rule-based procedure was used. No overall preference between these two decision procedures was evident.     

Simulation Evidence on Theory‐based and Statistical Identification under Volatility Breaks

Beside a priori theoretical assumptions on instantaneous or long‐run effects of structural shocks, sign restrictions have become a prominent means for structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis. Moreover, changes in second order moments of systems of time series can be fruitfully exploited for identification purposes in SVARs. By means of Monte Carlo studies, we examine to what degree theory‐based and statistical identification approaches offer an accurate quantification of the true structural relations in a standard model for monetary policy analysis. Subsequently, we discuss how identifying information from theory‐based and statistical approaches can be combined on the basis of a low‐dimensional empirical model of US monetary policy.     

主房公积金沉淀资金存款收益优化研究

在我国住房公积金制度的发展与普及过程中,沉淀资金投资收益低下的问题目益明显。基于某市近年来住房公积金沉淀资金投资银行存款的数据,利用基于持续期的多目标规划模型,分析了沉淀资金存款收益与风险的变化关系,提出了提高沉淀资金收益的存款优化方案。结果表明,优化方案可在当前风险条件下使收益率提高0．213个百分点,或在风险调整的条件下使收益率提高0．518个百分占、。相关结论可为改进住房公积金沉淀资金银行存款管理策略提供支撬提高公积金沉淀资金的存款收益。     

Economies of scale for a state system of public school districts

A review of the different variables, school district samples, regression techniques and a priori assumptions utilized in recent studies clearly indicates that no standard model or set of procedures have been developed for the problems of economies of scale within the educational sector. Based on these studies and a brief discussion of the limitations of economies of scale models as a tool in policy planning, we present a generalizable model that can easily be applied to statistics now available in state departments of education to derive valuable new information about the existing cost-size relationships and opportunity costs that exist in a state system of public school districts. A recent application of the model in Oregon that illustrates its generalizability is described. An example of how economies of scale information might be used in policy planning and proposed district consolidations is also outlined.     

Selecting Social Goals: Alternative Concepts of Rationality: Both the Orthodox and the Heterodox Must Be Able to Explain the Origin and Significance of Values

A bstract . The differences between the neoclassical concept of substantive rationality and the recently proposed alternative, procedural rationality, is clarified. It is demonstrated that abandoning neoclassical rationality does not, in itself, provide a rational basis for evaluating alternative institutional or policy goals. Hayek contradiction-resolution model is examined as one way to evaluate such goals. The possibility that ends must be based on explicitly ethical criteria , selected according to the concept of "ontological rationality," is considered. It is argued that economic analysis employing either substantive or procedural rationality of evaluate alternative goals is inadequate since both take institutional and policy ends as givens. Both the orthodoxy and its critics must be able to explain the origins of values , and to provide criteria for evaluating alternative values before any policy proposals can be defended as rational or progressive. Tillich, Galbraith, Hodgson and Dewey are considered.     

Value Co-Creation through Patient Engagement in Health Care: A micro-level approach and research agenda

Abstract

Patient engagement has gained increasing prominence within academic literatures and policy discourse. With limited developments in practice, most extant academic contributions are conceptual, with initiatives in the National Health Service (NHS) concentrating at macro- rather than at micro-level. This may be one reason why the issue of ‘value co-creation’ has received limited attention within academic discussions of patient engagement or policy pronouncements. Drawing on emerging ideas in the services marketing and public management literatures, this article offers the first elucidation of the importance of studying ‘value co-creation’ as a basis for further empirical analysis of patient engagement in micro-level encounters.     

Reconstructing Urban Politics with a Bourdieusian Framework: The Case of Local Low‐Income Housing Policy

This research aimed to reconstruct a local urban politics and develop a meso–micro‐level model of urban politics through a case study, drawing on a Bourdieusian relational framework. To this end, it investigated the case of local low‐income housing policy — inclusionary zoning — in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It historicized the path of the local low‐income policy issue through document analysis and qualitative media content analysis. Through multiple analyses, the study revealed that urban politics consists of complex interlinkages among stakeholders with shared values or interests from different social domains, created in order to dominate the policy issue. The study further investigated, on the basis of Bourdieu's concepts of capital and habitus, what elicited different political strategies from key community leaders.     

Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area*

In this paper, we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the Euro area by comparing a set of procedures that rely on different information sets and econometric techniques. In particular, we consider autoregressive moving average models, Vector autoregressions, small‐scale semistructural models at the national and Euro area level, institutional forecasts (Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development), and pooling. Our small‐scale models are characterized by the joint modelling of fiscal and monetary policy using simple rules, combined with equations for the evolution of all the relevant fundamentals for the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact. We rank models on the basis of their forecasting performance using the mean square and mean absolute error criteria at different horizons. Overall, simple time‐series methods and pooling work well and are able to deliver unbiased forecasts, or slightly upward‐biased forecast for the debt–GDP dynamics. This result is mostly due to the short sample available, the robustness of simple methods to structural breaks, and to the difficulty of modelling the joint behaviour of several variables in a period of substantial institutional and economic changes. A bootstrap experiment highlights that, even when the data are generated using the estimated small‐scale multi‐country model, simple time‐series models can produce more accurate forecasts, because of their parsimonious specification.     

国际金融危机与中国财政政策设计：功能、目标、力度

本文结合国际金融危机,从理论和实践两方面探讨了中国财政政策设计和实施中存在的一些重要问题。一是从财政政策的维持和纠偏两方面,揭示了财政政策的基本功能,提出财政政策应该分为稳定和再稳定两类政策;二是从财政政策的经济和社会目标两方面,分析了财政政策目标错位问题,提出了财政政策目标应从实现经济增长调整为促进充分就业;三是从财政政策力度计量方面,考察了政府预算账户存在的问题,提出了单独设立稳定账户的设想。     

Optimal expenditures on police protection

The object of this paper is to propose an approach for operationalizing Rubin's (Minimizing Harm: a New Crime Policy for modern America, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1999) idea that minimizing harm is a solution to the crime policy conundrum. Harm is defined to be the total cost of damages due to crime plus the cost of police protection. Its minimization determines optimal expenditures for protection. This is an appropriate basis for specifying the optimal size of a police force, and provides a term of reference for actual policy decisions. Data for the states of the US are used to make the presentation more concrete and to clarify some of the problems that must be solved in actual applications of the method suggested. This does not eliminate the applicability of the approach to any other country or to the geo-political subdivisions within a country. The results obtained are of interest to policy makers dealing specifically with expenditures for police at local, regional or national levels or, more generally, with similar uses of public or private financial resources.     

技术进步的就业效应与技术进步路线的选择——基于1990～2005年中国省际面板数据的分析

本文结合1990~2005年中国省际面板数据,运用DEA方法测算了各省历年的全要素生产率变化,用以度量广义技术进步,并对技术进步的就业效应以及不同技术进步路线与就业增长的关系进行实证分析。研究表明虽然技术进步有助于三次产业间就业结构的调整与优化,但实证结果显示现阶段技术进步对中国就业增长产生了不利影响;虽然这并不意味着政府促进技术进步的举措就不利于实现就业的增长,但通过促进教育和培训事业的发展、鼓励科技创新等手段,政府促进技术进步的政策取向可以在不同程度上促进就业的增长,可以抑制技术进步对就业增长的挤出作用。     

财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

A new approach for detecting shifts in forecast accuracy

Forecasts play a critical role at inflation-targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. However, commonly-used statistical procedures implicitly place a lot of weight on type I errors (or false positives), which results in a relatively low power of the tests to identify forecast breakdowns in small samples. We develop a procedure which aims to capture the policy cost of missing a break. We use data-based rules to find the test size that optimally trades off the costs associated with false positives with those that can result from a break going undetected for too long. In so doing, we also explicitly study forecast errors as a multivariate system. The covariance between forecast errors for different series, although often overlooked in the forecasting literature, not only enables us to consider testing in a multivariate setting, but also increases the test power. As a result, we can tailor our choice of the critical values for each series not only to the in-sample properties of each series, but also to the way in which the series of forecast errors covary.