Hong Kong's financial industries in transition: An external perspective

As a consultant to hundreds of business in Hong Kong, Gaeta analyzes the development of Hong Kong with a consultant's eye. He traces the path Hong Kong has followed to become a global banking and financial-services center in the 1990s; discusses the current obstacles it has to face as this center rapidly matures—for example, in its move from laissez-faire to international regulatory standards- and discusses the future competitive and managerial challenges the country will face with China at the helm, such as skills and human resource development, goal setting and performance management.     

Hong Kong after 1997: The question of sovereignty

Ever since British-Chinese negotiations over the return of Hong Kong began in 1982, there has been a dialogue of the deaf about Hong Kong's future, Overholt provides a thorough overview of the historical, political economic, social and legal issues regarding Hong Kong's transition and of China's self-interest in Hong Kong's major functions as an airlock, entrepot, financial center, regional headquarters and manufacturer. Through his careful discussion of the foreseeable problems, Overholt reaches the conclusion that hong Kong is “useful pretty much the way it is” to China and doesn't see China disturbing the balance.     

Enter the dragon: Hong Kong's growing role in world finance

Hong Kong currently plays a crucial role in world finance, yet will it maintain its economic power under Chinese rule? Important in Hong Kong's current and future role are its stock market, the maintenance of a stable exchange rate, the maintenance of a stable exchange rate, the development of its capital and debt markets, the Basic Law that guarantees that the financial sector will remain intact after 1997 and a smooth financial synthesis between Hong Kong and China. Li describes the integral role of the Hong Kong government in these tasks and discusses his optimism for the future.     

On Income Convergence among China,Hong Kong and Macau

Hong Kong and Macau were reunited with China in the late 1990s as two special administrative regions (SARs). Over the last half century, they were China's good examples of economic development, windows of openness and investors. Owing to historical reasons, China lagged far behind Hong Kong and Macau in terms of per capita incomes. However, rapid economic growth in China over the last three decades must have brought about a significant convergence of the three economies. China's economic success has benefited from the integration of its two SARs and the coastal provinces, especially Guangdong, in terms of technological spillover, massive investment and trade. The economic trickledown, direct investment and trade must have been important drivers of economic integration and income convergence. This paper aims to analyse the trend and studies the determinants of income convergence between China and its two SARs. Both parametric and non‐parametric techniques are employed to quantify the pace of convergence on per capita incomes in Hong Kong, Macau and the Chinese provinces over a period of more than 40 years. We find no evidence of convergence in the pre‐reform period, but strong evidence of both absolute and conditional β‐convergence in the post‐reform period. Over the reform period, the pace of convergence is less than 1 per cent per annum without controlling for trade and more than 2 per cent conditional on trade.     

Business and the rule of law in Hong Kong

Hong Kong's fair efficient legal system is the bedrock of its economic success. The practice of Western law underpins Hong Kong's entire free, market by providing a level playing field, due process, protection of property right and legal contracts. Mr. Lee, the Democratric Party of Hong Kong, warns of the potential harmful impact of Chinese sovereignty in Hong Kong after 1997, particularly through corruption and nepotism.     

Hong Kong's Hotel industry—the post-hand-over blues

Hong Kong's tourism industry collapsed around July 1997, shortly after the hand over to Chinese rule. When the Asian financial crisis hit, Hong Kong's investments in neighboring countries suffered. Thereafter the Heng Seng Index dropped 55 percent. Throughout the last quarter of 1997 Hong Kong's economic inhibitors—unemployment, business failures, and negative GDP—all pointed to a recession. Among Hong Kong's hotels, more than 1,750 jobs were lost from December 1997 to March 1998, and average room rates dropped below 1991 levels. Hong Kong's tourism crisis can be traced to: an imbalance between room supply and demand (caused by the inflated demand for office space), unfair hotel pricing to take advantage of Japanese tourists, ineffective national promotional campaigns, airline woes, and food-borne illnesses that scared away visitors. Economic recovery is likely to take several years, and is dependent on the recovery of the rest of the region's countries. In June 1998 Hong Kong produced an economic-stimulus package to stem the tide of decreasing land values and stimulate the money supply. Hoteliers can help by working together to ensure pricing stability. Coordination is also needed between the Hong Kong Tourist Association and the rest of the industry to set goals and objectives. Hospitality education and training need to focus on the current needs of the industry and on how to compete in the new market.     

金融科技背景下香港产业发展路径研究

在世界金融科技发展的背景下,香港作为世界三大金融中心之一,要想实现行业升级,需要解决自身经济结构的不合理性。从香港目前的发展状况来看,将金融科技高度融入到现有的支柱产业是关键所在。本文从香港前几次的行业转型升级历程入手,指出了之前香港产业结构升级的特点,分析了在新兴金融科技背景下,香港再次进行经济转型的必要性及趋势,由此探究出香港由金融中心演变为金融科技中心需要进行区域间的经济协作、强化政府宏观调控、加强技术创新并引入新兴技术以及推动科技产业集群化的路径选择。     

Dirt of whitewashing: re-conceptualising debtors’ obligations in Chinese business by transplanting bankruptcy law to early British Hong Kong (1860s–1880s)

This article, drawing on a wide range of archived materials, and using one of the earliest sets of English business law imported to Hong Kong – the Bankruptcy Ordinance of 1864 – as a case study, argues that the transplantation of the English bankruptcy regime into early colonial Hong Kong was contrary to the business interests of both the European and Chinese communities and wrongfully displaced the traditional Chinese business norms and practices that had contributed to the health of the colonial economy prior to the regime's introduction. This article constitutes one of the first empirical studies to place English business law and its widely acknowledged contribution to the economy of early colonial Hong Kong under scrutiny. From the perspective of the relationship between English law and former British colonies’ development of business modernity, the findings presented herein contradict the readily accepted notion that English business law provided a solid legal infrastructure upon which colonial Hong Kong's prosperity and economic growth were built and call for more nuanced studies of the positive role of Chinese legal traditions in Hong Kong's development of business modernity in its early colonial period.     

The impact of China's WTO accession on Hong Kong textiles,clothing and its supporting industries

China's accession to the WTO and the ‘Agreement on Textiles and Clothing’ (ATC) which gradually ban the use of quota, will have profound impacts on the textile industry in China. This article attempts to examine such impacts on all textile firms of Hong Kong origin. It briefly examines the impact of WTO on the textile industries in general, the participation of Hong Kong based firms in China's textiles industry, and the competitors from foreign countries. It examines in detail the practice of obtaining Hong Kong quota for textile products that are made in the Mainland by Hong Kong firms. The article argues that there are positive and negative effects of China–s WTO accession for all textile firms of Hong Kong origin. It concludes that the shifting of the targeted market to high-end, high-value-added is the only way of survival for the textile firms of Hong Kong.     

The demand for business and management education in Hong Kong beyond 1997

In this contribution, the future market of business and management education in Hong Kong is investigated, bearing in mind that Hong Kong reverted to Chinese sovereignty. Hong Kong is expected to continue its prosperity, but the emigration of large numbers of Hong Kong professionals wanting to secure a safety net by acquiring a foreign passport has further created demands for better and more business and management education in an attempt to develop more professional managers. The study starts by discussing the current state of the Hong Kong economy and the phenomenon of the ‘brain drain’. In addition, it analyses a survey of the current state of business and management education in Hong Kong so that a market need can be identified to match economic growth. Finally, the study suggests a future research direction for Hong Kong's business and management education.     

Environmental complexity,importance, variability and scanning behavior of Hong Kong executives

With the recent handover of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong executives face the challenge of formulating strategies in a very complex and uncertain environment. Using a sample of 55 Hong Kong Chinese executives, this study explored how executives' perceptions of their firm's external environment can affect their scanning behavior as measured by frequency and level of interest. Results indicated that executives intensified their scanning when perceived strategic importance of an environmental sector increased. Contrary to expectations, however, increased perceived environmental complexity did not decrease but increased executives scanning efforts of environmental sectors. No significant relationship was found between perceived strategic variability and scanning behavior.     

Hong Kong-Ideal Access For Mainland Enterprises

With the deepen economic integration between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR,more and more mainland enterprises choose Hong Kong as their platform to enter the international market. At the end of 2008,more than 3,800 mainland enterprises have invested in Hong Kong with the total amount of US$20.7 billion;     

Executive opinions on Hong Kong: Point and counterpoint: The future looks bright for China and Hong Kong

The biggest debate about the future of Hong Kong is poised on whether China wil honor the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration or whether it will introduce corruption and over-regulation into Hong Kong's well-functioning Western economy. Fong,an appointee of the Hong Kong government, and Wilson, a longtime resident and employee of Western companies with offices in Hong Kong, briefly tackle both sides of the issue.     

入世后上海能否取代香港的国际金融中心地位

香港与上海金融中心的建立和发展不但互有优势与隐忧，而且上海金融中心的建立也不一定是对香港国际金融中心的代替和竞争，未来建立的上海国际金融中心与香港国际金融中心之间顶多是相互分工和彼此合作的关系。     

中国内地和中国香港的贸易自由化效应研究——基于全球贸易分析模型GTAP的分析

基于全球贸易分析模型GTAP模型和CEPA免税清单"原产地"标准,分析了中国内地和中国香港实施"港产品零关税"和"全面贸易自由化"产生的经济、贸易和产业效应,以及海峡两岸ECFA早期收获和全面实施的影响。研究发现:由于中国内地关税大幅度减免,"港产品零关税"使中国香港进出口增加幅度大于中国内地,中国内地服务业和符合原产地标准的中国香港制造业生产出口增加。如果两地进一步实现"全面贸易自由化",则进出口值、经济增长和福利水平将大幅度提高,并促进两地产业结构调整和升级,但中国内地进口增加幅度大于出口导致贸易余额减少。此外,ECFA早期收获使中国台湾贸易余额增加,而ECFA全面实施将使中国香港作为海峡两岸经贸中转港的地位受到影响。     

Hong Kong as a complex adaptive system

In this contribution, the post-war economic development of Hong Kong is considered from a complexity theory perspective. It is argued that over the last 50 years Hong Kong has displayed many of the signature qualities of a complex adaptive system in its transformation from dusty entrepot port to the secondwealthiest Asian economy. Insights from theories of complexity are used to shed light on a range of empirical phenomena. In contrast with the orthodox laissez faire account of Hong Kong's ascendancy, a complexity based explanation can be used to account for the presence of endogenously induced systemic disruptions and does not discount the role of external intervention in those areas of the economy prone to escalating feedback.     

The big emerging markets

During his tenure as Under Secretary of Commerce, the author was one of the architects of the Clinton administration's Big Emerging Markets policy under Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. He is now dean of the Yale School of Management. The Clinton policy emerged out of a growing conviction that some ten markets will account for the overwhelming growth potential in world imports, not to mention commensurate growth in economic and political influence around the world. These markets include, in Asia—the Chinese Economic Area (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan), South Korea, Indonesia and India; in Africa—South Africa; in Central Europe—Poland and Turkey; and in Latin America—Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The administration concluded that, because many of these countries still have important state sectors, and because virtually all are focusing heavily on infrastructure projects that demand the involvement of local governments, U.S. companies need the U.S. government at their side to win a fair hearing. What is more, because of the intensity of foreign competition and the capital demands on these countries, international competitors will be public/private partnerships in which foreign governments provide concessionary financing and aggressive advocacy to support their companies' efforts.This presentation is based on the author's speeches during his tenure as Under Secretary for International Trade of the U.S. Department of Commerce, June 1993 to October 1995.     

The role of entrepÔt trade in the choice of a nominal anchor for Hong Kong

This paper adds a new perspective to the literature of monetary standard by establishing a link between re-exports and the choice of nominal anchor. The model developed is applied to address the controversy over the US dollar versus the renminbi as the nominal anchor for Hong Kong, in the context of its considerable amount of entrepÔt trade with the US and China. It is found that the distinct trade structure of the US-Hong Kong-China triangle significantly reduces Hong Kong's opportunity cost of choosing between the two currencies, its nominal anchor.     

Trends in international business thought and literature: One country,two currencies? Hong Kong's exchange-rate regime after 1997

A key factor in assessing the future of the Hong Kong dollar is whether China would, after 1997, take the drastic step of abolishing the Hong Kong dollar in favor of the Renminbi (RMB) as legal tender. While this possibility should not be discounted, our view is that a merger of the two currencies would only occur in the distant future when the RMB becomes fully convertible. This study argues that the status quo of the HK$-US$ link would be preserved at least until the turn of the century. A combination of factors, including the overriding need to maintain confidence and stability in Hong Kong, which is crucial for a smooth transition of sovereignty; the weak relationship between either imported or domestic-generated inflation and the exchange rate link; and the misconception that Hong Kong's export competitiveness has been undermined by an overvalued Hong Kong dollar would help to support the argument that other alternative regimes for the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate would not be feasible in the short run. These alternative regimes include changing to a floating rate     

Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau?

This contribution attempts to examine the relative importance of the US, Japan and China to Hong Kong and Macau, two effective dollar-based currency boards today, by evaluating the economic potentiality of Japan or China as an alternative monetary anchor country against the US. The assessment is made according to the criteria prescribed by the optimum currency areas (OCA) theory. In addition to that, a subsidiary analysis is done to evaluate in general the suitability of their fixed exchange rate regimes, regardless of the anchor country. Amidst the existing dollar linked arrangement and the rising dominance of China, significant evidence suggests that Japan, despite its lacklustre domestic conditions, might be at least as good a monetary anchor as the US for Hong Kong. In the meantime, China seems to be a more promising monetary anchor alternative for Macau. The features of Hong Kong and Macau also appear to broadly and endogenously support their fixed exchange rates, but not all the features of Macau, a HK-dollar-based currency board, are consistently symmetrical with those of Hong Kong.