TESTING FOR WEAK FORM EFFICIENCY IN NEW AGRICULTURAL FUTURES MARKETS: SOME UK EVIDENCE

This paper examines the hypothesis that new agricultural futures markets are weak form inefficient in their early stages of development and that they exhibit a process of adjustment towards efficiency over time. The concept of pricing efficiency in futures markets is outlined and the hypothesis is tested with respect to the UK soyabean meal, potato and pigmeat futures markets, using serial correlation, runs and spectral analysis. The results indicate that over the time period of the contract samples these markets exhibit some weak form inefficiency; however there is no clear evidence of an adjustment process.     

INSTABILITY IN WORLD GRAIN MARKETS

The paper discusses the nature of international price variability for wheat and coarse grains. In particular, it explores the relationship between variability in national grain markets and international trade. Empirical evidence is presented on the degree to which short-run fluctuations in domestic grain production are transmitted to the world market by major countries or country aggregates, and on their absorption of international market variability. The impact of possible structural or policy changes upon future international price variability is explored. It is argued that multilateral action to promote greater international stability should focus on the modification of domestic storage policies to reduce the transmission of short-run domestic fluctuations in supply or demand to world markets.     

SUPPLY RESPONSES IN CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

This paper is concerned with regression models of time series data, where the data relate to market level aggregates not to individual farms or groups of farms. It presents ideas and preliminary explorations rather than final results. Some aspects of Nerlove's agricultural supply response model are examined, and some conceptual and practical problems discussed. Two general models are then proposed, one for annual crops and one for livestock products. In the time available little empirical work could be undertaken, so that the usefulness, or otherwise, of the thoughts and models presented rests on rather little evidence.     

TIME AND RECURSIVENESS IN LIVESTOCK FEEDING TRIALS*

In livestock feeding experiments the problem of recursiveness arises because the quantity of feed consumed by an animal is a function of its past history of feeding. The problem is most acute where experiments are designed to analyse sub ad lib feeding. The analysis of such experiments encounters two important problems. The first is that the actual quantity of feed consumed is an endogenous variable and is not directly under the control of the experimenter or the livestock producer. The second problem is the mathematical complexity of the relationships involved. A solution is suggested as a quasi reduced-form model.     

ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIPS IN MILK PRODUCTION

The paper reports on the statistical aspects of work done on the National Investigation into the Economics of Milk Production in 1965/66. It argues that conclusions draw from the tabulated results of random samples invariably need checking by more rigorous methods. The method of step-wise regression with the introduction of zero-one variables is the principal technique for examining feed input/output relationships and their reflection in economic terms. Five basic dependent variables are considered: yield per cow, stocking density, output per forage acre, utilised starch equivalent per forage acre and margin over feed cost per forage acre. The discussion of the results argues the overwhelming importance of stocking rate in the profitability of milk production and that on many farms concentrates are being used at uneconomic levels. The latter part of the paper considers variation in labour productivity and argues the existence of economies of scale in the use of labour regardless of the system of herd operation.     

ALTERNATIVE BREEDING INVENTORY SPECIFICATIONS IN A LIVESTOCK MARKET MODEL

The procedures adopted for incorporating breeding decisions in a livestock market model have implications for the simulation of the model. Specifically, there is a need to consider the nature of the biological lags between livestock breeding decisions and outputs, and how these are incorporated in the breeding inventory used in such a model. In this paper, five alternative breeding inventory specifications are used in a structural econometric model of the Australian prime lamb market. The predictions of lamb slaughterings and of price responses of lamb producers are affected by the specification of the lamb breeding inventory used. The extent to which the modelling results approximated reality was substantially improved when disaggregated and seasonally allocated data were used to estimate lamb breeding inventories.     

PRICE-QUALITY RELATIONSHIPS FOR BEEF IN SMITHFIELD MARKET

Smithfield beef prices are regressed on quality measurements made on beef selling in Smithfield market. Optimal weight, conformation and fat levels are derived and the revenue foregone by not obtaining these optima is estimated for Scotch, English, Republic of Ireland and Northern Irish beef. For other quality characteristics Scotch beef is taken as the norm and the revenue foregone by not producing to Scotch standards is estimated for English, Republic of Ireland and Northern Irish beef. Differences in quality levels are found to explain only a relatively small proportion of the price gap which exists between Scotch beef and beef from the three other areas.     

A NOTE ON LIVESTOCK BREEDING POLICIES IN STABLE AND DEVELOPMENT SITUATIONS

Multi-stage linear programming is used to develop sheep replacement policies in a number of different situations. Policies are developed for eight and sixteen year periods assuming, firstly a constant feed supply, and secondly, an increasing feed supply over the period. The results show the optimal flock composition together with the sheep sale activities for each year of the plan. The marginal value products indicate which constraints are the most important and whether any should be relaxed in order to make the model more realistic. It is concluded that it is not necessary to use a very long planning period in order to determine the activities for the early years. The results from the shorter planning period appear to be consistent with long-term goals.     

SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN UNORGANIZED RURAL CREDIT MARKETS*

In studies discussing the high rates of interest observed in unorganized rural credit markers emphasis has traditionally been given to supply factors as sources of the high interest rates and sometimes with the implication that the farmer is forced to use this credit in a less than optimal manner. The thrust of this article is to offer evidence that the farmer in the unorganized marker is willing on perfectly rational economic grounds to accept credit on such terms. The evidence comes from a study of the marginal productivity of capital of farmers operating in the informal market in Apatzingan county, Michoacan. Mexico. The high marginal value products of capital obtained over a reasonably large range demonstrate that the farmers in the area are willing on economic grounds to accept high rates of interest charged by lenders. Implications of these findings with respect to other areas and agricultural policy are set forth. Dans les études portant sur les faux ?intérêts élevés que ?on. recontre dans les marchés de credit rural non organisés. ?attention a été traditionnellement atriré sur ?offre comme éant la cause de ces laux élevés er, par voie de conséquence. que le fermier soir parfois obligé?utiliser ce credit dune façon qui n'est pas la meilleure. ?essentiel de cet article esr de montrer que. dans ce type de marché le fermier est prêt à accepter un credir dans ces conditions. pour des raisons économique parfaitement rationnelles. La démonstration apparait dans ?érude du rendement marginal du capital réalisée auprès des Fermièrs du marché non organisé?Apatzingan au Mirhoacan Mexiqueô. Le haut rendement marginal du capital. obtenu sur une période sufjlsamment grande. montre que les fermiers de cette region. pour raisons économiques. sont disposés à acceprer les taux ?intérêts élevés exigés par les prêteurs. Les implicarions de ces conclusions quonr aux autres région er quanr à la politique agricole sont énoncées.     

QUALITY PREMIUMS FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT IN THE GROWING ASIAN MARKETS

An hedonic price function is applied to Australia's wheat exports to the growing Asian markets. The values for the quality characteristics in the wheat markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand are estimated. The data base for the study is from the Australian Wheat Board shipments over the period 1984 to 1991. The sample is divided into two separate time periods to test the consistency in demand for export wheat and to trace recent trends in quality premiums. The implications of the results for wheat marketing and trade are explored.     

POLICY-INDUCED CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND STRATEGIC INTERACTION IN PROCESSED FOOD MARKETS

Attempts to curtail surplus agricultural production may result in excess capacity for food processors. This paper considers the impact of potential capacity constraints for different specifications of duopoly behaviour. If one firm's capacity is constrained, rents are shifted to the other under quantity competition, while both benefit under price competition. If both firms face capacity constraints, each benefits whatever the nature of competition. Consequently, food processing firms may benefit from cut-backs in agricultural production or quantitative trade restrictions, depending on the nature of strategic interaction, though consumers always lose.     

STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL CO-OPERATIVES IN BRITAIN

The theory of the behaviour of the co-operative firm has greatly advanced in recent years though this has not been accompanied by a major resurgence of empirical study. This paper is aimed at a basic investigation of some of the structural features of the British cooperative movement over the period 1975-82. Using various concentration measures familiar in industrial economics it draws a sharp contrast between the requisite and marketing sides. It then focuses on economies of scale using Stigler's survivor technique concluding that there is little evidence of their existence in either sector. Diversification of activity is also considered, where again a contrast is evident. The paper concludes with a note on the policy relevance of the analysis.     

关于上海专业水产产品批发市场的调查分析

本文通过对上海部分专业水产批发市场的走访调查,分析了市场前景及存在的问题,并就如何加强上海水产专业批发市场的建设与管理提出了对策与建议。