回归金融本质：互联网金融创新与“e租宝”案

互联网金融创新是"双创"的重要领域,"e 租宝"案例表明:互联网金融平台爆发式增长的同时积累了各类风险.互联网金融创新应回归金融本质,应用市场链理论可将互联网金融风险模块化为管理与技术的内控风险、超高利息承诺信用风险、低资产客户评估风险、监管生态风险、原始资本薄弱风险和模块间信息传递风险六个模块.互联网技术只是解决金融业务信息不对称的手段,应从金融本质视角出发结构化地防范互联网金融风险.     

金融风险顺周期效应的实证研究

在一般意义上,金融风险是顺周期的.特别是金融行为的"有效理性"、金融创新滥用和监管不当导致金融失衡,并形成高度非线性的"过度顺周期性".因此,对于金融风险顺周期效应的研究有助于我们深入把握金融运行的规律,科学预测和应对经济周期,有效防范金融风险.本文结合我国经济实际,对经济的周期性波动导致金融风险产生的机理进行相关经验分析和理论探讨,并对二者新型和谐关系的建立提出相关政策建议.     

资产证券化在金融风险形成中的作用分析

次贷危机表明,资产证券化等金融创新可以和商业银行体系一样促使金融风险的形成、积累和传导,但国内外学术界对资产证券化在金融风险积累和传导中的作用机制并没有形成完整的结论.本文深入分析了资产证券化的运作机制、基础资产及基本功能在金融风险形成和传导中的作用,并针对我国基本国情,对构建我国资产证券化的品种、基本模式、基础资产、评级机构以及监管体系提出了几点建议.     

科技向善:激发金融科技在金融创新与金融监管中正能量路径

金融科技的发展对金融创新与金融监管产生多维、深度影响。金融科技助力金融创新和金融监管,但也造成金融市场的伪创新以及科技过度金融化等乱象,挑战了金融监管,加剧了金融风险。保持金融科技、金融创新以及金融监管健康的生态对于经济的高质量发展至关重要。应推动金融科技坚守初心、坚持向善,回归科技的本源;同时完善法律规范和市场规则,加强金融监管,激发金融创新正能量,充分发挥金融、科技服务实体经济的作用,推动金融机构高质量发展,加强金融消费者合法权益保护,大力发展监管科技。     

迈进新时代 开启新征程 勇担银行业监管新使命

继全国金融工作会议之后,在党的十九大习近平总书记对金融业和金融监管再次提出要求:深化金融体制改革,增强金融服务实体经济能力;健全金融监管体系,守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。在中国特色社会主义新时代,在全面建设社会主义现代化强国、实现中华民族伟大复兴中国梦的新征程中,银行业监管部门要深刻认识经济减速换挡、结构调整优化、新旧动能转换三个经济金融新常态的特征,把握银行业从表内到表外、线下到线上、持有资产到管理资产的三个发展新趋势,掌握应用好监管科技新工具,有效应对金融科技创新带来的挑战,回归风险为本、合规为纲的监管理念,肩负起监管新使命。     

构建风险应急机制稳健推进金融创新——次级贷危机对中国资本市场的启示

次级贷危机即银行住房信贷在次级贷资产证券化推动下通过杠杆效应扩张信用,而后在房地产进入熊市时引发金融风险报复性回归,导致资本市场市值严重紧缩和流动性恶化的过程。从次级贷作为分散风险的工具,在实现金融产品创新、分散风险的同时进而演变成席卷全球金融风暴的过程看,次级贷发展的教训在于忽略了对资产证券化产品发展规模及其信用评级的监管,放大了信用风险,失去了对金融风险的有效控制。当前中国资本市场正处于新兴加转轨的关键时机,稳健推进金融产品创新进程与建立重大金融风险应对机制成为战略性的课题。随着股指期货、融资融券、权证、资产证券化等产品创新进程的加快,市场风险总量呈现不断累积的态势。建设一个充分确保风险与利益透明度的诚信市场体系,实现对金融风险的有效监控,应当成为战略考虑的要点。     

地方金融科技创新监管模式探究

金融科技时代,属地监管与全国经营的矛盾导致风险处置责任难以压实,地方成为金融科技创新以及金融风险防控的重要战场.在此背景下,如何调动地方的积极性,构建区域性风险防范、金融消费者保护以及实体经济发展的地方监管模式,是迫切需要解决的现实问题.课题基于重庆市金融科技创新监管试点工作,综合分析金融科技创新地方监管面临的问题,并...     

信托受益权转让模式对我国金融风险管理的现实意义

2003年6月下旬,中国华融资产管理公司在国内首次以信托受益权转让模式进行不良资产的处置.由于此次处置在交易的结构上与资产证券化具有某些共同的特征,被视为国内首例准资产证券化实践.从当前金融形势来看,我国金融系统结构特征导致金融风险过度累积在银行系统内部,而金融机构个体也亟需调整金融风险头寸的有效手段,信托受益权转让模式的产生是在国内现有约束条件下提高金融风险管理效率的有益选择.本文旨在从金融风险管理的宏观、微观两个层面,简要剖析信托受益权转让模式在我国的现实意义.     

论中国金融控股公司的法律监管

为了增强竞争力以适应国际金融业的发展趋势,我国金融机构采用了金融控股公司这种创新组织形式.对于现实中已经存在的金融控股公司必须建立相应的法律监管制度,以防范新的金融风险和维护金融业的稳健发展.不同于传统监管模式,对金融控股公司的监管要侧重于金融控股公司基于控股权而给整个金融集团带来的影响,法律应在监管对象的界定、监管权力的配置和监管的主要内容方面作出重点规范.     

金融资产管理公司并表管理问题探析

随着综合化经营的快速发展,金融资产管理公司已初步具备了金融控股集团的雏形.仅依靠单一监管不足以防范各类金融风险,由此银监会颁发了《金融资产管理公司并表监管指引(试行)》.然而股权结构及金融交易的复杂化、表内外业务的增多,为资产管理公司的并表管理提出了许多新的挑战.本文在理论分析的基础上,对并表管理的实践难点进行探讨,并提出加强资产管理公司并表管理的对策.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.