The economic effects of health care systems on national economies: an input-output analysis of Slovenia

This paper estimates the size of the economic impact generated by the Slovenian health care sector on the national economy in the 2009–2014 period. The study separately calculates output, income, employment, value-added and import multipliers for the Slovenian health care sector based on input-output analysis covering 49 sectors. Initially, values of simple output multipliers for all years are estimated. When the re-circulation of final demand through households is added to the direct and indirect economic effects, the values of total output multipliers considerably exceeds 2. The results suggest that an additional million EUR of final demand in the health care sector will, based on different scenarios, increase the total employment by 20 to 30 units. Moreover, the type II employment multipliers imply that under the best-case scenario one employee in the health care sector creates an additional 0.7 unit of employment in remaining structures of the observed economy. Stability evaluation of the derived multipliers suggests that the domestic health care sector may reduce volatilities in production, income and employment and consequently act as an important shock absorber in the economy.     

Mexico in the 1990s: The Main Cross-Sectional Facts

This paper describes the main cross-sectional facts on individual and household earnings, labor supply, income, consumption and wealth in Mexico in the decade of the 1990s. We use two different data sources: the Mexican Employment Survey (ENEU) and the Mexican Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH). The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we integrate the two surveys to provide a complete characterization of the changes in employment, wages, income, consumption and wealth in the 1990s. Second, we highlight some distinctive features that characterize the Mexican economy in this decade. In particular, we focus on the changes in the size of the informal sector and we study the relationship between changes in informality and changes in wage inequality.     

The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes in the European Union between 2000 and 2016. The novelty of our approach hinges on the use of real-time estimates of discretionary fiscal adjustments. In particular, exploiting a unique database covering anticipated and unanticipated tax changes, we provide the first narrative panel estimates of output and employment multipliers for tax changes. Our results suggest that medium-term revenue-based output multipliers are in the range of −1.1 to −1.9 for unanticipated tax changes. Preannounced changes, on the other hand, temporarily impact economic activity inversely upon announcement, resulting in a less than one-to-one change in ex post tax receipts, but portray up to one percentage point larger employment responses. Finally, we find evidence of asymmetry between the effects of revenue increasing and decreasing measures in the European Union.     

Sectoral Employment Dynamics in Australia and the COVID-19 Pandemic

We develop a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors for Australia. We use this model to determine the long-run effect of a 1% increase in economic activity in any chosen sector on aggregate employment. Our findings point to manufacturing and construction sectors as those that generate the largest positive spillovers for the aggregate economy. Moreover, we provide an interactive web-based app that produces our model's forecasts based on any user-specified scenario. As the restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic evolve, the sectoral employment multipliers together with these interactive tools will provide useful information for policymakers.     

What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries

We investigate how the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on output and employment vary with the state of the business cycle, monetary policy, public debt, the current account, and private credit. By examining the response of a large number of variables, we are also able to shed light on the transmission channels of fiscal policy. Our main finding is that short-term output multipliers are below unity, even in states in which multipliers are expected to be larger (eg when the output gap is negative or monetary policy tight). Key offsetting factors that reduce the size of multipliers and explain differences across states are the extent to which the external sector improves and monetary policy eases.     

Input Demand and the Short- and Long-Run Employment Thresholds: An Empirical Analysis for the German Manufacturing Sector

The concept of the 'employment threshold' plays an important role in the public discussion of unemployment. The employment threshold is defined as that growth rate of output necessary to keep employment constant despite the continuous rise in productivity. It is related to the Okun coefficient which describes the relationship between the changes in output and unemployment. Many contributions to this debate give the impression that the employment threshold is more or less a structural characteristic independent of economic variables. In this paper we derive short- and long-run employment thresholds from an input demand system and show empirically that they depend on factor prices and capital accumulation. Higher wage rates raise the employment threshold and reduce the probability that a positive output shock will increase employment.     

Swedish Multinationals and Competition from High- and Low-Wage Locations

This study uses data on Swedish multinationals to estimate cross-elasticities of labor demand in different locations. With a vertical decomposition of the firm's activities, whether there is substitution or complementarity between employment in different parts of the firm will depend on whether wage changes lead to a relocation of activities or simply to changes in marginal costs and/or demand for inputs in other parts of the firms. It is found that there is some evidence of a substitutionary relationship between employment in the Swedish parts of the firms and employment in other high-income locations, but no evidence of substitution stemming from employment in low-income locations.     

A Regional Analysis of the Impact of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment on Wages in Mexico, 1984–2000

The conventional Heckscher–Ohlin model of trade predicts an equalizing effect of trade on wages in developing countries abundant in less‐skilled labor. Contrary to these predictions, skill premiums and skill demand increased in Mexico following trade liberalization. “New” trade theories have offered several channels through which trade can increase relative wages and demand for skilled workers. One such channel is foreign direct investment and outsourcing. Using the Mexican Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) covering 1984–2000, the author examines the relationship between the demand for skill and maquiladora employment across regions and states. In contrast to previous studies based on manufacturing data for the 1980s, little evidence is found that growth in maquiladora employment is positively related to the increase in relative wages or wage‐bill share of more educated workers.     

基于投入--占用--产出技术的自然资源乘数分析

本文在简要介绍投入—占用—产出系数表的基础上,给出了考虑固定资产占用的资源乘数计算公式。然后,以青岛市为例,研究了青岛市的海洋鱼类资源乘数。结果表明,1997年青岛市渔业部门的海洋鱼类资源乘数,考虑固定资产占用比不考虑固定资产占用有明显增加;考虑经济系统对生态系统的影响比仅考虑生态系统对经济系统投入时的资源乘数也有所增加;进一步考虑生态系统内部各成分之间的联系时,资源乘数又有所增加。     

The Relationship Between Environmentally Sustainable Income, Employment and Wages in Australia

The environment is an asset that provides essential services. Like any other asset, its services will diminish as it depreciates. The environmentally sustainable income of a nation depends on a sustained flow of these services, and can be estimated by including the environment in a macroeconomic framework, with a goal to achieve both full employment and sustainability. The relationship of national income to employment is estimated at full employment, actual employment and the employment level that is necessary to maintain sustainable income, for the Australian economy. There proved to be a widening gap between actual income and environmentally sustainable income, and between actual income and income to guarentee full employment. Wage reduction and improvement of technology are analysed as possible ways to meet the goal of an environmentally sustainable income.     

中国第三产业发展与就业增长关系的实证研究

根据发达国家经济发展经验,第三产业的发展能够有效地拉动就业的增加。同样就业的增加也会反过来拉动经济的发展。通过对第三产业经济增长和就业关系进行ADF检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现第三产业增长率与其就业增长率之间存在长期稳定的关系;第三产业劳动力就业增长率是第三产业增长率的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立,即中国第三产业就业规模的扩大将不断地为第三产业创造更多的增加值,但是第三产业产值的增加并不能明显地带动就业的增长。     

Modelling the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets

This paper examines the linkages between US and Latin American stock markets during the 1995–2002 period using recently developed cointegration techniques that allow for structural shifts in the long-run relationship. Results suggest that when conventional cointegration tests are applied, a long-run relationship is found only in the cases of Brazil and Mexico for the Dow Jones (DJ) index, and in the case of Brazil for the Standard and Poor's 500 (SP500) index. In contrast, if the possibility of structural breaks is introduced, strong evidence is found in favour of such a relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Venezuelan indices and the DJ index after the 1998 financial turmoil, and between the Brazilian and Mexican indices and the DJ index before such turbulence, while some marginal cointegration is detected between the Mexican and DJ indices from February 1998. Additionally, evidence is found of a cointegrating relationship between the Argentine, Chilean and Mexican indices and the SP500 index from August 1998, April 1999 and October 1999, respectively, and between the Brazilian and the SP500 indices before November 1997, as well as some marginal cointegration between the Mexican and SP500 indices before October 1999. The results suggest that the gains from international diversification for investors with long holding periods is limited.     

中国近年来经济增长与 就业增长间数量关系解释

本文尝试解释为何中国就业变化和经济增长间数量关系并不稳定,两个问题将被处理：（1）就业数据是否有偏误;（2）一些中国特有的影响因素在就业和增长关系间是否有调节作用。本文的研究发现：（1）统计局公布的城镇增加就业数据大致可靠;（2）经济增长对就业有显著拉动作用,也就是说使用另一种表达的奥肯定律得到论证;（3）国有经济部门在就业和增长间起到了调节作用,并且对经济周期不同阶段影响有对称性。     

The time-varying relationship between credit spreads and employment growth

After the global financial crisis, several central banks introduced unconventional monetary policies, such as quantitative easing (QE). If QE increases asset prices, but does not boost the real economy to the same extent, the relationship between credit spreads and employment growth will weaken. This study investigates this issue for the U.S. in a moving-windows framework. Our results suggest that the link between credit spreads and employment growth is lower during bubbles and recessions. We also find that the relationship weakened after the Fed introduced QE.     

企业创新、市场化进程与区域就业水平

当前我国经济进入“换挡调整、转型升级”的新阶段,如何通过企业创新激发市场活力,提高区域就业水平,是“新常态”时期必须攻克的新难关。系统探究了工业企业创新对区域就业水平的影响,揭示了市场化进程的调节作用。研究发现：微观企业创新显著促进了区域就业水平提高,并且,随着市场化水平的提升,企业创新对区域就业的促进作用会显著增强。进一步考察企业性质发现,企业规模和产权属性对企业创新和区域就业水平具有显著调节作用：相较于大型企业和国有企业,中小型企业和非国有企业创新对就业水平的促进作用更强,而市场化进程对不同性质企业创新投资与区域就业水平的关系具有显著的差异性影响。最后,从政府完善市场化环境、激发企业创新投资动力、提升就业水平与稳定社会秩序等角度提出了政策建议。     

Worker Productivity, Working Time Reduction, And The Short–Run And Long–Run Employment Effects

This paper illustrates a shirking–type efficiency wage model to explain why shorter working hours cause an ambiguous effect on employment as the empirical result. We find that shorter working hours have an uncertain impact on the work effort, and the relationship between work effort and shorter working time is a decisive factor in the employment effect of working time reduction. Moreover, it is also found that, given the zero profit constraint, the long–run employment effect of reducing working hours will intensify the short–run employment effect.     

经济新常态下就业困难群体失业趋势研究*

本文探讨了宏观经济运行新特征对就业困难群体失业的影响。研究发现城镇失业与平均工资显著正相关,与财政支出、一年期贷款利率和平均受教育年限显著负相关,与经济增长率和全要素生产率等无显著相关性。“4050”人员、刚毕业大学生和青年农民工是三类重点困难群体,失业趋势呈现长期失业加重、失业转就业难度增大和短期失业淤积。本文建议将“就业困难群体就业比较充分”作为就业工作的重要目标,多措并举,妥善应对新常态下的失业问题。     

OUTPUT–EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP ACROSS SECTORS: A LONG‐ VERSUS SHORT‐RUN PERSPECTIVE

This paper investigates the nature of the output–employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period 1988–2008. Even if we fail to find a long‐run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long‐run relationships for the aggregate output with non‐agricultural employment and sectoral employment levels for seven of nine sectors that we consider. However, a further investigation for the output and employment relationship within a short‐run perspective does not reveal statistically significant relationships for either total employment or non‐agriculture employment, or eight of the nine sectors that we consider. Although there are various long‐run relationships between output and employment, the short‐run links between demand and employment are weak. The various implications of this for the economy and the labour market are discussed. As a result, maintaining high levels of output in the long‐run creating demand is essential for employment generation.     

Fiscal Transparency,Elections and Public Employment: Evidence from the OECD

There is considerable variation in levels and changes in public employment within and between developed democracies. This article highlights the importance of fiscal transparency in determining changes in public employment. It argues that economic growth increases public employment under low fiscal transparency and that this effect is strongest in years of election. These hypotheses are tested on a panel of 20 OECD countries from 1995 to 2010. The analyses show substantial evidence in favor of the arguments. Fiscal transparency lowers the positive effect of growth on public employment, a relationship, which is most robust in election years.