Demand for money in developing countries: Some theoretical and empirical results

This paper examines the role of credit restraint variables in the demand for money function for developing countries where interest rates are inoperative. A simultaneous equation model is proposed to allow for the interaction between these variables and the supply of money. Statistical results indicate that credit restraint variables in the demand for money function have stronger explanatory power than either the inflation rate or the real rate of return on money. The paper also deals with partial demand adjustment and adaptive expectations mechanisms with particular reference to the existence of credit rationing and substitution between money and real assets.     

Process consistency and monetary reform: Some further evidence

In this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process. In addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the German case, we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by Cagan. The results are consistent with our earlier conclusions: in extreme hyperinflation, process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process.     

Demand for money in open economies

The demand for real cash balances deduced from an underlying portfolio model of the financial market is shown to depend upon domestic variables and foreign monetary developments. The model is estimated using quarterly postwar data for Canada, Germany, UK and US. There is clear evidence that demand for money is affected not only by changes in domestic variables such as permanent income, domestic interest rate and price expectations but also by fluctuations in exchange rate expectations and foreign interest rates. The conclusion, that domestic monetary policy is fairly ineffective and domestic financial markets are highly vulnerable to changes in foreign financial and monetary developments need to be modified in light of the results presented in this paper.     

The role of money supply shocks in the short-run demand for money

Previous money-demand models are either inconsistent with contemporaneous adjustment of the price level to expected changes in the nominal money supply or imply implausible interest-rate fluctuations in response to innovations in nominal money. We propose a shock-absorber money- demand model in which money supply shocks affect the synchronization of asset transactions and so engender a temporary increase or decrease in desired money holdings. Expected changes do not engender such fluctuations in real money inventories. In simultaneous estimates for eight industrial countries, the shock-absorber model proved empirically superior.     

Australian money supply analysis: The relationship between the monetary base,secondary reserves and the money supply

Utilising the criteria of predictability, stability over time, and instrument stability this paper examines the relationship between the reserve base and the money supply in Australia. Various modifications to the money supply function are made to incorporate the influence of direct monetary controls, of the overdraft lending system, and of the increased substitutability of government securities for high powered money arising from the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy of pegging government security yields. Doubt is cast on the ability of the Australian authorities to control the primary monetary aggregates on a short-run basis.     

Sources of professional staff turnover in public accounting firms: Some further evidence

A recent article by Rhode et al. (1977) identified 39 variables associated with professional staff turnover in public accounting firms. The present study attempted to extend this prior work by examining the antecedents of the turnover act, namely those variables associated with the turnover decision. Using a valence-instrumentality-expectancy framework, measures of task outcome valence and instrumentality were evaluated with turnover expectations for a sample of 306 staff-level accountants. The findings indicated that the turnover decision was largely a function of negatively-valued task outcomes and the likelihood of obtaining these outcomes in one's current position, and the higher likelihood of obtaining certain positive outcomes in alternative positions.     

Common stock returns,real activity,money, and inflation: Some international evidence

This paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the United States is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966–1979. Consistent with Fama's ‘proxy-effect’ hypothesis, we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables. Real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns. A puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries.     

Permanent income in the consumption and the demand for money functions

This paper examines whether the concept of permanent income relevant for consumption decisions is the same as the one relevant for cash balance decisions. The equivalence has often been assumed in theoretical and empirical work, but it has never been explicitly tested for, although some comparisons have been made. Using Canadian quarterly data, consumption and demand for money functions are estimated jointly. The results indicate that the hypothesis that the elasticity of income expectations is the same in the two functions cannot be rejected. This conclusion holds whether or not the same income variable is used in the two functions.     

The market for public accounting services: Demand,supply and regulation

An analysis of the market for public accounting services is derived from agency theory. The theory shows that owners and their agents (employees) benefit from monitoring. Furthermore, the owners and managers of enterprises bear the cost when potential investors and users of financial statements (outsiders) fear that those in control operate the enterprise contrary to the interests of the outsiders. The demand for public accounting services is derived from these concerns. The public accountants' comparative advantages in providing this service, the structure of the market supplying the service, and the nature of the demand for its regulation follow from the initial analysis. In the last part of the paper the staff reports of the 1972 U.S. House of Representative (Moss) and Senate (Metcalf) committees are examined and compared with the available evidence.     

Black-market exchange-rate expectations and the domestic demand for money: Some empirical results

This paper analyzes the effects of expectations about future exchange-rate adjustments on the demand for money. These effects are studied empirically for the case of countries which have imposed foreign-exchange restrictions. The results obtained for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia indicate that the demand for money is significantly reduced when expectations of black-market depreciation intensify; and that when this variable (for which the proxy used is the divergence of the black-market exchange rate from purchasing power parity) is omitted from the demand-for-money function, the response of the demand for money to changes in the expected rate of domestic inflation tends to be overestimated.     

Correspondent balances,services, and the money supply

This paper investigates the money supply process on a microeconomic level by developing an inventory-theoretic model of commercial bank reserves, correspondent balances, and correspondent services; by deriving the comparative-static properties of the model for member and non-member banks; and by incorporating these properties into a stochastic money supply framework. In general, correspondent balances and services were found to have mixed effects on the reserve-requirement and interest-rate sensitivities of both the expected value and the variance of the money supply, but most of this ambiguity should eventually be reduced by the Monetary Control Act of 1980.     

关于中美货币供应量的比较分析

通过对中美金融市场一系列数据比较可见,中国未来在金融市场建设方面将有巨大的空间。人民币国际化、排媒现象和混业经营三大趋势,将会是提高中国金融市场广度和深度的重要因素,同时也将提高货币的流通效率。     

我国货币供应量与经济增长的实证研究

货币供应量与经济增长的关系问题一直是金融理论与实务工作者关注的焦点。近两年来,我国货币政策频繁运用,货币供应量在经济生活中发挥了越来越大的作用。为确保我国经济平稳、健康、快速发展,有必要对我国货币供应量（特别是M2）与国内生产总值（GDP）的关系进行实证研究,并在此基础上提出一些适合我国国情的政策和建议。     

Real money balances as a productive input: Further evidence

Using a translog production function and data from the United States private sector over the period 1929–1972, this paper clarifies the theoretical debate which has occured on whether real money balances are an original factor input or a catalyst with a role similar to technological innovation. Real money balances are found to be an important factor input that cannot be treated as separable from the primary factor inputs capital and labor. Furthermore, the results indicate that real money balances are substitutes for capital but complements with labor while capital and labor are, in a relative sense complements.     

Demand functions and the integrability condition

Abstract

This is not written to prolong the discussion of integrability, a topic on which at long last there seems to be universal agreement on all essential points. I shall only give a brief answer to a question that has recently been raised by Dr. P. A. Samuelson 1 about a theorem of mine published in this journal². Stating that he is not quite clear about my theorem, Dr. Samuelson says that this might be due to an ambiguity in translation from the Swedish. My answer is that I cannot seennything wrong in the theorem. Some c'omments are added to clarify my position.     

International income-shifting regulations: Empirical evidence from Australia and Canada

This study examines market reactions to two different approaches to reduce income shifting in an international setting. The two methods are described and event studies are performed using stock market data from Canada and Australia. Samples of companies from both countries are partitioned into firms predicted to be affected versus unaffected by each country's event. Australia's regulation taxes profits arising in low-tax subsidiaries at Australian rates. Canada's method defines acceptable transfer prices (arm's-length transactions) and describes enforcement and audit policies. We find evidence of stock market reactions on some of the event dates for Australian and Canadian firms affected by these two approaches.     

Commodity money inflation: theory and evidence from France in 1350–1436

This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the 14th and 15th centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. However, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money.     

On money and output: Is money redundant?

There is an emerging consensus that money can be largely ignored in making monetary policy decisions. Rudebusch and Svensson [1999, Policy Rules and Inflation Targeting. In Taylor, J.B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 203-246; 2002, Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data. European Economic Review 46, 417-442] provide some empirical support for this view. We reconsider the role of money and find that money is not redundant. More specifically, there is a significant statistical relationship between lagged values of money and the output gap, even when lagged values of real interest rates and lagged values of the output gap are accounted for. We also find that inside and outside money provide significant information in predicting movements in the output gap.