"中国之谜"-文献综述和一个假说

该文首先就中国之谜产生的背景及其争论进行了总结分析.然后通过引入以资本市场为代表的虚拟经济部门将传统的局限于实体经济部门的货币数量论拓展为包括资本市场、商品市场和货币市场的广义货币数量论模型,在新模型框架下分析了中国之谜的生成机理;我们发现大量货币在资本市场的积聚是货币供应量与物价关系反常的直接原因.中国之谜是货币虚拟化过程中虚拟经济和实体经济关系失调的结果.     

“中国之谜”——文献综述和一个假说

本首先就“中国之谜”产生的背景及其争论进行了总结分析。然后通过引入以资本市场为代表的虚拟经济部门将传统的局限于实体经济部门的货币数量论拓展为包括资本市场、商品市场和货币市场的广义货币数量论模型，在新模型框架下分析了“中国之谜”的生成机理；我们发现大量货币在资本市场的积聚是货币供应量与物价关系反常的直接原因。“中国之谜”是货币虚拟化过程中虚拟经济和实体经济关系失调的结果。     

“中国之谜”原因新解:金融资产膨胀假说

本简要回顾了“中国之谜”的由来并通过实证分析进一步证实了“中国之谜”的存在，然后在前人研究基础上提出了“金融资产膨胀假说”，试图解释“中国之谜”。实证分析结果表明，当考虑到金融资产这一新的变量对货币供应量的影响之后，传统的货币供应量与物价之间正相关的关系消失了。     

"中国之谜":理论及基于中国的经验分析

本文首先简要回顾了“中国之谜“的由来，并通过实证分析证实了“中国之谜“的存在，然后在前人研究的基础上提出了“金融资产囤积假说“，试图解释“中国之谜“。实证分析结果表明：当考虑到金融资产这一新的变量对货币供应量的影响之后，传统的货币供应量与物价之间正相关的关系消失了。     

关于“中国之谜”的一个研究综述

自1993年,麦金农提出中国之谜,即在财政下降的同时保持价格水平稳定与高金融增长以来,国内对此问题展开了大量研究。但问题依然存在,学术上也并没有提出统一认可的理论对其进行解释。文章对以往的研究作了系统性的综述,在费雪方程式的基础上将以往的相关学说进行了归类,分为:(1)统计偏差说;(2)货币消失说;(3)货币流通速度下降说。并发现既往的研究缺陷在于:(1)缺乏一个统一的在逻辑上具备因果关系的货币数量方程,可以解释货币流通速度的下降,甚至包含了货币的传导过程;(2)缺乏准确的数量指标,或者缺乏适当的调整方法,使得现有的指标可以适用于模型。     

内生货币和“中国之谜”:基于存量-流量结构的新解说

外生货币供给是主流理论分析的一个缺陷。本文考察了内生货币理论的起源、发展、争论和症结,提出一个基于宏观存量-流量结构的资产抵押和收入预期一致的内生货币假说,重新解释了货币数量论和收入流通速度。由此对M2/GDP的"中国之谜"提出新的解释:水平高源于高投资、高负债、低工资份额和低资本回报的增长模式;而持续上升源于增长数量和增长质量的不一致,在缺乏企业破产机制和资产价值重估的情况下,形成经济增长越快、居民储蓄越多而不良信贷越高的悖论,固定汇率制下的外汇占款大幅攀升恰好弥补了企业的现金流不足,并进一步造成M2/GDP畸高。     

最优货币区内生性假说"争议"探析--F&R内生性假说和Krugman专业化假说的对立与并存

作为最优货币区(OCA)内生性研究重要分支的F&R内生性假说,在贸易一体化与经济相关性的动态作用关系上,与Krugman专业化假说存在截然不同的观点.两个对立假说通过对OCA收益和成本的不同修正,导致迥异的政策建议.然而,笔者基于Stockman经济增长率分解模型分析后认为:两种假说的分歧源自贸易一体化作用于经济周期渠道的不同关注,即存在"视角差异";两种对立假说并存于现实经济活动中,并都对OCA收益和成本产生重大修正.     

"中国之谜":基于货币存贷差转换视角的解释

中国之谜的实质是货币供给长期快速增长下物价水平何以能保持稳定。不同历史时期引起该现象的主导原因不同,在我国目前宏观经济背景下,巨额存贷差的存在及快速提高一方面推动了M2的高增长率,另一方面又由于绝大部分存差的不可动用性质,使得该部分货币没能作用于实体经济,进而对物价没有产生影响,因此,巨额存差在很大程度上是目前中国之谜的主导原因。     

李约瑟之谜与长期经济增长——一个文献综述

在经济史文献研究中,李约瑟之谜引起了国内外学者广泛的研究兴趣。在技术等各方面曾一度领先,直到16、17世纪仍与西欧国家站在同一起跑线上的中国为何迅速衰落,又在改革开放以来重新崛起?是什么因素导致一国出现长期经济增长和经济繁荣?文章对已有文献进行梳理的基础上,尝试在众多的经济变量中分离出决定长期经济增长的关键因素,以期对此类文献的研究提供新的视角。     

“浴盆”曲线假说及验证：中国农户消费行为分析

一、导言 理性预期革命以前,生命周期-持久收入假说模型(LC／PIH)一直是研究居民消费行为(储蓄行为)的主要理论框架。根据LC／PIH模型,从效用最大化原则出发,消费者会在生命周期中平滑其消费量,未来的消费计划取决于未来收入和财产的平均值。这一结论是在确定性条件下得出的,故被称为     

对国外产业集群经济效果及其形成机制的综述与评论

关于产业集群经济效果的研究重点经历了由生产成本、交易成本、代理成本这些静态的效率性向以创新为代表的动态效率性转变的过程;同时作为解释效率性的说明变量也在从在库成本、运输成本等经济要素向道德规范、认知模式、社会资本等制度要素转移.从逻辑关系来看,关于产业集群形成机制的研究可以分为三个学派,即要素论学派、模型论学派和动态论学派,动态论学派代表了有关产业集群形成机制研究的最前沿.     

经济全球化与“新特里芬悖论”

当前的全球性国际收支失衡,是经济全球化条件下的制度性、结构性失衡,是“特里芬悖论”似的重现。根据国际货币体系稳定的条件,从关键货币的市场竞争结构、汇率调节的有效性、国际合作机制、金融全球化下的财富效应、发展中国家的金融脆弱性等角度看,全球国际收支失衡首先要解决发达国家,特别是美国的双赤字问题,改革不对称的国际货币体系,形成国际合作机制,减少发展中国家的福利损失。     

MEASURING OUTPUT FROM THE PUBLIC SECTOR: A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF THE ATKINSON REVIEW

In 1993 a new page was turned in national accounting. The United Nations Standards of National Accounting recommended a new standard for the measurement of output from the public sector. Implementation has recently begun in many countries, in Europe based on a European Union directive. In the U.K. the Atkinson Review in 2005 came up with a series of recommendations. This article examines its recommendations concerning the definition and valuation of government outputs. For the non‐market sector a market analog is recommended by the Review. However, several of its recommendations are inconsistent with that, championing social value as a basis for definitions and measurement. If taken seriously it will lead to arbitrary and politically controversial factors inserted into national accounts. The article highlights the norm that GDP is a measure of production, and advocates adhering to the market analog and following well recognized practices of national accounting.     

MARKETS AND THE ENVIRONMENT: A CRITICAL REAPPRAISAL

The environmental problem is no different from any other economic problem. The basic problem is scarcity. Wants are unlimited while resources are limited. Once we recognize our inability to satisfy all of our ecological wants, how do we decide which wants we will satisfy? Most efforts to address environmental concerns have used political institutions to answer this question and to devise policy responses. Environmental concerns have been addressed in the same manner that socialist nations sought to address broader economic concerns. This paper argues that such policies cannot succeed in the environmental realm any better than they did in the broader economic realm. Whether the political approach chosen relies on command-and-control or “market-based” mechanisms (eco-taxes or eco-quotas) matters little in resolving government's inability to prioritize. The dispersed nature and enormity of information needed to prioritize risks and the inability of government to create the rich system of incentives necessary to mobilize human ingenuity renders effective government controls infeasible. This paper argues for greater attention to environmental problems but concludes that we can better address environmental quality by integrating ecological resources into the economy via ecological privatization. This property rights approach to environmental policy—“free market environmentalism”—may entice more economists to address the important environmental questions and devise more appropriate solutions.     

COURNOT AND BERTRAND EQUILIBRIA COMPARED: A CRITICAL REVIEW AND AN EXTENSION FROM THE OUTPUT‐STRUCTURE VIEWPOINT*

This paper compares Bertrand competition with Cournot competition. In previous studies, the welfare ranking has not been examined in any general setting. One purpose of this work is to fill this gap. In the Zanchettin model, the ranking regarding the less efficient firm's output is sensitive to the degree of asymmetry between firms, whereas the welfare ranking is not. Another goal of this study aims at dealing with this paradox. We demonstrate that the rankings regarding average price, average output and the Herfindahl index are not sensitive to the degree of asymmetry, and hence can explain the welfare ranking.     

DIRECTED SEARCH AND THE BERTRAND PARADOX

I study a directed search model of oligopolistic competition, extended to incorporate general capacity constraints, congestion effects, and pricing based on ex post demand. In the presence of any one of these ingredients, the Bertrand paradox fails to hold. Hence, despite the emphasis that has been placed by the literature on sellers' capacity constraints as a resolution to the paradox, the existence of such constraints is only a subcase of a general class of environments where the paradox fails. Specifically, Bertrand's paradox will not arise whenever the buyers' expected utility from visiting a seller is decreasing in that seller's realized demand.