Incomplete Information, Trading Costs and Cross‐autocorrelations in Stock Returns

This paper provides an economic rationale for the cross‐autocorrelation patterns in stock returns in the context of a microstructure model in which investors have incomplete information. The paper shows that in a market in which investors are informed about only a sub‐set of stocks, the emergence of lead‐lag, cross‐autocorrelations is a function of the cost of trading in other stocks based on information about the sub‐set of stocks. If cross‐trading costs are high, informed investors will trade only in the sub‐set of stocks they are informed about; if cross‐trading costs are moderate, informed investors will randomize between trading and not trading in other stocks; and if cross‐trading costs are low, they will trade in all stocks. When informed investors trade only in a sub‐set of stocks, prices of stocks with more informed trading will adjust to common factor information faster than the prices of stocks with less informed trading giving rise to asymmetric lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelations. When informed investors trade in all stocks, asymmetric lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelations will disappear as a result of their cross‐market arbitrage trading. These results provide a number of testable implications for lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelation patterns. The data is consistent with the empirical predictions .
(J.E.L.G12, G14).     

Game,set and match: the favourite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges

We test for the existence of Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis betting exchanges. Despite these being order-driven markets, with no direct participation from bookmakers, we have found very similar results to those obtained by Lahvi?ka (2014) for bookmakers’ betting markets: the bias is stronger in matches between lower-ranked players, in later round matches and in high profile tournaments. This suggests that bookmakers’ adjustments to respond to informed betting are not the main driver of FLB. The varying magnitude of the bias across different types of event in the main market also weakens arguments linking FLB to gamblers’ risk preferences, and suggests the need to consider the microstructure features of the market together with the cognitive biases highlighted in the behavioural finance literature.     

Fiscal policy, long‐run growth, and welfare in a stock‐flow model of public goods

Abstract.  We introduce public capital and public services as inputs in an endogenous growth model. We show that the growth rate depends on the apportionment of tax revenues between the accumulation of public capital and the provision of public services. When public spending is financed by proportional income taxes, the growth rate, the level of public spending as a proportion of GDP, the level of investment in public capital as a proportion of total public spending, and the level of private investment as a proportion of total private spending all are lower in the equilibrium outcome than in the optimal outcome. JEL classification: E62, O40     

High-Frequency Trading,Liquidity Withdrawal,and the Breakdown of Conventions in Foreign Exchange Markets

Conventions, or “that the existing state of affairs will continue indefinitely, except in so far as we have specific reasons to expect a change” (Keynes 1936), play a central role in over-the-counter markets. For instance, by allowing expectations about the future to become more harmonized and orderly, they act as stabilizers for the provision of liquidity. Conventions might, of course, change at any time. Nonetheless, by being attached to the daily trading routine and/or integrated within the institutional structure, the confidence in their relevance and validity can be long-lasting. In the foreign exchange market, in particular, where prices are quoted to end-users on demand, market-making banks rely on a convention to quote prices to each other to maintain liquidity. However, the rise of algorithmic and high-frequency trading poses a practical as well as a theoretical challenge to such conventions. By reacting ultra-fast to new information, including to new limit orders submitted by others, markets largely populated with algorithmic traders have become susceptible to a withdrawal of liquidity at an unprecedented speed and scale. Using a high-frequency dataset provided by Electronic Broking Services (EBS), we investigate the process of liquidity withdrawal from the foreign exchange spot market. By doing so, we consider the crowding out of conventions associated with liquidity provision, traditionally upheld through mutual understanding among financial institutions – in other words, reciprocity and trust among humans.     

Monetary policy in a cash‐in‐advance economy: employment, capital accumulation, and the term structure of interest rates

Abstract.  In this paper we study the effects of monetary policies on employment, capital accumulation, consumption, and the term structure of interest rates in a cash‐in‐advance economy, where money is required for consumption expenditures. Monetary policy involves targeting the inflation rate. The detailed dynamics of the model are fully worked out. As no numerical analysis is involved, we are able to identify very clearly the different channels through which monetary policy will impinge on the important macroeconomic variables. The model is also used to discuss the 'Great Canadian Slump.' JEL Classification: E52 and E43     

Fairness and Incentives in a Multi‐task Principal–Agent Model

This paper reports on a two‐task principal–agent experiment in which only one task is contractible. The principal can either offer a piece‐rate contract or a (voluntary) bonus to the agent. Bonus contracts strongly outperform piece‐rate contracts. Many principals reward high effort on both tasks with substantial bonuses. Agents anticipate this and provide high effort on both tasks. In contrast, almost all agents with a piece‐rate contract focus on the first task and disregard the second. Principals understand this and predominantly offer bonus contracts. This behavior contradicts the self‐interest theory but is consistent with theories of fairness.     

上市公司内部人交易披露延迟及其经济后果研究——来自上海股票市场的经验证据

文章研究了我国上市公司内部人交易信息披露延迟的现状及其影响因素,以及披露延迟对内部人交易市场反应的影响。研究发现,整体而言,内部人交易存在披露延迟;交易披露延迟时间的长短与交易方向、交易是否处于信息敏感期、公司流通股比例、交易规模有关;在信息披露延迟严重的买入样本组,内部人职务对披露延迟产生了影响。市场给予内部人卖出股票负面评价而对买入股票的反应不显著;内部人交易的市场反应不受信息披露延迟影响。     

期货市场交易量与收益及波动关系的分位分析

采用分位数回归方法对上海期货市场铜、铝和燃料油期货收益及波动与成交量的动态关系进行实证研究。该方法允许估计不同分位的方程,从而得到条件分布的完整描述。结果显示上海期货市场期货价格收益具有异方差的特点;存在量价齐扬和量价背离现象;收益波动和成交量之间随着波动增大呈现逐渐加强的正向关系,从而说明我国期货市场信息传播符合混合分布假说。     

The Organisational Evolution of the Childcare Regime in Germany: Issues and Dynamics of a Public‐private Partnership

In many European countries, institutional childcare has developed as a field shaped by both statutory and associative agency, the German system being emblematic for this. In Germany, a considerable proportion of childcare services are provided by nonprofit organizations under public regulation. Departing from a historical overview, the article elaborates on the mixed economy of welfare in that system and sheds light on recent transformations of the existing public‐private partnership. It is argued that with a range of cultural and civil‐society‐related evolutions, the system is going to adopt elements of a market regulation that are prone to change the rules of games within the partnership as such.     

The Taxation of Financial Capital under Asymmetric Information and the Tax‐competition Paradox

Information sharing between governments is examined in an optimal‐taxation framework. We introduce a taxonomy of alternative systems of international capital‐income taxation and characterize the choice of tax rates and information exchange. The model reproduces the conclusion found in earlier literature that integration of international caopital markets may lead to the under‐provision of publicly provided goods. However, in contrast to previous results in the literature, under‐provision occurs due to inefficiently coordinated expectations. We show that there exists a second equilibrium with an efficient level of public‐good provision as well as complete and voluntary information exchange between national tax authorities.     

Tax Base and Crowding‐in Effects of Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy

A dynamic general equilibrium business cycle model is constructed with staggered price adjustment, monopolistic wage setting and distortionary taxation. The government purchases goods, runs an unemployment benefit system and balances its budget through a proportional tax on labour income. A temporary tax‐financed increase in government expenditures can lower the tax rate through a demand‐induced widening of the tax base. It is shown analytically that this allows private consumption to rise, under realistic conditions, despite the negative wealth effect of increased fiscal spending.     

Joint Adjustment of House Prices, Stock Prices and Output Towards Short‐run Equilibrium

A dynamic IS‐LM model including houses and stocks as additional assets will be analysed in this paper. Providing also housing services, a major consumption item for most households, houses create an additional link between the monetary and the real sector, distinct from the traditional wealth effect channel. We analyse the adjustment path of output, house prices and stock prices after policy shocks within a rational expectation setup. Depending crucially on the elasticity of housing services demand, different reaction patterns of asset prices will emerge. The results are contrasted with relevant empirical findings, particularly Lastrapes (Journal of Housing Economics, 11 (2002), pp. 40–74), leading to the identification of plausible elasticity ranges. The analysis sheds new light on the ongoing discussion about demand effects from changing real estate wealth and about determinants of house price fluctuations.     

Trading Hot-Air. The Influence of Permit Allocation Rules,Market Power and the US Withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol

After the conferences in Bonn and Marrakech, it is likely that international emissions trading will be realized in the near future. Major influences on the permit market␣are the institutional detail, the participation structure and the treatment of hot-air. Different scenarios not only differ in their implications for the demand and supply of permits and thus the permit price, but also in their allocative effects. In this paper we discuss likely the institutional designs for permit allocation in the hot-air economies and the use of market power and quantify the resulting effects by using the computable general equilibrium model DART. It turns out that the amount of hot-air supplied will be small if hot-air economies cooperate in their decisions. Under welfare maximization, more hot-airis supplied than in the case where governments try to maximize revenues from permit sales.     

市场型环境规制与企业绿色创新——来自碳排放交易试点的证据

为研究碳排放交易政策对企业绿色技术创新的影响,验证“波特假说”在中国市场化环境规制改革背景下的成立性,以2006—2019年中国A股上市公司的绿色技术创新数据为研究样本,利用双重差分和三重差分模型研究发现碳排放交易政策对企业绿色创新具有显著的促进作用,从而“波特假说”成立,且该结论能够通过稳健性检验;进一步研究发现,碳排放交易政策对企业绿色技术创新的促进作用主要来源于企业原有创新活动基础上的“杠杆作用”;拓展研究发现,该促进作用主要存在于国有企业、规模较大的企业和高碳排放的行业;此外,碳排放交易试点政策在提高绿色创新质量方面起到了积极作用。     

Rigidities and Inflationary Bias in a Monetary Union: The Consequences of EU Enlargement

The authors analyze how the design of the central bank interacts with the implementation of structural reforms in a monetary union. They show that the first-best is achieved when the common central bank is collectively designed, irrespective of whether or not reforms are cooperatively implemented. On the other hand, in the case where the central bank has been designed, an enlargement of the union worsens the incumbent members' welfare unless the inflation target of the monetary authorities diminishes or the accession countries implement a sufficient level of reforms prior to joining in.     

Information,Pricing and Efficiency in Cash and Futures Markets: The Case of Hogs

The price leadership roles among hog cash and futures markets are assessed to locate points of price discovery and to examine flows of information among these markets. Several years of data are analyzed using lead/lag causality analysis and strength of linear causality measures. Although significant instantaneous relationships exist among hog cash and futures markets, one-way causality tests indicate that generally the futures market dominates cash hog markets in the price discovery process.     

The effects of broadcast on a team's market and on competitive balance from the perspective of fans maximizing utility

We examine the decision of fans to attend the game or watch the exact televised match to address whether broadcast lowers revenue collected at the gate and worsens competitive balance. In most cases, broadcasts lower attendance and collection at the gate but do not necessarily worsen competitive balance. Weaker teams can benefit from broadcast revenue and catch up with their stronger counterpart. However, teams that make more money from broadcasts and a broad fan base can gain more advantages from broadcasts and worsen competitive balance.     

Debt Crises and Risk‐Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns

Using a variance decomposition of shocks to gross domestic product (GDP), we quantify the role of international factor income, international transfers, and saving in achieving risk‐sharing during the recent European crisis. We focus on the subperiods 1990–2007, 2008–2009, and 2010 and consider separately the European countries hit by the sovereign debt crisis in 2010. We decompose risk‐sharing from saving into contributions from government and private saving, and show that fiscal austerity programs played an important role in hindering risk‐sharing during the sovereign debt crisis.     

Inequality and Trade Policy: The Pro‐Poor Bias of Contemporary Trade Restrictions

This paper studies the pro‐poor bias of trade policy in India by estimating the household welfare effects of removing the current protection structure. The elimination of a pro‐poor trade policy is expected to have a negative differential welfare effect at the low end of the distribution. The paper first constructs trade restrictiveness indexes for household consumption items and industries using both tariffs and non‐tariff barriers. The results indicate that Indian trade policy is regressive through the expenditure channel as it disproportionately raises the cost of consumption for poorer households, while it is progressive through the earnings channel. Based on the net welfare effects, the elimination of the current trade protection structure is estimated to reduce inequality. These results indicate that a trade policy that is progressive through the earnings channel may induce a price effect that is regressive through the expenditure channel.     

河北省实施排污权交易的实践与反思——基于河北省满城县经验的探讨

排污权交易作为环境控制政策的手段之一,已成为备受关注的环境经济政策。河北省满城县进行了排污权交易的试点探索,在实践中存在不少问题和困惑,诸如：排污权性质、排污总量的确定、交易价格等都需要进一步研究和探讨。