Penalized h-likelihood approach for variable selection in AFT random-effect models

Survival models allowing for random effects (e.g., frailty models) have been widely used for analyzing clustered time-to-event data. Accelerated failure time (AFT) models with random effects are useful alternatives to frailty models. Because survival times are directly modeled, interpretation of the fixed and random effects is straightforward. Moreover, the fixed effect estimates are robust against various violations of the assumed model. In this paper, we propose a penalized h-likelihood (HL) procedure for variable selection of fixed effects in the AFT random-effect models. For the purpose of variable selection, we consider three penalty functions, namely, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD), and HL. We demonstrate via simulation studies that the proposed variable selection procedure is robust against the misspecification of the assumed model. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a bladder cancer clinical trial.     

Predicting monthly biofuel production using a hybrid ensemble forecasting methodology

This paper proposes a hybrid ensemble forecasting methodology that integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD), long short-term memory (LSTM) and extreme learning machine (ELM) for the monthly biofuel (a typical agriculture-related energy) production based on the principle of decomposition—reconstruction—ensemble. The proposed methodology involves four main steps: data decomposition via EMD, component reconstruction via a fine-to-coarse (FTC) method, individual prediction via LSTM and ELM algorithms, and ensemble prediction via a simple addition (ADD) method. For illustration and verification, the biofuel monthly production data of the USA is used as the our sample data, and the empirical results indicate that the proposed hybrid ensemble forecasting model statistically outperforms all considered benchmark models considered in terms of the forecasting accuracy. This indicates that the proposed hybrid ensemble forecasting methodology integrating the EMD-LSTM-ELM models based on the decomposition—reconstruction—ensemble principle has been proved to be a competitive model for the prediction of biofuel production.     

Predicting survival using disease history: a model combining relative survival and frailty

Information on disease history and comorbidity of patients can often be of great value to predict survival, for example in cancer research. In this paper a model is presented that accommodates such information by combining relative survival and frailty. Relative survival is used to model the excess risk of dying from recent concurrent diseases. Individual frailty allows estimation of a 'selection effect', which occurs if patients who have survived much hazard in the past are tougher and therefore tend to live longer than those who have survived less. Results are shown to be independent of the chosen family of frailty distributions if heterogeneity is small and to lead to a simple proportional excess hazards model. The model is applied to data from the Leiden University Medical Center on patients with head/neck tumors using information on previous tumors.     

The Cox–Aalen model for recurrent‐event data with a dependent terminal event

Recurrent events with a dependent terminal event arise frequently in a wide variety of fields. In this paper, we propose a new joint model to analyze these data and model the dependence between recurrent and terminal events through shared gamma frailty. Specifically, a Cox–Aalen rate frailty model is specified for the recurrent event, and an additive hazards frailty model is specified for the terminal event. An estimating equation approach is developed for the parameters in the joint model, and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators perform well with finite samples. An application to a medical cost study of chronic heart failure patients is illustrated.     

Proportional reversed hazard and frailty models

Reversed hazard rates are found to be very useful in survival analysis and reliability especially in study on parallel systems and in the analysis of left censored lifetime data. In this paper, we derive a class of bivariate distributions having marginal proportional reversed hazard rates. We, then, introduce a class of proportional reversed hazard rates frailty models and propose a multivariate correlated gamma frailty model. Bivariate reversed hazard rates and association measure are discussed in terms of frailty parameters.     

On the shape of the cross-ratio function in bivariate survival models induced by truncated and folded normal frailty distributions

In shared frailty models for bivariate survival data the frailty is identifiable through the cross-ratio function (CRF), which provides a convenient measure of association for correlated survival variables. The CRF may be used to compare patterns of dependence across models and data sets. We explore the shape of the CRF for the families of one-sided truncated normal and folded normal frailty distributions.     

Investigating design for survival models

The aim of this paper is to derive methodology for designing ‘time to event’ type experiments. In comparison to estimation, design aspects of ‘time to event’ experiments have received relatively little attention. We show that gains in efficiency of estimators of parameters and use of experimental material can be made using optimal design theory. The types of models considered include classical failure data and accelerated testing situations, and frailty models, each involving covariates which influence the outcome. The objective is to construct an optimal design based of the values of the covariates and associated model or indeed a candidate set of models. We consider D-optimality and create compound optimality criteria to derive optimal designs for multi-objective situations which, for example, focus on the number of failures as well as the estimation of parameters. The approach is motivated and demonstrated using common failure/survival models, for example, the Weibull distribution, product assessment and frailty models.     

Variance components models for survival data

Extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model for survival data are studied where allowance is made for unobserved heterogeneity and for correlation between the life times of several individuals. The extended models are frailty models inspired by Y ashin et al. (1995). Estimation is carried out using the EM algorithm. Inference is discussed and potential applications are outlined, in particular to statistical research in human genetics using twin data or adoption data, aimed at separating the effects of genetic and environmental factors on mortality.     

Stochastic comparisons of multivariate reversed frailty model

Multivariate frailty approaches are most commonly used to define distributions of random vectors, which represent lifetimes of individuals or components and stochastically compare them in terms of various multivariate orders. In this paper, we study a multivariate shared reversed frailty model and a general multivariate reversed frailty mixture model, and derive sufficient conditions for some of the stochastic orderings to hold among the random vectors. We also consider a particular case of a general multivariate mixture model in which the baseline distribution function is represented in terms of a copula and study stochastic comparisons (stochastic and lower orthant order) among the two random vectors.     

An optimisation method for complex product design

Designing a complex product such as an aircraft usually requires both qualitative and quantitative data and reasoning. To assist the design process, a critical issue is how to represent qualitative data and utilise it in the optimisation. In this study, a new method is proposed for the optimal design of complex products: to make the full use of available data, information and knowledge, qualitative reasoning is integrated into the optimisation process. The transformation and fusion of qualitative and qualitative data are achieved via the fuzzy sets theory and a cloud model. To shorten the design process, parallel computing is implemented to solve the formulated optimisation problems. A parallel adaptive hybrid algorithm (PAHA) has been proposed. The performance of the new algorithm has been verified by a comparison with the results from PAHA and two other existing algorithms. Further, PAHA has been applied to determine the shape parameters of an aircraft model for aerodynamic optimisation purpose.     

A novel LASSO – TLBO – SVR hybrid model for an efficient portfolio construction

In this study a LASSO – TLBO – SVR hybrid model is used for portfolio construction. Relevant economic parameters are determined and used for stock selection. Along with stock selection, weights for the stocks are obtained by solving a portfolio optimization problem using three methods: GRG Nonlinear, Evolutionary method based on Genetic Algorithm, and Equal weight method. The portfolio return in the proposed model is compared with the return of the Indian market portfolio (NSE and BSE). It is observed that the proposed model outperforms the market portfolio.     

Improved hybrid resampling and ensemble model for imbalance learning and credit evaluation

A clustering-based undersampling (CUS) and distance-based near-miss method are widely used in current imbalanced learning algorithms, but this method has certain drawbacks. In particular, the CUS does not consider the influence of the distance factor on the majority of instances, and the near-miss method omits the inter-class(es) within the majority of samples. To overcome these drawbacks, this study proposes an undersampling method combining distance measurement and majority class clustering. Resampling methods are used to develop an ensemble-based imbalanced-learning algorithm called the clustering and distance-based imbalance learning model (CDEILM). This algorithm combines distance-based undersampling, feature selection, and ensemble learning. In addition, a cluster size-based resampling (CSBR) method is proposed for preserving the original distribution of the majority class, and a hybrid imbalanced learning framework is constructed by fusing various types of resampling methods. The combination of CDEILM and CSBR can be considered as a specific case of this hybrid framework. The experimental results show that the CDEILM and CSBR methods can achieve better performance than the benchmark methods, and that the hybrid model provides the best results under most circumstances. Therefore, the proposed model can be used as an alternative imbalanced learning method under specific circumstances, e.g., for providing a solution to credit evaluation problems in financial applications.     

Listening to the patient voice: using a sentic computing model to evaluate physicians’ healthcare service quality for strategic planning in hospitals

Online physician reviews (OPRs), also known as electronic word of mouth, have become the primary source of information for patients while making health consultation decisions. However, different techniques to analyze these reviews by machines have not been frequently applied yet in this domain. In this study, a novel method for opinion mining is being proposed to fill the existing research gap, that is, a hybrid approach to sentic computing. This approach integrates artificial intelligence and semantic web techniques to implicitly analyze OPRs in order to evaluate patient perceptions of healthcare service quality. We develop our methodology by using the following three main tasks: (1) sentence-level topic spotting (a topic-analysis procedure) to extract major topics, (2) a sentic computing framework to perform concept-level sentiment analysis (polarity detection on the categorized sentences), and (3) root cause and strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analyses to identify SWOT for healthcare organizations. Analyses results of 47,499 OPRs from the UK-based website (Iwantgreatcare.org) show that the proposed hybrid approach has accurately classified concept words to their corresponding topics, and it has also outperformed the similar other methods of topic extraction in the healthcare domain. The results also indicate that the proposed approach can better contribute to the overall performance analyses for healthcare organizations, which could help practitioners in improving service-quality measures based on the real voices of patients. The proposed model also provides a theoretical basis for formulating quality measures for the healthcare sector.

     

Analysis of binary data with the possibility of wrong ascertainment

Most genetic studies recruit high‐risk families, and the discoveries are based on non‐random selected groups. We must consider the consequences of this ascertainment process to apply the results of genetic research to the general population. In addition, in epidemiological studies, binary responses are often misclassified. We proposed a binary logistic regression model that provides a novel and flexible way to correct for misclassification in binary responses, taking into account the ascertainment issues. A hierarchical Bayesian analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo method has been carried out to investigate the effect of covariates on disease status. The focus of this paper is to study the effect of classification errors and non‐random ascertainment on the estimates of the model parameters. An extensive simulation study indicated that the proposed model results in substantial improvement of the estimates. Two data sets have been revisited to illustrate the methodology.     

Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Spatiotemporal wind forecasting by learning a hierarchically sparse inverse covariance matrix using wind directions

Given the advances in online data acquisition systems, statistical learning models are increasingly used to forecast wind speed. In electricity markets, wind farm production forecasts are needed for the day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time markets. In this work, we use a spatiotemporal model that leverages wind dynamics to forecast wind speed. Using a priori knowledge of the wind direction, we propose a maximum likelihood estimate of the inverse covariance matrix regularized with a hierarchical sparsity-inducing penalty. The resulting inverse covariance estimate not only exhibits the benefits of a sparse estimator, but also enables meaningful sparse structures by considering wind direction. A proximal method is used to solve the underlying optimization problem. The proposed methodology is used to forecast six-hour-ahead wind speeds in 20-minute time intervals for a case study in Texas. We compare our method with a number of other statistical methods. Prediction performance measures and the Diebold–Mariano test show the potential of the proposed method, specifically when reasonably accurate estimates of the wind directions are available.     

两阶段法求解混装模式下的加热炉调度

针对目前加热炉调度模型少有考虑混装模式下加热炉调度优化的不足,建立了连铸一热轧混装一体化模式下的加热炉生产调度优化模型,并提出了基于贪婪算法和模拟退火算法的两阶段求解方法。生产数据测试表明该模型和算法能有效解决加热炉调度问题。     

Computing marginal likelihoods from a single MCMC output

In this article, we propose new Monte Carlo methods for computing a single marginal likelihood or several marginal likelihoods for the purpose of Bayesian model comparisons. The methods are motivated by Bayesian variable selection, in which the marginal likelihoods for all subset variable models are required to compute. The proposed estimates use only a single Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) output from the joint posterior distribution and it does not require the specific structure or the form of the MCMC sampling algorithm that is used to generate the MCMC sample to be known. The theoretical properties of the proposed method are examined in detail. The applicability and usefulness of the proposed method are demonstrated via ordinal data probit regression models. A real dataset involving ordinal outcomes is used to further illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Objective methods for graphical structural learning

Graphical models are used for expressing conditional independence relationships among variables by the means of graphs, whose structure is typically unknown and must be inferred by the data at hand. We propose a theoretically sound Objective Bayes procedure for graphical model selection. Our method is based on the Expected-Posterior Prior and on the Power-Expected-Posterior Prior. We use as input of the proposed methodology a default improper prior and suggest computationally efficient approximations of Bayes factors and posterior odds. In a variety of simulated scenarios with varying number of nodes and sample sizes, we show that our method is highly competitive with, or better than, current benchmarks. We also discuss an application to protein-signaling data, which wieldy confirms existing results in the scientific literature.