Determinants of Self-employment in China： Evidence from Cross-regional Data

This paper presents and tests a series of sources of regional variations in self‐employment rate in China in the 2000s, and illustrates that the stage of economic development is a major explanation for the variations of self‐employment rate across regions over the past decade. The negative relationship between the stage of economic development and self‐employment rate identified in the paper indicates that China has entered the process of fast industrialization, and self‐employment is playing a diminishing role in economic growth and employment. We also find a substitution effect between self‐employment and private enterprises. While both are important components of China's private sector, private enterprises are becoming an increasingly important source of China's economic growth and employment. Furthermore, our findings also imply that when job opportunities are limited, self‐employment in China is likely a forced choice of disadvantaged people who are not qualified for wage jobs.     

Rebalancing Growth in China：A Three-Handed Approach

I. Introduction On 21 July 2005 China began the process of rebalancing its economy. The new exchange rate rule will, over time, reduce the incentive to invest in the export sector. This is the right move for China because there are increasing signs that the economy has proceeded too far?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences into manufacturing for export markets, to the point that the country’s capital sto…     

Distribution and Permanent Cyclical Fluctuation of Growth in China

Combing the consumer utility function with technology choice and the firm＇s profit maximization function, this paper establishes a model, then basing on the firm＇s behavior in the capital marketing, the equilibrium can be reached. So the phenomenon of permanent cyclical fluctuation of growth can be presented in this model. The reason, basing on the model, is the inharmonious proportion that is distributed to the labor and investor. The empirical research in China proves the hypothesis. At last, economic policies for escaping from permanent cyclical fluctuation have been put forward.     

Home Market Effects of Foreign Trade in China＇s Manufacturing Sector： Analysis Using International Standard Industry Classification Panel Data

In this paper,we use 2002-2008 International Standard Industry Classification two-digit bilateral trade panel data for manufacturing industries in China and the OECD countries to test for the existence of home market effects.We find that significant home market effects exist in 8 out of 12 industries.These industries include the food,beverage and tobacco industry, wood products,the paper products and printing industry,chemical products,other nonmetallic mineral products,machinery and equipment,transport equipment,and miscellaneous products and waste resources recycling industry.Textile,clothing and leather manufacturing,oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing,rubber and plastics,and basic metals and fabricated metal products industries do not exhibit home market effects.Indeed, strong reverse home market effects occur for oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing and for the rubber and plastics industry.The empirical results reveal that certain industries benefit from new export opportunities due to the expansion of domestic demand in China.     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.     

Employment and Working Hour Effects of Minimum Wage Increase： Evidence from China

Using a difference-in-differences model, the present paper provides empirical evidence of minimum wage effects on employment and working hours in China. The results show that male employment is not affected by a minimum wage increase, although men ＂s working hours do increase. In contrast, female employment is more likely to be negatively affected by a minimum wage increase, while their working hours remain unchanged. This may lead to women being in a more disadvantaged position in the workforee, and adopting a monthly minimum wage may induce firms to extend men＇s working hours. Therefore, to better protect disadvantaged workers, we suggest that minimum wage regulation should focus on the target group of less-educated women, and that a unified minimum hourly wage needs to be set for both full-time and part-time workers. Meanwhile, the importance of human capital accumulation shouM be addressed in alleviating the negative effects of minimum wage increases.     

Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment： Evidence from Chinese Micro Data

This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2011, we find that quantity‐oriented and price‐based monetary policies have heterogeneous impacts on corporate investment behavior, but the influence of monetary policies is constrained by the liquidity, inventory, size and asset–liability ratio of a firm. Firms with higher liquidity, lower inventory level and lower asset–liability ratios are less sensitive to the impact from two kinds of monetary policies. The larger the size of the firm, the less it is subject to influence from quantity‐oriented monetary policy; it responds more to price‐based monetary policy. The policy implication is that the monetary authorities should pay attention to the importance of policy‐making based on the monetary demand of microeconomic entities.     

Conference News 30 Years of Economic Reforms in China： Retrospect and Outlook

The Association for Chinese Economic Studies Australia （ACESA） in conjunction with China and World Economy and some other research institutions will jointly organize the ACESA＇s 20th Annual Conference in Townsville, Australia, 10-11 July 2008.     

Monetary policy,capital regulation and bank risk-taking：Evidence from China

This paper investigates the monetary policy’s risk-taking channel in China’s banking sector and reveals how capital buffer affects this channel in both theoretical and empirical analyses. We find that well-capitalized banks undertake less risk than those under-capitalized, which is opposite to the empirical evidence from the US. After comparing previous related theories, we point out the pattern of risk-shifting effect in China is different from that in the US. Meanwhile, we provide more substantial comparison between different types of banks. First, in the face of falling interest rates, state-owned commercial banks will undertake more risk than others. Second, the deterring effect of capital on risk varies little between banks. Third, banks short of capital can significantly reduce their risk-taking by replenishing capital through several channels.     

Convergence Triggers in Africa: Evidence from Convergence Clubs and Panel Models

This paper investigates the formation of convergence clubs and examines the drivers of growth convergence in Africa by accounting for individual heterogenous effects and establishing transitional paths. We particularly employ the sophisticated log t test to identify underlying convergence clubs and use LSDVC as a benchmark model for analysing the drivers of convergence. We also apply the System Generalized method of moments (GMM) model for sensitivity purposes. Our results reveal four core convergence clubs; seemingly characterised by the measures of institutional stability with distinct transitional paths. We consequently highlight the importance of initial conditions, human capital and institutions in the formation of convergence clubs. Thus, the paper provides insights into the adoption of differentiated development policies consistent with the specific conditions of African countries with the integration agenda driven by accelerated levels of human capital development and technological progress.     

经济集聚与经济增长——基于中国城市数据的实证分析

新经济地理学已经成为主流经济学中的一个新的亮点，有大量文献从理论和实证两方面针对经济积聚的原因及其对经济增长的影响展开了分析，然而基于中国数据的实证分析并不多。本文基于中国城市的面板数据实证检验了经济集聚对于城市人均实际GDP的影响，结果发现，如果不考虑经济集聚的内生性问题，会得到向下偏误的结果。本文运用工具变量法的回归结果表明：经济集聚具有内生性，它对于城市经济增长具有显著的促进作用。     

Opening up,Market Reform,and Convergence Clubs in China*

This paper evaluates the relationship between initial government policies and the emergence of convergence clubs in post‐reform China. We test the structural stability of a global convergence equation using China's provincial data over the period 1985–2000. We find that the provinces cluster around two basins of attraction defined by initial opening‐up. Domestic market reform exerts a positive and significant influence on provincial economic growth but has no threshold effect. The two convergence clubs exhibit strikingly different growth behaviors, suggesting that the roles of some growth‐promoting factors, such as human capital and infrastructure, depend on whether an openness threshold is passed.     

FDI、国内资本与经济增长——1987-2001年中国省际面板数据的证据

本文基于1987-2001年中国省际面板数据,运用固定效应和随机效应分析进行实证研究发现:FDI作为“投资”本身对经济增长的直接作用并不显著,但它通过促进全要素生产率的提升和“挤入”国内自身的投资,从而间接地对经济增长产生了积极作用;国有部门在全社会固定投资中占居主导地位,它对经济增长的直接促进作用是显著的,但对全要素生产率并无明显作用;私人部门投资对经济增长没有直接促进作用,对全要素生产率也无显著影响。因而,相对于国内资本来说,FDI对中国经济增长的作用具有“催化剂”的性质。     

The Convergence Hypothesis: History,Theory, and Evidence

The hypothesis that per capita output converges across economies over time represents one of the oldest controversies in economics. This essay surveys the history and development of the hypothesis, focusing particularly on its vast literature since the mid-1980s. A summary of empirical analyses, econometric issues, and various tests of the convergence hypothesis are also presented. Moreover, the essay analyzes the implications of the hypothesis for economic growth, especially as it relates to underdeveloped economies.     

河南省区域经济发展差异及收敛性分析

文章运用区域经济增长收敛理论,在研究河南省各市(地)经济发展差异性的基础上,得出河南省区域经济发展存在着三种不同的收敛俱乐部:郑州和洛阳;商丘、信阳、周口和驻马店以及河南省其他市(地);结合产业集聚理论和增长极理论对其成因进行了分析,并提出了相关的对策建议.     

长三角地区县域经济发展差异及其动态收敛研究

文章以长三角地区60个县（不包括区）1998—2009年间的人均GDP数据为基础,首先采用标准差系数和锡尔系数分析该地区内县域经济发展差异水平现状,然后根据经济增长收敛理论进一步对其动态收敛趋势进行实证分析。研究结果表明,长三角地区县域经济差异在1998—2009年间逐渐增大,并且基本不存在动态收敛的趋势,仅部分地区内县域经济存在俱乐部收敛。根据研究结果提出了初步的政策建议。     

中国区域经济增长及其收敛性:空间面板数据分析

本文运用空间面板数据分析方法考察中国区域经济增长和收敛性问题。首先介绍了空间固定效应模型的设定和经济意义，并概要说明了面板数据模型的空间相关性检验、模型选择和估计等问题。在此基础上，使用空间固定效应模型对1985-2004年中国省级区域经济增长及其收敛性进行了实证分析。发现条件收敛是非常可靠的经验结论，同时验证了增长过程中区域外溢显著存在。最后概括了主要研究结论和促进区域经济协调发展的政策含义。     

FDI在中国的技术外溢效应:基于面板数据的考察

通过使用1994～2006年的中国省际面板数据,分析了FDI对中国的技术外溢效应,并进一步实证考察了人力资本在FDI技术外溢中所起的作用。结果表明,缺乏经验证据支持FDI的正向技术外溢效应,但发现人力资本有利于促进FDI技术外溢效应作用的发挥。因此,在吸引外商直接投资的同时,要进一步思考如何有效利用和发挥其外溢效应,注重与国内的技术和人力资本的积累相结合,挖掘各区域对FDI技术外溢效应的吸收能力,弥合区域间发展的不平衡。