隐喻的认知层面和文化层面

隐喻作为一种修辞手段,实际上已经超越了纯语言的范畴。本文讨论了隐喻的概念、功能及其理解的途径。认为隐喻意义的推断取决于知识结构,认知及文化模式等诸多因素。     

防范和化解地方财政风险的理性思考

在社会主义市场经济条件下，经济领域的各种公共风险最终可能转化为财政风险。财政作为综合经济的反映，直接关系到国民经济的持续、快速、健康发展，关系到社会稳定；财政风险越大，说明社会经济生活中存在的公共风险越多，国家机器正常运转遭受损害的可能性越大。因此，财政风险不是财政部门本身的风险，而是政府的风险；防范和化解地方财政风险，保证财政经济的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。     

全面贯彻执行积极财政和适度从紧的财政政策

１９９９年为了进一步化解金融危机的影响,中央决定继续实行积极的财政政策。中央明确指出,作为地方省份,除要认真贯彻中央的财政政策,还要坚持适度从紧的原则,做好增收节支工作,为实现全国的经济财政目标作出应有的贡献。如何正确认识和兼施并用积极财政和适度从紧的财政政策？本文作者从四个方面对此做了论述,对指导福建财政工作有较高参考价值。     

我国房地产周期波动与经济周期的实证分析(1979-2008)

改革开放三十年来,我国房地产业总的发展趋势是持续快速增长,但是通过研究表明也存在着有规律的波动。由于地产业在国民经济发展中的基础性、先导性以及高相关性等特征,特别是经历了三十年发展的今天,对房地产行业周期波动研究的意义就尤为重要。文章采用增长率直接法、H-P滤波法分析了我国房地产业的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动。研究结果表明,自1978年以来,我国房地产业经历了九次短周期波动、二次中周期波动。     

FDI流量变化与世界经济周期的相关性分析

经济周期影响一切经济活动，以跨国公司为主体的FDI也必然受经济周期的影响。本文以实证方式利用世界FDI和世界GDP增长率的历史数据分析了FDI与经济周期的相关性，并作了相应解释。     

行业生命周期、企业生命周期与混合并购绩效的实证研究

以沪深两市发生混合并购的上市公司为对象,分析样本企业所在的行业生命周期与企业生命周期处于不同组合状态时,混合并购绩效的差异,以探寻适合混合并购发生的外在条件与内在时机。首先,将样本企业所在的行业生命周期和企业生命周期分为成长、成熟、衰退三个阶段,据此将样本企业按其所处的"行业-企业"生命周期的不同组合状态分为九组;其次,以独立样本t检验法和多元线性回归法,研究在九种不同组合状态下,样本企业混合并购绩效的差异。本文的结论为:企业处于"行业衰退-企业衰退"生命周期组合状态时,混合并购后绩效得到显著改善;而无论行业生命周期处于何种阶段,成长期企业实施混合并购均不利于绩效改善。     

Inventories and the Business Cycle*

This paper examines the relationship between the inventory cy and the business cycle using both macroeconomic and survey da It is argued that over the past decade and a half, the changes inventory management have reduced the amplitude of the inventc cycle. The paper also argues that the behaviour of inventories consistent with demand shocks being an important source of business cycle fluctuations.     

Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle

This paper documents empirical regularities in the foreign aid flows to developing countries over three decades. In spite of a large body of literature on foreign aid and its impact on recipients, surprisingly little is known about its business cycle characteristics. The authors show that for the vast majority of African recipients, aid flows are a major source of income that is highly volatile and, most importantly, overwhelmingly procyclical. For recipients outside of Africa, there is a similar—if somewhat less pronounced—pattern of aid procyclicality. In contrast, there is little evidence of aid procyclicality with the business cycle of donors. In light of the very high volatility of output in developing countries, the procyclicality of foreign aid flows from the recipients' perspective raises serious questions related to their welfare and growth.     

International Trade and the Business Cycle

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balance in G-7 countries.     

Further on the Nature of the Australian Business Cycle

Strong and Tan (1991) found Australian output variation was well characterized by a stochastic trend implying output shocks have a permanent effect on the level of activity. The paper finds that in Australia the stochastic trend alternative is statistically dominated when the data are allowed to be characterized by a probabilistic segmented trend specification. This finding implies shocks will only have a permanent effect on output when the series' growth path switches from one growth regime into another as a result of the shock.     

Empirical Evidence on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

The Austrian business cycle theory suggests that a monetary shock disturbs relative prices, such as the term structure of interest rates, systematically altering profit rates across economic sectors. Resource use responds to those changes, generating a cyclical pattern of real income. The divergence of the interest rate structure, from the previous and unchanged time preferences, means that the expansion is unsustainable and must end in recession. Quarterly data for eight U.S. business cycles, 1950:1 through 1991:1 are standardized by time period and used to explore business cycle facts and relations between money, interest rates, capacity utilization and income. Results are consistent with the hypotheses of the Austrian theory of a business cycle caused by a monetary shock and propagated by relative price changes.     

产业集群演化与生命周期研究述评

国内外学者关于产业集群生命周期的研究讨论了产业集群成长的周期性波动,描绘了产业集群从低级到高级演化的过程,多是从连续性的演化发展着手,忽视了其演化路径的中断和逆转。我国产业集群处于形成阶段和成长早期,应根据产业集群发展阶段制定针对性政策,防止集群衰落。