Foresight with Delphi Surveys in Japan

Foresight activities are conducted in many countries, but the Japanese were the most active in this field for many years. Most of their activities are based on the Delphi methodology. They published their first Delphi study in 1971 and repeated studies every five years. There is more knowledge available on more than 30 years of foresight with the Delphi approach in Japan. This provides an excellent opportunity to examine the established foresight system with the use of some examples. The forecast of the fax machine as an example of success, and the earthquake warning as a failure are illustrated in more detail, and the question is raised why—in spite of this mixed picture—foresight with the Delphi method is regarded as useful in Japan.     

The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question

There is an extensive literature on the urbanization process looking at both urbanization and urban concentration, asking whether and when there is under or over-urbanization or under or over urban concentration. Writers argue that national government policies and non-democratic institutions promote excessive concentration—the extent to which the urban population of a country is concentrated in one or two major metropolitan areas—except in former planned economies where migration restrictions are enforced. These literatures assume that there is an optimal level of urbanization or an optimal level of urban concentration, but no research to date has quantitatively examined the assumption and asked the basic “so-what” question—how great are the economic losses from significant deviations from any optimal degrees of urban concentration or rates of urbanization? This paper shows that (1) there is a best degree of urban concentration, in terms of maximizing productivity growth (2) that best degree varies with the level of development and country size, and (3) over or under-concentration can be very costly in terms of productivity growth. The paper shows also that productivity growth is not strongly affected by urbanization per se. Rapid urbanization has often occurred in the face of low or negative economic growth over some decades. Moreover, urbanization is a transitory phenomenon where many countries are now fully urbanized.     

Future generations and economic activities: The case of the social discount rate

The objective of this article is to show the difficulties economists have when they try to answer the following question: What can economists do to promote a fair and “safe” economic development? Or otherwise said: what should we do to promote more equity between generations in an environmental perspective? The purpose of this article is not to develop new tools or policies but to give an overview of some theoretical and practical problems linked to the connection between environment, intergenerational justice and economic activities. The first section focuses on the reasons for the need to develop a reflection about intergenerational equity in the economics of the environment. The second section investigates some related theoretical problems, and the third section shows the practical difficulties economists have when dealing with intertemporal economic decisions; that is, trying to take intergenerational equity into account—in particular the choice of a discount rate for public investments.     

Mismatch between Material Deprivation and Income Poverty: The Case of Turkey

By employing cross-sectional data obtained from Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the years from 2007 to 2011, we analyze the identification problem of the poor by using both monetary and non-monetary measures. We classify the poor into the following categories: (i) poor in monetary and nonmonetary measures, (ii) poor in monetary measure only, (iii) poor in non-monetary measure only, and (iv) non-poor in both categories. We examine the determinants of each category by utilizing the probit model and find that the share of workers in adults — or the share of informal or agricultural workers — creates some disparities between poverty at a country and regional level.     

Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization

With the public finances of many developing and emerging market countries still heavily dependent on trade tax revenues, further trade liberalization may be hindered unless they are able to develop alternative sources of revenue. Against a background of, and to inform, heightened theoretical controversy as to the appropriate balance between trade and other taxes (not least the VAT), this paper uses panel data for 117 countries over 32 years—cleaned for a variety of problems in standard data sources—to address a central question of fact: Have countries recovered from domestic taxes the revenues they have lost from past episodes of trade liberalization? For high income countries, the answer is clearly ‘yes.’ For middle income countries, there are robust signs of strong replacement both concurrently with the revenue loss and—essentially dollar-for-dollar—in the long run. Signs of significant recovery by low income countries are flimsier, however, and their experiences appear to have varied widely. The picture that emerges for low income countries is thus that replacement has been (and become) higher than previous studies have suggested, but sufficiently incomplete in many cases to give cause for concern.     

Inflation and real sectoral output shares: Dynamic panel model evidence from seven OECD countries

Models of the cost of inflation often conclude that inflation misallocates resources. For example, inflation may lead to an increase in the variability of relative prices and it is often claimed that this increase in variability leads to a misallocation of resources. This claim raises the following empirical question, does inflation alter the composition of real output; that is, does it change real output shares? We examine this question using dynamic panel data methods for nine sector panels each with seven OECD countries from 1970 to 2005. We find evidence that inflation changes the real shares of some sectors even when inflation is treated as endogenous.     

Role of government in trade and investment boom: lessons from East Asia

This paper extends the empirical analysis on Rodrik’s (1995a) domestic investment‐led export growth model for East Asia to nine East Asian countries for a longer time period, 1960 through 2004, and tests whether openness Granger‐caused investment or vice versa. Our results suggest that there can be no single conclusion about the role of investment in East Asia. Causality has also changed for some countries in different time periods. We question the exogeneity of the investment boom in East Asia, a key assumption made by Rodrik. Government’s incentives encouraged investment in export industries through different channels.     

基于跨案例研究的颠覆性技术演进特征分析

在梳理前人研究成果的基础上，得到颠覆性技术演进的14个特征范畴，从低端颠覆和高端颠覆视角选取电动自行车等4项不同类型颠覆性技术演进特征进行跨案例分析，遵循复制法对特征范畴进行反复修正、补充与融合，分别得到12个低端颠覆性技术演进特征和13个高端颠覆性技术演进特征，并据此构建全过程视角下颠覆性技术特征模型。通过对两种颠覆性技术演进特征进行对比分析，总结出在创造性、异轨性和迭代性上的特征共性，以及在价值主张、价值路线和价值检验上的特征差异。     

A Meta-study Investigating the Sources of Protest Behaviour in Stated Preference Surveys

It is a well-known empirical finding that some percentage of respondents participating in Stated Preference surveys will not give responses that reflect their true preferences. One reason is protest behaviour. If the distribution of protest responses is not independent of respondent or survey characteristics, then simply expelling protesters from surveys can lead to sample selection bias. Furthermore, WTP estimates will not be comparable across surveys. This paper seeks to explore potential causes of protest behaviour through a meta-study based on full datasets from 38 different surveys. The objective of the study is to examine the effect of respondent specific variables as well as survey specific variables on protest behaviour. Our results suggest that some of the differences in WTP typically observed between different demographic groups, different elicitation formats and different question formats might actually be attributed to inherent differences in the propensity to protest. Our results indicate that the propensity for respondents to exhibit protest behaviour when asked a stated preference type valuation question depends on a number of specific factors, respondent specific as well as survey specific—knowledge which could be used in order to reduce protest behaviour.     

Does income inequality really matter for credit booms?

This paper addresses the question whether income inequality is associated with credit booms, alongside other macroeconomic factors. We distinguish between the different types of credit booms—real estate credit booms, household credit booms, firm credit booms and credit booms that turn into crises. Furthermore, our analysis of a sample of 70 countries between 1990 and 2016 does not provide any evidence of credit booms driving income inequality. We observe that capital inflows increase the likelihood of credit boom occurrence, while countries experiencing high economic growth tend to have more credit booms. Finally, we note that credit booms are more frequent in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes.     

The impact of redistributive policies on inequality in OECD countries

Due to behavioural effects triggered by redistributional interventions, it is still an open question whether government policies are able to effectively reduce income inequality. We contribute to this research question by using different country-level data sources to study inequality trends in OECD countries since 1980. We first investigate the development of inequality over time before analysing the question of whether governments can effectively reduce inequality. Different identification strategies, using fixed effects and instrumental variables models, provide some evidence that governments are capable of reducing income inequality despite countervailing behavioural responses. The effect is stronger for social expenditure policies than for progressive taxation.     

Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries

In economic development, aggregate economic growth is accompanied by structural change among the three main sectors of an economy. Nevertheless, the question whether economic growth causes structural change, or changes in the economic structure cause aggregate growth is still unanswered. To shed more light on this question, this article examines a Granger causality test in a panel environment to determine the relationship of economic growth and structural change, measured either in terms of employment shares or real value added shares. Estimation and analysis of the annual data of seven OECD countries, covering the period from 1960?C2004, show that although the causality appears to be heterogeneous among these countries, some general conclusions can be drawn. Aggregate economic growth decelerates structural change in the very short run but accelerates it with some lag in time. The aggregate effect depends on whether structural change is measured in terms of employment or in terms of real value added. Conversely, structural change supports aggregate economic growth, irrespective of which measure of structural change chosen.     

Capital Mobility, Agglomeration and Corporate Tax Rates: Is the Race to the Bottom for Real?

Based on a data set for 19 OECD countries for the period 1981–2001,we estimate the impact of FDI on corporate tax rates, wherechanges in FDI are a measure for changes in capital mobility.So far the literature has been concerned with the related butrather different question as to the sensitivity of FDI to taxrates. Our article takes an opposite perspective and asks whatthe impact of capital mobility is on corporate tax rates. Indoing so, we explicitly take the role of agglomeration intoaccount. In theory, core countries can afford a higher tax ratecompared to peripheral countries. In our estimation strategy,we instrument capital mobility to deal with reverse causality.The main conclusion is that increased international capitalmobility, measured by FDI flows, implies a lower corporate taxrate. But we also find that agglomeration matters: core countrieshave a higher corporate tax rate than peripheral countries.If there is a race to the bottom, it seems that it is more realfor some countries than others. (JEL code: H25)     

A Strategic Analysis of Eutrophication Abatement in the Baltic Sea

Cooperation between the littoral countries of the Baltic Sea to mitigate eutrophication has proven difficult in the past. In this study, we explore the countries’ incentives to free-ride on agreements, find stable coalitions where free-riding is deterred, and propose alternative ways of designing stable agreements that would reduce eutrophication in the sea. We conclude that strong free-riding incentives for some countries preclude the socially optimal solution in the absence of an enforcing authority. A stable agreement can, however, be formed with some loss in efficiency. The research shows that a treaty with modest abatement targets between all the littoral countries would be more efficient than a coalition between fewer countries but with more ambitious targets. We compare the two international institutions involved in the protection of the Baltic Sea—the intergovernmental Helsinki Commission and the partly supranational European Union—and show that the European Union would not benefit from enforcing an agreement among its member states on the Baltic without Russia being involved in the conservation efforts. Our results suggest that efficient abatement and full participation could be achieved by using the power the European Union has to enforce such an agreement among its members and, simultaneously, negotiating with Russia within the Helsinki Commission.     

薪酬满意的前因研究:基于多维度本质下的效应相对性

从薪酬体系的全面价值感知出发,遴选了薪酬的4种意义(即绝对意义、相对意义、控制意义、匹配意义)范畴下的前因,并提出基于"外向-内向"、"内容-过程"与"个体-体系"的分析框架,探究了薪酬满意的各前因变量影响薪酬满意各维度的效应相对性。实证研究结果支持了薪酬满意在本质上是多维度的,证实了并非所有前因在影响薪酬满意各维度时是"等同"有用的,揭示了薪酬的不同意义(价值)对薪酬满意不同维度具有不同程度的影响效应,所遴选的前因变量解释了薪酬满意各维度的绝大部分变异。     

国内市场运行效率的互联网驱动* ——计量模型与案例调研的双重验证

本文从宏观和中观两个层面考察互联网对国内市场运行的影响，围绕市场整合和行业运行两个效率评判维度进行机制分析，并综合运用面板数据模型和多案例分析方法加以考察验证。研究结果表明：互联网因素对于国内市场运行的影响存在着不同范畴的结构差异，互联网发展倾向于增进流通业效率而可能妨碍统一市场，未来应理性认识互联网对于国内市场运行的真实驱动，着重利用互联网技术优化商流运行和提高流通业效率，同时也要重视线下交易制度和实体型交易关系对于推进国内统一市场的实质性作用，避免因忽视实体流通业发展和混淆互联网驱动而加剧国内市场分割。     

A Kaleckian Perspective on Financialisation and Distribution in Three Main Eurozone Countries before and after the Crisis: France,Germany and Spain

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we examine if, and to what extent, a general Kaleckian analysis of the potential effects of financialisation on income shares in advanced capitalist economies is of relevance for the three Eurozone countries under investigation—France, Germany and Spain—in the period before the recent financial and economic crisis. Second, we study changes in the financialisation–distribution nexus that have occurred in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis. We find that the countries examined here have shown broad similarities regarding redistribution before the crisis, although there are some differences in the underlying determinants. These differences have continued during the period after the crisis and have led to different results in the development of distribution since then.     

The International Financial Architecture and the Limits to Neoliberal Hegemony

During the 1990s in many western countries employment decreased or at least stagnated and unemployment increased. One of the few countries where the reverse happened is the Netherlands. Harmonious relations and cooperation between capital and labour, particularly the exchange of wage moderation for jobs, are seen as the secret of its success and often viewed as a model in other European countries. One of the reasons for this is that the Dutch have not paid the price of an Anglo-Saxon poverty rate for employment growth. Despite some cuts, their comprehensive welfare system still has relatively high replacement rates. We will, however, see that the Dutch development is not as model-like as it superficially appears. Labour market participation is not particularly high and, consequently, non-employment—including a very large number of people on disability, early pension or social assistance schemes—is high. In fact, at least up to 1996/97, it had changed very little since the mid 1980s. Therefore, it is only in the very recent past that the rise of employment has been accompanied by a decline in non-employment.     

Five Examination Answers for Schools: Microeconomics

This article follows a similar format to my contribution on five sample answers on macroeconomics, published in the 3rd quarter I992 issue of this journal. The aim is again to present essays written under pressure, as if an Australian teenager with a good command of the subject had written them. The positive response to the first set of essays suggests there may be value in this approach. As before, I have supplemented my draft with footnote after-thoughts to explain my strategy and some of the temptations I have sought to avoid. Very often it is important to stop a particular line of argument, or the detail or definition of something, to prevent the essay getting out of balance or straying into what an examiner may brand as 'trivia'. at least in the sense of the question asked. This time I have also added some extended comments on the overall approach to each question. I have avoided diagrams and data that I would normally use in an academic writing as such. This is mainly because a student would not have the data in the exam room and because a good answer can explain a diagram in the mind without actually drawing it. Sometimes the question is already structured for you: write notes on each of the following six things, for instance. This can be deceptive, for there will sometimes be a requirement to relate the concepts to each other, or to some defined context. (Eg 'In relation to the Australian economy…') I have selected five essays that cover different parts of microeconomics and tried to answer in different styles. Some questions call for a good understanding of the principles involved, and if you knew nothing of Australia's situation it would hardly matter. Others call for that knowledge of our industries, their operations and policy aspects bearing on them. As before I consulted no references or data, and some of my recollection may be imperject. I recall someone saying that if you read anything from anyone who has been through Economics at Cambridge, all the best bits are to be found in the footnotes. That may well be true here.     

An analysis of differing abatement incentives

In general, climate policies are evaluated with respect to their costs and benefits. But regularly an important category of benefits is omitted: ancillary or secondary benefits. In contrast to the main strand of literature on climate change the study presented here will analyze countries’ decisions on greenhouse gas abatement in an impure public good model which considers ancillary benefits. As can be shown by integrating ancillary benefits into the analysis, environmental regulations independent of the climate problem may well have an effect on countries’ greenhouse gas control. Consequently, different environmental programs should be coordinated carefully and should not be considered as being independent.