UNDERINVESTMENT AND TIMBER RIGHTS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE EARLY TASMANIAN AND VICTORIAN TIMBER INDUSTRIES*

This paper distinguishes between the hypothesis that the Victorian government developed a reputation for easy renewal of timber rights, so that the lack of clearly defined site sizes and the short-term nature of these rights did not matter, and the hypothesis that tenure and site size as written in law was the major determinant. A model of a firm's investment choice when there is uncertain tenure is developed to examine the effect of changes in the tenure prospect on capital intensity. The predictions of this model are then used to assess the competing hypotheses with reference to data on capital labour ratios and legislation regarding tenure and site size laws in Victoria and Tasmania from 1890 to 1927.     

CANADA'S FUTURE ROLE IN THE WORLD WHEAT MARKET*

Many indicators point to increasing surpluses in the world wheat market. This study presents evidence of this trend by examining the present and projected 1975 levels of import demand and export supply for wheat in the major wheat importing and exporting countries. Domestic policies which directly or indirectly affect the level of wheat trade are also taken into account.
The implications for Canada resulting from these developments are indicated in terms of its anticipated level of exports, required wheat acreage adjustments and indirect effects to other sectors of the Canadian economy.
LA PARTICIPATION DU CANADA SUR LE MARCHÉ INTERNATIONAL DU BLÉ - Plusieurs changements indiquent une augmentation dans le surplus de blé sur le marché international. Cette étude présente une indication de cette tendance en examinant le nrveau actuel et celui de 1975 de la demande d'importation et l'offre d'exportations dans les principaux pays qui importent et exponent le blé. La politique intérieure qui touche directement ou indirectement le commerce du blé est aussi considérée.
L'implication du Canada est exprimée en fonction du niveau d'exportation anticipé, un ajustement dans la superfine et l'influence apportée aux autres secteurs de l'économie canadienne.     

FORECASTING SAWNTIMBER CONSUMPTION: THE APPLICATION OF AN END-USE MODEL*

A multi-equation end-use model is used to analyse the consumption of sawn-timber in Australia. The forecasting ability of the model is evaluated. Simulations of the model are reported and implications for policy are discussed.     

FORECASTING FOR AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE

The paper provides a review of the objectives of forecasts and of the techniques for generating forecasts in the context of agriculture. Forecasts provide information to facilitate decision making. The techniques are evaluated in terms of assumptions about the processes generating the forecast variables, their relative requirements for time, data and other resources, and their relative forecast accuracy. An evaluation of naive, informal model and econometric model forecasts of Australian agricultural commodity prices and production levels is reported.     

THE DEMAND FOR DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED SAWN TIMBER: AN APPLICATION OF THE DIEWERT COST FUNCTION

The Australian demand for domestically-produced sawn timber is investigated by considering its major use — as an input into residential construction. Using a cost function approach, a system of equations is derived expressing quantities demanded in terms of relative prices. Cross-price elasticities are estimated and the falling input-output ratio of timber in residential construction is analysed by decomposing the change in this ratio into price, outputs and taste/technology effects. A major finding is that, while substitution of timber for other inputs has been encouraged through relative price movements, this effect has been more than offset by taste and technology trends away from timber usage.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN OECD COUNTRIES: AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE

Market disequilibria, the economic costs involved and the resulting international tensions have led to a political agreement on the need to reform agricultural policies in the direction of market orientation. However, progress has been limited so far. The present period is decisive in requiring the concrete implementation of the agreed reform principles, through a combination of domestic and international actions. In this process of reform, agriculture will be faced with new issues, reflecting the overall structural adjustment of economies and their growing internationalisation.     

A WHEAT POLICY FOR THE SEVENTIES*

A study of the origins of the wheat surplus problem in Australia suggests that more far-reaching adjustments in national wheat policy are required than those currently envisaged. Ten specific recommendations for the reform of the present policy are outlined. A new form of income stabilisation scheme is proposed.     

FORECASTING MILK OUTPUT IN ENGLAND AND WALES*

This paper evaluates the ablility of an autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) model to forecast monthly milk output before and after the imposition of quotas in April 1984. In the post quota period the standard arima model is modified to a ‘discontinuity’ model allowing the quota to be represented explicitly. It is concluded that for a medium term forecast this is preferable to the standard arima model, whilst for one period ahead forecasts the models are equally good.     

A FURTHER STUDY IN THE DEMAND FOR FATSTOCK*

This paper has been prepared in an attempt to interpret some of the price-supply complexities in the Pork, Beef and Bacon markets. Previous writers have tackled the subject working out price flexibilities on a three monthly, half-yearly or annual basis. It appeared that the price-supply relationships could, with advantage, be examined on a monthly basis-the statistical significance of the results would not be as high as with previous work, but it was felt that the contribution would be worthwhile so long as the conclusions were supported by circumstantial evidence. The pork market has been examined in detail and evidence found suggesting that during the period 1955 to 1965 there have been two shifts in the demand curve, both appearing to result from a coincidence of a period of high pig numbers with one of low beef supply. The beef analysis did not reveal anything of note in the way of shifts in the demand curve, but there was a very marked seasonal pattern of prices in the period 1955 to 1960 with some of the months of high prices having a temptingly low price flexibility suggesting scope for profitable expansion of supplies during these months. The main months when this occurred were after the peak period of fattening stock from yards and before grass fed stock come on the market. Supplies have increased rapidly in this period and moved away from the last three months of the year when price flexibility was large and prices relatively low. The bacon analysis has been done at the wholesale level rather than at the farm gate. Price flexibilities are high and in practically every month of the year expansion in supply results in a decrease in total value of sales. Unless a change in demand can be brought about there would appear to be little scope in expanding total supplies of bacon. The best course for the home producer would appear to be to attempt to expand the U.K. share of the market.     

当前粮食状况与今后任务

粮食是关系国计民生的重要商品,一直为世人所关注。我国自1984年和1996年粮食总产分别突破八千亿斤和一万亿斤大关后,长期被粮食困扰的中国人从心底感到轻松,“吃饭的问题终于解决了”,“调整农业结构、发展经济有基础了”,“深化粮食流通体制改革有条件了”……确实,上下都腾出了精力抓经济、搞城建,用不着“全党动手,大办粮食”。然而,在不经意中,全国粮食连续四年减产,总产量回到上世纪90年代初水平,人均占有量回到80年代初水平。但社会上没有粮食短缺的迹象,十多年来粮食多得卖不出的观点仍然占据在人们脑海中,市场仍然稳定。这是因为,…     

THE FUTURE OF MILK MARKETING

Current pressures for change to the Milk Marketing Scheme arise from the difficulties of reconciling the activities of the Milk Marketing Boards and the private dairy companies in the United Kingdom with the common organisation of the European Community's milk market. Community legislation to achieve this in 1978 (Regulations (EEC) 1421/78 and 1422/78) has come under increasing attack. The paper discusses the challenges by producer-retailers and contract processors, the returns from liquid and manufacturing milk, the problems of pricing in the EC framework and current proposals for changing both pricing arrangements and the form of the producers' organisation itself.     

THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

This paper evaluates the economic worth of forestry projects in the United Kingdom by using two different public sector investment appraisal criteria; the traditional discounted cash flows and the recently-established sum of discounted consumption flows. In the latter, in view of the intergenerational distribution aspect of government projects, the conventional rules are modified, enabling the decision-maker to treat all generations, present and future, in an equitable manner. Forestry is an excellent example to highlight the issue that many public sector investment projects re-distribute income between generations. Its long gestation periods make it obvious that there is more than one generation involved in the venture. In this analysis a one hectare plantation of Sitka spruce, class 20, is considered for a single 50-year rotation. Three different interest rates, 10 per cent test rate of discount, 5 per cent required rate of return, and 3 per cent forestry target rate are used under 4 different assumptions regarding the future price of timber.     

THE DEMAND FOR LDC EXPORTS OF PRIMARY COMMODITIES: THE CASE OF THE PHILIPPINES*

The economic case for taxing exports rests on the elasticity of demand for the exports concerned, but the true values of these elasticities are controversial. The international demand for Philippine exports of coconut products is examined in this paper. The hypothesis that the Philippines is a 'small country' exporter of coconut products is rejected using the specification of a price-normalised demand equation and the implications of this finding are discussed.     

METHODS OF ASSESSING AGRICULTURAL DEMAND FOR WATER IN THE PRAIRIES*

It is vital that policy makers have good evluations of society's needs for water development and regulations. However, in order to make valid normative assessments, there must first be more adequate forecasts of attainable water use patterns. Conditional forecasting is suggested as being most appropriate. In this paper an outline of factors affecting agricultural water use is provided. A discussion is given of three approachs to conditional forecasting: extrapolation of production requirements, fitting production functions by regression, and programming. Advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed with attention to methodological details. Precautions are outlined for aggregation procedures and the evaluation of results. Recommendations are made on some basic issues affecting water researchers, and an attempt is made to identify iterhs needing priority attention. II est, essentiel que les planificateurs s'occupant de ?aménagement el de la règlementation d, es eaux aient unc bonne évaluation des besoins de la société. Cependant, afin de produire des évaluations valables nous devons avant tout oblenir des prévisions adèquales des systèmes accessibles de ?ulilisation des eaux. Les prévisions conditioners sont suggéreés comme étant les plus appropriées. Dans cetie étude, nous fournisons les données générates sur les différents facteurs affectant Ǐulilisation des eaux en agriculture. Ensuite, nous donnons une discussion de trois méthodes sur la calculation des pronostics condilionnels, lesquelles sont ?extrapolation des exigences de la production par régression el la programmation. Les avantages el désavantages de chaque méthode sont discutées avec attention aux détails méthodologiques. Des mises en garde sont données sur les procéd is ?assemblages el de ?évaluation des résultats. De plus, des recommandalions sont faites sur des issues fondamenlales qui affectent les chercheurs dans le domaine de ǐutilisation des eaux et un effort est fourni afin ?identifier les details demandant une attention prioritaire.