Great expectations: Past wages and unemployment durations

Decomposing wages into worker and firm wage components, we find that firm-fixed components are sizeable parts of workers' wages. If workers can only imperfectly observe the extent of firm-fixed components in their wages, they might be misled about the overall wage distribution. Such misperceptions may lead to unjustified high reservation wages, resulting in overly long unemployment durations. We examine the influence of previous wages on unemployment durations for workers after exogenous lay-offs and, using Austrian administrative data, we find that younger workers are, in fact, unemployed longer if they profited from high firm-fixed components in the past. We interpret our findings as evidence for overconfidence generated by imperfectly observed productivity.     

Forecasting unemployment insurance claims in realtime with Google Trends

Leveraging the increasing availability of ”big data” to inform forecasts of labor market activity is an active, yet challenging, area of research. Often, the primary difficulty is finding credible ways with which to consistently identify key elasticities necessary for prediction. To illustrate, we utilize a state-level event-study focused on the costliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. mainland since 2004 in order to estimate the elasticity of initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims with respect to search intensity, as measured by Google Trends. We show that our hurricane-driven Google Trends elasticity leads to superior real-time forecasts of initial UI claims relative to other commonly used models. Our approach is also amenable to forecasting both at the state and national levels, and is shown to be well-calibrated in its assessment of the level of uncertainty for its out-of-sample predictions during the Covid-19 pandemic.     

The impact of unemployment insurance taxes on wages

This paper examines the incidence of state unemployment insurance taxes on wages paid to workers in various demographic groups. The empirical work matches state level measures of unemployment insurance tax and benefit variables to data aggregated from the Current Population Survey on worker earnings for the period 1992 to 2002. Econometric evidence presented in the paper supports the paper's main hypothesis that UI tax rate structure has its greatest adverse impact on less mobile workers (prime age married women and young workers) and little impact on more mobile workers (prime age men).     

Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells

In this paper administrative data from the unemployment-insurance (UI) system are used to examine the distribution of unemployment spells. Hazard plots of the data reveal a strong clustering around the benefit exhaustion point. In addition, estimation of the effects of the exhaustion point and of the UI benefit level on spell lengths obtained with a non-parametric proportional-hazards model - estimated by direct maximization of the general likelihood function - shows significant effects of both. However, the effect of the exhaustion point on the hazard is not proportional, making detection of its effect somewhat difficult.     

The effects of unemployment insurance on postunemployment earnings

There is surprisingly little research into the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) on postunemployment wage outcomes. Moreover, the few existing studies are sufficiently varied in their approach and conclusions that experienced observers have reached very different interpretations of their implications. We provide new estimates of the effect of UI on subsequent earnings, using data on workers displaced in the period 1983–1990. Our objective is to provide a systematic evaluation of the approaches used in the existing literature. We find some limited evidence of a favorable impact of UI on earnings, but only when we compare recipients with nonrecipients. Even in this case, our point estimates lie well below those reported in earlier studies that pointed to beneficial UI effects.     

The effect of monitoring unemployment insurance recipients on unemployment duration: Evidence from a field experiment

Programme administration is a relatively neglected issue in the analysis of disincentive effects of unemployment benefit systems. We investigate this issue with a field experiment in Hungary involving random assignment of benefit claimants to treatment and control groups. Treatment increases the monitoring of claims — claimants make more frequent visits to the employment office and face questioning about their search behaviour. Treatment has quite a large effect on durations on benefit of women aged 30 and over, while we find no effect for younger women or men.     

The effect of unemployment benefits on re-employment rates: Evidence from the Finnish unemployment insurance reform

In January 2003, the unemployment benefits in Finland were increased for workers with long employment histories. The average benefit increase was 15% for the first 150 days of the unemployment spell. At the same time severance pay system was abolished. In this paper we evaluate the effect of the change in the benefit structure on the duration of unemployment by comparing the changes in the re-employment hazard profiles among the unemployed who were affected by the reform to the changes in a comparison group whose benefit structure remained unchanged. We find that the change in the benefit structure reduced the re-employment hazards by on average 17%. The effect is largest at the beginning of the unemployment spell and disappears after the eligibility period for the increased benefits expires.     

Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19

Near-term forecasts, also called nowcasts, are most challenging but also most important when the economy experiences an abrupt change. In this paper, we explore the performance of models with different information sets and data structures in order to best nowcast US initial unemployment claims in spring of 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that the best model, particularly near the structural break in claims, is a state-level panel model that includes dummy variables to capture the variation in timing of state-of-emergency declarations. Autoregressive models perform poorly at first but catch up relatively quickly. The state-level panel model, exploiting the variation in timing of state-of-emergency declarations, also performs better than models including Google Trends. Our results suggest that in times of structural change there is a bias–variance tradeoff. Early on, simple approaches to exploit relevant information in the cross sectional dimension improve forecasts, but in later periods the efficiency of autoregressive models dominates.     

A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment

Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit.     

Unemployment duration and the interactions between unemployment insurance and social assistance

Existing studies suggest that reforms that reduce the generosity of the unemployment benefits should lower unemployment. Despite the large number of such reforms implemented in Europe in the past decades, evidence from various data sources shows very little correlation with the evolution of unemployment. This paper suggests that the scant success of these labour market reforms can be explained by the interactions between unemployment insurance and other social assistance programmes. Evidence from the European Community Household Panel shows that recipients of unemployment insurance who are also eligible for other welfare schemes are indeed less sensitive to changes in the level and the duration of their benefits.     

Incentive effects of unemployment insurance savings accounts: Evidence from Chile

The paper, the first one to empirically examine whether individual accounts internalize the cost of unemployment, estimates the determinants of job finding rates of unemployment benefit recipients under the Chilean program. This is a unique, innovative program that combines social insurance, provided via solidarity funding, with self-insurance in the form of unemployment insurance savings accounts (UISAs). The paper shows that beneficiaries who use solidarity funding are less likely to exit unemployment in early months than those relying on UISAs only. Moreover, job finding rates are found to be positively correlated with pre-separation UISA balances among those that use solidarity funding, but are found to be uncorrelated with balances for those relying on UISAs only. While the findings are consistent with the effects expected under the internalization of unemployment costs via UISAs, they do not pinpoint unambiguously the causal link, as alternative mechanisms may be responsible for the observed correlations, particularly selection into the use of UISAs.     

Endogenous censoring in the mixed proportional hazard model with an application to optimal unemployment insurance

We examine the sensitivity of estimates of the MPH model with respect to assumptions on the censoring mechanism in the context of an economic model of optimal unemployment insurance. We assume a parametric model for the duration of interest and leave the distribution of censoring unrestricted, allowing it to be correlated with observed and unobserved characteristics. We provide a practical characterization of the identified set with moment inequalities and suggest methods for estimating this set. We apply this approach to estimate the elasticity of unemployment exit rate with respect to unemployment benefit. Finally, we investigate welfare consequences of our estimates.     

Wage bargaining,union membership,and the organization of unemployment insurance

The paper offers a theoretical analysis of a labor market institution known as the Gent system, which is a system where unions run unemployment insurance (UI) through government-subsidized UI funds. This system is practiced in four Nordic countries with comparatively very high unionization rates. The analysis shows that the Gent system is more conducive to unionization than a compulsory UI system if the Gent system is heavily subsidized by the government or if workers are strongly risk averse. Moreover, a rise in the share of benefits financed by union members is likely to reduce wages as well as union membership.     

Productivity insurance: The role of unemployment benefits in a multi-sector model

We construct a multi-sector search and matching model where the unemployed receives idiosyncratic productivity shocks that make working in certain sectors more productive than in the others. Agents must decide which sector to search in and face moving costs when leaving their current sector for another. In this environment, unemployment is associated with an additional risk: low future wages if mobility costs preclude search in the appropriate sector. This introduces a new role for unemployment benefits – productivity insurance while unemployed. For plausible parameterizations unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. In addition, the welfare-maximizing benefit level decreases as moving costs increase.     

Search frictions,real wage rigidities and the optimal design of unemployment insurance

In this paper, we study the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme when the economy is subject to labor market imperfections characterized by real wage rigidities and search frictions. The US unemployment insurance financing is such that firms are taxed proportionately to their layoffs to finance unemployment benefits. Using DSGE methodology, we investigate how policy instruments should interact with labor market imperfections. It is shown that wage rigidities in a search and matching environment cause welfare costs, especially in the absence of an incentive-based unemployment insurance. This cost is mainly due to the distorting effect of wage rigidities which generate inefficient separations. We show that the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme – corresponding to the Ramsey policy – offsets labor market imperfections and allows implementation of the Pareto allocation. The second-best allocation brings the economy close to the Ramsey allocation. The implementation of the optimal policies clearly highlights the role of labor market institutions for short-run stabilization.     

我国目前失业保险政策存在的缺陷及修改建议

失业保险是目前我国已实行的五大社会保险之一,失业保险的全面推行为保障失业人员的基本生活,促使其再就业发挥了重要作用。目前保险政策上还存在个人缴费难以很好地体现缴费者义务和利益的平衡问题,致使用人单位在代扣过程中遭到反对;政策中对农民合同工的待遇规定过低,体现不了政策的公平性。文章根据以上存在的两种缺陷,提出了相应的修改建议。     

Leveraged stock portfolios over long holding periods: A continuous-time model

We use a continuous-time model to derive return and wealth distributions for leveraged portfolios over long holding periods. These theoretical distributions closely match empirical distributions obtained from a resampling procedure. The expected annualized return is a concave function of the degree of leverage. With historical parameter values, the function is maximized at 203% stock, borrowing an amount equal to 103% of net wealth. This maximal stock proportion is considerably reduced if the borrowing rate is higher than the historical lending rate.     

A monetary business cycle model with unemployment

To reproduce key features of the post-war U.S. data, most monetary business cycle models must assume there are high price markups and that agents have high labour supply elasticities despite the existence of contradictory microeconomic evidence. This paper eliminates the need for these assumptions by introducing imperfectly observed effort into a limited participation model. The estimated model is better able to capture the sluggish price response to a monetary policy shock than the standard model, and is consistent with evidence regarding the qualitative responses of the U.S. economy to technology shocks, fiscal policy shocks and monetary policy shocks.     

Equilibrium search unemployment with explicit spatial frictions

Assuming that job search efficiency decreases with distance to jobs, workers' location in a city depends on spatial elements such as commuting costs and land prices and on labour elements such as wages and the matching technology. In the absence of moving costs, we show that there exists a unique equilibrium in which employed and unemployed workers are perfectly segregated but move at each employment transition. We investigate the interactions between the land and the labour market equilibrium and show under which condition they are interdependent. When relocation costs become positive, a new zone appears in which both the employed and the unemployed co-exist and are not mobile. We demonstrate that the size of this area goes continuously to zero when moving costs vanish. Finally, we endogeneize search effort, show that it negatively depends on distance to jobs and that long and short-term unemployed workers coexist and locate in different areas of the city.