Modelling the effects of capacity constraints on air travellers’ airport choice

This paper analyses the effects of limited capacity on air travellers’ airport choice. The analysis is based on a market-segment specific airport choice model that accounts for limited capacities. The region of Stuttgart in Germany serves as a case study to examine the impact of limited airport capacity on air travellers’ airport choice. Air travellers’ choice depends on the supply of flights and accessibility of the airports in their choice set as well as on their preferences and willingness-to-pay. To elaborate the effects of limited airport capacity, scenarios relating to the capacity situation at airports serving the air travel demand of the Stuttgart region are analysed. This paper reveals the mutual dependence among airports. Capacity constraints at one airport cause spill-over effects and thus influence air travel demand served at other airports. In some cases this may even lead to new capacity constraints elsewhere.     

East Coast vs. West Coast: The impact of the Panama Canal’s expansion on the routing of Asian imports into the United States

Asian firms shipping to inland US points choose between West and East Coast ports. West Coast shipments often have lower transit times but higher freight charges. To investigate factors affecting this routing decision, a coast choice model is estimated. Results are then used to project shifts in demand with the coming completion of the Panama Canal expansion. Our simulations show that if the Panama Canal expansion generates significant transit time savings on shipments from Asia, as projected, that there will be major shifts in traffic from West to East Coast ports, raising important policy implications for port operators on both coasts.     

The development of the Gulf region’s air transport networks – The first century

This paper employs the concepts of centrality, intermediacy and proximity to explain the evolution of air transport networks in Asia and applies them to the region surrounding the Arabian Gulf. In doing so the paper provides a structured, historical account of the development of air transport in a region that occupied a central place for important trade routes for thousands of years. The paper argues that there has been a “principal axis shift” so that the role of the region is no longer defined as an intermediate section of the east-west routes. Indeed, the region has come to re-occupy a central place in trade and travel flows serving a fundamentally changed global aviation network building upon the economic and social development within the region.     

Influence of bus-based park and ride facilities on users’ car traffic

The rate of provision of bus-based park and ride facilities on the fringes of UK urban areas has grown in recent years. However, there has been a debate about whether the schemes reduce traffic. Research published in 1998 for the UK Government considered eight case studies and was interpreted by some as providing reassurance that park and ride can have traffic-reduction benefits. The present paper offers a new approach to the appraisal of the same eight park and ride schemes, separating the analysis into urban and extra-urban components. The urban-area analysis considers the net result of intercepting cars on the edge of urban areas and running additional dedicated bus services from the car parks. The finding is that traffic was avoided in seven out of eight cases. The analysis of the extra-urban effects of park and ride considers three sources of traffic increase: motorists that are intercepted detouring to reach sites, users switching from public transport services and motorists making additional trips. All are found to be important phenomena, with the total additional traffic generated outside the urban area being greater than that avoided within the urban area in every case study. It is concluded that the main effect of the schemes is traffic redistribution, and that their role within traffic restraint policies is unlikely to be directly one of traffic reduction.     

The effects of macroeconomic and weather conditions on the business cycle of Taiwan’s adventure tourism

This paper utilises a Markov regime-switching model to explore the influences of macroeconomic and weather conditions on the business cycle of Taiwan’s adventure tourism, that is, white-water rafting. The number of rafting participants is used to identify two stages of the business cycle of the white-water rafting industry: the peak and the trough. Our empirical evidence reveals that unemployment has a negative effect on the number of rafting participants in the troughs while it has a positive effect on the number of rafting participants in the peaks. It follows that economic recession would adversely affect the number of participants in adventure tourism in the troughs, while it is not true in the peaks. Moreover, we show that the more the sunshine hours, the more participants travel on white-water rafting in the peaks. However, temperature is not a determinant of demand for adventure tourism under a subtropical climate, which contradicts much of literature.     

The opening of direct flights across the Taiwan Strait: the impact on the global role of Taiwan’s international airport

Scheduled direct flights between Taiwan and Mainland China were halted for six decades and restarted in December 2008. The Taiwan’s government has a policy of developing Taoyuan International Airport (TPE), the major international airport in Taiwan, as one of main hubs in East Asia, based on the airport’s access to Mainland China. To assess whether the airport is progressing toward meeting the set expectation, this study evaluates the changes in airline networks of the TPE after the opening of direct flights across the Taiwan Strait. The time-dependent earliest arrival time algorithm is applied to global flights in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Empirical evidence demonstrates that providing direct flights across the Taiwan Strait has significantly increased accessibility from TPE to airports in China, but did not improve the centrality of TPE. Additionally, the transfer dependency of TPE on other airports is increasing significantly. This result was based on two major reasons: the first involves the Chinese government’s refusal to allow Chinese citizens to use airports in Taiwan as transfer points to and from other countries and the second reflects the competitiveness among airports and airlines in the region. The key finding is that political exclusion of airline use by external governments via travel regulations adversely influences the development of an airport as a global hub.     

The growth of Arabian airlines from a German perspective – A study of the impacts of new air services to Asia

Airlines from Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have gained significant market shares in international air transport. Traditionally travellers have chosen hubs like Amsterdam, Frankfurt, London or Paris as transfer points for trips to Asia. With the inauguration of non-stop services to places like Abu Dhabi, Doha or Dubai, new choices for air travellers have emerged. We analyse data derived from German air transport statistics on the effects of passenger flows between the airports of Düsseldorf and Hamburg to Asian destinations. They suggest that services introduced by Emirates stimulated passenger demand for Asian destinations, while incumbent hubs do not lose transfer passengers. Regarding travel times and connection quality of routings between secondary airports in Germany and Asian destinations, comparing routings of Emirates Airlines and Lufthansa suggests that due to geographic and scheduling constraints, services via Arabia do not constitute a perfect substitute for time-sensitive passengers.     

Classification and competition analysis of air cargo logistics providers: The case of Taiwan’s high-technology industry

This paper classifies air cargo logistics providers allowing analysis of high-technology manufacturers’ choices of providers. Data are collected from high-technology manufacturers in Taiwan’s science parks. Forwarder providers are put into three categories and nested logit model are applied to explore what service performance factors influence high-technology manufacturers when selecting third party logistics providers. Delivery is found to be the most important factor. It is found, for example, that two express providers with high levels of customer satisfaction and market share could compete more effectively by exercising differential strategies.     

Modeling air travelers’ choice of flight departure and return dates on long holiday weekends

Air travel demand is typically high on long holidays. Understanding factors that influence the choice of air travelers with respect to their departure and return dates on long holidays can help airlines make effective decisions on pricing, ticket sales, and scheduling. We conduct a stated preference survey to examine the preferences of low-cost airline travelers on a particular holiday weekend. A temporally correlated logit model is developed to account for the temporal correlation of day-of-the-week alternatives. The results indicate that airfare is the key variable affecting air travel date choices. The utility of day alternatives decreases when more leave days are required before the holiday begins. Departure dates before the beginning of the holiday weekend and return dates after the end of the holiday are highly substitutable. The low-fare strategy comprising early departures and late returns can effectively increase the load factor of off-peak flights on long holiday weekends.     

Is traffic congestion overrated? Examining the highly variable effects of congestion on travel and accessibility

Congestion is universally unpopular, but is it always a problem? Are some places more “congestion-adapted” than others? Using data for Los Angeles, we examine whether the geographies of congestion and accessibility are distinct by mapping and describing them across neighborhoods. We then estimate a series of regression models of trip-making to test the net effects of traffic delays on behavior. We find that there are places where people make many trips and engage in many activities despite lots of congestion, which tend to be more central, built-up areas that host many short trips; in other places, high congestion and low activity coincide. Why the variance? While congestion can constrain mobility and reduce accessibility, traffic is also associated with agglomerations of activity and is thus a byproduct of proximity-based accessibility. Whether agglomeration and congestion have net positive or negative impacts on activity participation thus varies substantially over space. Controlling for factors such as income and working at home, we find that the effects of congestion on access depend on whether congestion-adaptive travel choices (such as walking and making shorter trips to nearby destinations) are viable. Because “congestion-adapted” places tend to host more trip-making, planners may be justified in creating more such places in order to increase accessibility, even if doing so makes absolute levels of congestion worse in the process.     

The Northeast Asian air transport network: is there a possibility of creating Open Skies in the region?

Unlike in the US and the European Union aviation markets, the Northeast Asian markets are still very fragmented. As a result, the passenger and air freight collection/distribution systems in the region are very inefficiently organized. The primary reason for the inefficient and inconvenient air carrier networks in the region is the restrictive bilateral air services agreements between Asian countries. This paper documents the nature and extent of the restrictive bilateral agreements among China, Japan and Korea, evaluates several bilateral or trilateral approaches for liberalizing the regional air transport markets, and makes a proposal which would increase substantially the probability of achieving an Open Skies market in the region. In particular, the current approach to liberalize the bilateral air services agreements among China, Korea and Japan has limitations even in the medium term because of China's and, to a less extent, Japan's reluctance to remove price and capacity restrictions. Therefore, as an institutional solution we propose to create bi-national (for bilateral negotiations) or tri-national (for trilateral negotiations) ‘Trade and Transport Facilitation Committees’, that can pursue a practical avenue to tie air transport negotiations with those of other goods and services trade.     

Estimation of the occurrence of “short-shipping” of air cargo

Many airlines use the main deck of aircraft to carry passengers and belly capacity to accommodate cargo and baggage. When problems regarding the weight and balance requirements of the aircraft arise, the cargo is the first to be considered for unloading: a practice is known as “short-shipping”. This paper develops a simulation model for estimating the probability of occurrence of short-shipping. Risk analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty of several factors such as the weight of passengers, baggage, and fuel.     

Spatial interpolation of traffic counts based on origin–destination centrality

This paper presents a new method to estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic. Often traffic volumes are estimated based on roadway characteristics, such as number of lanes, speed limit, and adjacent land use. However, for many communities, especially small communities, these attributes are uniform across roadway types and therefore unable to adequately explain observed variation in traffic volumes. The new method uses novel explanatory variables that are intrinsically derived through a modified form of centrality, a network analysis metric that quantifies the topological importance of a link in a network. The new approach requires minimal data collection and is easily executed using a geographic information system. The case study showed high quality results (out-of-sample validation R² = 0.95). The new approach can be used for various activities related to transportation planning and investment decision making.     

Attributes driving the selection of trucking services and the quantification of the shipper’s willingness to pay

This paper investigates the selection of trucking services by shippers that require the movement of truck shipments. A set of pragmatic attributes are postulated to describe trucking services. They are used in a stated choice experiment that collects data and preferences from shippers. A mixed logit model is estimated in order to test the attributes and quantifying the shipper willingness to pay for them. The results are used to provide meaningful negotiation guidance for truck-related shippers and carriers, a significant contribution to literature in transportation, logistics, and supply chain management. A numerical example illustrates the use of the model.     

Impacts on accessibility of China’s present and future HSR network

Although the construction of China’s high-speed rail (HSR) network only started in 2003, the network is already the largest in the world. This paper analyses the impact of the evolving HSR network on the accessibility by HSR and conventional ground transport of 333 prefecture-level cities and 4 municipalities. This paper employs three indicators of accessibility, and analyses three Scenarios. It shows that the HSR network will bring about substantial improvement in accessibility, and lead to national time–space convergence, but will also increase the inequality of nodal accessibility between eastern, central, and western regions, between cities with different sizes of population (excluding the case of the daily accessibility indicator) and between cities that differ in the shortest distance to HSR stations. The HSR network enlarges internal disparities in each of the regions and the five types of cities. The internal inequality of nodal accessibility in all three Scenarios generally increases from the eastern region via the central region to the western region, as well as from very large cities to small cities, varying inversely with the level of economic development and population size. Spatially, accessibility increases generally conform to the distance decay rule but with minor fluctuations. The 50 cities with the largest increases in accessibility are mostly located 50 km or less away from HSR stations and have populations of over 3 million, with the smaller ones located along HSR lines or around large cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. As time progresses, the planned HSR network will result in more balanced development, but regional disparities in accessibility will still be greater than before the construction of the HSR.     

Influence of the ‘slow city’ brand association on the behavioural intention of potential tourists

This study sees the ‘slow city’ idea as a brand, and used an empirical method to examine the influence of its brand association types on the behavioural intentions of potential tourists. The measurement of brand association types was limited to the following 13 variables: slow food, traditional culture, authentic local food, happiness, healthy, organic, peaceful, quality of life, beautiful scenery, comfortable, affectionate, compassion and well-being, elicited from a pre-test. The findings from 485 potential tourists in the 2 largest cities in South Korea show that eliciting positive feelings and brand associations are strong marketing strategies that increase the chance of tourist visits, and therefore could influence the choice of a destination and the chance for revisits in the future. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the marketing influence of the slow city brand on the behavioural intentions of potential tourists.     

Who is the main influencer on safety performance of dangerous goods air transportation in China?

The safety of dangerous goods transport by air is crucial to human and environment protection. This paper aims to identify the critical influence on dangerous goods’ safety performance in air transportation. Twenty risk factors are summarized and categorized by regulations and standards, government supervisor activities, operator activities and shipper activities. Several hypotheses are examined via structural equation modeling using a sample of online surveys in China. Results show that the operator and the government are the main influencers of safety performance in the air transport of dangerous goods. The total process safety is emphasized. The findings facilitate the prevention of accidents and unsafe incidents when transporting dangerous goods via air.     

Residents’ attitudes on the contribution of cultural tourism in Tanzania

This study aimed at evaluating residents’ attitudes towards the contribution of cultural tourism to the social welfare of the local rural residents participating in cultural tourism activities by factoring gender and level of education as possible differentiating factors in residents’ attitudes. Based on survey of local people in northern part of Tanzania, a questionnaire was administered that yielded data that were subjected to a series of t-tests. The results indicate residents to have both positive and negative attitudes towards the contribution of cultural tourism. Gender differences are noted to relate with cultural tourism participation and attitudes towards the contribution of cultural tourism. Females benefit more from cultural tourism than males in economic terms. Having education raises the chances of locals having a more positive attitude towards cultural tourism. From the results, implications to facilitators in cultural tourism to further aid tourism contribution to the locals are derived.