Hayek and the Great Depression of 1929: Did he really change his mind?

The aim of this research is to establish whether, and if so in what way, Hayek changed his mind about the Great Depression of 1929.The work is divided into two parts. In the first part, I present the ‘early’ Hayek of the 1930s. Hayek was the great rival of Keynes. Both explained the Great Depression, applying opposing business cycle theories. For Keynes, the crisis was caused by an excess of saving over investment; for Hayek, on the contrary, by an excess of investment over saving. In the early 1930s, Röpke attempted a synthesis, positing that a recession due to overinvestment can degenerate, as in 1929, into a depression caused by oversaving. Hayek examined and rejected Röpke's theory. In the second part, I present the ‘later’ Hayek of the 1970s. After years of silence and solitude, Hayek was unexpectedly awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, precisely for the contribution he made in the 1930s to the theory of the business cycle. Hayek returned to his pursuit of the ghost of Keynes, debated with his friend and rival Friedman, re-examined Röpke's special case and, according to Haberler, changed his mind. In my conclusion, I attempt to resolve the dilemma.     

Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model

In 1851 the French Social economist Auguste Ott discussed the problem of gluts and commercial crises, together with the issue of distributive justice between workers in co-operative societies. He did so by means of a ‘simple reproduction scheme’ sharing some features with modern intersectoral transactions tables, in particular in terms of their graphical representation. This paper presents Ott's theory of crises (which was based on the disappointment of expectations) and the context of his model, and discusses its peculiarities, supplying a new piece for the reconstruction of the prehistory of input–output analysis.     

Andre Gunder Frank: ‘Unity in Diversity’ from the Development of Underdevelopment to the World System

The purpose of this article is to critically review the work of Andre Gunder Frank. This is no easy task given the prolific and controversial nature of his life work. His main distinction is as a paradigm breaker and a paradigm maker. Frank is one of the founders of contemporary world system theory. He coined some memorable expressions such as the ‘development of underdevelopment’ and ‘Re-Orient’. Indeed, these two concepts highlight two distinct phases in his work. His first phase is characterised by his writings on dependency theory and his initial understanding of world system theory broadly in line with Amin, Arrighi and Wallerstein. His second phase is distinguished by what he considers to be the ‘Eurocentric’ interpretation of world system theory of Wallerstein and others as well as by his critique of his own earlier work. While some of Frank's analyses and assertions proved to be wrong, he provided much inspiration to a new generation of scholars and activists, some of whom provided the necessary empirical evidence and theoretical rigour lacking in parts of Frank's work. But he excelled in his mission of providing the big picture, asking the unimaginable questions and exploring hitherto inconceivable interrelationships.     

‘Anecdotal myths’: Tinbergen's influence on Harrod's growth theory

Abstract

In the history of economic theory, Harrod's transition from the explanation of business cycles in An Essay on the Trade Cycle (1936) to his well‐known growth theory in ‘An essay in dynamic theory’ (1939) has always been surrounded by some degree of speculation. One of the topics in that area of speculation concerns the (degree of) influence exerted by Tinbergen on the development of Harrod's growth theory during the 1936–9 period.

This paper argues that Tinbergen's influence on Harrod's work mainly took place on formal, mathematical, grounds, leaving methodological matters untouched. This matter is of some importance in understanding the success of what was initially considered by others as a ‘dynamic’ extension of the Keynesian research programme and later evolved, through the work of Tinbergen and Solow, into a neoclassical growth theory.     

Institutionalism and the “Common Man” Through the Lens of Philip Klein: Business Cycles,the Public Sector,and Keynes’s Economics

This article reviews and assesses Philip Klein’s work on business cycles and macroeconomics, the public sector, and the economics of John Maynard Keynes. The article makes several findings. First, Klein built on the pioneering efforts of Wesley Mitchell to advance the development of cycle indicators and to outline an eclectic theory of cycles that remains useful for synthesizing a broad literature. Second, Klein’s essays on macroeconomics contain enduring discussions of the malleability of the “natural” rate of unemployment and the value of a behavioral approach to expectations. Third, he refocused the institutionalist attention on the public sector by introducing “higher efficiency” and other concepts to help explain how government policy plays a role in economic life. Fourth, Klein emphasized the role of fiscal policy in moderating business cycles. Fifth, his work points in the direction of today’s post-Keynesian institutionalism, both by stressing that Keynes was “profoundly institutionalist” in his approach and by arguing that conjoining Keynes and institutionalism would provide a stronger foundation for macroeconomic theory and policy.     

The age of the universal consumer: a reconsideration of Ricardo's politics *

This paper reconsiders Ricardo's political thought, its relationship with his political economy and, more generally, Ricardo's connection with the ‘philosophical radicalism’ of Bentham and James Mill. It is arguedinter alia, that Ricardo's politics were utilitarian and individualistic; that he developed a notion of a shared, homogeneous interest; that he believed that individuals should know their ‘real’ interests as a condition for their suffrage; and that he subscribed to a doctrine of virtual representation. It is also argued that Ricardo was considerably less ‘radical’ in his political views than some previous commentators have recognized.     

The Point of Effective Demand

Abstract

Keynes's principle of effective demand conceives competitive equilibrium in terms of the choices of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers, rather than of the optimal allocation of factors of production. In The General Theory, effective demand is distinguished from aggregate demand and from income, expected or realised, and there is no suggestion that equilibrium means the convergence of expectations. Reconsideration of Keynes's use of time and equilibrium periods leads to the conclusion that he treats employment as in continuous equilibrium, at the point of effective demand, determined by the state of expectation, the correctness of which is strictly irrelevant. The nature of the equilibrium represented by the point of effective demand is here described, not in terms of the multiplier, but in terms of the continuous equilibrium of supply and demand in short-term forward markets. This reading is faithful to Keynes's conception of aggregate demand as dependent upon the expectations of entrepreneurs, and it resolves the meaning of his ‘long-period employment.’ Formal appendices identify the differences between Keynes and Walras and the nature of the multiplier. The paper concludes that the Keynesian cross and ‘Swedish’ analysis should be abandoned, and the Walrasian conception recognised as only the limiting case of general competitive equilibrium in a monetary economy.     

The French Revolution and the Creation of Benthamism

Abstract

The article investigates Knut Wicksell's interpretation of aggregate economic fluctuations. It is shown that Wicksell described the business cycle as oscillations of an economy with increasing population and scarce natural resources around its steady growth path ('dynamic equilibrium'), provoked by sporadic technological progress. The ‘shocks’ bring about a wave‐like motion because of psychological and technical lags in the economic structure. Wicksell's suggestion that excess net savings in the depression take the form of stocks of commodities is compared to his contemporaries’ answers to the question ‘What happens to savings during the depression?’ The article also puts forward a relatively neglected connection between Malthus’ and Wicksell's notions of over‐production. Divergences between the natural and market rates of interest — essential to his better‐known ‘cumulative process’ ‐ are not a necessary part of Wicksell's business cycle, but they are important to explain why the upper turning‐point can have the nature of a crisis, which results from wrong expectations induced by cumulative price movements.     

What if people value nature? Climate change and welfare costs

We introduce temperature shocks and preferences for environmental quality in a real business cycle model with natural resources. Temperature anomalies are transmitted to the business cycles via their negative effects on output and agents’ utility. Our findings suggest that permanent and temporary weather shocks propagation and their welfare implications depend crucially on whether agents value environmental quality. A permanent increase in temperature reduces output with damages reaching up to 1.61% of GDP. Agents who value environmental quality experience a higher temporary welfare gain when facing a negative weather shock, but welfare drops faster as the economy returns to equilibrium. Temperature anomalies amplify the (negative) effect of climate change on natural resources use and welfare.     

The dichotomy once again

Patinkin's contribution to monetary theory is discussed with particular attention given to his ‘dichotomy argument’. It is shown that he is perfectly correct, but there is a confusion in the literature between the ‘neutrality proposition’ and the independence of equilibrium of the quantity of money. I then turn to homogeneity and its importance, and stress that the homogeneity applies to current as well as expected prices. I am rather unkind to mathematizing the double coincidence of wants argument, since it seems very obvious and the mathematics is exceptionally ugly. The paper concludes with remarks on monetary policy and the connection between the theory of money and that of information.     

Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown

Using a DSGE-model with interbank market frictions, calibrated to match the frequency of financial crises, I investigate central banks' ability to prevent credit-related recessions by following an interest rate rule which accounts for financial conditions —an approach called ‘leaning against the wind’. The model's key feature is that boom-bust cycles emerge as a result of a savings glut and moral hazard in the banking sector. Although financial conditions predict crises, the policy maker cannot break the boom-bust cycle and reduce the crisis-frequency. When crises become more likely, low inflation forces the central bank to decrease the interest rate despite its intention to do otherwise. Responding to crisis-predictors eventually dilutes the primary objective of stabilizing inflation and leads to higher inflation volatility. The results suggest that central banks should refrain from leaning against the wind.     

The instability principle revisited: an essay in Harrodian dynamics

Abstract

Harrod's contribution to economic dynamics is very often reduced to the dynamic equation whose character is unstable. Growth theory and cycle theory based on Harrod's contributions aimed at reducing this instability. Following Harrod, who was strongly opposed to the ‘knife-edge’ interpretation, we define the warranted rate of growth as a ‘moving equilibrium’ and focus on its interaction with the effective rate of growth. Our simple Harrodian model generates various dynamics from stable path, to growth cycle and corridor of stability.     

Wicksell's lecture notes on economic crises (1902/05)

The article brings to light Knut Wicksell's Lund lecture notes of 1902 and 1905 on economic crises. In these notes, written a few years after his book on interest and prices but before most of his published work on business cycles, Wicksell made an attempt to bridge the gap between monetary and real theories of crises. The notes are remarkable for a discussion of how partial overproduction is generalized through the credit mechanism and for an assessment and diagrammatic treatment of the controversies between Malthus, Say and Owen on general overproduction.     

Remittances over the business cycle: Theory and evidence

We examine the behaviour of remittances over the business cycle and their potential to act as a ‘stabilizer’ during periods of high business cycle volatility. Two main findings are reported. First, remittances are less volatile than other foreign currency flows and do not appear to systemically comove with business cycle fluctuations. Second, remittances are relatively stable even during episodes of sharp business cycle volatility, such as those associated with sudden stops and financial crises. We also provide an overview of the theoretical literature on the implications of different motives to remit for the cyclical behaviour of remittances.     

Confronting the Geopolitical Aesthetic: Fredric Jameson,The Perfumed Nightmare and the Perilous Place of Third Cinema

This essay explores the conceptual limitations within Fredric Jameson's notion of the geopolitical aesthetic through an analysis of Jameson's now classic reading of The Perfumed Nightmare; this film is central to his concept of the utopic character of film more generally and, moreover, to his argument on the embeddedness of Third World representations within a global, capitalist system. We suggest that, although Jameson acknowledges the underlying constructed and relational character of ontological categories such as film (despite their reification under capitalism), his theory of historical materialism demands that they also be understood as formed with regard to a socio-economic totality. And, because the recognition of a totality requires a master narrative within which all can be understood and framed within a logic of equivalence, Jameson must by default conceive of epistemology as fundamentally divided between a true and a false consciousness. Taking our own cue from recent developments in anti-essentialist thought, we conceive of such cultural forms as the temporarily fixed embodiment of broader-scale discourses that continually construct and deconstruct the world as we know it, including our understandings of the ‘real’ as well as the ‘economic’, the ‘political’ and the ‘cultural’. In our own re-imagining of The Perfumed Nightmare, we provide a partial response to this, noting how these realms are constituted from the temporary ‘fixing’ of a series of people- and place-based identities, such as those constituted under the rubric of ‘gender’. Accordingly, we re-work the term ‘cognitive mapping’ as the attempt to outline the web of significations within which objects are embedded as well as the concomitant lines of fracture and contradiction that allow for such objects to become meaningful in a host of other contexts.     

Jevons's Theory of Political Economy and the ‘Marginalist Revolution’ *

Very many statements have been made about the (non-)existence and characterisation of the ‘marginal revolution’ but it is urged here that detailed study of the relevant texts is far more valuable than the making of grand statements about such matters. In particular, a close reading of Jevons's Theory of Political Economyis proposed as an antidote to over-easy generalisation. Jevons by no means rejected all elements of classical theory. He did not propose a catallatic revolution; he attributed such an emphasis to earlier authors and himself stressed the role of production. It is shown that Jevons was very aware of the necessarily general equilibrium nature of his theory but that he was simply not able to cope with it satisfactorily; it is suggested that this explains, at least in part, his fluctuating and apparently inconsistent statements relating utility and labour to value. Jevons certainly attempted to sketch a complete marginal productivity theory of distribution, even if he was far from successful in providing one.     

The Hayekian Puzzle: Spontaneous Order and the Business Cycle

In his early years, F. A. Hayek focused his research on the theory of capital and the business cycle. Later he turned to social philosophy and the theory of a spontaneous economic order. The two phases, it is argued in this paper, correspond to two basically incompatible research programs—general equilibrium theory vs. a theory of adapting, collective learning, and expectation formation. Hayek never reconsidered business cycle theory in the light of his later thought. The paper asks why and discusses what role cyclical fluctuations in aggregate economic activity may have to be play in the theory of spontaneous economic order.     

Balance Mechanics and Business Cycles

Abstract

Many mainstream business cycle theories were not able to cope with the financial crisis theoretically. With his concept of balance mechanics, the German economist Wolfgang Stützel developed a framework for comparing different theories of business cycles which helps to understand the reasons for this inadequacy. This paper works out Stützel’s considerations and his four “model cases” of cycles more systematically and shows how the theories of the business cycle Stützel mentioned are related to theories discussed today. Modern business cycle theories did not cover all “model cases” and therefore had a blind spot.     

The place of education in W. S. Jevons's political economy

The paper begins with the question of what became, in Jevons's new economics, of the imperative in classical political economy to educate the masses. Much of the core of classical thought, including the Malthusian principle and the wages-fund theory, together with Mill's new arguments about market failure, rationalized the need for state-supported general education as a benefit to both the labouring classes and society at large. Jevons's strong claim that Ricardo-Mill economics must be abandoned would seem to leave education policy without a strong mooring. However, he re-anchored it in his productivity approach to wage theory, his utility maximization approach to value theory and public works spending, and his empirical analyses of business cycles, the potential of long-term austerity, and poor consumption-saving behaviour of the working classes. The end result was similar to that of classical political economy, a multi-dimensional rationale for a policy of State-supported general education.     

Professor Fisher and the quantity theory – a significant encounter

Abstract

Irving Fisher's encounter with the Quantity Theory of Money began in the 1890s, during the debate about bimetallism, and reached its high point in 1911 with the publication of The Purchasing Power of Money. His most important refinement of the theory, derived from his recognition of bank deposits as means of exchange, was to treat their out of equilibrium recursive interaction with inflation as integral to it. This treatment underlay both his 1920s work on the business cycle as a “dance of the dollar” and his advocacy of subjecting monetary policy to a legislated price stability rule, initially to be based on his “compensated dollar” scheme. Fisher's failure to recognise the onset of the Great Depression even as it was happening was directly related to his faith in the quantity theory's seeming implication that price level stability in and of itself guaranteed the continuation of prosperity, while his subsequent work on the debt deflation theory of great depressions initially failed to repair the damage that this failure did to his reputation, and to that of the quantity theory. In the 1930s Fisher nevertheless remained an active supporter of various schemes to reflate and then stabilise the price level. His subsequent influence on the quantity theory based Monetarist counter-revolution that began in the 1950s lay, directly, in its deployment of his analysis of expected inflation on nominal interest rates, and, indirectly, in its espousal of the case for subjecting monetary policy to a legislated rule.