道路交通事故预测面临的困难及误区

道路交通管理的实质是对交通系统状态进行监测,并根据出现的问题提出防控对策,使之处于良性发展状态的过程.     

改变游戏规则的技术

航空公司的商业模式被迫大幅变革,其中影响的因素包括：低成本航空的成功,基地在海湾的航空公司兴起,附属收入战略的多元化,不同类型模式的整合,以及新一波技术浪潮。这意味着：商业模式的渐进性变革不再足够应付挑战或是迎接全球航空业的发展机会。     

Dynamic price dispersion in airline markets

This study analyzes the factors that explain the variations of daily airfares across fare histories, or dynamic price dispersion. Empirical analyses show that dynamic price dispersion is significantly influenced by demand characteristics variables such as population, income and the share of business passengers, as well as by competitive pressures stemming from the presence of low-cost carriers, but not by the competition intensity. The impact of these variables intensifies as the departure date approaches. These results imply that in the presence of low-cost carriers, full-service carriers tend to adopt a more aggressive high-low pricing strategy.     

Restorative advertising in the airline sector

It is sometimes contended that large airlines cut their advertising expenditure in reaction to major accidents and postpone it until after the memories of accidents have dissipated. This paper assesses the relationship between safety perceptions and airline advertising expenditure based on the assumption that consumers have updating beliefs and dissipating memories. The results suggest that large airlines do not vary their advertising in reaction to accidents resulting in minor or serious injuries, but appear to decrease advertising expenditure in response to fatal accidents.     

Price volatility in the airline markets

In this article we examine volatility measures and investigate what factors explain price volatility in different US domestic air routes. We find that volatility remains reasonably stable up to 2 weeks prior to the flight, at which point it increases significantly. The type, LCC or legacy carrier, and identity of the airlines appears to have a major impact on the volatility measures, and that these effects are different for 2 weeks out and 1 day out, even after controlling for market differences.     

Testing prospect theory in airline demand

The article tests for the existence of reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity in airline demand, in the context of price responsiveness amongst low cost, regular and charter airlines. We incorporate the reference-dependent model into a mixed model to control for heterogeneity. The application finds considerable differences between reference and actual prices in decision-making, confirming that reference dependence exists. People react more strongly to price increases than to decreases relative to their reference price supporting the loss aversion phenomenon and that there is diminishing sensitivity for losses only.     

Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation

This paper presents two gravity models for the estimation of air passenger volume between city-pairs. The models include variables describing the general economic activity and geographical characteristics of city-pairs instead of variables describing air service characteristics. Thus, both models can be applied to city-pairs where currently no air service is established, historical data is not available, or for which factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not accessible or accurately predictable. One model is limited to city-pairs with airports not subject to competition from airports in the vicinity, while the other model includes all city-pairs. Booking data of flights between Germany and 28 European countries is used for calibration. Both models show a good fit to the observed data and are statistically tested and validated.     

Evaluation of US legacy airline distribution strategies

Seventeen years of operational data is used to explore the relationship between efficiency and distribution strategies. Despite perceivable market power possessed by the strongest players in an oligopoly industry, the end results reveal that US legacy airline distribution strategies negatively impacted their performance and did not improve operational efficiency.     

Ethical and moral considerations of airline management

Air transport is a relatively new industry. It has expanded rapidly and now is an exceptionally safe way to travel. But all may not be well. Despite all this achievement, the human face of commercial aviation has been somewhat tarnished by the very prolific growth of carriage by air, and the monotonous regularity with which it is executed. Aviation business management needs to go back to basics, where the formula “everyone needs to know and feel that he is needed; and everyone wants to be treated as an individual” has to be revisited in the face of modern exigencies experienced by the passenger. The issue is likely to gain in importance in the future as economic, political and social trends affect the types of people who wish to use air transport. Airline managers have to be aware of the need to identify passengers in need and offer tangible support and assistance. This article addresses issues relating to the human face of aviation management and looks at some of the proposals to improve current practices.     

A study of the airline boarding problem

The airline industry is currently under intense pressure to simultaneously increase efficiency, customer satisfaction, and profitability. The boarding process is one way to achieve this objective as it lends itself to adaptive changes. The purpose of this paper is to determine the most cost-effective way to board passengers and still maintain quality and customer satisfaction. We conclude that the best strategy is to use a non-traditional methodology of outside-in or some modification thereof. The findings suggest that airline managers should consider issues related to evenly distributing boarding activity throughout the aircraft, developing more effective policies for managing carry-on luggage, and using simultaneous loading through two doors.     

Price perception of online airline ticket shoppers

This study combines the concept of price perception with Internet users’ behavior as a theoretical framework in which to portray price perception among consumers with different choices of retail channels. The findings of a survey conducted in Taiwan show that online airline ticket shoppers tend to perceive price more negatively than offline airline ticket shoppers and assignors. Consumers are likely to adopt Internet as their retail channel for airline ticket if they are more concerned about value for money and lower prices. These consumers are also tended to be the information sources to their acquaintances.     

The geographic effects of US airline alliances

Code-share agreements in the airline industry allow participants the opportunity to offer service to destinations they do not physically serve. This paper concentrates on the recently proposed domestic code-share agreements between United/Delta, Continental/Northwest, and American/US Airways, six of the largest commercial carriers in the United States. Changes in destinations served as well as geographic regions of dominance based upon market share are examined. The result is a clearer view of regions of dominance for each alliance in the United States. The proposed United/Delta alliance shows an expansion across the entire United States. The Continental/Northwest alliance allows the carriers to compete with the “Big Three”. The American/US Airways proposed alliance appears to benefit US Airways (US) more than American.     

Mitigation of airspace congestion impact on airline networks

In recent years European airspace has become increasingly congested and airlines can now observe that en-route capacity constraints are the fastest growing source of flight delays. In 2010 this source of delay accounted for 19% of all flight delays in Europe and has been increasing with an average yearly rate of 17% from 2005 to 2010. This paper suggests and evaluates an approach to how disruption management can be combined with flight planning in order to create more proactive handling of the kind of disruptions, which are caused by congested airspace. The approach is evaluated using data from a medium size European carrier and estimates a lower bound saving of several million USD.     

欧美支线航空：家家有本难念的经

欧洲的航空公司行业从全球经济危机中复苏缓慢,支线航空公司行业也是如此。欧洲支线航空公司协会（ERA）代表了大约70家航空公司,2010年成员的客运运输量同比只增长了2．5％。欧洲机场的客运吞吐量在同期增长了4．2％。     

Growth and internationalisation strategies in the airline industry

This paper analyses the international growth of the global air transport sector to identify factors that determine the emergence of transnational companies and different forms of international expansion in the airline industry. An analysis of the market structure is conducted to understand why traditional, full service airlines have adopted alliances and code sharing to internationalise their business, while low-cost carriers prefer more direct methods to enter new foreign markets.     

The effects of China's airline mergers on prices

This paper looks at the effects of some of the recent airline mergers in China. Overall, no significant airfare increases are found in a sample of markets served by the merged China Eastern and China Southern after 2002; indeed in most of the markets directly affected airfares declined. This was despite the absence of antitrust laws and enforcement over the period. However, market power was possibly exercised after the mergers in China Eastern's hub-to-hub networks.     

International transmission of shocks in the airline industry

There is a large literature on the international transmission of financial and other economic crises. This paper borrows from macroliterature to study an industry specific issue. It examines the impact of an industry specific real shock on firms within that industry, but in countries other than the crisis. In particular, it examines the impact of the events of September 11, 2001 on the market value of non-US airlines. In addition is attempts to identify both graphically and statistically, the importance of trade linkages and airline alliances in the international transmission of shocks.     

A non-additive model for evaluating airline service quality

This study develops a non-additive model for evaluating and improving the service quality of airlines and compares its results with the conventional additive method. Service quality is a composite of various attributes and many in a system have inter-dependent characteristics that may not be correctly evaluated using conventional additive measures. A fuzzy integral is thus proposed. Factor analysis is initially used to extract some independent common-factors and fuzzy integral used to integrate the performance ratings of inter-dependent attributes in each common-factor. For the analytic hierarchy process a pair-wise comparative approach is adopted to determine the relative weights linking each independent common-factor. Finally, Grey relation analysis and simple additive weight method are used to find airline service quality. A study of international airlines is conducted for verification. Safety and reliability emerge as the critical factors of service quality.     

Competitive drivers towards improved airport/airline relationships

This paper draws on a recent report from Copenhagen Economics, with which both authors were involved, to argue that the European airport market has changed such that airports are now subject to competitive constraints from a number of sources. While these will bite differentially according to the circumstances of individual airports, airport possession of significant market power can no longer be casually assumed; nor, therefore, can the need for economic regulation. Indeed, the costs and benefits of economic regulation need to be carefully assessed against the extent and nature of the market power it is intended to countervail. In particular, increasing attention needs to be paid to the risks of economic regulation hampering both the further growth of airport competition and the development of more productive commercial relationships between airports and their airline customers which have the potential to create added value for both parties.