International air transportation and economic development

Legislation in 1977 and 1978 effectively deregulated the US domestic air cargo and air passenger transportation industries. International air transportation, largely as the result of the ‘Open Skies’ initiative from 1979 has also gradually been liberalized but progress has been geographically and temporally uneven. This study is concerned with extending the Open Skies concept and in accessing the benefits to the US economy of removing the remaining impediments to the provision of free market services involving, in particular, the full transatlantic market. It initially reviews some of the previous work that has looked at links between industrial location and the quality of international air transportation. It develops a modeling framework to examine the implications of further liberalization on the economies of US regions that currently have limited international services. The work involves a macro-analysis of the impact of European international services for 41 Metropolitan Standard Areas.     

The impact of US–EU “Open Skies” agreement on airline market structures and airline networks

The gradual liberalization of international air transport has largely benefited the traveling public. Progress since the development of concepts such as “Open Skies” in the late 1970s as an alternative to the restrictive bilateral air service agreements that had effectively controlled most international air transport since the mid-1940s has been uneven and spasmodic. The recent move to open the North Atlantic more fully to competition has proved a particularly challenging task, and the agreement between the US and the European Union is still both partial and conditional. This paper offers an overview of the economics of the situation and provides insights into the reasons why it has developed in the way it has, the outcomes that we may expect from it, and some consideration of the wider, non-commercial, impacts that it may have.     

The Northeast Asian air transport network: is there a possibility of creating Open Skies in the region?

Unlike in the US and the European Union aviation markets, the Northeast Asian markets are still very fragmented. As a result, the passenger and air freight collection/distribution systems in the region are very inefficiently organized. The primary reason for the inefficient and inconvenient air carrier networks in the region is the restrictive bilateral air services agreements between Asian countries. This paper documents the nature and extent of the restrictive bilateral agreements among China, Japan and Korea, evaluates several bilateral or trilateral approaches for liberalizing the regional air transport markets, and makes a proposal which would increase substantially the probability of achieving an Open Skies market in the region. In particular, the current approach to liberalize the bilateral air services agreements among China, Korea and Japan has limitations even in the medium term because of China's and, to a less extent, Japan's reluctance to remove price and capacity restrictions. Therefore, as an institutional solution we propose to create bi-national (for bilateral negotiations) or tri-national (for trilateral negotiations) ‘Trade and Transport Facilitation Committees’, that can pursue a practical avenue to tie air transport negotiations with those of other goods and services trade.     

EU/US Open Skies – Competition and change in the world aviation market: The implications for the Irish aviation market

The EU/US Open Skies agreement became operational on March 29th, 2008. The 23% increase in flights between Ireland and the US in 2008 under the agreement is the highest expected increase under the agreement and is almost three times greater than the expected overall increase in air travel between the EU and the US. Open Skies increases the number of routes between Ireland and the US by 3 to 10 and allows airlines to fly directly to and from Dublin without a compulsory stop at Shannon. There are very strong economic, investment, visitor, political and ethnic ties between Ireland and the US and air travel between the countries per head of population in Ireland is 5.6 times greater than the EU average. The benefits from Open Skies include lower fares, new routes and direct services reducing the need to backtrack over European hubs, in addition to the abolition of the requirement to stopover at Shannon.     

The effects of open skies agreements on transatlantic air service levels

This paper examines the effects of Open Skies agreements on service levels in transatlantic aviation markets. Our route analysis reveals that Open Skies agreements between European countries and the US have resulted in both increases and decreases in service levels. Of the 22 European countries with US Open Skies agreements in place by 2007, only seven demonstrated increases in service levels while six showed reductions. Five countries saw no significant change and the remaining four have yet to receive direct transatlantic service, suggesting that liberalization alone does not lead to service level increases.     

The potential impacts of the EU/US Open Sky Agreement: What will happen at Heathrow after spring 2008

The paper examines the impact of removing the restrictions remaining in EU/US bilateral air service agreements, the major one relating to the air services between the US and the UK. These are dismantled under Stage I of the EU/US Open Skies agreement, which will automatically fall unless progress is made on the Stage II issues, especially reform of the US ownership and control rules. Previous evaluations of the likely impact of lifting these restrictions are reviewed, especially in relation to passengers and fares between the US and London. Such evaluations look optimistic given preliminary plans for the first summer season. Reasons why airlines prefer Heathrow to Gatwick are discussed before comparing US/London air service capacity for June 2008 with the previous June, with indications for a 5% increase in overall seat capacity and an 8% increase in flights. A net increase of seven daily flights is planned from Heathrow and Gatwick, not far in excess of normal market growth and no new non-stop routes will be introduced that had not already been operated from either UK airport. These changes are analysed in terms of US and UK airline responses, taking into account slot availability and cost. The seat capacity share of US carriers from both Heathrow and Gatwick advances by just over 2 percentage points to 40%.     

The assessment of the EU–US Open Skies Agreement: The counterfactual and other difficulties

The advent of the EU–US Open Skies Agreement has been widely anticipated. A number of consequences have been predicted, for example, impacts on fares, on passenger volumes, choice and on consumer welfare. Airline costs are also predicted to fall as a result of increased competitiveness and increased cooperation among airlines. In the short period since the implementation of the Agreement, it is relatively easy to assess the supply-side changes that have been made, but more difficult to make wider judgements. For example, can traffic growth be attributed to Open Skies and does airline and alliance market power result in less fare flexibility with consequently less influence on changes in passenger volumes? Have airline costs changed and what has been the source of the savings? This paper offers some insight into the data that will be required to make these and other wider judgements and discusses some methodological difficulties.     

An empirical analysis of Canadian international air policy: effects of dual carrier designation and partial liberalization

This paper assesses the impact on air traffic of Canada's policy of allowing two Canadian flag carriers (dual-designation) to operate in select Canadian international markets. The secondary objective is to assess the effect of Canada's partially liberalized bilateral air services agreements. Using panel data covering Canada's 33 bilateral markets over the 1982–1994 period, we find the following results: (a) dual designation/operation of Canadian carriers in a country-pair market increases total traffic volumes in the market as well as increases the combined passenger volume and market share of Canadian carriers, and (b) Canada's partially liberalized bilateral air services agreements have significantly increased air traffic in those country-pair markets.Two policy implications follow from this research. First, Air Canada's recent merger with Canadian Airlines is expected to have a significant negative impact on total traffic volumes as well as on Canadian carrier traffic volumes and market shares on the country-pair markets both Air Canada and Canadian served previously. Second, not only the US style full liberal bilaterals or open skies, but also partial liberalization of bilateral markets Canada adopted appears to generate consumer welfare benefits.     

“Open skies” or open clubs? New issues for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

Air transport continues to lie outside the rules of the world trading system. Yet pressures for changes in the management of trade in air transport services are emerging within the bilateral system of regulation, particularly through United States efforts to negotiate so-called “Open Skies” arrangements, but also through new regional arrangements. A new method is outlined of exploiting the trends in regional cooperation and the pressures induced by the United States strategy to facilitate the liberalisation of air transport markets. This method applies the principles of what have been called “open clubs”. The principles include transparency and openness to new members as well as the absence of an intention to discriminate against outsiders. These principles are consistent with APEC's strategy of open regionalism. The paper suggests that APEC is a suitable process within which to develop the application of the open club idea and it outlines the manner in which its principles might be applied to air transport.     

The impact of Air Service Agreement liberalisation: The case of Nigeria

The positive impact of air transport liberalisation as suggested by economic theories and empirical studies has inspired many developing countries like Nigeria to liberalise some of its Air Service Agreements (ASAs). This paper seeks to examine the extent to which international air service liberalisation has impacted upon Nigeria ten years after it was introduced. The research developed a cross-sectional model with passenger traffic as the dependent variable, while macroeconomic factors (trade and GDP), historical links, distance and ASAs (a proxy for liberalisation) served as independent or predictor variables. The analysis revealed a set of ASA stages in the country's policy-making process (restricted Bilateral Air Service Agreement, Open Skies Agreement and Yamoussoukro Declaration). Further analysis showed that the predictor variables were all significant in explaining passenger demand. The model demonstrated that the liberalisation of market access to the Open Skies Agreement level could stimulate traffic growth by at least 65 percent. The findings can assist in guiding policy and industry stakeholders in future decisions relating to liberalisation and ASAs.     

A cointegration analysis of bilateral air travel flows: The case of international travel to and from the United States

Demand for international air travel has risen over the past decade causing international visitation to the US to reach a record high in 2012. This paper assesses the dynamic impacts of GDP, exchange rate, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks on bilateral air travel flows between the US and its 11 major travel and trading partners. An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach is employed to estimate short- and long-run relationships between variables. Long-run results demonstrate foreign GDP as the major determinant of demand for inbound travel to the US and US GDP is a crucial factor affecting demand for outbound travel from the US. These findings support a strong linkage between economic growth and demand for international air travel. The real exchange rate has relatively little impact on the bilateral air travel flows. The US dollar appreciation against foreign currencies is found to reduce demand for inbound travel to the US, while having mixed effects on outbound travel from the US. In the short-run, economic growth tends to be a primary factor influencing international travel flows to and from the US. The 9/11 market shock has a detrimental short- and long-run effect on the bilateral air travel flows, implying that the impact of 9/11 is prolonged in international air travel markets.     

US open skies agreements and unlevel playing fields

We examine the relationship between ‘Open Skies’ agreements (OSAs) signed between the USA and various countries or regions and the existence of subsidies and other forms of protection that advantage one nation's airlines over those of co-signatories to an OSA. We argue that under an oligopoly market structure, strategic competition brought about by OSAs creates incentives to subsidize and/or protect domestic airlines. Such incentives are maintained or amplified by political lobbying efforts that bias civil aviation policies towards producer interests over wider measures of economic welfare. We report on financial aid and policies which have advantaged US airlines during the OSA period and which suggest that unlevel playing fields have been made more unlevel during the era of OSAs.     

Establishment of air transport undertakings – Towards a more holistic approach

This paper addresses the issue of principal place of business. Principal place of business can be interpreted in various ways in addition to its strict legal meaning in international air law. The term establishment is also relevant because since the Open Skies decisions of the European Court of Justice of 2002, this term has been used, although not reconciled with the existing aviation law regime. The interpretation of these terms is not only an academic exercise; airlines may be able to choose their hubs in relation to the meaning of their principal place of business, and exercise traffic rights from there. The same is true for the interpretation of the term establishment. Since airlines generate about 80% of their revenues from the operation of traffic rights, the choice of criteria for the determination of the term ‘principal place of businesses’ affecting role of airports as hubs under a modernised air law regime. This has practical relevance for the conduct of a future air transport policy.     

A model of air cargo liberalization: passenger vs. all-cargo carriers

This paper employs a multi-market oligopoly model to examine the effect of cargo liberalization on competition between all-cargo carriers and mixed passenger/cargo carriers. We find that if home carriers engage in the joint production of cargo and passenger services, whereas foreign carriers produce the two outputs separately, then unilateral cargo liberalization by the home country will reduce home firm profits and increase foreign profits, and raise air fares for passenger travel when foreign competition in the passenger sector is limited. Our analysis suggests that the separation of air cargo and passenger rights might be fraught with difficulty in Asia due to the characteristics of its air cargo market, in which most passenger carriers have substantial cargo businesses and operate “combi” fleets.     

Measuring the economic effects of bilateral liberalization air transport

This paper develops a model that measures the equilibrium changes and welfare consequences of liberalizing the fare, entry and service levels of a bilateral air transport agreement. The model also provides measures of the distribution of gains and losses across the consumers and airlines of each country involved in the bilateral as well as those of any third foreign country that may be affected through traffic diversion as a result of changes in the bilateral. In our model, service quality aspects are treated in the framework of hedonic price theory by specifying the quality-adjusted price (quantity) as a multiplication of the observed price (quantity) by the reciprocal quality index function (the quality index function). The model is illustrated using the Canada–Japan bilateral to assess alternative combinations of changes to fare, frequency and entry restrictions. We report the outcomes for market share, airline profits, fares and consumer welfare.     

Aviation and the environment in the context of the EU–US Open Skies agreement

We examine the impacts of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on the environment on emissions from the aviation sector. We use the Hamburg Tourism Model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows, to estimate these impacts. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between carriers and falls in the cost of transatlantic flights. This will not only have implications for the size and structure of the industry but also for climate policy. The paper assesses what effects the expected increases in passenger numbers will have on CO₂ emissions and tests whether this increase in travel will result in a corresponding rise in emissions. Simulations show that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by between 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions because of substitution between destinations, the percentage increase in global emissions is much smaller (max. 1%) than the increase in cross-Atlantic traffic.     

Issues on liberalization of air cargo services in international aviation

This paper provides a general discussion of various issues related to the liberalization of air cargo services in international aviation. It shows that all-cargo carriers may have different routing needs than passenger carriers and thus require different sets of air traffic rights from those needed by passenger carriers. On the other hand, separation of air cargo and passenger rights will be fraught with difficulty in Asia because of distinctive characteristics of its air cargo market, where most passenger carriers have substantial cargo business and operate “combi” fleets. Customs and inter-modal transportation are also discussed in the context of cargo liberalization.     

Unintended trajectories: liberalization and the geographies of private business flight

The global commercial aviation industry has undergone significant regulatory reform during the last 30 years. This paper explores something of the relationship between air transport liberalization and the growth of private business aviation and suggests that the sector’s development is largely an unintended consequence of the increasingly deregulated operating environment in that it has developed to overcome some of liberalization’s negative impacts, including delays, congestion, and perceptions of poor customer service. We argue that liberalization has created innovative market opportunities for private business aviation and illustrate how the sector’s operating models are facilitating new, as yet largely undocumented, forms of aerial mobility. The paper examines: the advantages of private business aviation over scheduled services; business strategies in the sector, especially the idea of fractional jets; the impact of new technologies, particularly the Very Light Jet (VLJ); and, finally, employs Europe as an example of the spatialities of private business aviation.     

Maintaining competitiveness of aviation hub: Empirical evidence of visitors to China via Hong Kong by air transport

Prior studies have not extensively researched and explored the key determinants (aviation and tourism attributes) that could affect Hong Kong’s competitiveness as a transit hub for international visitors using Hong Kong as a stopover to Chinese cities when travelling by air. This study adds to that knowledge to empirically investigate Hong Kong’s eight major tourist source markets (Germany, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK, and the US), and also provides an insight to policy-makers in Hong Kong to help them understand the factors that influence Hong Kong’s aviation hub competitiveness and tourism development. The findings of the study suggest that increased air transport capacity from foreign countries and Hong Kong to China, trade volumes between China and its trading partners, air transport costs, and the global financial crisis are the key factors affecting the number of visitors to China by air passing through Hong Kong as their preferred stopover. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Airline competition on the route between Amsterdam and London

Although liberalization in European air transport business was formally completed with the implementation of the third package of the EU, today the free market effects of abandoning the bilateral system are not yet very manifest. The experiences in the United States indicate that it can last for over a decade before more or less stable competitive positions are set according to liberalized market conditions. The Amsterdam-London route was among the first routes which was liberalized on a bilateral basis. The development of airline competition on this route gives a rather good insight in what might be expected on other European routes the following years. In the ATRG paper, emphasis is laid upon the following competition characteristics: the number of airlines serving the London routes; the frequency offered by these airlines; the average aircraft size; the air fares charged. Special attention is paid to the relative attractiveness of the various airports in the Londen Area. Also the entrance of start-up carriers that offer no frills, no thrills services is covered.