外商直接投资对中国国际收支双顺差影响的分析

20世纪90年代以来,中国的国际收支呈现出经常项目和资本与金融项目顺差并存的“双顺差”特点。造成双顺差的原因有很多,其中外商直接投资（FDI）是一个重要的影响因素。运用理论和实证的分析结果表明,外商直接投资与“双顺差”之间存在着显著的因果关系,且两者之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。积极合理的利用外商直接投资,不仅有利于化解中国宏观经济的外部失衡,也有利于带动中国经济的协调发展。     

Expected Future Budget Deficits,the Real Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics in a Finite Horizon Model

This paper uses an optimizing open economy general-equilibrium model to investigate the macroeconomic effects of current and expected future budget deficits. It is shown that current and expected future budget deficits are positively correlated with the current account deficit, the capital stock and the real exchange rate, but negatively correlated with the domestic real interest rate and consumption, along the stable path approaching the steady state. The paper also demonstrates that the world real interest rate is positively correlated with consumption, foreign assets and the domestic real interest rate, but negatively correlated with the capital stock and the real exchange rate. Received April 11, 2001; revised version received October 25, 2001     

Optimal Public Debts, Sustainable Deficits, and Budgetary Consolidation

It is hardly surprising that government budgets have always been widely debated inboth the political and academic arenas as public finances in general, and the budgetin particular, reflect the political and ideological colour of the government whichruns the state. No less inevitable are academic debates on budgetary issues giventhat economics is a multi-paradigmatic science. This background makes all the moremysterious the current complete consensus on the need for budgetary consolidationand the overwhelming acceptance of the `balanced budget' principle in politics as wellas in academic economics. In the paper, this position is questioned by producing a simple model of optimal public debt, sustainable deficits and optimal budgetary consolidation. Different possible trajectories of fiscal restriction and expansion – based on a Post-Keynesian and Rational Expectations paradigm alternatively – are then being empirically tested by comparing the German and British historical accounts of public finances over the past three decades.     

资本账户开放后的居民资产组合问题

资产组合理论强调投资者应将资产分散于不同形式以降低整体风险,资本账户开放可以使居民在国际范围内调整自己的投资组合.中国目前面临着资本账户开放,在资本账户开放后我国居民的资产组合也会发生较大的变化.因此,讨论中国在资本账户开放后的居民资产组合问题具有重要的现实意义.本文就一国居民在开放资本账户后可能发生的资产组合调整进行分析,并探讨资本账户开放对中国居民的投资组合收益与风险的影响.     

Malaysia’s current account deficits: an intertemporal optimization perspective

The study examines the account imbalances in Malaysia during the past four decades. Using Sachs’s (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 859, 1982) intertemporal model, we address the issue of external solvency by measuring the deviation of actual from the optimal path of the current account balance. All in all, we found that the actual path moves reasonably close to the estimated consumption-smooth currents accounts, suggesting that the current account balances satisfy the external solvency condition. The major findings from the empirical application of the model revealed the following: (i) the deficits of the 1990s prior to 1997 financial crisis were sustainable; (ii) the evidence appears to suggest that the current account balance broadly follows the same pattern of the intertemporal model and hence suggests that capital is mobile; (iii) the large surpluses observed during the post-1997 period significantly deviate from the optimal path, implying that consumption is unsustainable and is expected to fall in the near future and; (iv) there is excessive volatility in international capital movements for consumption-smoothing purpose.      

On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007–2013)

In this study, we analyze the impact in Brazil of a tax on external capital flows called “Imposto Sobre Operações Finaceiras” (IOF), by following data on a monthly basis from 2007 to 2013. Our goal is to determine whether a change in tax legislation can produce significant effects on the pattern of financial inflows from abroad. Using univariate structural models, our results show that changes in the IOF produced structural breaks on foreign portfolio investments.     

金融发展、资本账户开放与金融不稳定——来自中国的证据

文章建立一个由金融发展程度、资本账户开放与金融不稳定指标组成的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用中国1982~2005年的年度数据对这些变量的长期协整关系和短期的调整动力学进行相关的时间序列分析。模型的估计结果显示,对于中国来说,金融发展程度、资本账户开放和金融不稳定之间存在着长期的协整关系,但三者之间的影响程度和方向各不相同。所有结果均显示,无论从短期和长期看,金融发展程度对一国的金融稳定具有显著影响,对资本账户开放的进程也具有重要的影响。     

消费行为、产出变化与经常项目动态

国内吸收法认为,当国内需求没有完全吸收其产出时,就会通过净出口产生贸易顺差.中国持续的经常项目顺差似乎与消费需求不足有关.收入是决定居民消费需求的最基本因素之一.本文通过实证分析我国居民的消费与收入变化的关系来考察我国居民的消费需求,结合国内吸收法的思想来分析我国的经常项目动态.     

Capital mobility and sustainability: Evidence from U.S. current account data

We propose an empirical framework that allows us to jointly test for the sustainability of the current account deficit and evaluate the capital mobility thesis by examining the time series properties of the current account. We argue that this approach is more useful than the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) cross-section regression because of its firm basis on the long run inter-temporal budget constraint and of its richer dynamics that allow for a more useful method to evaluate the capital mobility thesis. Based on a century and half of U.S. current account data, we find evidence of current account sustainability and major breaks in the current account dynamics such that adjustment in the current account switches off allowing the current account to accumulate at a non-stationary rate. We assess whether periods in which the current account accumulates in a non-stationary way correspond to historical periods believed to have witnessed high degree of capital mobility.First version received: June 2003/ Final version received: January 2004     

Current account balance cyclicality

We assess the cyclicality of current account balances for the period 2001Q1–2014Q4, focusing on Portugal and using Germany as a benchmark. We find that the cyclical component of the current account was positively explained by 3-month Euribor, but negatively by the financial crisis, systemic stress in Europe, employment and compensation of employees. Moreover, the noncyclical current account was positively affected by the period of the economic and financial adjustment programme and the terms of trade, but negatively influenced by financial integration.     

Deficits for the Rich: Inequality and Instability

Abstract

Deficit spending has long been understood as a stabilizing counter-cyclical force. The thesis presented herein is that over recent decades, the cumulative deficits of government and non-corporate entities have expanded the inequality of wealth and income, which, over the long haul, contributes to slow growth and potential instability. The thesis builds on the Kaleckian-Minsky insight that deficits create gross profits in excess of new investment expenditures (free cash). Since the 1980s, this free cash has been spilled in the stock market through mergers, dividends and stock buybacks—worsening inequality. As the upper classes have a larger range of discretionary spending options, this expanded inequality has made for more spending volatility and speculative endeavors. The authors call for expanded taxes on the rich to claim the deficit-generated free cash. Such taxes would be in the service of more stability and equity.     

Is the Current Account Deficit Sustainable?

This article argues that Australia's savings behaviour relative to its investment opportunities ensures a structural current account deficit which is fundamentally sustainable. In fact considerable scope seems to exist for it to widen further, irrespective of fiscal tightening that has occurred during the last few years, without alarming macroeconomic consequences.     

中国资本账户开放及金融稳定

本文针对中国资本账户开放及金融现状进行分析.结论提示,目前,中国资本账户的开放步伐会渐进加速;中国的金融发展程度在逐渐提高的大背景下,这几年会出现一定程度的回调;中国金融体系中存在着大量的不稳定因素,从2002年开始,金融稳定状况开始出现一定程度的恶化,但目前发生系统性金融危机的可能性还较小.     

查账、会计检查与审计——三者概念关系剖析

会计、审计理论界和实务界对查账、会计检查与审计的概念及其关系仍有许多不同的理解和看法。事实上,查账、会计检查与审计三者之间既有深刻的联系又有很大的区别。从历史、辨证和唯物观等角度对它们的性质、职能、目标、作用以及评价标准和使用范围等进行剖析,能更准确地理解各自的内涵,把握它们之间的相互关系,正确地把它们运用于实践。     

中国资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化

开放经济下,资本流动、利率和汇率三者相互联动、相互协调、自动平衡。利率市场化是资本账户开放和汇率制度弹性化的前提条件;资本控制程度影响利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化;利率和汇率相互作用、相互传导。一国宏观经济调控政策的效果不仅仅取决于资本控制程度和利率或汇率水平的变动,更取决于资本控制、利率和汇率三者的联动效应。中国金融自由化改革进程中,必须正确处理好资本账户开放、利率市场化和汇率制度弹性化之间的关系,发挥三者联动协同效应,实现内外均衡。     

Financial and Capital Account Liberalization,Financial Development and Economic Development: A Review of Some Recent Contributions

Abstract

This article presents a review of some recent contributions on the relation between global finance and economic development in emerging economies. It first, stresses the growing consensus among economists on the financial instability that financial and capital account liberalization can possibly cause in emerging economies. It then outlines and compares two alternative strategies to tame such instability. The comparison is between the “good-institutions need-to-come-first” approach put forward by some mainstream economists, and the request for a deeper reform of the existing monetary system advocated by heterodox economists.     

财政赤字与经济增长的定量研究

本文通过定量分析指出,财政赤字的增加能否引发通货膨胀关键在于所采取的弥补方式,若采用国债作为弥补方式,则所引起的通货膨胀率小于0.001,同时每一亿元国债将使国内生产总值增加国内生产总值/货币供应量(M1)亿元(1990-2000年的收益均值为1.97亿元);若向银行透支来弥补赤字,其效果大部分为通货膨胀所抵消,每一亿元赤字只能使国内生产总值增加0.67亿元.     

Current Account, Capital Formation and Terms of Trade Shocks: a Revisit of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect

This paper extends the Blanchard model of a closed-economy to a three-good (exportable, importable and non-tradable goods) open-economy model with capital accumulation and uncertain lifetimes to study the impacts of terms of trade shocks on the current account. The simulation results show that a model with uncertain lifetimes is more appropriate to describe a small open economy like Taiwan at the steady-state equilibrium than a model with infinite lifetimes. We find that the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect is discernible for temporary or permanent terms of trade shocks. Furthermore, the steady state is a saddle point and the speed of convergence of capital and consumption is quite low.     

从中美贸易差额观察我国经常项目失衡

对我国经常项目的持续顺差的解释一般是从人民币汇率低估、国民高储蓄率、大量FDI流入和过分优惠的对外资政策等方面来进行.本文认为在这些因素后面的一个共同原因是我国金融体系的不发达.在从理论上和国际经验上对金融发展和经常项目之间的关系进行说明后,本文进一步研究了我国不发达的金融体系对经常项目顺差影响的具体机制,并认为只有深化金融体制改革,大力发展我国金融业才能促进内外经济的和谐发展.     

Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates

This paper examines the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate and fiscal deficits in a continuous time optimizing general equilibrium model with OLG. It is shown that alternative financing modes of budget deficits imply different patterns of adjustment along the transitional path towards the steady-state equilibrium. In particular, the respect of public solvency without money financing is not sufficient to avoid the depreciation of the exchange rate in the long-run after a fiscal expansion. In addition, money and tax financing generate opposite intergenerational reallocation of wealth.