The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan

This paper examines the congressional effect between the pre- and post-democratization on the stock market by the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosce desticity (GARCH) model in the period 1984–2004. The results found that the congressional effect is negative effect on stock returns but volatility is not significant. However, the democratic effect on stock returns is negative and increased of volatility. Moreover, the congressional effect on stock market returns following democratization significantly exceeds that before democratization, but have no significant effect for the volatility in the same circumstances. These results provide evidences consistent with the contention of liberalization (Hayek, Am. Econ. Rev. 35, 519–530, Individualism and Economic order, The university of Chicago press, Chicago, London, 1945, 1948; Popper, The open society and its Enemies, Princeton university, NJ, 1950).     

An empirical analysis of cross-security information asymmetry and the “pecking order” hypothesis

This paper suggests that any examination of the “pecking order” hypothesis must consider the possibility that a firm's level of information asymmetry is related to the type of security it issues. The empirical results show that, on average, firms issuing common stock exhibit higher information asymmetry levels (as proxied by financial analysts' earnings forecast errors) than do firms issuing debt. However, after controlling for information asymmetry, abnormal returns to common stock announcements remain significantly less than those of debt issues which supports the existence of a “pecking order” in capital procurement.     

Performance persistence of fixed income mutual funds

The “winner-winner, winner-loser, gone” methodology allows tests for short-term performance persistence for government and corporate fixed income mutual funds from 1990 to 1999. Persistence occurs when “winner” (loser) funds remain “winner” (loser) funds. If intermediate-term (long-term) bond returns are higher than long-term (intermediate-term) bond returns for successive years, the z-statistic is positive. Persistence is negative in the opposite case, and the pattern holds for longer lag periods. Statistical significance and consistency between the sign of persistence and bond returns indicates persistent returns on bond funds, but the nature of persistence is driven by changes in interest rates. The authors would like to acknowledge the research assistance of Michael Serra and Michael Wieczorek. This research was supported in part by the McDonough School of Business and the Capital Markets Research Center at Georgetown University.     

Inflation, output, and stock prices: Evidence from two major emerging markets

Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies. The present study investigates this relationship for Korea and Mexico. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity. Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify that the long-run equilibrium between stock prices and general price levels is weak. However, in both economies, stock prices and general price levels seem to show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity. This paper benefited from the constructive suggestions of an anonymous referee. The remaining errors are the authors’ responsibility. Financial support from the Dr. Robert B. Pamplin, Jr., School of Business Administration, University of Portland, is greatly appreciated.     

Keeping Work in Perspective: Work–Nonwork Considerations and Applicant Decision Making

The work–nonwork supportiveness of an organization may influence applicant decision making among young applicants. This possibility was tested using a phased narrowing decision making task and three organizational attributes (salary, number of work–nonwork supportive policies/benefits and their related culture supportiveness). Data gathered from a sample of 110 graduating college business majors partially supported the hypotheses (p < 0.05), revealing a dynamic influence of the organizational attributes across decision making stages and a differential impact of the attributes depending on their framing as family-friendly or life-friendly. Salary was especially important in initial screening of organizational options, and the organizational culture support of work–nonwork challenges was increasingly influential as the final choice was formed. Implications for young applicant attraction are discussed. The research presented here (a portion of the author’s master’s thesis at Bowling Green State University) was presented at the 2006 Annual Conference of the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology in Dallas, TX. Thanks go to Dr. Steve M. Jex, Dr. Scott Highhouse, and Dr. Cathy Stein for their assistance in the development of this study. Thanks are also owed to Dr. Michael Doherty for his thoughtful comments on an earlier draft.     

Stochastic volatility models: conditional normality versus heavy‐tailed distributions

Most of the empirical applications of the stochastic volatility (SV) model are based on the assumption that the conditional distribution of returns, given the latent volatility process, is normal. In this paper, the SV model based on a conditional normal distribution is compared with SV specifications using conditional heavy‐tailed distributions, especially Student's t‐distribution and the generalized error distribution. To estimate the SV specifications, a simulated maximum likelihood approach is applied. The results based on daily data on exchange rates and stock returns reveal that the SV model with a conditional normal distribution does not adequately account for the two following empirical facts simultaneously: the leptokurtic distribution of the returns and the low but slowly decaying autocorrelation functions of the squared returns. It is shown that these empirical facts are more adequately captured by an SV model with a conditional heavy‐tailed distribution. It also turns out that the choice of the conditional distribution has systematic effects on the parameter estimates of the volatility process. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stock returns and volatility: Evidence from the Athens Stock market index

This paper investigates the volatility of the Athens Stock excess stock returns over the period 1990–1999 through the comparison of various conditional hetero-skedasticity models. The empirical results indicate that there is significant evidence for asymmetry in stock returns, which is captured by a quadratic GARCH specification model, while there is strong persistence of shocks into volatility.     

Autocorrelation,return horizons,and momentum in stock returns

In this study we examine Lewellen’s (Rev Financ Stud 15:533–563 2002) claim that momentum in stock returns is not due to positive autocorrelation as behavioral models suggest. Using portfolio-specific data, we find the autocovariance component of the momentum profit to be negative, suggesting no return continuations. However, we also find that the autocorrelations calculated from short-term (e.g., monthly) returns are quite different from long-horizon (e.g., annual) autocorrelations. While the first-order autocorrelations of 6– and 12-month returns tend to be negative, the autocorrelations across twelve lags in monthly returns of the industry, size, and B/M portfolios are in general positive. Our results show that these portfolios exhibit return continuations when returns are measured on a monthly basis. Therefore, our finding appears to be consistent with the behavioral models, which suggest positive autocorrelation in stock returns.     

The relationship between information technology capability,inventory efficiency,and shareholder wealth: A firm-level empirical analysis

Inventories represent an important strategic resource for firms, with implications for shareholder wealth. As such, firms expend considerable effort in managing their inventories efficiently. Among other factors, information technology (IT) capability can play an important role in enabling inventory efficiency and financial performance. However, insight into the chain-of-effects linking IT capability, inventory efficiency, and stock market returns and risk remains limited. In this paper, we provide a conceptual model outlining the relationships between these constructs. Next, we evaluate the model using secondary information on firms from multiple industries across the 10-year time period of 2000–2009. Our analysis confirms that firms’ IT capability plays a significant role in enhancing their inventory efficiency, which, in turn, is observed to increase stock market returns. Our results also reveal that firms’ IT capability directly reduces their stock market risk and enhances their stock market returns. Taken together, these findings, along with the conceptual model that we advance, have important research and managerial implications.     

Stock Prices and the Real Economy: Power Law versus Exponential Distributions

This paper explores the relationship between the stock prices and the real economy. The standard approach – the so called consumption-based asset pricing model – attempts to explain it based on the assumption of the representative agent. In this paper, we argue that the representative agent assumption is fundamentally flawed. Drawing on the recent advancement of “econophysics” on financial markets See Mantegna and Stanley (An Introduction to econophysics: correlations and complexity in finance, 2000) for the introduction to econophysics, we argue that in contrast to the neoclassical view, there is in fact a wedge between financial markets, the stock prices in particular, and the real economy.     

Notes and Comments: An approximation of caplet implied volatilities in Gaussian models

Abstract It is market practice to quote interest rate derivatives traded “over the counter” in terms of their implied volatility. For this reason, the term structure of at-the-money cap volatilities as well as the volatility surface of at-the-money swaptions are directly observed. This paper analyzes the case of caps. Any analysis of these markets would most likely report two main facts. The first is that the level of the volatility is inversely related to the level of the interest rates. The second is that the term structure is either a decreasing or a humped function of maturity. For a reference, see Rebonato (2003) and Brigo and Mercurio (2001). Rebonato (2003) suggests that the structure of implied volatility is humped in periods of normal market conditions and decreasing when markets are “excited”. Interpreting and explaining such phenomena is indeed an interesting and important issue. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B70 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: E43, C13     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

Abtract  This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. Howerver, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

Towards an intelligent country: China’s higher education expansion and rural children’s senior high school participation

Colleges in China were instructed to massively expand their enrollment beginning in 1999, an event referred to as China’s Higher Education Expansion (HEE). As the HEE explicitly enlarged the share of high-skilled labor, there may be a potential positive effect of the HHE on rural children’s willingness to enter senior high schools. This is because their chances to get into colleges are improved. This study found that, after controlling for other observable factors, the probability for rural eligible individuals to participate in senior high schools increased by 0.18 more than their urban counterparts from 2000 to 2005, and this result was indeed caused by the HHE via increased expected gains. Based on the empirical results, the expected returns to education are proven to be critical in educational decisions. To build an intelligent country, the government should raise returns to education by reforming the educational supply and eliminating the distortions and misallocations that depress returns to education.     

Odds-setting efficiency in gambling markets: Evidence from the PGA TOUR

This paper describes the gambling market for PGA TOUR events for the 2002 season. The extent to which the odds predict the outcome is examined, illustrating how much information is captured in the odds and whether there are any identifiable biases in the odds. The overall implied profit to the casino is calculated as well as the returns to several naive betting strategies. By splitting the sample based on whether or not Tiger Woods is in the tournament, a “Tiger Woods effect” or a “thin market versus thick market effect” can be examined. On the whole, efficient markets propositions hold up, but the overwhelming share of the variation in the tournament outcome remains unexplained.     

The day of the week effect on stock market volatility

This study tests the presence of the day of the week effect on stock market volatility by using the S&P 500 market index during the period of January 1973 and October 1997. The findings shown that the day of the week effect is present in both volatility and return equations. While the highest and lowest returns are observed on Wednesday and Monday, the highest and the lowest volatility are observed on Friday and Wednesday, respectively. Further investigation of sub-periods reinforces our findings that the volatility pattern across the days of the week is statistically different.(JEL G10, G12, C22)     

Portfolio Selection under Maximum Minimum Criterion

In this paper, we studied the problem of risky portfolio selection under uncertainty. Different from risk-return analytical methodology, we formulated a model under maximum minimal criterion of uncertain decision-making theory. If the investor had no any distribution information of the returns and (s)he knew the variation scopes of the returns by his/her knowledge of the market information or experts’ evaluations of the alternative risky assets, then we showed that the optimal portfolio strategy of the model under maximal minimal criterion could be obtained by solving linear programming. If the returns were known to be normal distributed, the investor’s optimal portfolio strategy could be obtained by solving a nonlinear programming. The paper also provided an algorithm to solve this programming. At last, the paper compared this model with Markowitz’s mean-varience (M-V) model and Young’s minmax model, and pointed out the distinctions and similarities between our model and the other two. Supported in part by Program for NCET, in part by the Key Project of Chinese Ministry of Education 104053.     

On economies of scope in communication

A classic puzzle in the economic theory of the firm concerns the fundamental cause of decreasing returns to scale. If a plant producing product quantityX at costC can be replicated as often as desired, then the quantityrX need never cost more thanrC. Traditionally the firm is imagined to take its identity from a fixednon-replicable input, namely a ‘top manager’; as more plants or divisions are added, the communication and computation burden imposed on the top manager (who has information not possessed by the divisions) grows more than proportionately. Decreasing returns are experienced as the top manager hires more variable inputs to cope with the rising burden. Suppose it turns out, however, that when the divisions are assembled, and are given exactly the same totally independent tasks that they fulfilled when they were autonomous, then asaving can be achieved if they adopt a joint procedure for performing those tasks rather than replicating their previous separate procedures. Then the top manager's rising burden must be shown to be particularly onerous—otherwise there may actually beincreasing returns. We show that for a certain model of the information-processing procedure used by the separate divisions and by the firm, there may indeed be such an odd unexpected saving. The saving occurs with respect to the size of the language in which members of each division, or of the firm, communicate with one another, provided that language is finite. If instead the language is a continuum then the saving cannot occur, provided that the procedures used obey suitable ‘smoothness’ conditions. We show that the saving for the finite case can be ruled out in two ways: by requiring the procedures used to obey a regularity condition that is a crude analogue of the smoothness conditions we impose on the continuum procedures, or by insisting that the procedure used be a ‘deterministic’ protocol. Such a protocol prescribes a conversation among the participants, in which a participant has only one choice, whenever that participant has to make an announcement to the others. The results suggest that a variety of information-processing models will have to be studied before the traditional explanation for decreasing returns to scale is understood in a rigorous way.     

About probability-like measures for entire theories

5. Summary It is discursively argued that a much closer rapport between the methodologies implicitly taught in Economic Theory and in Statistics is required and that the necessary interdisciplinary bridge can be provided, and clarification attained, through the study of logical measure functions of theKemeny-Carnap type. It is also argued that subjectivistic axiom systems of probability, while valuable in their own right and as bases for behavior theories, cannot by themselves render the study of logical measure functions superfluous. Elementary aspects of these functions are then explained, with somewhat more detailed references toKemeny’s measuresm ands and a proposed degree-of-theoretization measure, whose applicability to economics is negatively appraised. Finally,Carnap’s degree-of-confirmation functions are briefly dealt with, but throughout the paper the emphasis is on those properties of logical measure functions which donot primarily bear on statistical inference and estimation). “...I think, on the whole, one theory fits nearly everything. That is, if you admit one coincidence—and I think one coincidence is allowable. More than one, of course, is unlikely ...” Prof. Dr. E. M. Fels, 2126 CL, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh 13, Penna., USA. The Murder at the Vicarage. New York: Dell, 1961, p. 197 (Dodd, Mead & Co., 1930).     

Goodness of Fit for Discrete Random Variables Using the Conditional Density

In this paper we find a new test of goodness of fit in the case of discrete random variables. The main advantage of the methodology proposed in this paper relies on the fact that given the sample, we can control the probability of the type I error, that is α, and then find the exact value of the probability of the type II error, β, associated, in some cases. The results are not asymptotic, but exact. Also a conditional test for two alternatives is obtained. We also include some simulations in order to check the power of the procedures.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000) Primary 62G10 · 62B05 · Secondary 62E10     

Jumps in cross‐sectional rank and expected returns: a mixture model

We propose a new nonlinear time series model of expected returns based on the dynamics of the cross‐sectional rank of realized returns. We model the joint dynamics of a sharp jump in the cross‐sectional rank and the asset return by analyzing (1) the marginal probability distribution of a jump in the cross‐sectional rank within the context of a duration model, and (2) the probability distribution of the asset return conditional on a jump, for which we specify different dynamics depending upon whether or not a jump has taken place. As a result, the expected returns are generated by a mixture of normal distributions weighted by the probability of jumping. The model is estimated for the weekly returns of the constituents of the SP500 index from 1990 to 2000, and its performance is assessed in an out‐of‐sample exercise from 2001 to 2005. Based on the one‐step‐ahead forecast of the mixture model we propose a trading rule, which is evaluated according to several forecast evaluation criteria and compared to 18 alternative trading rules. We find that the proposed trading strategy is the dominant rule by providing superior risk‐adjusted mean trading returns and accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.