浅谈灾害评估

长期以来，我国的灾情都是粗略估计出来的，没有统一的标准和规范化的计算方法。因此，对防灾、减灾的决策和对策带来不利的影响。灾害评估是一项非常复杂的工作，它可按性质、时间和内容分类。处理灾害评估的方法也多种多样。几千年来，历代王朝都不同程度地进行了灾害评估。然而系统地、科学地、现代化的灾害评估，也可以说，在我国还是刚刚起步。     

气象灾害防御和应对气候变化

人类与自然的和谐相处是一种必然选择.但是,伴随着工业化进程,极端天气、气候事件的增加,给世界和我国经济社会带来了巨大的负面影响.研究表明,气象灾害对我国造成的直接经济损失相当于GDP的3％至6％,而气象灾害引发的生命、环境、社会、人文、经济等灾害所造成的损失更是难以估量.     

黑龙江城镇气象防灾减灾体系的建设与探索

气象灾害对黑龙江社会发展以及经济发展造成了很大损失,所以对黑龙江城镇气象防灾减灾体系作出有效的构建与完善,对于提高黑龙江省气象灾害防御水平与能力具有重要意义。本文在对黑龙江省城镇气象灾害特点作出分析的基础上,从宣传机制、信息预报机制、部门合作机制、气象预报机制以及资金保障机制五个方面对黑龙江省城镇气象防灾减灾体系的构建与完善进行了研究与探讨。     

对我市雷击分析与整改措施的探讨

雷电灾害早已经被联合国有关部门列为"最严重的十种自然灾害之一",同时也被中国国防电工委员会称为"电子时代的一大公害"。近年来,我市雷电灾害频发,给人民群众带来很直接和间接的损失十分惨重。防御雷电灾害问题已引起了雷州市各级政府和社会各界的高度关注。本文针对雷州市雷击现象频繁发生,探讨雷州市雷击现象的分析以及整改措施。防范于未然,将人民生命和国家财产损失降低到最小程度。     

城市灾害应急预案基本要素探讨

目前,城市灾害管理正在逐渐受到各级政府的重视,为了有效地减轻城市灾害的损失,一些大中城市开始制定灾害应急预案.然而,在应该制定什么样的城市应急预案才能真正在救灾抢险中发挥最大作用等方面仍缺少必要的论证和探讨.文章从政府灾害应急救灾的基本程序入手,对城市灾害应急预案的基本要素进行了探讨,提出了城市灾害预测评价和防灾规划是制定城市灾害应急预案的基础,而灾害应急指挥系统、灾害情报体系、救灾抢险体系、应急医疗体系、应急避难体系和交通管理体系六大主要因素构成了城市灾害应急预案的基本要素.     

我国农业灾害保险补偿机制研究

我国是一个农业大国,又是一个自然灾害多发国。近几年由于自然灾害造成的损失,尤其是对农业生产造成的损失尤为严重。传统的风险补偿机制不仅无法弥补灾害损失,还会严重影响整个经济和社会的发展。通过分析我国农业灾害的损失情况,指出农业灾害保险补偿机制具有的重要意义。     

住房公积金重大突发灾害应对制度构想——从汶川地震说起

这次汶川地震对住房公积金管理提出了一个课题：今后的住房公积金管理中，如何建立有效的重大突发灾害风险应对制度，减少灾害损失？一、重大灾害中住房公积金管理面对的主要问题重大灾害造成的损失是多方面的，首先是人，其次是财、物。住房公积金制度是一项关于人、财、物的制度，但就业务来讲，关键有以下两方面：     

安徽省雨雪冰冻灾害对森林资源的损毁分析及森林生态系统恢复措施

2008年元月初至2月上旬,安徽省遭受五十年一遇的雨雪冰冻灾害,森林资源大面积受灾,部分县(区、市)损失惨重。我省对17个地市94个受灾县开展了雨雪冰冻灾害森林资源损失调查评估工作,全面客观地掌握了雨雪冰冻灾害对森林资源造成损失的情况。本文对雨雪冰冻灾害造成森林资源损失的原因进行了客观分析并对灾后森林生态系统的恢复提出了具体的措施、对策和建议,为今后指导林业生产和深入研究林木抗灾能力提供重要依据。     

电子时代直面雷电袭击

<正>风云难测,雷电无情,随着人类迈入信息社会,大量的电子、电器、电脑、网络产品进入家庭,雷电灾害发生的范围越来越广,损失越来越大。雷电灾害被联合国列为最严重的十大自然灾害之一,是     

我国天气保险业应对气象灾害的长远发展策略研究

依据我国近年来气象灾害状况的数据统计显示,长期的异常气候事件将更频繁发生且损失程度增加,这将直接考验保险业的风险承担及应变能力。为应对气候变迁所致影响,保险业可投入资源研究气候变迁及碳排放权、后期清洁技术、可再生能源和其它温室气体缓解的技术相关保险项目,以协助个人及企业进行气候风险管理。     

大力发展农业保险,助力国民经济增长

我国农业灾害严重,每年造成的巨大的经济损失给农民和国家带来巨大的压力。对我国的农业受灾情况进行描述,同时指出我国农业灾害保险发展缓慢,农业保险作用低下的原因。基于以上两个方面,确定由国家参与的农业保险经营模式。     

The risk impacts of global natural and technological disasters

This research develops an expected risk model and estimates risk impacts of single or multiple disasters in terms of human fatality, injury, affected, and economic damage for nearly 200 nations. Both natural hazards, including geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, and technological disasters, such as industrial, transport, and structural, are considered. Relevant measures of expected risk, such as standard deviation, coefficient of variance, range, and rank are also calculated to assess a country's overall risk. Social-economic-physical factors from the World Development Index developed by the United Nations (UN) are then regressed with occurrences and risks of natural and tech disasters to seek plausible associations. The results show that (1) the model performs reasonably well in fitting observed and modeled risks and risk impacts, relatively better for natural disaster and affected people and economic damage; (2) while natural disasters are far more risky than tech ones in total risk impacts; specific risks for subgroups of natural or tech disasters vary widely in magnitude and by country; (3) high natural and/or tech risks concentrate in a small number of countries, such as China, India, Bangladesh in Asia; U.S., Mexico, Canada in North America; Turkey, Russia, France, Germany in Europe, and Algeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia in Africa, which are relatively large in population, fast in development, or advanced in industrialization; yet (4) high risk deviations per unit risk impacts reveal that many small, developing, and tech backward countries need to prepare even more for both natural and tech disasters. Finally, (5) while many country-level development factors, together with disaster occurrence, are statistically significant, only some can provide weak predictability of disaster risk impacts under robust regression. The research findings provide useful risk references to countries for resilient national policies for disaster preparation, mitigation, and recovery.     

积极发展我国保险业,提升灾害应急管理能力

我国是世界上遭受自然灾害最严重的国家,每年造成的经济损失都给国家财政带来了巨大的压力。对我国目前面临的自然灾害造成的经济损失情况进行了总体的描述;同时也总结了我国的巨灾保险发展现状:市场的力量没有充分发挥、公众保险意识不强、保险中存在相当的技术障碍。基于以上两大方面,提出建立以政府为主导的巨灾保险模式。     

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional input–output models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses.     

Dynamic inoperability input-output modeling for economic losses estimation in industries during flooding

Among all natural disasters, flood stands as a recurrently happening disaster. It holds the aptitude to disrupt the organizations and to cause absenteeism of the workforce in industries. As the workforce is directly involve in the functioning of industries, work force absenteeism can cause reduced production and inoperability which outcomes in financial losses of industrial sectors. This research objects to estimate inoperability of industries due to distraction of workers by incorporating Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model (DIIM). Economic losses are determined from inoperability. Industrial area which is selected for the research includes local industries in Peshawar, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Various industries are chosen and are ordered according to inoperability and economic losses. Industries having highest financial damages are: (i) Agriculture; (ii) Sugar mills; and (iii) Marble industry. These three industries hold liable for 40.6% of the overall financial losses of fifteen industries. Industries suffering from highest inoperability include (i) Sugar mills; (ii) Agriculture and (iii) Marble industry. A risk analysis frame work has also been developed to help industrial sectors to recover after a disaster. Besides, data of three different floods has also been taken for the above mentioned critical sectors to plot probability distributions for predicting economic losses of most frequent floods. Furthermore, this research methodology has been applied to flooding but it can be applied to any other disaster, everywhere.     

Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate

World markets are highly interlinked and local economies extensively rely on global supply and value chains. Consequently, local production disruptions, for instance caused by extreme weather events, are likely to induce indirect losses along supply chains with potentially global repercussions. These complex loss dynamics represent a challenge for comprehensive disaster risk assessments. Here, we introduce the numerical agent-based model acclimate designed to analyze the cascading of economic losses in the global supply network. Using national sectors as agents, we apply the model to study the global propagation of losses induced by stylized disasters. We find that indirect losses can become comparable in size to direct ones, but can be efficiently mitigated by warehousing and idle capacities. Consequently, a comprehensive risk assessment cannot focus solely on first-tier suppliers, but has to take the whole supply chain into account. To render the supply network climate-proof, national adaptation policies have to be complemented by international adaptation efforts. In that regard, our model can be employed to assess reasonable leverage points and to identify dynamic bottlenecks inaccessible to static analyses.     

中国行业层面研究与试验发展资本存量核算

研究目标：测算中国八大行业门类研究与试验发展（Research and Development,R&D）资本存量。研究方法：基于SNA2008的GDP核算框架,厘清R&D支出的资本化核算框架;再利用美国BEA方法测算R&D资本存量。研究发现：1990~2015年,中国R&D资本存量不到美国R&D资本存量的1/4;然而,自1994年后,中国R&D资本存量年均增长率达24.79%,而美国仅为4.86%,中美两国R&D资本存量差距呈逐渐缩小趋势;制造业R&D资本存量占全国R&D资本存量的比例呈上升趋势,从1990年的17.41%增长到2015年的68.08%,这与中国加快制造业转型升级的事实相符。研究创新：给出完整的R&D支出资本化核算过程,首次测算中国八大行业门类的R&D资本存量。研究价值：为分析技术进步对经济增长的影响提供了行业层面R&D投资和资本存量数据序列。     

中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度分析：基于产权的视角

研究目标：借鉴马克思及西方产权理论主要思想,研究揭示中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度选择及经验。研究方法：基于产权理论对经济事实进行逻辑推演,并采用1978~2012年中国农村统计数据进行检验。研究发现：中国农村特色扶贫开发道路主要体现在农村资源（土地和人力）的产权制度改革上,由此形成的资源产权激励效应和正向扩散效应,正是中国农村人口发生大规模减贫的最重要原因及主要经验,并构成了中国特色社会主义制度的一部分。研究创新：本文基于产权理论的研究为减贫提供一个新的微观制度视角解释。研究价值：总结提炼中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的一般性理论经验,对今后减贫事业推进具有借鉴意义。     

改革开放以来中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异

研究目标：研究中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异。研究方法：基于中国1978~2014年的省级面板数据,采用超越对数形式的随机前沿模型进行分析。研究发现：在经济转型期,市场化改革与对外开放的发展是中国出口增长的首要推动力;在“入世”准备期,中国出口增长由制度因素、物质要素投入协同推动;在“入世”增长期,物质要素投入成为中国出口增长的首要来源;在全球引擎期,物质要素投入协同贸易潜力主导中国出口贸易的发展;地区间出口贸易差距主要源于贸易潜力、资本与制度因素的三重差异。研究创新：对改革开放以来至2008年金融危机以后中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进进行系统研究。研究价值：针对中国贸易可持续发展面临的主要挑战,提供政策建议。