An update on Bayesian updating

This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker–DeGroot–Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.     

An update on economies of scale in credit unions

When employing the Benston-Bell-Murphy cost specification, most studies on economies of scale in financial institutions have consistently found small, yet significant economies. However, when a similar approach on credit unions was used, the results were conflicting. This paper, through the use of a different methodological and statistical approach, provides additional evidence on the existence of economies of scale in credit unions.     

An update on the future of Medicare in Canada

In Canada, as in most other nations, the health care system faces many challenges. The experience of New Brunswick may foreshadow changes to come.     

Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update

We update [13] and [Rose and Spiegel, 2010] and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the “Great Recession” of 2008–09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.     

农村土地使用权流转的实施方案

农村土地使用权流转问题的提出改革开放以来,农村实行家庭联产承包责任制,明确了集体和农户的责权利关系,农业的生产效率得到了较大提高,农民大都迈进了小康生活。但随着市场经济的深入发展和农民经济观念的转变,目前,在全国许多地区出现土地低效率耕作甚至荒芜现象。究其原因:①在市场经济的大环境中,农民受经济利益的驱使。从农村个人收益看,1997年外出务工或从事非农产业的农民人均收入为4600多元,而农村居民家庭人均总收入为2999.2元,农业中传统耕种业的比较收益明显偏低。在经济利益的驱动下,许多农村青壮年劳动力大量外出务工或从事非…     

浅议特许经营的几个法律问题

近年来,我国特许经营发展迅速,在服务民生、促进消费、拉动民间投资、带动就业等方面起了重要作用。但是,特许经营作为逐渐兴起的一种新的经营方式,它的出现对传统的民商法理论造成了冲击。结合特许经营的特点,分析了特许经营的外部法律关系和内部法律关系、特许人与受许人的关系、特许经营权的法律性质等问题。     

An analysis of the effect of the economic situation on modeling and forecasting the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland

In this paper, the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland is studied. The objectives are to find factors which have affected the diffusion process and to forecast the diffusion of wireless communications in Finland. The diffusion process is based on the epidemic diffusion theory. The data consists of annual wireless subscribers of networks based on Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) and Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) standards in 1981-1998. The data is fitted into the logistic model by means of nonlinear least squares after writing two parameters of the logistic model as functions of certain variables. The results show that the economic situation has affected the relative growth rate, and that the wireless network coverage has affected the number of potential adopters. By extrapolating the logistic model, a forecast with a confidence interval of wireless communications subscriber rates in Finland is made. The forecast shows that the final penetration rate will be some 91.7% in 2009. The model predicts the actual figures of year 1999 very accurately. Finally, the time derivatives of the diffusion process are analyzed; they clarify the effect of economic situation on the diffusion.     

十五前期外商对华直接投资变动趋势

进入21世纪以来,国际直接投资正在以惊人的速度大量涌入中国,中国正在成为跨国公司全球分工体系中的重要环节,中国作为全球加工制造业生产基地和消费市场的地位明显增强。越来越多地跨国公司把中国纳入到其全球化战略中,成为其全球性生产和采购链条中的重要部分,中国作为跨国投     

An analysis of factors improving technology roadmap credibility: A communications theory assessment of roadmapping processes

In recent years, many industrial firms have been able to use roadmapping as an effective process methodology for projecting future technology and for coordinating technology planning and strategy. Firms potentially realize a number of benefits in deploying technology roadmapping (TRM) processes. Roadmaps provide information identifying which new technologies will meet firms' future product demands, allowing companies to leverage R&D investments through choosing appropriately out of a range of alternative technologies. Moreover, the roadmapping process serves an important communication tool helping to bring about consensus among roadmap developers, as well as between participants brought in during the development process, who may communicate their understanding of shared corporate goals through the roadmap. However, there are few conceptual accounts or case studies have made the argument that roadmapping processes may be used effectively as communication tools. This paper, therefore, seeks to elaborate a theoretical foundation for identifying the factors that must be considered in setting up a roadmap and for analyzing the effect of these factors on technology roadmap credibility as perceived by its users. Based on the survey results of 120 different R&D units, this empirical study found that firms need to explore further how they can enable frequent interactions between the TRM development team and TRM participants. A high level of interaction will improve the credibility of a TRM, with communication channels selected by the organization also positively affecting TRM credibility.     

Beyond Kyoto, plan B: A climate policy master plan based on transparent metrics

Many scholars analyze the Kyoto–Copenhagen process, and offer corrective suggestions for identified flaws in the present design. Based on various proposals in the literature, this article adopts a global master-plan perspective, leaving executive architecture to sovereign participants. Transparent, flexible and fair top-down rules must synchronize the numerous bottom-up initiatives while addressing the diversity of national circumstances in the drastic transformation of the world's energy economies.Plan B refutes absolute emission reduction targets on old or speculative baselines. It criticizes global tax and permit trade instruments for being ineffective, inefficient and unfair when uniformly applied on a tremendous differentiated world. Plan B is built on three annually observed variables measuring percentage progress against rolling baselines (the variables' values in the previous year): the ratio of net climate tax revenues to GDP, the commercial energy intensity of GDP, and the carbon intensity of commercial energy use. The three variables together indicate countries' progress affecting emissions per person, a metric that must converge to lower bands when climate change is addressed seriously. Long-term scenarios of global convergence “funnels” serve as guidance to frame near-term actions rich and poor countries individually propose to take. The global regime is common for all countries, and is ranked by GDP per person to determine whether a nation is a donor or a beneficiary in a Global Climate Transfer Fund. Fund payments and drawing rights depend on that ranking but also on the performances of the countries in realizing committed progress. The transparent mechanisms of the design and of the fund persuasively invite countries to participate in a fair, self-enforcing agreement.     

The U.S. allowance trading system for sulfur dioxide: An update on market experience

In 1990, the U.S. Congress passed legislation that amended the Clean Air Act to create a new program to mitigate the effects of acid deposition in the U.S. through emission reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) at electric utility plants across the country. The SO₂ reductions, totalling a 40% reduction nationally from 1980 levels or a 10 million ton reduction annually, are achieved largely through an emission trading system, the largest program of its kind designed to date. This trading system has the potential to save up to half of the compliance costs associated with more traditional source-by-source emission limit programs.This paper briefly discusses background on the acid rain issue in the United States, and the principal features of the program, including: a permanent cap on utility emissions of SO₂ beginning in 2010, decision to grant up-front allocation of emission credits to reduce individual approvals of trades, the use of continuous emission monitors and automatic penalties to ensure compliance, and integration of the Acid Rain program requirements with other Clean Air Act programs. The paper also discusses the development of the allowance trading market to date, including the types of compliance options chosen and quantity and type of emissions trading being conducted.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

关于企业法律风险动态性控制的研究

法律风险的有效控制对企业的发展至关重要。基于当前企业法律风险的复杂性,改变以往的企业法律风险研究的视角,从动态性控制的角度进行企业法律风险的有效防范和控制。在此基础上,将法律风险周期这样一个循环理念贯穿于法律风险防范机制的构建当中,并基于这个分析视角,提出了法律风险动态性控制的流程,为企业有效控制法律风险提供一个全新的方法。     

A theory of legal presumptions

This article analyzes how legal presumptions can mediate betweencostly litigation and ex ante incentives. We augment a moralhazard model with a redistributional litigation game in whicha presumption parameterizes how a court 'weighs' evidence offeredby the opposing sides. Strong prodefendant presumptions forecloselawsuits altogether, but also engender shirking. Strong proplaintiffpresumptions have the opposite effects. Moderate presumptionsgive rise to equilibria in which both shirking and suit occurprobabilisitically. The socially optimal presumption tradesoff agency costs against litigation costs, and could be eitherstrong or moderate, depending on the social importance of effort,the costs of filing suit, and the comparative advantage thatdiligent agents have over their shirking counterparts in mountinga defense. We posit three applications of our model: the litigationrate effects of the 1995 Private Securities Litigation ReformAct, the business judgment rule in corporations law, and fiduciaryduties in financially distressed firms.     

Interconnectivity of communications networks and international trade

Abstract In this study a multi‐country model of trade is developed that captures the role of country‐specific communications network interconnectivity, which enhances trade in intermediate business services. The number of countries connected to internationally interconnected networks is found to determine the structure of comparative advantage. That is, countries with interconnected networks have a comparative advantage in the good that requires business services provided via networks. In connected countries, producers of that good benefit from the efficient transmission of business services. This research also demonstrates that countries whose country‐specific networks are not connected to the interconnected networks may become worse off as the result of trade. JEL Classification: D43, F12
Interconnectivité des réseaux de communication et commerce international Ce mémoire développe un modèle de commerce international impliquant plusieurs pays qui cerne le rôle de l'interconnectivité des réseaux de communication de chaque pays. Cette interconnectivité enrichit les flux de commerce dans les services intermédiaires d'affaires. Il appert que le nombre de pays connectés aux réseaux internationalement connectés détermine la structure de l'avantage comparatif. Ce qui veut dire que les pays qui ont des réseaux interconnectés ont un avantage comparatif dans le bien qui requiert les services d'affaires fournis par les réseaux. Dans les pays connectés, les producteurs de ces biens bénéficient de la transmission efficace de ces services d'affaires. La recherche montre aussi que les pays dont les réseaux nationaux ne sont pas connectés aux réseaux interconnectés peuvent voir leur situation s'empirer en conséquence du commerce international.