Simplified Risk Analysis in Agricultural Extension

Attention is given to the major methods of assessing risk in order to make choices. The literature frequently reports studies on mean-variance (E-V) analysis and stochastic dominance rules. Both of these methods are compared, in an agricultural application, with the approach outlined by Hanoch and Levy. The empirical results suggests that Hanoch and Levy's criterion appear to reduce the size of the risk-efficient set, and that the sets of recommendations from the methods under comparison were consistent. The two recommendations generated by Hanoch and Levy's rule were found to be reasonable for this particular decision process.     

Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending

Credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Capital Accord. The study uses credit value-at-risk methods to calculate probability of default, loss given default, and expected and unexpected losses. Two applied models, CreditMetrics and Moody's KMV , are estimated using farm financial data. The results show that the necessary capital for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Accord varies substantially depending on the riskiness and granularity of the portfolio.     

Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk

The agricultural marketing environment is inherently risky. Having accurate measures of risk helps farmers, policy‐makers and financial institutions make better informed decisions about how to deal with this risk. This article examines three tail quantile‐based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall and Spectral Risk Measures. We use Extreme Value Theory to model the tail returns and present results for these three different risk measures using agricultural futures market returns data. We compare estimated risk measures in terms of size and precision, and find that they are all considerably higher than Gaussian estimates. The estimated risk measures are also quite imprecise, and become more so as the risks involved become more extreme.     

对中国农业信贷风险问题的探究

农业信贷高风险的特性从很大程度上制约了中国农业信贷作用的发挥,本文从信息不对称的角度分析了信贷风险的成因,剖析了中国农业信贷中的风险问题,并尝试提出了三种解决这一问题的模式。     

Credit Risk and the Demand for Agricultural Loans

This paper uses the lender–borrower relationship to provide insight into the impirical estimation of loan demand/contract curves for agricultural loans. Loan demand is shown to be determined partly by lenders'willingness to provide debt. The implicit solution to the loan contract curve in the lender–borrower relationship is derived from the cumulative probability distribution function of loan losses, which is the same measure used as the dependent variable in credit scoring models. Consequently, empirical estimation of loan demand can be obtained from credit scoring models. This paper presents the theory and then provides loan demand estimates and elasticities using Farm Credit Corporation cross-sectional and time-series data. Empirical estimates indicate the possibility of a backward-bending loan demand curve, which may indicate some credit ationing in agriculture.     

Assessing Credit Risk in an Agricultural Loan Portfolio

We show that agricultural lenders can implement a credit risk model that uses their loan portfolio data and complies with the new Basel Capital Accord without requiring Merton-type model assumptions about underlying asset price volatility. A credit risk model is described and calibrated to the loan portfolio of a farm lender. The model is used to produce plausible estimates of expected loss, unexpected loss, and credit value-at-risk (VaR) at the portfolio and subportfolio (sector) levels. The lender could use these kinds of estimates to meet regulatory requirements or to adjust the level of capital in response to changing economic conditions.
Nous montrons que les prêteurs agricoles peuvent appliquer un modèle de risque de crédit qui permet d'utiliser des données tirées de leur portefeuille de prêts et qui respecte le nouvel accord de Bâle sur les fonds propres, sans qu'il soit nécessaire d'utiliser les hypothèses du modèle de Merton sur la volatilité des prix des actifs. Nous avons décrit un modèle de risque de crédit et l'avons calibré en fonction du portefeuille de prêts d'un prêteur agricole. Le modèle est utilisé pour effectuer des estimations plausibles quant aux pertes prévues, aux pertes imprévues et à la valeur à risque au niveau du portefeuille et du sous-portefeuille. Le prêteur pourrait utiliser ce genre d'estimations pour respecter les exigences réglementaires ou pour rajuster le niveau de fonds propres en fonction de l'évolution de la conjoncture économique.     

Agricultural Chemical Residues as a Source of Risk

Exposures to individual agricultural chemical residues are a relatively small source of risk across selected environmental and human health end points; nutrients in water, of which agricultural uses are only one source, may be an exception. This may explain recent policy decisions to tighten regulation of nutrients in water resources. However, uncertainty about nutrient damages hinders design of an efficient policy to deal with nutrients.     

转型期农业风险的特点与风险管理

本文分析了我国农业从计划经济向市场经济的转型期所面临的各种经营风险,认为农业的自然风险已经让位于市场风险,体制风险与市场风险相互交织,从理论与实践的角度,重点考察了农业的制度风险、市场风险、技术风险和信贷金融风险的成因,相互关系及其特点,提出了政府、市场、企业和农民在农业风险控制和风险转移方面各自的作用,提出了建立我国农业风险管理方面的复合结构模式的建议。     

民营农业龙头企业经营风险及其弱化 --基于山东的调查分析

由于政府相关政策的支持、鼓励和引导，目前民营资本作为重要的农业产业化经营主体已经成为推动农业产业化发展中日渐活跃的关键因素。本文以山东为例，在对济南、莱阳、济宁和泰安等地的实地调研基础上，分析总结山东民营龙头企业当前面临的主要经营风险及其特征，并对其目前所采取的风险弱化措施进行评价，认为原料生产标准化，产品、市场多元化以及积极应对贸易壁垒等是目前民营龙头企业有效弱化经营风险的关键，但还需要在完善利益约束机制、设立产业化风险基金以及采用出口信用保险等方面进一步加强，而政府必须为企业的发展营造良好发展环境．规范和引导民间合作组织并健全风险保障机制。     

黑龙江垦区农业风险管理对策研究

本文阐述了黑龙江垦区面临的农业风险，指出了黑龙江垦区农业风险管理存在的问题，提出了积极争取国家资金和有利的农业保护政策、完善农业信息的传播渠道、加快农业产业化进程和完善国有农场保险体制等黑龙江垦区弱化农业风险的对策。     

Risk and Crisis Management in the Reformed European Agricultural Policy

Currently there is ample discussion among EU Institutions (European Commission, European Parliament, and Member States' governments) on the opportunity for setting up a comprehensive EU‐wide framework on risk and crises in agriculture. In the meantime, within the limits of the WTO rules on agriculture, national governments are allowed to intervene through direct compensation to farmers in case of exceptional events that cause damages to farming operations and through subsidies to crop insurance programs. Such schemes are quite expensive for domestic budgets and some Member States are trying to switch some of their cost to the Community's budget, although an expansion of financial resources devoted to agriculture in Europe is rather unlikely. Moving from the recently emanated proposal of the European Commission, this paper discusses the main issues related to public intervention for risk and crises management in agriculture. Actuellement, les institutions européennes (Commission européenne, Parlement européen et gouvernements des pays membres) discutent intensément de l'opportunité d'élaborer un cadre général pour l'ensemble de l'Union européenne sur les crises et les risques dans le secteur agricole. Entre‐temps, selon les règles de l'OMC sur l'agriculture, les gouvernements nationaux peuvent intervenir en accordant des compensations financières directes aux agriculteurs en cas de circonstances exceptionnelles causant des dommages aux exploitations agricoles ainsi que des subventions aux programmes d'assurance récolte. Ces interventions amputent considérablement les budgets nationaux, et certains pays membres tentent de transférer une partie de leurs coûts au budget de l'Union européenne, bien qu'il soit peu probable que les ressources financières consacrées à l'agriculture en Europe augmentent. A la lumière de la récente proposition de la Commission européenne, le présent article traite des principaux thèmes liés à l'intervention publique dans la gestion des risques et des crises dans le secteur agricole.     

资产专用性与农业结构调整风险规避

本文在对我国农业结构调整风险问题进行综述的基础上 ,从资产专用性角度出发 ,系统探讨了农业结构调整中风险生成机理及其化解的思路。     

基于产业链的农业风险管理体系建设

当前我国存在着农业高风险与农业风险管理低效率的困境。本文认为，农业风险类型之间的关联性与风险管理方式之间的孤立性是导致这一困境的根本原因，在此基础上，本文提出了基于产业链的农业风险管理体系，以实现农业风险管理的高效率。     

农产品市场风险与市场预测研究

本文阐述了我国农业生产面临的市场风险，分析了我国农产品市场价格的不确定性、市场需求多样多变性、市场预测偏差性等，在此基础上讨论了当前我国农产品价格变动的规律和原因，针对我国农产品价格受短期市场影响较大的特点，作者提出了农产品价格预测模型，并进行了实例计算，对我国农产品市场风险的防范具有现实意义。     

我国农业市场风险演化:判断与评估

文章首先从分工角度探讨了农业市场风险生成与演化机制,然后结合农村改革历程,对我国农业市场风险演化规律做出定性判断和定量评估。结果显示,我国农业市场风险呈现先增加后减小并趋于高位稳定的倒"U"型演化轨迹,并已成为最主要的农业风险。最后提出治理农业市场风险的相关建议。     

农业企业风险的整合治理研究——基于COSO报告的风险管理框架

农业企业的自然环境风险、市场风险和企业内部风险三类风险具有很强的整体性和关联性,使得孤立的风险管理方式捉襟见肘,甚至其管理方式本身会带来新的风险。为了更好地进行农业企业风险管理,有必要借鉴COSO报告,建立起一个包含了内部环境、目标设定、事项识别、风险评估、风险应对、控制活动、信息与沟通、监控八个要素,前后一贯、相互联系的风险管理整合框架。     

农业高新技术企业引入风险投资的可行性研究

农业高新技术及其产业已成为世界许多国家发展的重点，农业高新技术产业正在成为农业现代化的催化剂。我国是一个农业大国，发展农业高新技术企业，促进农业高新技术产业化，对提高我国农业的国际竞争力，促进农业和整个国民经济的发展具有十分重要的意义。农业高新技术企业是指那些研制、开发、生产销售农业高新技术产品的企业。农业高新技术企业与传统企业的不同之处在于它的创新性、高投入、高风险、高增值，而这正是吸引风险投资的诱因。     

农产品期货在涉农企业风险管理中的运用

涉农企业在经济全球化背景下面临着上下游商品价格剧烈波动的风险,如何利用农产品期货进行风险管理是现代企业需要研究的问题。通过介绍期货套期保值原理,结合历史数据与实际案例对涉农企业利用农产品期货商品价格规避风险进行实证分析,指出了涉农企业在套期保值过程中应该注意的重要事项。