Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical assessment of the determinants of savings rates, with special emphasis on Latin American savings rates. The study is based on international comparisons, using data from 36 countries for 1970–1992. A distinction is made between private and public savings. The later are endogenously determined by economic and political variables. Per capita income growth is the most important determinant of private and public savings; public savings are lower in countries with higher political instability; public savings crowd out private savings, but less than proportionately. Low Latin American savings are due to the magnitudes of their determinants, rather than structural differences.     

Monetary union in Latin America: an assessment in the context of optimum currency area

The article applies the optimum currency area (OCA) theory to Latin America to assess the potential of a monetary union in Latin America and in its major existing regional trade agreements (RTAs). According to OCA criteria we find that Latin America is far from being an optimum currency area, as its countries’ exposure to asymmetric shocks is high and their capacities to adjust in response to macroeconomic disturbances are limited. Using a panel of 20 Latin American countries from 1990 to 2014, we apply the dynamic OLS estimation techniques to estimate the costs and benefits of a potential monetary union in Latin America and in its various RTAs. to estimate the costs and benefits of a potential monetary union in Latin America and in its various RTAs. We find that the costs are high, because Latin America’s economies are vulnerable to severe macroeconomic disturbances and its RTAs differ significantly in their response to negative demand shocks. Most of the monetary efficiency gains are shown to be the result of a common restrictive monetary policy which would result in higher FDI inflows and, to a more limited extent, increased GDP, both overall and per capita. Although Central American countries are shown to be most suitable for further monetary integration, we conclude that Latin American countries should head first towards greater economic and political integration.     

Sequencing of Economic Reforms in the Presence of Political Constraints

This paper presents a model portraying a country in a political deadlock about economic reform proposals in which certain measures hurt strongly-organized interests. We show that when governments are unable to precommit and interest groups have veto power, only far-reaching reforms (even if quite costly) have hope of success. The model intends to explain why in recent years several Latin American countries have opted for radical reform.     

Regional Integration and Intra-industry Trade in Latin America, 1980–90

The decade of the 1980s saw profound changes in the political economy of Latin America. The stabilisation and debt crises forced many countries in the region to re-examine their economic policies individually as well as collectively. The consequence was both a movement in the direction of neoliberal reform that included an emphasis on export promotion as well as a revival of interest in regional integration. The specific purpose of the present paper is to examine the consequences of these changes for the structure of intra-regional trade among and between Latin American countries. More specifically, we are interested in assessing the region's performance in terms of intra-regional, intra-industry trade over the period 1980–90.     

‘Geopolitics of Integration’ and the Imagination of South America

The main tenet of this article is to argue that the process of regionalisation in Latin America is entering into a new phase, where South America is consolidating an own process of regional integration. From being not more than a geographical expression, South America is rapidly becoming a political and economic entity with increasing international actorhood. One important difference to the past is that there is now a ‘core state’, Brazil, with a clear strategy directed towards deepening South American integration. Yet, Brazil is not alone; there is also an increasing convergence with other South American states and old rivalries are being substituted for increased cooperation in areas such as economy, infrastructure, energy, security or aid. As this article explains, the logic of action of the forces behind the process of integration can be understood by analysing the evolution of South American geopolitical current called ‘geopolitics of integration’.     

Foreign education and international trade: empirical evidence from selected Latin American countries

Social ties among university students – of friendship, mutual trust and attachment to the alma mater – tend to be robust and enduring. Through information-diffusion and behaviour-enforcement mechanisms, they can boost the economic exchanges between countries. This paper tests the influence of Latin American people with a tertiary education in OECD countries on the bilateral trade between the home economy and the country of the alma mater, taking into account potential endogeneity concerns. Results show that Latin American student networks exert strong, positive and significant effects on bilateral imports and exports. A 10% increase in the number of Latin American students in the OECD economy boost bilateral trade by about 3%. At a more disaggregated level, their impact on differentiated goods is significantly higher than on homogenous products. Their incidence is lower in the presence of bilateral trade agreements and economic integration between countries. Results are robust to the deep economic and political transformations of the period considered, and to the use of different regressors and specifications.     

Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the period 1990 ‐ 2015

Latin American countries experienced important changes in the 2000s. The implementation of fiscal reforms, public debt reduction and the high level of accumulated reserves gave them more policy space than in the past. As a result, Latin American countries were able to implement countercyclical policies to face the negative economic and social consequences associated with the recent macroeconomic shock. Some countries performed better than others. In particular, Social Democratic and Centrist governments enjoyed more fiscal space; they had realized larger budget surpluses over the good years and were able to cope with the crisis without impairing their fiscal conditions. Yet, Latin America has experienced a public finance deterioration in the most recent years. While governments are showing an increasing ability on taxation they are still facing some problems on the expenditure side. As a result, fiscal policy returned acyclical after the period of the crisis. The sustainability of public accounts may be strengthened increasing tax pressure on the richest, reducing tax evasion and improving current spending efficiency. However, the increasing political problems are putting many questions about future trends of public finance in the region.     

Towards Post-neoliberal Resource Politics? The International Political Economy (IPE) of Oil and Copper in Brazil and Chile

The contemporary commodity boom is unprecedented in two ways. On the one hand, it takes place against the backdrop of the failure of neoliberal policies to achieve stable economic growth in Latin America. On the other hand, Left-of-centre governments, which have now been in power for over a decade, are designing new strategies to manage the increase in export earnings accrued from sustained international demand for commodities. In particular, Brazil and Chile have undergone significant market opening reforms in their resource sectors, yet persistent state ownership and the dominant role of state enterprises in key extractive industries continue to characterise their growth models. This article explains this puzzle through the application of Mahoney and Thelen's (2010) historical institutionalist framework on incremental change. In so doing, it offers a process-oriented approach in exploring how resource wealth under certain economic and political conditions provides leverage for states to promote economic development. In sum, the article hopes to contribute to the literature on neoliberal and post-neoliberal political economies in Latin America.     

The poverty of democracy in Latin America

This paper reviews recent Latin American presidential elections as a means of examining the quality of democracy in the region. Its principal hypothesis is that, notwithstanding the claims of mainstream analysis, the (re)introduction of formal democratic procedure has not represented a meaningful advance in authentic, broad-based political and economic enfranchisement of the region’s working class and peasant majorities. In many cases the so-called democratic transition has merely disguised the adaption of previously authoritarian mechanisms of social control.     

Latin America after the global crisis: the role of export-led and tradable-led growth regimes

Is the ongoing economic slowdown in industrialized countries likely to impact Latin American growth negatively in the medium- to long-run? This paper considers various transmission channels that work through trade in goods and services, and finds econometric evidence suggesting that shrinking global imbalances may create problems for Latin America. Specifically, using panel data analysis, we find that the trade balance as a proportion of GDP is positively associated with Latin American economic growth over the period 1953–2009. We then develop a simple dynamic model to help explain our main finding through investment and saving behaviour.     

LAND DISTRIBUTION INEQUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: TRANSMISSION CHANNELS AND EFFECTS

Abstract.  Land reform in Asian countries is often mentioned as one explanation for the successful economic performance of several Asian countries. Latin American countries did not have land reform and therefore have had lower economic growth. However, this legitimate guess has only scarce evidences. We use a new analytical method to investigate some plausible channels and effects, and we find supportive evidences that part of the regional differential in economic performance of the East Asian and Latin American regions can be explained by their difference in land distribution inequality.     

Determinants of compliance with fiscal rules: Misplaced efforts or hidden motivations?

This paper empirically examines which factors have influenced numerical compliance with fiscal rules in Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 2000 to 2020. We use logistic regression models to associate three groups of specific factors with a greater or lesser probability of compliance with the rule: the macroeconomic and political environment of the countries and the design features of the enforced rules. We find that only changes in the macroeconomic and political context affect the probability of compliance with the enforced rules. In contrast, the institutional design of the fiscal rules does not seem to play an essential role in the compliance outcome. This result suggests that adjustments in this direction are not decisive for rule compliance.     

Regime-switching purchasing power parity in Latin America: Monte Carlo unit root tests with dynamic conditional score

We suggest a Monte Carlo simulation-based unit root test of the purchasing power parity theory for Latin American countries. Under the null hypothesis, we use a Markov regime-switching (MS) model with unit root in the conditional location and MS volatility dynamics. Under the alternative hypothesis, the proposed test incorporates Markov regime-switching autoregressive moving average (MS-ARMA) plus MS volatility dynamics. Under both the null and alternative hypotheses, one of the volatility models estimated is Beta-t-EGARCH, which is a recent dynamic conditional score volatility model. We use data on real effective exchange rate time series for 14 Latin American countries. For each country, we estimate by Monte Carlo simulation the critical values of the unit root test. We provide an economic discussion of the unit root test results and also study the robustness of MS-ARMA plus MS volatility with respect to smooth transition autoregressive models with Fourier function.     

Remittances to Latin America from migrants in the United States: Assessing the impact of amnesty programs

The magnitude of remittance flows to Latin America exceeds the combined inflows of foreign direct investment and official development assistance to the region. Since the United States is the destination country of the vast majority of migrants from Mexico, as well as from other Latin American countries, U.S. immigration policy can have a significant impact on the volume of remittances to the Latin American region. This paper studies how a generalized amnesty — a provision in the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) — affected immigrants' remitting patterns. In models that control for immigrants' length of residence in the United States and for economic conditions in both the U.S. state of residence and the country of origin, we estimate substantial post-legalization drops in remittances sent home by Mexican-born migrants who legalized through IRCA. Given the potential positive impact of remittances on investment levels, entrepreneurship rates and the development of the financial sector, this finding underscores the importance of gaining a better understanding of the impact that immigration policies in immigrant-receiving countries may have on the stream of remittance flows to immigrant-sending communities in developing regions.     

Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies

Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates nowcasts and forecasts of real GDP growth using five models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.     

Understanding political−economic development in the American South

We propose an empirical strategy to adjudicate between competing explanations of political–economic development in the American South. This strategy evaluates the dynamic relationship between partisan control of representative institutions and economic performance, both before and after major partisan realignment forces and economic conditions had structurally transformed the American South. The political–economic development of low‐capacity Southern states since the early 1980s reflects a “virtuous cycle” of rising income growth and partisan balance of state legislatures mutually reinforcing one another. These findings reconcile conflicting claims regarding the catalytic nature of political–economic development coevolution in the American South and have broader implications for the study of comparative political–economic development.     

Relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Latin America: A causality analysis with heterogeneous panel data

We empirically analyze the causality relationship between economic growth and international trade using new advancements in the econometric methodology for heterogeneous panel data applied to Latin American countries. First, we test for dependencies between the units of cross‐section (countries) and then we test for cointegration between growth and openness. Finally, we test for Granger causality using a heterogeneous panel data test. The results reject the hypothesis of general, unidirectional, and homogeneous relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Latin American countries as a group. However, considering heterogeneity, we found significant evidence of causality from trade liberalization to economic growth in Chile, Peru, Nicaragua, and Uruguay; we have found bidirectional causality in Mexico and Honduras; and a causal relationship from economic growth to trade liberalization in Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic.     

Different Impacts of Scientific and Technological Knowledge on Economic Growth: Contrasting Science and Technology Policy in East Asia and Latin America

This paper conducts country‐panel econometric analysis with a focus on the different roles of scientific and technological knowledge on economic growth and on the knowledge production functions. It finds that it is not scientific knowledge (academic articles) but technological knowledge (patents) that matters for economic growth, and that generating scientific knowledge does not automatically lead to the generation of technological knowledge. We find that technological knowledge is primarily determined by corporate research and development efforts, which used to be more lacking in Latin American countries, compared with East Asia. This finding sheds new light on the question of why Latin American and East Asian countries have shown such divergent economic performances.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF U.S. FOREIGN AID: AMERICAN LEGISLATORS AND THE DOMESTIC POLITICS OF AID

Are there systematic political economy factors that shape preferences for foreign aid, a key component of American foreign policy? We analyze votes in the House of Representatives from 1979 to 2003 that would increase or decrease foreign aid by considering the political, economic, and ideological characteristics of legislators and their districts. To understand who supports and opposes foreign aid, we utilize theories of foreign economic policy preferences. By examining different types of aid policy, we show that domestic politics and especially the distributional consequences of economic aid can matter. The economic characteristics of a district and its left–right ideological predispositions influence support for aid in a systematic fashion over the nearly 25‐year period. Stolper–Samuelson models along with political ideology can help explain legislators' preferences toward aid.     

中国拉美石油能源战略与拉美石油能源国有化

我国自20世纪90年代以来实施的拉美石油能源战略已经初现成效,但近年来,拉关一些主要产油国的石油能源国有化对我国拉关石油能源战略产生了强烈的冲击。因此,我国拉关石油能源战略在实施中应注重经济关系改善,巩固和扩大市场;淡化政治,突出合作的企业行为;采取多种战略组合开发模式,提高规避和抗击各类风险的能力。