CPI、REI、PPI和房地产价格传导研究——来自上海的实证数据

本文基于上海价格指数数据研究居民消费价格指数(CPI)、原材料燃料动力购进价格指数(REI)和工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)及房地产销售价格指数的传导效应。通过DAG技术和多元动态因果检验,给出4种价格指数的同期因果流,揭示它们之间的因果联系和信息传导。实证研究表明,PPI对CPI长期传导效应显著,房地产销售价格指数对CPI有一定的弱传导效应。我国应重新编制CPI,提高居住类权重。     

股票收益与消费者价格指数、工业品出厂价格指数之间价格传导关系的研究

本文对2003年2月至11月间我国月度股票收益率与消费者价格指数（CPI）、工业品出厂价格指数（PPI）之间的价格传导关系运用计量经济学方法进行了研究。研究成果：1、股票月度收益率与CPI和PPI之间存在协整关系。2、股票月度收益率与PPI呈反向变动关系;与CPI呈同向变动关系：3、向量自回归分析结果显示：滞后1期的股票收益率对CPI在统计上有影响,滞后2期的股票收益率对PPI在不同统计水平上也有显著影响。滞后1、2期的PPI对股票收益率在不同统计水平上也有影响。Granger因果关系检验进一步支持了向量自回归分析的结果。     

房屋销售价格与租赁价格相互作用机制的实证研究

本文从房地产销售价格指数与房地产租赁价格指数以及居民消费价格指数的关系出发,利用计量工具对我国35个主要城市1999～2005年间的数据进行分组面板分析,认为通过研究销售价格指数与租赁价格指数和居民消费价格指数的关系,能够很好地判断各类房地产市场上是投机行为占主导,还是消费行为占主导,从而为判断房地产的发展现状和今后的发展趋势提供新的方法与依据。     

国际初级产品分类价格对中国物价传导效应的实证研究

本文基于2001年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,对国际初级产品分类价格对中国物价的传导效应进行了实证分析.结果表明:国际初级产品价格对国内物价的传导效应具有由短期波动到长期均衡的动态机制特征,其对PPI和CPI均具有显著的正向影响.各分类价格指数对国内物价的影响之间存在较大差异,燃料价格对国内物价的影响最大且持续时...     

事件

8月份PPI与CPI严重倒挂8月份CPI同比上涨4.9%,这是14个月以来CPI涨幅首次降到5%以下;但与此同时,工业品出厂价格(PPI)的涨幅却达到了惊人的10.1%,这是我国自1996年以来PPI的最高涨幅。按照市场经济的规律,PPI指数持续高企将逐步传导到CPI指数,有意思的是,目前两者正以剪刀差的方式运行,形成了明显的倒挂。     

中国CPI、PPI短期内还会继续下降

2009年以来，随着全球经济衰退，无论是居民消费价格指数（CPI）还是工业品出厂价格指数（PPI），都处于下行的通道。国家统计局公布的经济数据显示，1月至4月CPI总水平同比下降0．8％；PPI同比下降5．1％。     

中国CPI、PPI的分化与通缩

自2012年3月以来,中国的消费者价格指数(CPI)、生产者价格指数(PPI)一直保持一正一负的状态,其走势分化的时间之长、缺口之大都实属罕见。这种不同物价指数的走势分化也使得经济学家在对未来经济走向的判断和政策建议上出现了明显分歧。但事实上,类似现象在其他一些发达国家并不乏先例。本文整理了一些典型"通缩"期的CPI、PPI表现,以及文献中对于度量通胀指标的评价,并结合CPI的先导指标预测,认为当前中国的情况更接近于通货紧缩。基于这一判断,我们进一步分析了CPI、PPI走势对当前"债务-通缩"循环的影响。本文认为CPI、PPI一正一负的组合不仅不会扭转对于当前通缩的判断,反而会恶化本轮"债务-通缩"循环。因此政府有必要针对PPI持续下行的现象,执行反通缩的货币、财政政策。     

不必讳言通缩

【美国《华尔街日报》3月10日】虽然听起来很晦气，但它不管不顾地还是来了：通缩。 正如大多数经济学家的预期，中国2月份消费者价格指数（CPI）出现了6年多来的首次下降，同月的生产者价格指数（PPI）更是连续第3个月下降。考虑到PPI传导到CPI需要一段时间，CPI有可能在今后几个月继续下行。     

月度经济回眸

<正>5月CPI同比涨幅扩大6月12日国家统计局发布了2019年5月份全国CPI (居民消费价格指数)和PPI(工业生产者出厂价格指数)数据显示,CPI同比上涨2.7%,涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点,涨幅创去年3月以来的新高,PPI同比上涨0.6%,涨幅比上月回落0.3个百分点。从环比看,5月CPI由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。其中,食品价格上     

中国4月CPI同比增长2.8%创年内新高

据最新发布的经济数据显示,我国4月居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比增长2.8%,略高于2.7%的市场预期,创年内新高;工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)同比增幅则出乎意料地高达6.8%,     

Modeling and predicting the development of the CES of Russia,Belarus, Kazakhstan,and Ukraine

The paper describes new approaches to the prediction of integration processes in the post-Soviet space and to the macroeconomic evaluation of the integration effect with the use of a cross-country model of structural interactions.     

Health,height, and the household at the turn of the twentieth century

This article examines the health and height of men born in England and Wales in the 1890s who enlisted in the army at the time of the First World War, using a sample of recruits from the army service records. These are linked to their childhood circumstances as observed in the 1901 census. Econometric results indicate that height on enlistment was positively related to socio‐economic class, and negatively to the number of children in the household in 1901 and the proportion of household members who were earners, as well as to the degree of crowding. Adding the characteristics of the locality has little effect on the household‐level effects. However local conditions were important; in particular the industrial character of the district, local housing conditions, and the female illiteracy rate. These are interpreted as representing the negative effect on height of the local disease environment. The results suggest that changing conditions at both household and locality levels contributed to the increase in height and health in the following decades.     

Coercion, compliance, and the collapse of the Soviet command economy

Are command systems that rest on coercion inherently unstable, and did the Soviet economy collapse for this reason? Until it collapsed, the Soviet economy did not appear unstable. Why, then, did it collapse? A game between a dictator and a producer shows that a high level of coercion may yield a stable high–output equilibrium, that stability may rest in part on the dictator's reputation, and that a collapse may be brought about by adverse trends in the dictator's costs and a loss of reputation. The facts of the Soviet case are consistent with a collapse that was triggered by the strike movement of 1989.     

Regulation, competition, and the structure of prices

Many competition policy issues in regulated industries concernthe structure of prices charged by multi-product firms - forexample price discrimination, non-linear pricing, cross-subsidies,and network access pricing. This article first sets out the(Ramsey) principles of optimal pricing to recover fixed costs.The sometimes conflicting aims of promoting competition andpursuing social objectives are brought into the analysis. Questionsof whether to allow pricing structure discretion to the firm,and how much, are considered next. With asymmetric information,some discretion is often desirable, but its optimal form ishard to characterize. The article then turns to the controversialnetwork access pricing problem - on what terms should an integrateddominant firm be required to supply inputs required by its rivals?Finally, there is discussion of pricing structure regulationin the transition from more to less regulation, which, it isto be hoped, is in prospect in parts of the regulated industriesas effective competition develops.     

Safeguards, China, and the Price of Steel

The economic health of the US steel industry has fluctuated enormously over the last ten years. The implementation of steel safeguard tariffs in 2002 brought intense scrutiny by academics and industry observers, but little empirical work has focused on the factors that led to the industry’s dramatic reversal of fortune in the period that followed. We use a panel data set of product-level monthly price observations between 1997 and March 2005 to test the importance of the safeguards compared to other possible determinants. We find little evidence that the safeguards affected steel prices in the United States. Instead, results indicate that declining production capacity, improved macroeconomic conditions, and a falling dollar helped return prices to healthier levels. Finally, China’s demand for imported steel, which has not been included in previous empirical studies on the US steel industry, also appears to impact prices, but only after a lag of more than six months. JEL no. F13     

Experience,Tenure, and the Perceptions of Employers

This paper examines how group-based assessments concerning employee ability impact employee compensation. The employer learns about worker ability through Bayesian updating, creating an additional channel for wage growth that is not available to those workers with only general labor market experience. Consistent with the model's predictions, results from National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) indicate that black workers fare much better relative to white workers in returns to tenure than in returns to experience. Finally, parameter estimates in the structural model suggest that employers initially undervalue black males but that their wages rise with learning by employers over time.     

Estimating the determinants of supply of computing, problem-solving, communication, social, and teamworking skills

We investigate the sources of supply of several core skills,using an innovative approach to skills measurement that involvesadapting a job analysis methodology and applying it in a surveycontext. We then estimate the determinants of skills supplyusing a production function model. The main findings are: (i)prior education and work experience have generally positivebut diminishing marginal impacts on skills, consistent withthe earnings function literature; (ii) off-the-job trainingis productive of most types of skill, while on-the-job trainingis effective for the generation of problem-solving and team-workingskills. Both types of training are transferable from previousemployers; (iii) more education enhances the development ofcomputing skills at work, but with respect to other core skills,less educated workers make up for their lower education throughmore work-based learning; (iv) there is a strong associationbetween the presence of some new or flexible organisation characteristicsand both the level and growth of all types of skills. We argueoverall that the contribution of work-based learning to skillsdevelopment is more important than normally allowed for in theskills policy discourse.     

亲山亲水亲民

打造内陆最开放的城市,重庆拥有"两江四岸"等独特资源.2008年市政府工作报告提出,今后重庆的发展要打好山水牌,整体推进长江、嘉陵江"两江四岸"城市规划建设,实施渝中半岛城市形象设计方案,打造亲水近水、观山览水的独特风貌和宜居环境.