论资产价格波动对银行业稳定性的影响

本文以金融稳定为研究目标,以资产价格波动为研究着眼点,分析了资产价格过度波动引发金融不稳定的特征。本文在进行相关理论和数理分析的基础上,通过大量实证数据和实证分析来反应实际问题。为了检验资产价格波动与银行体系稳定性,本文收集和选取大量的中国的时间序列数据,并利用Eviews、SPSS等研究工具检验了相关变量之间的影响效果,并结合实证分析的结果,提出相关的结论和对策建议。     

资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响——基于中国数据的实证研究北大核心CSSCI

资产价格波动是影响金融稳定的重要因素。金融稳定不仅仅指银行信贷或汇率波动的稳定性,而是一个多维度的、能够全面衡量银行、证券、外汇以及宏观经济状况等金融相关变量稳定性的指标体系。本文在构建金融稳定指标体系的基础上,实证研究了我国资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响,结果表明,中国房地产销售价格和股票价格等资产价格显著影响金融稳定,且房地产、股票等资产价格的剧烈波动是引发金融不稳定的重要原因。为此,政策当局要充分意识到这一点,通过加大股票市场监管力度、建立股票市场和房地产市场的预警体系等手段来观测资产价格波动情况;同时,在制定货币政策时应高度关注资产价格,从而在一定程度上降低由资产价格剧烈波动引发金融危机的可能性。     

社会信任、收益率波动与银行风险

社会信任是经济交换的润滑剂,是监督契约执行最有效的机制.本文基于2007-2015年我国城市商业银行数据,发现社会信任水平的提高显著降低了银行风险.本文进一步揭示了社会信任对银行风险的影响渠道,发现收益率波动在社会信任与银行风险之间起到了显著的中介效应,中介效应占总效应的比重高达90.43％,即存在社会信任→资产收益率波动→银行风险的传导机制.本文还发现,在法律保护水平较高的地区,社会信任对银行风险的降低作用更为突出.本文结论意味着,通过改善地区社会信任水平可以有效地遏制银行风险.     

我国影子银行发展对资产价格推动作用的研究--以股票市场为例

近年来，我国影子银行发展迅速，可能对资产价格产生推动作用。理论上，影子银行通过信用创造机制影响实际货币供应量，进而对资产价格产生影响。以我国股票市场为例，利用2003-2013年月度数据进行实证研究的结果表明，以委托贷款、信托贷款等形式为主的影子银行在短期内对上证综指的影响较为显著。对此，金融监管当局应密切关注影子银行创造的各类金融资产的价格波动状况，谨防资产泡沫的产生。     

论房地产和证券市场的财政风险

房地产和证券等主要资产的价格波动与财政平衡之间存在密切关系.资产价格波动主要是通过收入、产出和财政援助三个渠道对财政账户产生影响的,并且这种影响在资产价格高涨和低迷时期是非线性和非对称的.本文以瑞典和英国为例,由于资产价格波动对财政账户的影响进行了实证分析,并结合中国实际给出了政策含义.     

基于行为金融的资产定价研究

本文通过结合DHS模型和前景理论来研究资产价格的形成过程,将DHS理论中的信心可变的思路应用到了前景理论的信念形成中去,建立资产定价模型。通过数值模拟的方法模拟出风险资产的价格序列,发现该价格序列波动剧烈,并分析了导致该价格波动剧烈的原因原因可能同投资者信心的动态变化有关。最后提出文章的实践意义和未来研究的方向。     

金融结构演变、货币政策与银行风险承担异质性

基于2002-2017年165家银行的面板数据,本文采用可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)方法实证检验金融结构演变视角下货币政策对银行风险承担渠道的影响。研究发现:金融结构的变化对银行风险承担具有显著影响,随着直接融资占比的上升,银行资产端风险承担显著减少,但负债端风险承担显著增加;控制住金融结构的作用之后,货币政策对银行资产端风险承担和负债端风险承担也具有显著的异质性影响,具体来说,价格型货币政策的紧缩使得银行资产端风险承担显著减少而导致银行负债端风险承担显著增加,数量型货币政策的紧缩则使得银行资产端风险承担和负债端风险承担同时减少;此外,货币政策与金融结构对银行风险承担具有显著的交互影响,随着直接融资占比的上升,价格型货币政策工具对银行资产端风险承担的影响减弱,对银行负债端风险承担的影响没有表现出显著变化,数量型货币政策工具对银行资产端风险承担和负债端风险承担的影响都受到削弱。研究结论的政策含义对货币当局、监管部门以及商业银行都具有重要意义。     

资产价格波动与金融稳定研究述评

资产价格波动与金融稳定的关系,一直是学术界研究的热点问题。近年来的研究认为资产价格波动与银行信贷的相互作用加强,进而日趋影响金融稳定;资产价格波动直接影响银行资本金和金融机构经营环境从而影响金融稳定;理论研究日益强调信息不对称以及“委托一代理”问题在资产价格波动影响金融稳定过程中的重要性。同时,大部份的实证研究都支持了资产价格波动对金融稳定具有重要影响的观点。一些学者就如何应对资产价格波动从而保持金融稳定的问题提出了针对性的建议。     

货币政策银行风险承担渠道的非对称性研究综述

自2007年金融危机爆发以来,货币政策通过"银行风险承担渠道"影响金融与经济稳定已渐成学术界共识。然而,关于货币政策银行风险承担渠道时间非对称性方面的研究目前尚处于萌芽阶段。鉴于此,本文对国内外相关研究文献进行了梳理和探讨,不仅加深了对于货币政策风险承担渠道的时间非对称性的内在机理的理解,而且对于宏观审慎政策如何协调货币政策监管金融稳定有了更深刻的把握。     

宏观杠杆率、影子银行规模与银行体系稳定性——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

"去杠杆"、"强监管"和"防风险"是新时期经济社会发展中的关键任务。本文选取2010-2018年季度数据构建微观审慎监管视角下的银行体系稳定性指数,分析检验我国宏观杠杆率、影子银行规模对银行体系稳定性的时变影响机制。研究显示:我国银行体系稳定性总体呈震荡向下趋势,由稳定阶段逐渐转向当前高度不稳定阶段。进一步地,采用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)实证研究发现:我国宏观杠杆率与影子银行规模对银行体系稳定性的冲击响应具有时变特征和时滞效应。宏观杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的非线性动态关系,二者叠加会对银行体系产生不利冲击。中长期内,宏观杠杆率过快攀升会加重银行体系不稳定,杠杆率适度波动一定程度上有利于银行体系稳定;短中期内,影子银行的适当扩张给稳定银行体系产生积极影响,但过度膨胀会形成长期持久的负向冲击。鉴于此,现阶段我国应加强经济去杠杆、影子银行监管及银行风险防范多重政策目标之间的有效协同,以维护金融体系稳定。     

Do Depositors Benefit from Bank Mergers? An Examination of the UK Deposit Market

This study examines whether depositors benefit from bank mergers Specifically, do horizontal retail bank mergers influence the availability and interest rates of deposit services? This examination is important, as the effect of mergers on customers is a primary merger assessment criterion in the European Union and the United States. The research question is addressed by considering 57 UK banking mergers over the period 1989–2008. It is reported that different deposit services and deposits of different values face statistically insignificant levels of interest-rate change after mergers. The availability of notice deposit services for low and high levels of investment are reduced after mergers and are largely unchanged for other deposit services. It is concluded that UK depositors benefit little from bank mergers, and different types of depositor face differences in the availability of deposit services after mergers.     

The cross-Atlantic tussle over financial data and privacy rights

Banking is an international business; both information and capital flow relatively unimpeded across international borders. Banking institutions’ information stores have increased dramatically with the spread of computers, and these institutions protect data inside their firewalls from outside eyes, and from disaster, through establishing multiple secure data repositories. However, access to banks’ databases is increasingly sought by governments and governance institutions, and restrictions are tightening on moving data across borders. Probably the most prominent example of both trends involves European Union–domiciled cross-border banking business. A key legal reason for resulting issues hinges on differing views of privacy rights: the European Union enshrines privacy as a human right, while the United States empowers rights of free speech over privacy. These differing approaches to privacy rights have caused a cross-Atlantic conflict for global banks. Caught between competing, conflicting regulations, banks’ capacity to move information and to comply with governments’ demands for it have become restricted. This restriction is happening as governments seek increased access to banks’ information for purposes of financial information statecraft—the notion that countries can influence other governments’ policies and actions through data.     

Multistrategic Spatial Competition in Banking

This paper presents a model whereby banking firms use various strategies (price and non‐price) simultaneously in a monopolistically competitive model of spatial competition when the various strategies are used across different markets in the presence of a multioutput technology. The theoretical model is estimated with Spanish data pertaining to the pre‐ and post‐deregulatory periods in order to investigate the effects of deregulation of both interest rates and branches on the (differential) strategic conduct of private and savings bank.     

Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?

This paper investigates the linkages between banking crises and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive cross-country dataset for the last two decades. The paper examines whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results seem to indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate diminishes the likelihood of banking crises among developing countries. However, once crises occur, the real costs associated with them appear to be larger in countries with fixed exchange rates. The duration of crises does not seem to be robustly affected by the exchange rate policy.     

Bank-Firm Relationships and International Banking Markets

This paper reviews how long-term relationships between firms and banks shape the structure and integration of banking markets worldwide. Bank relationships arise to span informational asymmetries that are endemic in financial markets. Firm-bank relationships not only entail specific benefits and costs for both the engaged firms and banks, but also directly affect the structure of banking markets. In particular, the sunk cost of screening and monitoring activities and the 'informational capital' collected by the incumbent banks may act as a barrier to entry. The intensity of the existing firm-bank relationships will determine the height of this barrier and shape the structure of international banking markets. For example, in Scandinavia where firms maintain few and strong relationships, foreign banks may only be able to enter successfully through mergers and acquisitions. On the other hand, Southern European firms maintain many bank relationships. Therefore, banks may consider entering Southern European banking markets through direct investment.     

Financial reforms in Chinese banking: The impact on personal lending and operational efficiency

The Chinese financial system has historically been one of secrecy, distrust, and corruption. The process does not align with the western standards of transparency and auditing. In contrast to the transaction-based business culture of the West, Chinese business society is relationship-based (quanxi), which still seems to play a key role in the credit decision. With the growth of the emerging middle class, access to financial instruments such as credit cards, life insurance, stock purchases, and the like will play a greater role in the life of the Chinese consumer. Based on these forecasts, the authors recommend seven actions to manage financial activities in China, all of which are explored within this article.     

Corporate Social Responsibility in the International Banking Industry

This article aims at providing a framework to assess corporate social responsibility with international banks. Currently, it is mainly rating institutions like EIRIS and KLD that provide information about firms’ social conduct and performance. However, this is costly information and it is not clear how the rating institutions arrive at their conclusion. We develop a framework to assess the social responsibility of internationally operating banks. We apply this framework to more than 30 institutions and find significant differences among individual banks, countries, and regions. Furthermore, it appears that social responsibility of these banks has significantly improved between 2000 and 2005.      

Size,Growth, and Variance among the World's Largest Non-merged Banks

This paper analyses growth, size, and variance of the capital, assets, and pre-tax profits of large international banks during 1987-97.We test hypotheses on whether size matters. It turns out that there is an inverse relationship between the amount of bank capital, assets, and profits and the growth rate of these items.This is in line with the findings for US banks in the pre-BrettonWoods era. Furthermore, we did not find, in contrast with Tschoegl's observations for international banks in the 1970s, a negative relationship between the size of large banks and the variability of growth in capital, assets, or profits. We conclude that size is not a self-sustaining attribute of international banks.     

澳门电子银行发展的现状与风险管理

最近几年，随着互联网、固定电话、移动电话等通讯设备在澳门的快速完善，澳门银行业积极发展电子银行业务。为了对这种新的银行业务形式进行有效的风险控制，澳门金融管理局于2008年出台了《电子银行风险管理指导原则》，对澳门电子银行监管的主要风险及其监管原则、程序、措施作了详尽的规定。澳门电子银行监管的最新发展可为其他国家或地区电子银行的监管带来有益的启示。     

Retail Banking and Customer Behaviour: A Study of Self Concept,Satisfaction and Technology Usage

Prior research has investigated the effects of self-image congruence on satisfaction and brand preference. With the help of empirical research, the paper argues that, while self-image congruence may be related to customer satisfaction in a normal context, it may not necessarily affect satisfaction levels when customers are using technology-based self-services. Furthermore, during encounters involving self-service technologies, customers might experience satisfying or dissatisfying incidents which may not be related to their overall satisfaction and brand preference levels. The paper discusses implications for brand managers in the retail banking sector and suggests future research directions.