旅游上市公司收益质量评价及其有效性研究

文章利用面板数据建立了旅游上市公司收益质量的评价模型,对国内旅游行业18家上市公司2006—2009年的数据进行因子分析,得出了我国旅游上市公司收益质量整体尚佳,但各旅游上市公司的综合得分相差较大、旅游上市公司收益质量各项能力发展不平衡、旅游上市公司的收益质量整体呈上升趋势的结论,并通过聚类分析将18家样本公司的收益质量分为优秀、较好、一般和较差4种类型。然后,对不同类型旅游上市公司收益质量进行对比分析,发现旅游行业的不同子行业之间以及相同子行业内部的不同企业之间的收益质量出现了严重的分化,其中景点类收益质量最好,酒店类次之,综合类旅游上市公司相对最差,但3种类型的旅游上市公司排名均值在评价期内没有显著性变化。在得出样本数据收益质量综合得分的基础上,利用回归模型,对收益质量能够增强收益信息对股价信息解释力度的假设进行了检验,证明了收益质量确实能够增强收益信息对股价信息解释力度,说明了本研究结果的有效性和对投资者的投资决策的有用性。     

中国城镇化对旅游经济影响的空间效应——基于空间面板计量模型的研究

在理论分析城镇化对旅游经济影响的空间效应基础上,利用2000-2013年的省级面板数据和空间面板计量模型,实证探讨了城镇化规模和质量对旅游经济影响的直接效应与空间溢出效应.研究显示:(1)城镇化规模、城镇化质量和旅游经济发展都具有明显的空间依赖性和空间集聚特征,传统面板数据模型因忽略了被解释变量和解释变量的空间溢出效应而高估了城镇化对旅游经济发展的产出弹性;(2)城镇化规模和城镇化质量均对旅游经济发展具有明显的促进作用和正向的空间溢出效应,表明旅游经济发展不仅受到本地区城镇化的影响,也会受到邻近地区城镇化进程的交互作用;(3)在城镇化进程中,产业结构转变、旅游企业物质资本与劳动力投入、旅游消费水平等多维要素都是推动旅游经济发展的重要力量,旅游企业物质资本和旅游消费水平还具有显著的正向溢出效应,而旅游企业劳动力投入有明显的负外溢效应.     

我国旅游上市公司规模经济与范围经济研究

旅游上市公司规模经济和范围经济研究对企业避免盲目扩张、改善多元化经营效率具有非常重要的参考价值.应用广义超越对数成本函数对我国旅游上市公司的规模经济和范围经济状况进行分析,规模经济研究结果表明:多数旅游上市公司存在规模经济,但有减弱趋势,部分公司存在规模不经济,并有恶化倾向;景区类上市公司的规模经济状况最好.总体范围经济研究发现:大部分公司存在总体范围不经济,且总体范围不经济性逐渐增强;景区类上市公司的总体范围经济性最明显.特定产品范围经济研究显示,酒店业务与旅行社业务、景区业务与旅行社业务的组合经营可以形成范围经济效应,但酒店业务与景区业务、旅游业务与非旅游业务的组合经营存在范围不经济.     

中国省域旅游业弹性系数的空间异质性估计——基于地理加权回归模型的实证

基于2001～2009年中国省城旅游业截面平均值数据,利用考虑空间异质性的地理加权回归(GWR)生产函数模型,首次对中国省城旅游业的资本和劳动力弹性系数进行局域变参数实证估计研究.全域和局域空间自相关分析显示,中国省城旅游业产出存在显著的空间自相关性,具有明显的局域集群趋势;不考虑和考虑空间自相关性的省域旅游业生产函数全城常参数估计结果显示,资本投入的弹性系数分别为0.6939和0.7824,劳动投入的弹性系数分别为0.4932和0.3163,要素投入处于规模报酬递增阶段;考虑空间异质性的GWR模型局域变参数估计结果显示,资本投入的弹性系数在0.6905～0.6958之间,劳动投入的弹性系数在0.4859 ～0.4989之间,各个省城的要素投入均处于规模报酬递增阶段.GWR模型能在纳入空间异质性的前提下有效地估计区域旅游业弹性系数,增强了区域旅游业发展政策含义的差异化指导意义.     

考虑空间效应的中国省城旅游产业弹性估计

基于空间计量经济模型和2001～2007年截面平均值数据,对中国省域旅游产业生产函数的弹性系数进行了实证估计研究.空间自相关Moran's Ⅰ和空间关联局域指标LISA检验显示,中国省域旅游产业产出在空间上存在显著的空间自相关性,具有明显的集群趋势;纳入空间依赖性的省域旅游产业生产函数估计结果发现,资本投入对中国省域旅游产业的弹性系数为0.74,而劳动投入的弹性系数为0.40,处于规模报酬递增阶段.由此,在省域旅游弹性估算研究时不客忽视空间效应的作用,制定差异化的提高资本和劳动投入及其配置效率的旅游发展策略,对实现我国省域旅游产业可持续发展意义重大.     

中国城市居民旅游需求函数的实证研究

旅游需求问题是旅游研究的核心问题之一,中国居民旅游需求函数是旅游需求问题研究的基础,旅行成本模型广泛地被用于估计居民旅游需求函数。文章基于停留时间内生的旅行成本模型,在考虑游客动态出游行为的情形下,使用中国39个城市2000~2007年间国内旅游抽样调查数据,采用广义矩估计方法对中国居民旅游需求函数进行了估计。研究表明,旅行成本、时间成本和居民收入是影响居民旅游需求的关键因素;旅游需求收入弹性的绝对值大于旅行成本弹性的绝对值,城市旅游产业发展的居民收入激励政策较之于成本竞争策略更有效;旅游需求的旅行成本弹性和时间成本弹性差异显著,减少旅行成本政策较之于缩短旅行时间政策更能提高城市的旅游收入;旅游需求和停留时间的影响因素存在异同,扩大旅游需求和延长停留时间的选择面临"两难",但也可"两顾"。     

农业文化遗产旅游地不同类型农户的农地利用行为演变分异——以哈尼梯田为例

农户生计多样化与维持传统农业生产之间的矛盾是当前农业文化遗产保护的核心问题,旅游发展被认为是弥合二者关系的有效路径。遗产旅游地农户生计与农地利用问题的研究,可从实践层面揭示旅游发展环境下农户生计变化对农业生产的影响。文章基于元阳县12个村寨401家农户的研究表明:(1)劳动力就业呈现非农化转移,农户生计由此分化形成务农主导、务工主导、均衡兼营、旅游参与、旅游主导5种发展类型;(2)非农化发展总体上对农地保护与利用形成负面影响,对旱地的利用变化主要表现在种植结构上,对水梯田的利用变化则表现在弃耕撂荒、农地流转、劳动力投入等多个方面;(3)不同类型农户的农地利用行为改变存在差异,生计旅游化转型的农户其传统农业生产维持不及留守务农农户,劳动力投入与省工性的物质要素投入行为改变明显,但在农地保有与劳动力投入方面优于外出务工农户;(4)旅游的弥合效应与遗产保护学界的理论构想存在差异,研究区弥合效应仅在旅游从业农户群体中有所体现,这类农户根据旅游从业特点、遗产保护要求形成了旅游化兼业模式,生计压力之下对家庭劳动力的充分利用促成了农户兼顾传统农业生产。遗产保护须多方审视旅游的正反向效应,在遗产保护基础和前提下,维持适度旅游发展规模以保持农户多产兼业才是可持续发展之路。     

我国旅游上市公司无形资产对经营绩效的贡献度研究

文章基于14家旅游上市公司2001～2009年度的相关财务数据,通过建立多元回归模型,研究旅游上市公司无形资产与经营绩效的相关性,并引入虚拟变量比较了酒店类、景区类、综合类旅游上市公司无形资产对经营绩效的贡献度。研究结果表明：旅游上市公司无形资产对经营绩效的贡献是显著的、正向的;无形资产对经营绩效的贡献度远高于固定资产;酒店类、景区类、综合类旅游上市公司无形资产对经营绩效的贡献度具有显著差异;酒店类高于综合类和景区类;综合类高于景区类,但在统计上不显著。并结合实际分析原因,最后提出有针对性的建议。     

旅游经济增长及其溢出效应的空间面板计量经济分析

文章首次基于空间面板计量经济学模型,在检验我国省域旅游经济增长是否存在空间依赖性的基础上,估计了资本和劳动对旅游经济增长的贡献,检验了旅游经济增长过程中的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示:2001~2009年间,中国省域旅游经济增长的空间依赖性和集群趋势加强,邻近省域的经济增长及旅游资本投入的空间溢出效应明显;资本和劳动的旅游产出弹性系数均为正,前者对旅游经济增长的贡献大于后者,我国省域尺度的旅游经济增长主要依赖于资本要素投入驱动,呈现出资本密集型特征,劳动力要素的贡献尚未充分发挥出来。政府在制定旅游产业政策和发展规划时,必须致力于加强邻近地区旅游资本和劳动投入的合作与交流,促进旅游经济增长中的资本空间溢出效应,改革旅游业国民收入初次分配及再次分配体制,激活邻近省域旅游劳动力投入与旅游经济增长的空间互动性,以便提高邻近地区及本地区劳动力对旅游经济增长的协同贡献。     

旅游业上市公司经营业绩分析与评价

本文主要通过因子分析技术对18家旅游上市公司的总体经营业绩进行了分析、评价,发现从总体上来说,旅游上市公司在偿债、获利、资产运营、收款能力上存在较为严重的不均衡;从行业类别来细分,景点类公司总体经营业绩最优,其次是综合类,然后是酒店类。本文采用的因子分析技术也适用于企业经营业绩的排序。     

The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: A dynamic demand analysis

Although China has progressively become an important inbound tourism market for Australia, its demand elasticities have been little studied to date. This study examines the determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia using a dynamic time-series estimator. Interesting findings include a high income elasticity as a source of the continuous doubledigit growth rates in Chinese arrivals that Australia has experienced over the past two decades, together with relatively high total trip price elasticities for both short run and long run. A trend of Chinese outbound to Australia is also identified. From a policy perspective, the results confirm that keeping a low cost of visiting Australia, both ground and travel costs, is a good strategy to secure greater numbers of Chinese tourists.     

Menu engineering re-engineered: Accounting for menu item substitutes in pricing and menu placement decisions

Menu engineering is a popular technique deployed by restaurant operators to assess menu item popularity and profitability, and guide key decisions including menu item pricing, sell strategies, and menu design. While traditional menu engineering models have been criticized for their underlying assumption of menu item interdependency, there has been little focus in the literature on addressing this shortcoming. In this paper, we address one type of interdependency, menu item substitution. We propose a holistic 5-stage approach to menu item pricing and menu placement that leverages own- and cross-pricing elasticity data to account for within-category substitutes. We present a field experiment, using two years of data from 48 outlets within a U.S. steakhouse restaurant chain, to demonstrate how this approach can be applied in a restaurant setting. We also provide empirical support for the positive net revenue effects of menu item pricing, and menu placement, decisions that account for within-category substitutes.     

The impact of changes in household vacation expenditures on the travel and hospitality industries

Two large tourism industries, travel and hospitality, are strongly affected by changes in household demand for vacations. In recent years, rising income and declining prices per unit of quality have led to changes in patterns of household vacation consumption. To understand the impact of these changes on the travel and hospitality industries, we develop a theoretical model distinguishing between travel and on-site expenditures and apply it to Israeli data. We find that under certain circumstances, the changes in income and prices are responsible for a shift toward multiple, short vacations. This trend can be a boon to the travel industry but a disadvantage for the hospitality industry. Both industries are expected to face a rise in the demand for high-quality products.     

Modeling Tourist Flows to Indonesia and Malaysia

Summary

The purpose of this study was to examine the major factors that influence the flow patterns of tourists from six important tourist-generating countries to Indonesia and Malaysia. The primary determinants included in the demand models were income, prices, and time trend. Two models that employed different indicators for the price variable were estimated; one with exchange rates in addition to relative prices, whereas the other included only an exchange rate adjusted-relative price variable. Annual time-series data covering the period 1980 to 1997 were used for estimation. The results generally indicated that the factors provide reasonably good explanations for the demand for Indonesian and Malaysian tourism. The measure of thejoint effect of the changes in exchange rates and relative prices also seems to be a better indicator for the price variable for both destination countries. The study has important marketing implications for the tourism industries in Indonesia and Malaysia.     

上海市入境旅游市场影响因素分析与预测——以德国、法国、英国、美国与泰国客源国为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家知名度、影响力和旅游发展水平的主要因素,也是赚取外汇和旅游收入的重要路径。上海是外国游客入境重要的目的地,也是中国最大的入境游客中转站。文章分析了德国、法国、英国、美国、泰国五个上海主要入境旅游客源国2004年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,运用计量经济学方法建模,并实证分析了上海入境旅游需求的影响因素。研究表明,口碑效应、客源地的收入水平与上海入境旅游需求正相关;上海入境旅游具有较大的季节波动特点,冬夏两季入境游客数量减少;世博会对上海入境旅游拉动作用较大。同时,对德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年的旅游季度需求进行了预测,预测发现,德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年都有较大增长,特别是泰国市场的年均增长率达到4%。     

Modelling and forecasting the demand for Hong Kong tourism

The main objectives of this paper are to identify the factors which contribute to the demand for Hong Kong tourism with the aid of econometric models and to generate forecasts of international tourism arrivals to Hong Kong for the period 2001–2008. The general-to-specific modelling approach is followed to model and forecast the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents from the 16 major origin countries/regions and the empirical results reveal that the most important factors that determine the demand for Hong Kong tourism are the costs of tourism in Hong Kong, the economic condition (measured by the income level) in the origin countries/regions, the costs of tourism in the competing destinations and the ‘word of mouth’ effect. The demand elasticities and forecasts of tourism arrivals obtained from the demand models form the basis of policy formulations for the tourism industry in Hong Kong.     

Global Financial/Economic Crisis and Tourist Arrival Forecasts for Hong Kong

This paper examines the impact of the global financial/economic crisis on the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of 10 major source markets for the period 2009–2012. To capture the influence of this crisis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) is used to calculate the demand elasticities, and four scenarios (ranging from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic) are created to examine the possible impacts of changes in source market income levels and the price of tourism on the demand for Hong Kong tourism in these markets. The demand elasticities reveal that the economic conditions in the source markets are the most significant determinants of demand for Hong Kong tourism. In the most pessimistic scenario, total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 27.6 million in 2009 and 26.0 million in 2012, whereas in the most optimistic scenario, these numbers are 30.7 million in 2009 and 33 million in 2012. In all of the scenarios, tourist arrivals from the long-haul markets are expected to suffer more losses relative to the short-haul markets during the 2009–2012 forecasting period. The forecasts also indicate that the market shares of the source markets will change slightly over this period, with Mainland China, Taiwan and Japan constituting the dominant markets for Hong Kong tourism.     

Marginal economic impacts of inbound tourism to Taiwan and policy evaluation†

This paper presents the economic impact estimation for international visitors to Taiwan using an Input–Output Model to demonstrate the differences of economic contribution by market segments. Economic impacts are compared based on visitor segments by country of residence and travel purpose. The results indicated that high spenders contributed two to three times more expenses in Taiwan than low spenders. In 2000–2001, excluding airfares, business visitors from North America (US$1,360), Japanese sightseers (US$1,323) and Singapore/Malaysia sightseers (US$1098) were the top three segments in terms of per person per trip expenditure, whereas tourists from Korea with a purpose of visiting friends and relatives spent approximately US$314 per party per trip. Type I multipliers on sales, personal income and value added were similar across all visitor segments. Type I jobs to sales multiplier, however, had stronger variation by segments, depending on the relative composition of different items/services that visitors consumed during the trip. Policy implications are proposed for the Taiwan national tourism policy, “Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan”, which aimed to increase inbound tourism from 2.7 million person visits in 2002 to 5 million person visits by 2008. It is suggested that multiple indicators, such as length of stay, segment shares, and daily spending by individual visitor segments, should be concurrently incorporated in the policy formulation and evaluation process. Relying on one measurement objective, such as 5 million yearly visits, is inadequate in determining the overall achievement and efficiency of tourism policies.