The evolution and future of the BRICS: Unbundling politics from economics

Under the current global forces, economics muddled with politics is exerting undue pressures on the BRICS countries and is challenging the sustainability of their accord. Unanticipated problems are increasingly inhibiting economic and social prosperity. This paper analyzes the current difficulties that the BRICS are facing, scrutinizes their unique individual economic and political environments, and ventures to anticipate their prospects. Our consensus is that the future prosperity of these countries depends not only on their individual political and economic environments, but also on the major global powers. Furthermore, the current inevitable interconnectivity of politics and economics provides foresight into their future role on the world stage.     

The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Energy future studies can be a useful tool for learning about how to induce and manage technical, economic and policy change related to energy supply and use. The private sector has successfully deployed them for strategic planning, examining key parameters such as markets, competition and consumer trends. However in public policy, most energy future studies remain disconnected from policy making. One reason is that they often ignore the key political and institutional factors that underpin much of the anticipated, wished-for or otherwise explored energy systems developments. Still, we know that institutions and politics are critical enablers or constraints to technical and policy change. This paper examines how analytical insights into political and institutional dynamics can enhance energy future studies. It develops an approach that combines systems-technical change scenarios with political and institutional analysis. Using the example of a backcasting study dealing with the long term low-carbon transformation of a national energy system, it applies two levels of institutional and political analysis; at the level of international regimes and at the level of sectoral policy, and examines how future systems changes and policy paths are conditioned by institutional change processes. It finds that the systematic application of these variables significantly enhances and renders more useful backcasting studies of energy futures.     

Colour the future green?: The uncertain significance of global green politics

A major value shift in industrialized countries in the same direction as the core values of the Greens movements suggests that there is a cultural phenomenon involving far more people than the overt political manifestation of it. This article links such a value shift with something more fundamental, namely a movement away from confident scientific positivism towards some kind of ill-defined transcendentalism. Related cultural and social movements in the industrialized countries and global attitudes in the developing world are examined. It appears that even if the Greens movements weaken or disappear in their present form, they are political manifestations of a broader cultural thrust that seems unlikely to diminish.     

Emptying the future: On the environmental politics of anticipation

Anticipation may be seen as structured by images and representations, an approach that has informed recent work in science and technology studies on the sociology of expectations. But anticipation, as a capacity or characteristic, is not solely manifested in the form of representations, even where such representations of the ‘not yet’ are performative in nature. It also comprises material capacities, technological, biophysical and affective in nature. The politics of anticipation is shaped by how these symbolic and material capacities, and the forms of agency they make possible, are distributed. As anticipation is an environmentally distributed capacity, it is suggested that the politics of anticipation is also an environmental politics. A conceptual framework for analysing anticipation as comprised of environmental capabilities is introduced, and fleshed out using a case study of energy infrastructure planning from the UK. Key elements of this framework include the concepts of anticipatory assemblages and future horizons or ‘styles’ of anticipation. Working through the case study as an empirical example of a conflict concerning the politics of anticipation and of ‘environments’, it is demonstrated how the relationships between styles of anticipation are materially constitutive of such conflicts.     

The politics of quantification

Ted Porter’s Trust in Numbers is an ambitious attempt to show how quantification in the social sciences was a response to problems of trust generated by conflicts between social scientists, politicians, managers, owners, and bureaucrats in the U.S., Britain, and France. Porter’s argument is that quantification is one way to attain trust within a profession or in the political sphere. His case studies show that less organized social scientists were forced by external constituencies to quantify, while more organized groups were able to assert their expertise and use connections to important political and economic elites to resist quantification. While Porter’s book opens new terrain, I propose that one way to reinterpret the book is to have a more explicit view of how the relations between political and economic elites produce different problems of trust and different forms of control.     

创新转型期基层行思想政治工作

工商银行以成功发行上市为起点，踏上了建设现代金融企业的新征程。在这战略转型时期，全行员工队伍思想主流是稳定健康、积极向上的。但同时也应该清醒地看到，由于体制、机制、发展模式、增长方式全面转轨，各种思想观念纷繁复杂，相互激荡，使基层银行员工思想上呈现出多元化、差异化和复杂化的特点。因此，为确保成功实现战略转型，必须大力创新转型时期的思想政治工作，具体而言，应在以下五个方面“着力”。     

The politics of government investment

This paper investigates the relation between corporate political connections and government investment. We study various forms of political influence, ranging from passive connections between firms and politicians, such as those based on politicians’ voting districts, to active forms, such as lobbying, campaign contributions, and employment of connected directors. Using hand-collected data on firm applications for capital under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), we find that politically connected firms are more likely to be funded, controlling for other characteristics. Yet investments in politically connected firms underperform those in unconnected firms. Overall, we show that connections between firms and regulators are associated with distortions in investment efficiency.     

The future of Muslim politics : Critique of the ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state

This article considers the future of Muslim political thought in the context of growing de-Islamization and the dominance of Western institutions. The ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state—total mobilization of Muslim societies under a universal state—is criticized as religiously an immanentist heresy, and politically a totalitarian nightmare. Proposed here is a way out of the moral and intellectual crisis in Islamic political thought through the principle of Shura—meaning that Muslims must evolve their own form of representative government.     

磁力 张力 活力——工行湖北省孝感分行思想政治工作探秘

2002年前的工行孝感分行,在全国400个二级分行中综合排名倒数第51名,绩效等级为E级,是违规经营的“重灾区”,两次受到省分行“黄牌警告”.自2003年扭亏为盈后快速发展,2006年实现利润7560万元,居全省首位;2007年实现拨备后利润13166万元,不良贷款占比仅为1．03％,远远低于全国平均水平,     

The budgetary process of power and politics

The traditional literature has long espoused the claim that budgeting facilitates and enables technically rational decision-making within organizations, and that good budgeting reflects organizational reality. In contrast, an emergent view reasons that budgeting systems may as much be constitutive of reality, that they are an integral part of the politics and power of organizational life and that they are used to legitimize action.The purpose of the paper is to consider the usefulness of the emergent theory in understanding budget-related behavior in six hospitals. More specifically, the complicity of budgeting in performing or not performing six management roles is examined. Based on intensive interviews with nursing managers, it is concluded that the emergent theory meaningfully describes much budget-related activity in the hospitals, but that double-reflexivity on the part of the researcher is necessary in order to understand both the merits and limitations in the emergent theory. Implications of the analysis and empirical inquiry are considered.     

The politics and economics of offshore outsourcing

This paper reviews the political uproar over offshore outsourcing connected with the release of the Economic Report of the President (ERP) in February 2004, examines the differing ways in which economists and non-economists talk about offshore outsourcing, and assesses the empirical evidence on the importance of offshore outsourcing in accounting for the weak labor market from 2001 to 2004. Even with important gaps in the data, the empirical literature is able to conclude that offshore outsourcing is unlikely to have accounted for a meaningful part of the job losses in the recent downturn or contributed much to the slow labor market rebound. The empirical evidence to date, while still tentative, actually suggests that increased employment in the overseas affiliates of US multinationals is associated with more employment in the US parent rather than less.     

The global compact: The conservative politics of international tourism

In response to any distributive outcome, politics asks, “who benefits?” and its corollary, “who loses?” Tourism, the world's largest industry, must have a politics; its presence changes the distribution of power and wealth, and promotes some values and groups over others. Yet tourism is deeply depoliticized. A few key characteristics of tourism, combined with basic aspects of the international system, create tendencies and patterns at three levels: the local, the national, and the international. The industry's elasticity means that quantitative projections are less helpful in understanding what politics is, and for identifying prospective winners and losers, than are qualitative sketches outlining how power relationships are elided in different spheres. This essay considers the current state of international tourism, and the infrastructure, national and international, that support and guide it, emphasizing the ideas and practices that keep politics out, and arguing that tourism is to a considerable degree about elites justifying, or mystifying, the status quo, and destinations playing into those expectations.     

The future of fintech

This article describes the growing field of financial technology (fintech) and the different financial paradigms and technologies that support it. Fintech is primarily a disintermediation force where disruptive technologies are the drivers. This framework discusses 10 primary areas in fintech comprising a taxonomy, which categorizes research in the field and also proposes a pedagogical structure. Pitfalls of fintech are also analyzed. Overall, the great strides made in computing technology, mathematics, statistics, psychology, econometrics, linguistics, cryptography, big data, and computer interfaces have combined to create an explosion of fintechs.     

The future of morality

Moral criticism of human institutions is frequent : the acceptance of social constraints by the free individual is rare. This moral inversion is inconsistent with the survival of an increasingly interdependent society. Statements of human rights must be replaced by statements of human responsibility if we are to make the world viable.     

The future of happiness

Following definitions of ‘happiness’ and ‘social development’, crossnational and temporal happiness trends are analysed to reveal whether reported happiness reflects changes in broader social conditions. The authors question whether an effective measurement of happiness can serve as an indicator of social development. In addition, the role of information in contributing to or maximizing happiness is analysed.     

The future of religions

The global future of religions is considered in the context of ‘worldviews’ which, unlike traditional Western beliefs, combine religious and secular belief systems into a dynamic functioning whole. Seven world blocs relating to seven worldviews are identified: the ‘democratic West’ (with a largely Christian background); the Euro—Asian Marxist bloc; the Islamic crescent from Indonesia to North Africa; the non-Marxist, non-Islamic cultures of old Asia; Latin America; Black Africa south of the Sahara; and the smaller countries of the Pacific. The dual forces of individualism and nationalism will have the largest impact on the future development and interactions of religions. The most powerful changes politically will be the convergence of the interests of Christianity and Western humanism on the one hand, and Buddhism and other religions on the other. The ecumenical North—South character emerging in Christianity will make the churches more critical of the present economic system, ‘privatized’ religion will appear in the Marxist countries, hardline Judaism will intensify in the USA (despite developments in Israel) and the friction between radical Hindu and Islamic values will increase (especially in India) and could be a major factor in warfare over the next 30 years.     

The Museums' future

‘The Museums' Future’ argues that through the effects of the postmodernisation of museums, art has been ceded variously to culture, commerce, politics, values and to experience. In this scenario, political culture has surrendered to cultural politics.It asks whether a museum project of the future can be envisaged in which history and experience are not replaced entirely by spectacle, and memory is not banalized? Can the museum contribute to reconfigurations of the Subject and Other and to identity and difference without falling into the traps of a politics of identity? Can the museum find ways of reaffirming universal principles without running the risk of imposing a new order dominated by a single culture?     

The future quantified

The results reported in this paper demonstrate that the qualitative (group) research and quantitative (individual) survey techniques that have been developed now offer a viable means for mapping current expectations and the possible future directions these will take. Sensible use of these should provide governments, and large organisations in general, with a powerful new set of tools for positively managing the future. In terms of the issues themselves, the group which emerged most strongly from the quantified responses of the individuals are those which might be seen as relating to the ‘green' environment. On the other hand, our qualitative groups looked upon these key issues as representing matters of survival for humanity as a whole. Such a focus on survival may seem selfish, but it can also be seen as altruistic not concerned with personal survival. It also represents a sound, rational approach to long-term planning, where the respondents focused instead on how governments might positively, and safely, manage all the long-term issues threatening the future of humankind. If we move away from ‘green' issues, it is also clear that even individuals recognize the globalisation of issues in particular the globalisation of business, the possibility of a global financial crash and the (threat of) domination by Pacific Rim countries. At the opposite end of the spectrum are worries about the significant problems faced by the underclasses—and, in turn, the significant threat these present to society as a whole. In general though, apart from technological issues, the emphasis was—across almost all areas—on survival in the face of events ranging down from catastrophes to mere crises and stresses!     

Unix终端还能走多远?

今天,当桌面计算已经进入了一个图形化的视窗时代后,曾经最早进入信息化的Unix终端行业用户,依然在使用着纯粹的Unix终端。当行业应用对终端产品提出更多新的需求,传统的Unix终端显然已经不能适应应用需求的快速延伸与扩展,我们不禁质疑:传统Unix终端还能走多远?2003年5月,国内图形终端的领导者升腾资讯公司,以“终结Unix终端时代”的鲜明旗帜,发布数十款升腾终端产品,以完善、成熟的“一台清”行业桌面应用方案,打响了一场全面替换传统Unix终端的产业升级革命。行业应用深刻变化提出“一台清”终端需求回顾终端发展历史,具有相对简单的…