Social sustainability of regional transportation: An assessment framework with application to EU road transport

The assessment of transportation social sustainability appeals to many scholars as an essential issue but imposes a risk of selecting inadequate factors and methods to measure social phenomena. In this study, based on an extensive review, we identify the measurable key social indicators (instead of the economic or environmental factors commonly used) and propose a comprehensive evaluation framework for relative performance analysis of social sustainability in the regional context. This work is the first attempt to assess regional social sustainability of transport explicitly utilizing a multi-output performance measure. We use Shannon entropy to combine the results of selected data envelopment analysis (DEA) models into a unified social sustainability performance score. The method is applied to regional road transport in the European Union (EU) member states for the period 2004–2017. The empirical section explores individual profiles of EU countries, compares the states grouped into two clusters of old (EU-15) and new (EU-13) EU members, and examines their social sustainability performance over time. The analysis suggests that considering only social factors in the measurement eliminates the bias resulting from the inclusion of economic factors. As a result, our method prevents inaccurate inflation of the scores of more economically advanced countries. The findings also draw attention to the car dependence problem associated with high motorization rates in affluent EU-15 states. The study confirms the capacity of the proposed DEA-based framework to serve as an adequate tool for measuring the social sustainability of transport, which can support policymakers by providing useful benchmarks employing social factors.     

Adjusted indicators of quality and equity for monitoring the education systems over time. Insights on EU15 countries from PISA surveys

In this work, we investigate how European countries belonging to EU15 are performing in terms of the quality and equity of their educational systems. To do so, we jointly analysed student competencies in mathematics and reading using data collected in four different waves (2006, 2009, 2012, 2015) by the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) run by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The aim of this analysis is twofold: (i) to assess the associations between students' competencies inmathematics and reading and their socioeconomic status and to investigate how this relationship varies across countries over time; (ii) to present a batch of adjusted indicators relevant to the investigation of educational performance over time in terms of quality (average student competencies) and equity (low association between student achievement and their socioeconomic backgrounds). We fitted a mixed-effect (multilevel) regression model with a bivariate latent structure and random intercepts and slopes to assess the effect of socioeconomic and cultural background on student competencies across countries over time and to assess the performance trajectories of EU15 countries with respect to European Commission benchmarks. We present and discuss our main findings and their implications in terms of the policies of EU15 countries.     

Trust and corruption: The influence of positive and negative social capital on the economic development in the European Union

Why are the Scandinavian countries in the European Union significantly richer than Southern/Eastern European countries? We try to answer this question from an empirical social capital perspective. In particular, we are interested in the interplay of social trust as a positive and corruption as a negative manifestation of social capital. The opportunities to provide answers by multivariate modelling are, however, limited by several problems related to small sample size and low degrees of freedom. Regarding these problems, we test the interrelating influences between positive and negative social capital by applying a path model that accounts for Granger-like causal effects. Our empirical results, referring to a sample of up to 25 EU countries, show that corruption might harm poor European countries but is not able to affect social trust. However, corruption in itself means that resources end up in the wrong places and not in socioeconomically optimal investments. There is, therefore, a direct damaging effect of corruption on wealth. This implies that economic actors have to invest higher transaction and control costs which will bind resources to non-productive purposes and thus destroy economic wealth. Most remarkable is that the augmentation of positive social capital could work as an effective counterforce to corruption, even if it does not compensate for the economic loss caused by corruption. Thus, adding the social capital perspective may contribute to understanding present day variation in the wealth of European nations by the damaging effect of corrupt activities and/or the positive force of social trust.     

Is it an institution,digital or social inclusion that matters for inclusive growth? A panel data analysis

This study empirically examines the impact of institutional quality, social inclusion and digital inclusion on inclusive growth across different economies characterized by different income groups. Particularly, the study examines the impact of institutions on inclusive growth by using the panel data for 83 countries over the period 2010–2017. For empirical specification, we used two-steps system-GMM estimation technique to tackle endogeneity and min–max normalized indexing technique to construct the indices for inclusive growth, social inclusion, digital inclusion and institutional quality. The results of this study show that there is a direct link between institutional quality and inclusive growth for a higher-income group of countries but not in the rest of the income groups. Contribution of social and digital inclusivity is significant in all three income groups, except for social inclusion in middle-income countries. From the policy point of view, these findings suggest that establishing and strengthening the institutional structure in low- and middle-income countries can contribute towards better and higher inclusive growth.

     

Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model

This paper applies a life-cycle model with individual income uncertainty in order to investigate the determinants of credit to households. We show that the household credit to GDP ratio depends on the lending-deposit interest rate spread, individual income uncertainty, and individual income persistence. We subsequently provide empirical evidence for the prediction of a theoretical model on the basis of data from OECD and EU countries.     

Are financial spreads useful indicators of future inflation and output growth in EU countries?

This paper seeks to address the policy issue of the usefulness of financial spreads as indicators of future inflation and output growth in the countries of the European Union, placing a particular focus on out-of-sample forecasting performance. Such analysis is of considerable relevance to monetary authorities, given the breakdown of the money/income relation in a number of countries and following increased emphasis of domestic monetary policy on control of inflation following the broadening of the ERM bands. The results confirm that for some countries, financial spread variables do contain some information about future output growth and inflation, with the yield curve and the reverse yield gap performing best. However, the relatively poor out-of-sample forecasting performance and/or parameter instability suggests that the need for caution in using spread variables for forecasting in EU countries. Only a small number of spreads contain information, and improve forecasting in a manner which is stable over time. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does sport affect the competitiveness of European Union countries? An analysis of the degree of innovation and GDP per capita using linear and QCA models

The sport industry has experienced great growth in recent years worldwide, and especially in the European Union (EU) countries. However, despite the role that this industry can play in improving the competitiveness of these countries (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and innovation performance), no studies have been found that analyse its influence. So, the main aim of this study is, firstly, to analyse the relationship between the innovation performance and the GDP per capita of EU countries, and, secondly, to find out how sport-related indicators and different innovation-related indicators influence the innovation performance and GDP per capita of the EU countries. To this end, two different methodologies have been used: hierarchical regression models and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). A total sample of 23 EU countries have been analysed. The results show that GDP per capita and innovation performance are highly correlated in a positive and significant way (0.76; p?<?.0001), and that the variables related to sport help explain the variance of these two variables, highlighting as necessary variable in both cases the growth in the sports sector (consistency >0.90). Finally, a number of practical implications are presented that can help policy makers to improve the competitiveness of EU countries.

     

Multivariate choices and identification of social interactions

This paper considers the identification of social interaction effects in the context of multivariate choices. First, we generalize the theoretical social interaction model to allow individuals to make interdependent choices in different activities. Based on the theoretical model, we propose a simultaneous equation network model and discuss the identification of social interaction effects in the econometric model. We also provide an empirical example to show the empirical salience of this model. Using the Add Health data, we find that a student's academic performance is not only affected by academic performance of his peers but also affected by screen‐related activities of his peers.     

A model for predicting determinants factors for NEETs rates: Support for the decision-makers

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determining factors of the high levels of NEETs both in EU member states and in partner countries, to support policy steering and increase socio-economic cohesion. The use of longitudinal data (2005–2020) from Eurostat and World Bank databases and selected and the testing of a number of 19 factors likely to influence the rate of NEETs show us that the effectiveness of public policy solutions focused on this category of population increases when complex factors and not singular elements are targeted. From a methodological point of view, we will use MARS models and fixed effects panel models. To account for countries’ heterogeneity, these models are applied to homogeneous groups of countries, identified through cluster analysis. Social cohesion and sustainability measures for policy steering have higher chances if the action of the responsible institutions targets both meso and macro levels, if it acts not only on a factor but also on the causes that favor its manifestation. Our analysis demonstrated that the measures aimed at increasing the chances of NEETs in order to facilitate their access to education, the labor market, and social inclusion must be coordinated with those of support for combating poverty and any type of exclusion, the support given to employers (subsidizing jobs, for example), the family and the community to which the young person belongs or local authorities. Also, the research results show us that there are more common elements between countries when we analyze the factors likely to increase the rate of NEETs than when we focus on their analysis by geographical criteria, based on EU membership status or EU partner status, etc.     

Benchmarking institutional variety in the eurozone: An empirical investigation

The European debt crisis has shown that the future of the European Union (EU) depends on the willingness of each member country to implement responsible policies, avoid moral hazard and uncooperative attitudes, and ensure stability and soundness. However, the European institutional variety means that each member country reacts differently to shocks and policies, follows a different path of recovery, and adapts to common institutions, including the common currency, in different ways. Helping countries to converge toward a situation that guarantees well-being, stability, and development at the national and community level is the goal of the European benchmark. This benchmark is a framework inspired by European treaties that, through the distance-to-frontier score methodology, aims to measure member countries’ performance and identify inefficiencies and negative externalities within the economic, social, and political institutions of each member country. The paper presents an empirical investigation of the European benchmark. Based on the results obtained, all countries can improve their performance, and none of them can be considered a model for the others. However, the Mediterranean and post-communist countries have more challenges to face and therefore need to make greater efforts.     

Intra- and inter-group composite indicators using the BoD model

We extent the radial DEA model with a single constant input, often referred to as the Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BoD) model, to account for environmental or contextual differences. Based on this we estimate three types of composite indicators, namely the pooled that uses the entire sample of the evaluated units, the intra-group that accounts for within group differences, and the inter-group that reflects between group differences. In addition, we provide theoretically consistent aggregation rules for these types of composite indicators. We applied the proposed methodology to analyze the financial performance of public and private hospitals in Greece by means of financial ratios referring to their liquidity performance and to examine the extent of differences in the inter-group composite indicators between the two types of ownership both at the individual and the aggregate level.     

The importance of national institutional arrangements: the case of trade union membership and unemployment

In some EU countries the trade unions are centrally involved in the administration and distribution of unemployment benefits. This institutional relationship is held to play an important role in accounting for the relatively high level of union density in the countries concerned. However, there has been very little systematic, empirical research designed to demonstrate this alleged effect. This paper analyses a large-scale body of survey data for all the EU countries in 1993 to test for this effect, with the results strongly confirming the role and strength of this institutional relationship.     

The impact of research collaboration on academic performance: An empirical analysis for some European countries

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal and external research collaborations on the scientific performance of academic institutions. The data are derived from the international SCOPUS database. We consider both quantity (the number of publications) and quality indicators (the field-weighted citation impact and the share of publications in the 10% most-cited articles) to evaluate universities' performance in some European countries (Germany, France, Italy, the UK and Russia). To this end, we develop a non-overlapping generations model to evidence the theoretical idea of research externalities between academic institutions. Moreover, we implement an empirical model to determine the extent to which the impact of internal and external collaborations on universities' performance is sensitive to the geographical dimension of the data.     

Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000.     

Adopt the euro? The GME approach

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the degree of financial integration achieved in the European Union based on covered interest parity and using Generalized Maximum Entropy. EU countries are divided into two groups according to their current situation with respect to the adoption of the euro. Financial integration before the adoption of the euro is analyzed for the countries that adopted the euro in 1999. Similarly, current financial integration is evaluated for non-euro EU countries. Besides the importance of comparing the situation of the non-euro EU countries with the situation of the euro EU countries previous to the euro adoption, which may be useful to evaluate an eventual decision of the non-euro members to adopt the euro, it is interesting to analyze the performance of Generalized Maximum Entropy. Generalized Maximum Entropy has the ability to estimate the parameters of a regression model without imposing any constrains on the probability distribution of errors and it is robust even when we have ill-posed problems. Overall our results suggest that the degree of financial integration on non-euro countries is lower than the degree of financial integration that existed among euro adopting countries before the adoption of the euro.     

Social responsibility portfolio optimization incorporating ESG criteria

Social responsibility investment (SRI) has attracted worldwide attention for its potential in promoting investment sustainability and stability. We developed a three-step framework by incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance into portfolio optimization. In comparison to studies using weighted ESG rating scores, we constructed a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with quadratic and cubic terms to enhance the evidence of two or more aspects, as well as the interaction between the environmental, social, and governance attributes. We then combined the ESG scores with financial indicators to select assets based on a cross-efficiency analysis. The portfolio optimization model incorporating ESG scores with selected assets was constructed to obtain a social responsibility investment strategy. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we applied it in the United States industrial stock market from 2005 to 2017. The empirical results show that the obtained SRI portfolio may be superior to traditional investment strategies in many aspects and may simultaneously achieve the consistency of investment and social values.     

On the Identification of Interdependence and Contagion of Financial Crises

In this paper we propose a new framework for modelling heteroskedastic structural vector autoregressions. The identification of the structural parameters is obtained by exploiting the heteroskedasticity in the data naturally arising during crisis periods. More precisely, we provide identification conditions when heteroskedasticity and traditional restrictions on the parameters are jointly considered. Although the framework is general enough to find potential applications in many empirical economic fields, it proves to be well suited for distinguishing between interdependence and contagion in the literature related to the transmission of financial crises. This methodology is used to investigate the relationships between sovereign bond yields for some highly indebted EU countries.     

Union density and determinants of union membership in 18 EU countries: evidence from micro data, 2002/031

Using representative individual-level data from the first round of the European Social Survey fielded in 2002/03, this article provides an empirical analysis of unionisation in 18 countries of the EU. We show that union density varies considerably in Europe, ranging from 84 per cent in Denmark to 11 per cent in Portugal. Estimating identical models for each country, we find that individuals’ probability of union membership is significantly affected by their personal characteristics, their attitudes and the characteristics of their workplace, whereas social factors seem to play a minor role. The presence of a union at the workplace and employees’ attitudes concerning strong unions are the two variables most strongly associated with unionisation.     

在线旅行服务企业战略绩效评价体系研究

本研究采用深度访谈法搜集数据,利用内容分析法构建了在线旅行服务企业战略绩效评价维度和指标,运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法构建了在线旅行服务企业战略绩效综合评价体系。首先,将在线旅行服务企业战略绩效评价体系分为6个一级指标、16个二级指标和34个三级指标,财务状况、市场地位、产品质量、服务质量、员工关系和社会责任6个维度为一级指标;其次,运用层次分析法确定了各一级和二级评价指标的权重系数,其中财务状况的权重最高,随后依次是市场地位、产品质量、服务质量、员工关系和社会责任;最后,利用模糊综合评价法构建了在线旅行服务企业战略绩效综合评价体系模型。本研究在理论上丰富了在线旅行服务企业战略绩效管理的研究内容和理论,也为未来的实证研究提供了可靠和操作性强的战略绩效评价工具。     

基于注意力机制的LSTM股价趋势预测研究

针对中国股票市场,提出了一种基于注意力机制的LSTM股价趋势预测模型。选取42只中国上证50从2009年到2017年的股票数据为实验对象,根据股票市场普遍认可的经验规则,分别对每个技术指标进行量化处理得到股票涨跌的趋势数据,并和交易数据混合作为预测模型的输入,然后使用基于注意力机制的LSTM模型提取股价趋势特征进行预测。实验结果表明:引入股票离散型趋势数据到预测模型中,能够在已有交易数据和技术指标的基础上提升预测精确度,与传统的机器学习模型SVM和单一的LSTM模型相比,基于注意力机制的LSTM模型具有更好的预测能力。