Economic fundamentals,policy responses,and state-level municipal bond sensitivity to COVID-19 prevalence

This paper conducts a state-by-state analysis of the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. municipal bond market. Using panel regressions and state-by-state regressions, we find that the prevalence rates of the COVID-19 virus negatively impacted the aggregate performance of municipal bonds. The study also explored whether the disparities in the economic fundamentals of U.S. states, as well as the COVID-19 mitigation policies employed by each state, can explain the sensitivity of the state’s municipal bond to its COVID-19 prevalence rates. States with more desirable economic fundamentals and robust COVID-19 mitigation policies appeared to have higher COVID-19 sensitivities than states that do not. This finding may be due to a baseline effect, in which the higher levels of economic activities in these states also make them more susceptible to the deleterious effects of the stronger mitigation policies enacted by them.     

Epidemics and macroeconomic outcomes: Social distancing intensity and duration

We analyze the determination of the optimal intensity and duration of social distancing policy aiming to control the spread of an infectious disease in a simple macroeconomic–epidemiological model. In our setting the social planner wishes to minimize the social costs associated with the levels of disease prevalence and output lost due to social distancing, both during and at the end of epidemic management program. Indeed, by limiting individuals’ ability to freely move or interact with others (since requiring to wear face mask or to maintain physical distance from others, or even forcing some businesses to remain closed), social distancing has on the one hand the effect to reduce the disease incidence and on the other hand to reduce the economy’s productive capacity. We analyze both the early and the advanced epidemic stage intervention strategies highlighting their implications for short and long run health and macroeconomic outcomes. We show that both the intensity and the duration of the optimal social distancing policy may largely vary according to the epidemiological characteristics of specific diseases, and that the balancing of the health benefits and economic costs associated with social distancing may require to accept the disease to reach an endemic state. Focusing in particular on COVID-19 we present a calibration based on Italian data showing how the optimal social distancing policy may vary if implemented at national or at regional level.     

Prevention and mitigation of epidemics: Biodiversity conservation and confinement policies

This paper presents a first model integrating the relation between biodiversity loss and zoonotic pandemic risks in a general equilibrium dynamic economic set-up. The occurrence of pandemics is modeled as Poissonian leaps in economic variables. The planner can intervene in the economic and epidemiological dynamics in two ways: first (prevention), by deciding to conserve a greater quantity of biodiversity to decrease the probability of a pandemic occurring, and second (mitigation), by reducing the death toll through a lockdown policy, with the collateral effect of affecting negatively labor productivity. The policy is evaluated using a social welfare function embodying society’s risk aversion, aversion to fluctuations, degree of impatience and altruism towards future generations. The model is explicitly solved and the optimal policy described. The dependence of the optimal policy on natural, productivity and preference parameters is discussed. In particular the optimal lockdown is more severe in societies valuing more human life, and the optimal biodiversity conservation is larger for more “forward looking” societies, with a small discount rate and a high degree of altruism towards future generations. Moreover, societies accepting a large welfare loss to mitigate the pandemics are also societies doing a lot of prevention. After calibrating the model with COVID-19 pandemic data we compare the mitigation efforts predicted by the model with those of the recent literature and we study the optimal prevention–mitigation policy mix.     

One crisis,different paths to supply resilience: The case of ventilator procurement for the COVID-19 pandemic

This research explores supply resilience through an equifinality lens to establish how buying organizations impacted differently by the same extreme event can strategize and all successfully secure supply. We conduct case study research and use secondary data to investigate how three European governments sourced for ventilators during the first wave of COVID-19. The pandemic had an unprecedented impact on the ventilator market. It disrupted already limited supply and triggered a demand surge. We find multiple paths to supply resilience contingent on redundant capacity and local sourcing options at the pandemic's onset. Low redundancy combined with limited local sourcing options is associated with more diverse strategies and flexibility. The most notable strategy is spurring supplier innovation by fostering collaboration among actors in disparate industries. High redundancy combined with multiple local sourcing options is associated with more focused strategies and agility. One (counter-intuitive) strategy is the rationalization of the supply base.     

The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus

Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.     

Benchmarking sustainable E-commerce enterprises based on evolving customer expectations amidst COVID-19 pandemic

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has seriously impacted the performance of all types of businesses. It has given a tremendous structural boost to e-commerce enterprises by forcing customers to online shopping over visiting physical stores. Moreover, customer expectations of the digital and operational capabilities of e-commerce firms are also increasing globally. Thus, it has become crucial for an e-commerce enterprise to reassess and realign its business practices to meet evolving customer needs and remain sustainable. This paper presents a comprehensive performance evaluation framework for e-commerce enterprises based on evolving customer expectations due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The framework comprises seven primary criteria, which are further divided into 25 sub-criteria, including two sustainability factors, namely, environmental sustainability and carbon emissions. The evaluation approach is then practically demonstrated by analyzing the case of three Indian e-commerce firms. The results are obtained using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, namely, Fuzzy VIKOR, to capture the fuzziness of the inherent decision-making problem. Further, numerical analysis is conducted to evaluate and rank various e-commerce enterprises based on customer expectations and satisfaction benchmarks. The findings explain the most important criteria and sub-criteria for e-commerce businesses to ensure customer expectations along with their economic and environmental sustainability.     

Infectious diseases and economic growth

This paper develops a framework to study the economic impact of infectious diseases by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a neo-classical growth model. There is a two way interaction between the economy and the disease: the incidence of the disease affects labor supply, and investment in health capital can affect the incidence and recuperation from the disease. Thus, both the disease incidence and the income levels are endogenous. The disease dynamics make the control problem non-convex thus usual optimal control results do not apply. We establish existence of an optimal solution, continuity of state variables, show directly that the Hamiltonian inequality holds thus establishing optimality of interior paths that satisfy necessary conditions, and of the steady states. There are multiple steady states and the local dynamics of the model are fully characterized. A disease-free steady state always exists, but it could be unstable. A disease-endemic steady state may exist, in which the optimal health expenditure can be positive or zero depending on the parameters of the model. The interaction of the disease and economic variables is non-linear and can be non-monotonic.     

Latent social distancing: Identification,causes and consequences

It is not directly observable how effectively a society practices social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper proposes a novel and robust methodology to identify latent social distancing at the country level. We extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) model with a time-varying, country-specific distancing term, and derive the Model-Inferred DIStancing index (MIDIS) for 120 countries using readily available epidemiological data. The index is not sensitive to measurement errors in epidemiological data and to the values assigned to model parameters. The evolution of MIDIS shows that countries exhibit diverse patterns of distancing during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic—a persistent increase, a trendless fluctuation, and an inverted U are among these patterns. We then implement regression analyses using MIDIS and obtain the following results: First, MIDIS is strongly correlated with available mobility statistics, at least for high income countries. Second, MIDIS is also strongly associated with (i) the stringency of lockdown measures (governmental response), (ii) the cumulative number of deceased persons (behavioral response), and (iii) the time that passed since the first confirmed case (temporal response). Third, there is statistically significant regional variation in MIDIS, and more developed societies achieve higher distancing levels. Finally, MIDIS is used to explain output losses experienced during the pandemic, and it is shown that there is a robust positive relationship between the two, with sizable economic effects.     

Analyzing the emotional impact of COVID-19 with Twitter data: Lessons from a B-VAR analysis on Italy

The novel coronavirus 2019 revolutionized the way of living and the communication of people making social media a popular tool to express concerns and perceptions. Starting from this context we built an original database based on the Twitter users’ emotions shown in the early weeks of the pandemic in Italy. Specifically, using a single index we measured the feelings of four groups of stakeholders (journalists, people, doctors, and politicians), in three groups of Italian regions (0,1,2), grouped according to the impact of the COVID-19 crises as defined by the Conte Government Ministerial Decree (8^th March 2020). We then applied B-VAR techniques to analyze the sentiment relationships between the groups of stakeholders in every Region Groups. Results show a high influence of doctors at the beginning of the epidemic in the Group that includes most of Italian regions (Group 0), and in Lombardy that has been the region of Italy hit the most by the pandemic (Group 2). Our outcomes suggest that, given the role played by stakeholders and the COVID-19 magnitude, health policy interventions based on communication strategies may be used as best practices to develop regional mitigation plans for the containment and contrast of epidemiological emergencies.     

US state-level economic freedom during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to extensive new government regulations and lockdown policies that significantly reduced economic freedom across US states. Many of these new pandemic-related regulatory restrictions on economic freedom varied significantly from state to state but are largely missed by the existing Economic Freedom of North America Report (EFNA). This paper adjusts the Our World in Data COVID-19 Stringency Index into a state-level measure of lockdown regulatory freedom and then merges it into the EFNA index to better measure relative economic freedom across US states in 2020. We find significant differences in the relative ranking of economic freedom between states once we adjust for lockdown regulatory restrictions.     

The growth paradox,sustainable development,and business strategy

Economic growth is a two-edged sword. Expanding economies and industries create wealth and employment, but global economic expansion is having unprecedented deleterious impacts on vital planetary systems. Despite this, the core strategic goal of all economies and many businesses continues to be the pursuit of ongoing economic growth. To resolve this paradox, a reconceptualization of firm-level growth is presented. I describe and discuss the organizational characteristics of the growth paradox and follow this with a metatheoretical review of economic, organizational, and ecological perspectives on growth. From this review, a typology of firm-level strategy is developed that radically reconceptualizes business growth as developmental activity primarily concerned with social–ecological flourishing. The features of this typology and its implications for business strategy are discussed according to three principles that emerged from the analysis: multidexterity, resilience thinking for design, and inclusive balance (embeddedness). Together, these strategy principles form the prerequisite management competencies needed for the development, implementation, and evaluation of sustainable business strategies. Transformative firm-level responses to the growth paradox are needed if sustaining forms of organizational growth are to be achieved and this paper presents a novel integrative framework for informing those strategies.     

Evaluating the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment,income distribution and poverty in Turkey

In the recent World Economic Outlook, the IMF indicates that world output shrank by 3.5% in 2020. Despite all pessimistic expectations, the Turkish economy was one of the few countries to have a positive, albeit low, economic growth rate in 2020. This was, however, achieved at the expense of high social and economic costs. The present research examines the distributional costs of this economic growth during the pandemic and suggests economic measures required to control them. The empirical examination is based on generating unavailable income and living conditions for 2020 by using the results available in TurkStat’s 2017 Income and Living Conditions Survey. The actual changes in sectoral output and employment, which are available as of March 2021, are used to generate changes in the income levels of households in TurkStat’s 2017 survey. The research empirically shows that adequate fiscal support with a large scope for households and businesses is necessary to compensate for economic losses caused by the pandemic. The short-run working allowance policy appears to have been very important to improve income distribution, which might have deteriorated due to the pandemic. Direct cash support to households is considered another essential policy measure that is required to mitigate the severity of increased poverty.     

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk

Governments around the world are tackling the COVID-19 pandemic with a mix of public health, fiscal, macroprudential, monetary, and/or market-based policies. We assess the impact of the pandemic in Europe on sovereign CDS spreads using an event study methodology. We find that a higher number of cases and deaths and public health containment responses significantly increase the uncertainty among investors in European government bonds. Other governmental policies magnify the effect in the short run as supply chains are disrupted. Moreover, an increased debt-to-GDP ratio significantly boosts the cumulative abnormal change of CDS spreads, which indicates that investors are concerned about countries that are too indebted and thus have a limited capacity to intervene and provide fiscal stimuli and emergency fiscal packages to businesses and households.     

COVID-19 crisis and the efficiency of Indian banks: Have they weathered the storm?

The purpose of this study is to determine whether Indian banks were able to weather the COVID-19 storm. We estimate banks’ deposits-generating and operating efficiencies using a two-stage directional distance function-based network data envelopment analysis (DDF-NDEA) approach and seek to capture the immediate impact of COVID-19 on these efficiency measures by comparing their magnitudes in the pre-pandemic (2014/15–2019/20), just 1-year prior to the pandemic (2019/20), and during the pandemic year (2020/21) periods. The study looks at whether the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was uniform across ownership types and size classes. The empirical findings suggest that the Indian banking system was resilient and withstood the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the study period, however, the large and medium-sized banks experienced some efficiency losses. By and large, regardless of bank group, banks have shown resilience to the shock of the global health pandemic and improvements in efficiency.     

FDI spillovers and firm productivity during crisis: Empirical evidence from transition economies

Most studies on foreign direct investment (FDI) are nested within periods of economic prosperity. Our study investigates the impact of FDI spillovers on productivity during the global financial crisis (2006–2014) and the accompanying credit shortage. A dynamic panel analysis of firm-level data from two neighbouring but distinct transition economies, Croatia and Slovenia, reveals that the impact of the crisis may go as far as halting the process of learning through spillovers if firms have difficulties in accessing external funds. The implications of the study may prove particularly beneficial to policy makers grappling with the economic crisis following the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Partial information about contagion risk,self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization

This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.     

Industries' heterogeneous reactions during the COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from Chinese stock markets

This study examines the heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on stock prices in China. We confirm what is already known, that the pandemic has had a significant negative impact on stock market returns. Additionally, we find, this effect is heterogeneous across industries. Second, fear sentiment can directly cause stock prices to fall and panic exacerbates the negative impact of the pandemic on stock returns. Third, and most importantly, we demonstrate the underlying mechanisms of four firm characteristics and find that those with high asset intensity, low labor intensity, high inventory-to-revenue ratio, and small market value are more negatively affected than others. For labor-intensive state-owned firms, in particular, stock performance worsened because of higher idle labor costs. Finally, we created an index to measure the relative position of an industry in the supply chain, which shows that downstream companies were more vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic.     

Examining the success of women of color-owned small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States: A system dynamics perspective

The objective of this study was to unravel the challenges confronting women of color (WoC)-owned small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the United States. This is based on findings that most WoC-owned SMEs fail within the first few years of establishment. The impact of the global financial crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic on WoC-owned SMEs was also explored. System Dynamics (SD) is a computational modeling approach useful for understanding changes in a system over time and is applied in this study to illustrate WoC entrepreneurs' navigation through the startup and maturation of SMEs. The authors calibrated and validated the model with publicly available data. Findings revealed that more emphasis should be placed on failure reduction in the early years of establishment of these businesses. Also, there is the need for early intervention rather than focusing on the improvement of the successful business exit from the system. Results indicated that the creation of new businesses by WoC after the failure of existing businesses produced an increase in the number of failed enterprises. The authors assert that attention must be paid at the individual level through support to the entrepreneur. This study contributes to the extant literature by providing the first known SD model useful in depicting the SME system for WoC entrepreneurs in the US. The model serves as a potentially useful tool for informing effective policy making, education, and programmatic approaches to support the success of WoC entrepreneurs in the US.

     

The structural,social, and strategic factors associated with successful business networks

Business networks, formal arrangements between independent businesses established to enhance member success, are generally accepted as an important strategy to help small businesses survive and prosper, and to promote regional economic development. However, knowledge about what contributes to the success of business networks themselves is less extensive and based primarily on case studies or reports of network directors. The purpose of this paper is to partially address this shortcoming. We consider the structural and social features identified in previous studies as likely correlates of business network success. Using a social constructionist definition of network success, we distinguish successful from less successful networks from among a sample of 29 industry and community business networks in the USA. Findings from interviews with 1122 members and 29 network leaders suggest that trust is central to understanding network success. Structural features have complex positive and negative indirect effects on success through trust and resource exchanges. The findings highlight the fact that business networks, while offering great potential as a way to enhance economic vitality of regions and industries, cannot be viewed as a simple remedy.     

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamic correlations between gold and U.S. equities: evidence from multifractal cross-correlation analysis

This study exploits multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cross-correlations between gold and U.S. equity markets using 1-min high-frequency data from January 1, 2019, to December 29, 2020. The MFCCA method shows that the pandemic caused an increase of multifractality in cross-correlations between the two markets. Specifically, the cross-correlations of small fluctuations became more persistent while those of large fluctuations became less persistent, explaining the source of multifractality. The findings of this study carry significant implications for investors, academicians, and policymakers. For example, the increase of multifractality of cross-correlation means that the non-linear relationship between gold and U.S. equity returns prevails more during economic downturns. Therefore, academicians may resort to non-linear techniques to evaluate the relationship between gold and U.S. equity markets during the health pandemic. Moreover, investors can know the value of hedging benefits over different investment time horizons during the pandemic. Finally, policymakers can better assess the economic downturns (i.e., those caused by health pandemics) over the dynamics of cross-correlation between gold and equity markets to make sound financial policies.