Is Exporting a Source of Productivity Spillovers?

This paper investigates whether exporting generates positive productivity spillover effects on other plants in the same industry and on plants in vertically related industries. Using data for Chilean manufacturing plants from 1990 to 1999, we find strong evidence that domestic as well as foreign-owned exporting plants improve productivity of local suppliers. We also find some evidence of horizontal spillovers from exporting but these are mainly generated by plants with foreign ownership. These results suggest that positive productivity spillovers are not only generated by the presence of foreign-owned exporting plants but also by exporting activity of domestic firms. The results are robust to controls for agglomeration of economic activity, the importance of non-exporting foreign-owned plants, and plant unobserved heterogeneity. JEL no.  F10, F23, O3, O54     

Does agglomeration promote internationalization of Chinese firms?

Knowledge spillover from the agglomeration of exporters can reduce the initial costs of exporting faced by other firms and thereby facilitate exports. We use a large dataset of Chinese manufacturing firms to assess whether industrial agglomeration lowers the minimum productivity level required for exporting and whether it increases a firm's probability of exporting. Semi-parametric quantile regressions reveal that the productivity advantage of exporters against non-exporters is markedly smaller in agglomerated regions. Furthermore, a parametric estimation of an export entry model indicates that the agglomeration of incumbent exporters contributes significantly to export participation, although its magnitude is limited. These spillover effects are generated not only by the agglomeration of exporting foreign invested firms (FIFs), but also, more importantly, by that of indigenous Chinese exporters. In fact, the agglomeration of exporting FIFs only contributes to the export entry of FIFs.     

Exporting and Productivity in the USA

Exporting is often touted as a way to increase economic growth.This paper examines the interaction between exporting and productivitygrowth in US manufacturing. While exporting plants have substantiallyhigher productivity levels, there is no evidence that exportingincreases plant productivity growth rates. The higher productivityof exporters largely predates their entry into exporting. However,within the same industry, exporters do grow faster than non-exportersin terms of both shipments and employment. Exporting is associatedwith the reallocation of resources from less efficient to moreefficient plants. In the aggregate, these reallocation effectsare quite large, making up over 40 per cent of total factorproductivity growth in the manufacturing sector. Half of thisreallocation to more productive plants occurs within industriesand the direction of the reallocation is towards exporting plants.     

Multinationals and plant survival

The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to investigate how different ownership structures affect plant survival, and second, to analyze how the presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) affects domestic plants’ survival. Using a unique and detailed data set on the Swedish manufacturing sector, I am able to separate plants into those owned by foreign MNEs, domestic MNEs, exporting non-MNEs, and purely domestic firms. In line with previous findings, the result, when conditioned on other factors affecting survival, shows that foreign MNE plants have lower survival rates than non-MNE plants. However, separating the non-MNEs into exporters and non-exporters, the result shows that foreign MNE plants have higher survival rates than non-exporting non-MNEs, while the survival rates of foreign MNE plants and exporting non-MNE plants do not seem to differ. Moreover, the simple non-parametric estimates show that domestic MNE plants are more likely to exit the market than other plants, also when controlling for plant-specific differences. Finally, foreign presence in the market seems to have had a negative impact on the survival rate of plants in non-exporting non-MNEs, but not to have affected plants in exporting non-MNEs or plants in domestic MNEs.     

On the microstructure of the german export boom: Evidence from establishment panel data, 1995–2002

This paper uses an unbalanced panel data set for exporting firms from manufacturing industries in one German federal state, Lower Saxony, to investigate the microstructure of the recent export boom. Looking at data for 1995/96–2001/02 it is demonstrated that a considerable number of plants start and stop exporting in each year, but that most of the export dynamics is due to positive and negative changes of exports in plants that continue exporting. A small fraction made of 4–5 percent of all exporting plants is responsible for around 70 to 80 percent of the gross increase in exports. Firms with expanding and contracting exports are found simultaneously in all broad sectors, technology classes and firm size classes. Patterns of export behavior differ widely between the plants over the periods investigated. JEL no. F14, E32     

Do Exporting Firms Pay Higher Wages? Evidence from Kenya's Manufacturing Sector

Abstract: When trade liberalization was first embarked on in Kenya some 20 years ago, a key argument against it was that it would reduce domestic wages, as exporting firms sought to remain competitive versus, for example, the low‐cost Asian countries. A counter argument was that manufactured exports require more elaborate design, supervision, packaging and handling, and thus a more educated labor force than production for the domestic market. To attract such skills, exporting firms would need to pay higher wages than non‐exporting ones. This paper uses data from Kenyan manufacturing to study the impact of trade liberalization on earnings, distinguishing between exporting and non‐exporting firms. In particular, it investigates whether exporting firms paid a wage‐premium to their employees. The study uses manufacturing firm survey data from a World Bank regional project. The study has three important findings: (1) There was a large and significant effect of exporting on wages in the first decade of trade liberalization. During the first half of the 1990s, workers in exporting firms earned up to 30 percent more than those engaged in non‐exporting firms. The results are robust even after controlling for individual and firm‐level characteristics such as employee demographics, productivity, firm location and occupation. (2) After a decade of trade liberalization, exporting ceased to be a significant determinant of wages in Kenyan manufacturing, after controlling for productivity and firm location. (3) During the 2000s, casual or irregular employment became a more common feature of exporting firms. The results suggest that while higher wages were important in attracting skilled labor to exporting firms at the beginning of trade liberalization in the 1990s, domestic competition has since reduced the wage premium. Cost cutting pressures are instead reflected in the substitution of casual and low wage labor for permanent and better educated labor and in increased automation.     

FOREIGN NETWORKS AND EXPORTS: RESULTS FROM INDONESIAN PANEL DATA

Most firms and plants in developing countries produce only for the domestic market and few are able to export. One plausible hypothesis is that foreign networks decrease export costs and that plants with large amounts of such networks will be relatively likely to start exporting. We focus on two types of foreign networks: foreign ownership and imports of intermediate products. Our results suggest that plants in Indonesian manufacturing with any foreign ownership are substantially more likely to start exporting than wholly domestically owned plants. The results remain robust to alternative model specifications and after controlling for other plant characteristics. There is no effect on exports of imports of intermediate products.     

Do Non‐exporting Plants Benefit from Exporting Peer Plants?*

This study examines indirect spillover effects at plant level within firms by analyzing the performance of non‐exporting plants with exporting peer plants by using Korean plant–firm matched data from 2007 to 2013. Our results show that there are no significant differences in growth between non‐exporting plants and their exporting peer plants in the same firms, whereas significant differences exist among non‐exporting plants depending on whether their peers export. This implies that exporting peer plants are important channels through which non‐exporting plants benefit within a firm.     

Export entry and exit by German firms

Export Entry and Exit by German Firms. — While exports have played an important role in German business cycles, little is known about the export supply response of German firms. This paper presents a dynamic model of the export decision by a profit-maximizing firm. Using a panel of German manufacturing plants, we test for the role of plant characteristics and sunk costs in the entry decision. We find evidence for substantial sunk costs: exporting today by a plant increases the probability by 50 percent that the plant will export tomorrow. This advantage depreciates quickly, falling by two-thirds in a year. The authors also find evidence that plant success, as measured by size and productivity, increases the likelihood of exporting.     

金融服务开放与制造业企业出口产品质量:影响机制与经验证据

文章从理论上分析了金融服务开放影响制造业企业出口产品质量提升的动态演变过程，并利用2004-2013年中国金融服务进出口和中国工业企业数据对理论推演进行验证。结果表明：金融服务开放显著促进了制造业出口产品质量升级，且金融服务引进来对制造业企业出口产品质量提升的作用略大于金融服务走出去所产生的作用；从不同贸易方式、不同衡量指标、不同企业所有制等方面对此进行检验均证实了金融服务开放对制造业出口产品质量升级的正向作用；影响机制检验和扩展分析显示，创新效应、金融服务"引进来"对"走出去"的推动、垂直专业化效应和本地吸收效应影响着金融开放对企业出口产品质量升级的作用。文章的研究发现有助于为进一步扩大金融服务开放来推动制造业高质量发展提供有价值的政策依据。     

Lack of successors,firm default,and the performance of small businesses

We investigate the effects of the lack of successors on small businesses with an elderly manager. Using firm-level data from Japan, a country with an aging population, we find the following results. First, smaller, younger, highly leveraged, and nongrowing firms are likely to have no successor. Second, firms with an elderly manager are more likely to exit and default if they have no successors, and this is particularly the case during the global financial crisis around 2009. This result suggests that these firms have less incentive to repay debts because they are not going concerns. As a result of the high probability of default, the annual change in bank borrowing is low if firms with an elderly manager have no successor. Third, the annual change of bank borrowing is lower for firms with no successor during the crisis and post-crisis periods, implying that banks reduce lending to these firms because of their high risk.     

Global value chains and servicification of manufacturing: Evidence from firm-level data

Recent literature on global value chains (GVCs) has mainly focused on manufacturing firms’ global sourcing and investment strategies. Our question here is that, if the manufacturing firms established foreign manufacturing plants and engaged in sourcing inputs and exporting outputs, have they changed their domestic employment composition toward service workers? This is what we call servicification of manufacturing firms in this paper. To answer this question, using Korean firm-establishments matched data, we examine changes in the shares of service employment in manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2013, when those firms are participating in both import-and-export and foreign direct investment (i.e., GVC firms). We find that the two-way trading firms that own manufacturing plants in foreign countries—and particularly in nearby foreign countries—have changed their domestic employment structures to increase the number of service workers they employ. Moreover, the relatively greater increase in the share of R&D workers than of wholesale-and-retail workers serves as further evidence of the servicification of domestic manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that Korean firms who engage in GVCs through both trade and foreign direct investment have reorganized domestic labor structure to be able to provide high value-added headquarter services for their manufacturing plants that are closely located in foreign countries.     

High productivity before or after exports? An empirical analysis of Korean manufacturing firms

This study investigates whether exporting is a cause or an effect of high productivity of firms’ in the Korean manufacturing industries. For this purpose, a panel database is assembled with 1335 firms from eight Korean manufacturing industries during 1997–2003. Evidence that high productivity causes exporting, referred to as self-selection, is found in three out of eight industries. However, we do not find support for the hypothesis that high productivity is affected by exporting, except in one industry. Sunk-cost or previous-export-experience effect on the current export status is statistically significant and robust across industries unlike that of firms’ productivity and size.     

Financial market integration,exchange rate policy,and the dynamics of business and employment in Korea

We study the consequences of different degrees of international financial market integration and exchange rate policies in a calibrated, medium-scale model of the Korean economy. The model features endogenous producer entry into domestic and export markets and search-and-matching frictions in labor markets. This allows us to highlight the consequences of financial integration and the exchange rate regime for the dynamics of business creation and unemployment. We show that, under flexible exchange rates, access to international financial markets increases the volatility of both business creation and the number of exporting plants, but the effects on employment volatility are more modest. Pegging the exchange rate can have unfavorable consequences for the effects of terms of trade appreciation, but more financial integration is beneficial under a peg if the economy is subject to both productivity and terms of trade shocks. The combination of a floating exchange rate and internationally complete markets would be the best scenario for Korea among those we focus on.     

Reconsidering learning by exporting

Self-selection and learning by exporting are the main explanations for the higher productivity of exporting firms. But, whereas evidence on self-selection is largely undisputed, results on learning by exporting are mixed and far from conclusive. However, recent research by De Loecker (J Int Econ 73(1):69–98, 2007) has shown that the conclusions from previous learning by exporting studies may have been driven by strong assumptions about the evolution of productivity and the role of export status. Relaxing these assumptions turns out to be critical to find evidence of learning by exporting in a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms. Our results indicate that the yearly average gains in productivity are around 3 % for at least 4 years.     

基于KMV模型的中国制造业上市公司信用风险评价

经济新常态下,经济增长速度逐渐放缓,但日益重视发展质量。制造业作为资本密集型行业,避免违约风险不仅有利于公司可持续发展,也对降低系统性金融风险起到重要作用。以A股制造业70家上市公司为样本,以2018年10月1日到2019年9月30日为一个计算周期,运用KMV模型实证分析上市公司的股权价值波动率、资产价值波动率、信用违约距离和信用违约概率。结果表明,0.03可以作为制造业上市公司违约概率的临界点,超过0.03则可以判定该公司具有一定的信用风险。同时,将违约概率区间进行划分,划定信用等级。最后针对不同的问题提出解决方案和建议。     

Export Spillovers to Chinese Firms: Evidence from Provincial Data

Multinational firms are important conduits of managerial skills, foreign market linkages, and technology. Foreign export spillovers associated with multinational firms have the potential to reduce entry costs for local exporting firms. This paper examines whether exports by multinational firms increase the probability of exporting by domestic Chinese firms. The findings from the Probit estimation highlight the varying relationships between multinational exports and local foreign entry based on the type of ownership. The results from separating foreign-invested enterprises into overseas Chinese companies and OECD-based multinational firms suggest that the export activity of the former does not increase the probability of exporting by local firms, whereas the latter positively influence the export decision of local firms, particularly under processing trade.     

Social trust and international trade: the interplay between social trust and formal finance

Social trust can facilitate access to alternative sources of finance to firms when formal finance is scarce or entails large transaction costs, especially in economies with less developed financial systems. Since exporting firms are relatively more dependent on external finance, we find that high levels of social trust in an economy with a relatively less developed financial sector have positive effects on exports. We combine the World Values Survey that provides information on social values and the UN Comtrade data for the period 1995–2007. Our analysis is carried out at the level of bilateral trade in 2-digit and 3-digit digit industry classifications that not only allows controlling for industry-level heterogeneities but also mitigates concerns of potential reverse causality.