Long-run effects of training programs for the unemployed in East Germany

Public sector sponsored training was implemented at a large scale during the transition process in East Germany. Based on new administrative data, we estimate the differential effects of three different programs for East Germany during the transition process. We apply a dynamic multiple treatment approach using matching based on inflows into unemployment. We find positive medium- and long-run employment effects for the largest program, Provision of Specific Professional Skills and Techniques. In contrast, the programs practice firms and retraining show no consistent positive employment effects. Furthermore, no program results in a reduction of benefit recipiency and the effects are quite similar for females and males.     

SOME PRACTICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING

Abstract Propensity score matching (PSM) has become a popular approach to estimate causal treatment effects. It is widely applied when evaluating labour market policies, but empirical examples can be found in very diverse fields of study. Once the researcher has decided to use PSM, he is confronted with a lot of questions regarding its implementation. To begin with, a first decision has to be made concerning the estimation of the propensity score. Following that one has to decide which matching algorithm to choose and determine the region of common support. Subsequently, the matching quality has to be assessed and treatment effects and their standard errors have to be estimated. Furthermore, questions like ‘what to do if there is choice‐based sampling?’ or ‘when to measure effects?’ can be important in empirical studies. Finally, one might also want to test the sensitivity of estimated treatment effects with respect to unobserved heterogeneity or failure of the common support condition. Each implementation step involves a lot of decisions and different approaches can be thought of. The aim of this paper is to discuss these implementation issues and give some guidance to researchers who want to use PSM for evaluation purposes.     

Which covariates should be controlled in propensity score matching? Evidence from a simulation study

Propensity score matching is a widely‐used method to measure the effect of a treatment in social as well as medicine sciences. An important issue in propensity score matching is how to select conditioning variables in estimation of the propensity scores. It is commonly mentioned that variables which affect both program participation and outcomes are selected. Using Monte Carlo simulation, this paper shows that efficiency in estimation of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated can be gained if all the available observed variables in the outcome equation are included in the estimation of propensity scores. This result still holds in the presence of non‐sampling errors in the observed control variables.     

Sectoral labour market effects of the 2006 FIFA World Cup

Using the case of the 2006 FIFA World Cup, this study is the first to test the employment effects of a mega-sporting event on the basis of data that combines both regional and sectoral data. It is also the first study of sporting events to use a semi-parametric test method. Earlier studies on the World Cup could hardly identify any employment effects. In contrast, we find a small but significant positive employment effect on the hospitality sector.     

The distributive and welfare effects of product and labour market deregulation

This paper studies the effects of product and labour market deregulation on wage inequality and welfare. By constructing an analytically tractable model in which the level of product market competition and the wages are endogenously distributed among sectors, I show that deregulation in goods market has mixed effects on inequality: the wage variance and the Gini index are lower, but the ratio of the highest over the lowest wage paid in the economy increases. Moreover, deregulation in labour markets raises the aggregate level of employment and the average real wage but reduces the welfare of trade unions in sectors with a low level of competition.     

论现代商业流通模式对我国农资市场的影响

文章从分析我国农资市场现状入手,重点探讨了在当前的条件和背景下,新兴的商业流通模式给我国农资市场带来的影响。     

The importance of employer contacts: Evidence based on selection on observables and internal replication

I estimate effects of the labor market training program “Swit” on employment using both register and survey data. Swit was initiated in an attempt to increase the supply of qualified personnel in the IT sector. Based on the register data I find a large positive effect from the Swit on employment as compared to conventional programs directed towards IT. By also using survey information I conclude that the effect was due to increased employer contacts. The result is of interest because of the relatively large effect especially for individuals with traditionally weak positions on the labor market. Furthermore, I methodologically demonstrate how information about the contents of the programs may corroborate findings based on conditional independence assumptions.     

A specification test for the propensity score using its distribution conditional on participation

Propensity score matching has become a popular method for the estimation of average treatment effects. In empirical applications, researchers almost always impose a parametric model for the propensity score. This practice raises the possibility that the model for the propensity score is misspecified and therefore the propensity score matching estimator of the average treatment effect may be inconsistent. We show that the common practice of calculating estimates of the densities of the propensity score conditional on the participation decision provides a means for examining whether the propensity score is misspecified. In particular, we derive a restriction between the density of the propensity score among participants and the density among nonparticipants. We show that this restriction between the two conditional densities is equivalent to a particular orthogonality restriction and derive a formal test based upon it. The resulting test is shown via a simulation study to have dramatically greater power than competing tests for many alternatives. The principal disadvantage of this approach is loss of power against some alternatives.     

The effects of match uncertainty and bargaining on labor market outcomes: evidence from firm and worker specific estimates

In this paper we examine wage dispersion in labor markets across currently employed workers. We argue that differences in the potential productivity of a match (typically assumed to be known in the previous literature) generates a surplus between the minimum wage the worker is willing to accept and the maximum wage the firm is willing to offer for the job. Existence of this surplus leads to wage dispersion due to negotiating over the amounts extracted by each agent. Our objective is to estimate the surplus extracted by each firm-worker pair and the effect of the net extracted surplus on the wage, for each firm-worker pair using the two-tier stochastic frontier model. An empirical application finds that, on average, firms paid workers less than their expected productivity. More specifically, at the mean, the net effect of productivity uncertainty leads to equilibrium wages which are 3.33% below the expected productivity of matches.

Dynamic labour supply effects of childcare subsidies: Evidence from a Canadian natural experiment on low-fee universal child care

This paper shows that a temporary incentive to join the labor market or to work more can also produce substantial life-cycle labour supply effects. On September 1997, a new childcare policy was initiated by the provincial government of Québec, the second most populous province in Canada. Licensed and regulated providers of childcare services began offering day care spaces at the subsidized fee of $5/day/child for children aged 4. In successive years, the government reduced the age requirement, created new childcare facilities and spaces, and paid for the additional costs entailed by this low-fee policy. No such important policy changes for preschool (including kindergarten) children were enacted in the nine other Canadian provinces over the years 1997–2004. Using annual data drawn from Statistics Canada's Survey on Labour and Income Dynamics and a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental methodology, the paper estimates the dynamic labour supply effects of the program. The results demonstrate that the policy had long-term labour supply effects on mothers who benefited from the program when their child was less than 6. A striking feature of the results is that they are driven by changes in the labour supply of less educated mothers.     

Benefit shifting: The case of sickness insurance for the unemployed

This study describes the probability of transition from unemployment with unemployment insurance (UI) to sickness insurance (SI), using a proportional hazard duration model and a large register-based dataset. The combination of limited UI duration and the fact that SI rights do not depend on remaining UI, creates an incentive to use SI to effectively extend UI. The separate effects of elapsed unemployment duration and of UI duration on hazard rates are identified through a reform of the UI system. The estimated hazard rate for transition from unemployment to SI increases sharply the last months before UI exhaustion. The spikes are larger for diagnosis for mental illness, and vary across individuals, but are present for all groups and all diagnoses.     

Immigration and occupational status: A study of Bangladeshi and Turkish fathers and sons in the London labour market

This paper examines the labour market experience of 300 fathers and 300 of their sons in the Bangladeshi and Turkish immigrant communities in various London boroughs in 1988. Probit estimates are made in relation to employment and unemployment, self-employment and employment, and upward mobility or lack of it. Human capital regressions are also run for each of the four groups and for the combined sample. The evidence is consistent with distinctive labour market experience among the various groups.     

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects stochastic frontier model

In this paper we consider a fixed-effects stochastic frontier model. That is, we have panel data, fixed individual (firm) effects, and the usual stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) composed error.     

A note on the determination of A-optimal type block designs under fixed and mixed effects models

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a selected set of contrasts between v treatments using a block design consisting of b blocks of size k. Traditionally, the construction of A-optimal block designs for such situations has been carried out assuming a fixed effects model. In this paper, we show that A-optimal designs constructed under a fixed effects model are robust in the sense that these designs have maximal minimal efficiency when considered among all available designs and under all possible mixed effects models. AMS 1991 subject classifications: Primary 62K05; Secondary 62K10     

多元函数积分学考研试题的回顾与展望

对多元函数积分学在历年数学考研中知识点的回顾及统计分析,探究其试题来源,通过对未来试题的预测,提出备考建议。     

技术溢出机理及效应分析

文章对技术溢出概念进行了深入探讨,分析了溢出的外部性和有效性,在此基础上对技术溢出的负效应和限制性因素的概念进行了区分,同时对跨国公司技术溢出产生的机理和效应进行了详尽分析,给出了一种形象化的技术溢出模型。     

The impact of SARS on China's human resources: implications for the labour market and level of unemployment in the service sector in Beijing,Guangzhou and Shanghai

In this paper, we examine the effects of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) on China's human resources, its labour-market and its level of employment and unemployment, looking specifically at what was one of its economically most vulnerable points, the hotel industry. The paper hypothesizes that the greatest impact would be on human resources in the service-industries and on particular sub-sectors, such as employment in hotels, located in three main cities in the PRC, in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, catering to both overseas as well as domestic tourism. It tentatively concludes that the almost dramatic demand and supply ‘shocks’ may have directly affected both the demand for and the supply of labour in the sub-sector, with discernable employment consequences.     

国际型人才素质特征及其评价体系研究

文章在综述已有关于国际型人才界定相关论述的基础上,构筑了“基于冰山知识体系的国际型人才素质结构”模型,文后还给出了具体的评价指标体系。     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.