Deficiency Judgments and Borrower Maintenance: Theory and Evidence

It is well known that when property rights to an asset are divided, individual right holders may not have adequate incentives to invest in proper maintenance. In this paper, weexamine how mortgage laws affect the nature of the lender's claim to the house, and howthat claim in turn affects the incentives of borrowers to invest in home maintenance. Thespecific law that we examine concerns the right of lenders to pursue a borrower's nonhous-ingwealth in the event of default if the value of the house is less than the mortgage balance. Most states allow lenders to collect such “deficiency judgments,” while others either prohibit, or make it difficult to obtain them. The theoretical model developed inthis paper predicts that borrowers will maintain at a higher rate when lenders are allowedto seek deficiency judgments. Intuitively, when borrowers' nonhousing wealth is at risk,they have an incentive to invest more in maintenance in order to reduce the likelihood that the value of the property will fall below the mortgage balance. We attempt to measure this effect using data on household maintenance obtained from the American Housing Survey along with information on differences in mortgage laws across states. We estimate a three-equation simultaneous system relating maintenance expenditures, house value, and mortgage rates. The results provide confirmation that variation in mortgage laws affect homeowner maintenance in the manner predicted by the theory.     

Mineral-led Economic Growth, Drought Relief, and Incomes Policy

Abstract . Some analysts have hypothesized that rapid mineral led economic growth and drought in the rural economy have led to a severe worsening of the plight of the rural population in Botswana, with rural household income collapsing and income inequality worsening pronouncedly. Contrary to these hypotheses, Botswana's income data show that income distribution remained stable, since rural household incomes did not experience significant decline as a result of drought conditions. The government's incomes policy, the direct and indirect benefits of rapid employment growth, and the government's comprehensive drought relief support are seen as explanatory factors in this macroeconomic policy success.     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

量子测量、概率论与经济预测

历史的必然是由无数的偶然事件的发生来实现的,历史的必然是大概率事件,而那些无法准确预测的偶然事件便是那测不准的因子。生物进化史中既有遗传又有变异,本质上的原因,就是必然是由无数偶然实现的,偶然是必然中的具体体现。宏观经济与企业管理,一个代表了宏观、一个反应了微观,宏观经济有其历史规律,微观具体的企业管理却有诸多不确定因素。当前,我国经济发展进入了新常态,在总体向上向好发展的形势里,却存在一些企业业务不景气甚至濒临破产的情况。怎么样正确看待这种现象,眼下的经济到底如何评估?我们可以从概率论,甚至在量子物理中找到答案。     

经济分析中的干预主义政策与非干预主义政策

市场自由还是政府干预，贯穿于整个经济学发展的全过程，也是整个经济学各个流派争论的焦点。本文旨在对这一问题进行梳理，并进行剖析，给人以一定的启示。     

Control Theory and Macroeconomic Policy

This Briefing Paper examines the contribution that control theory can make to our understanding of macroeconomic policy. Control theory is an area of study, orginally developed in engineering, which has since been applied to a very wide range of problems not only in engineering but also in biology. ecology, physiology, space exploration and economics. The kinds of questions in economics which conrrol theory could help us to answer include: what objectives should the government be pursuing, infation or unemployment or both, and by what means? what instruments should be used and in what combinations? should the government adopt targets for the money supply or the exchange rate, or concentrate on unemployment and the balance of payments?     

新中国成立以来的区域经济政策实践与理论研究

中国是一个地域大国,自然条件复杂多样,历史文化丰富多彩,发展道路各有千秋,人文社会各具特色。作为一个大国,各地在发展中不可避免地会遇到各种区域利益关系的碰撞、冲突,需要调节、平衡,因此,区域政策就有了十分重要的意义。中国区域政策在新中国成立以来的实践及其取得的举世瞩目的成就,说明其不仅重要而且可行,可以做到并且做好,因此,区域经济政策研究就有了用武之地。当然,我们也有过教训和失误,付出过不小的代价,这是需要认真总结和思考的方面。在大数据分析日益深化的今天,运用文献计量法——CiteSpace5.3知识图谱,根据已有资料对1998—2019年区域政策研究文献展开共词分析、聚类分析、热点词突现分析,可以直观中国区域政策的研究热点、脉络与趋势。     

Economic Policy - Fact and Ambition

For much of the postwar period, the consensus in British macroeconomics held that output and unemployment were determined by demand which could be managed by the government. Constraints on policy were set by inflation and the balance of payments. Despite the failure of this approach in the 1970s and its rejection in favour of a less ambitious approach since 1979, there are signs that the old consensus is returning. It would be surprising if the 1990s did not produce a shift away from the more hands-off monetarist approach towards greater intervention once again.     

UK Economic Prospects and Policy Dilemmas

Our current forecast, largely unchanged from that published in the October 1992 Economic Outlook, is for a gradual recovery in economic activity during 1993, gathering pace in the course of the year. Unemployment continues to rise through the year, and inflation remains subdued. The main risk to the forecast lies in the possibility that a continued decline in property values may check reviving confidence and lead the banks to restrict lending.
The principal policy dilemma lies in the very high level of public sector borrowing, likely to rise to around 7.5 per cent of GDP on unchanged policies. The Government will need to signal its willingness to act to cut the PSBR by higher taxes or reduced spending plans. This will allow interest rates to remain low for longer, and offers the best prospects of maintaining a competitive pound and reducing the burgeoning current account deficit. There is room for a further cut in interest rates in the Budget to boost confidence and recovery, but rates may need to rise towards the end of the year if the higher prices resulting from the sterling devaluation start to feed into wage claims.
The Government should also consider seriously the need for reform of the institutional framework for policy making, to help restore credibility weakened by the manner of sterling's departure from the ERM. These should include greater openness about official thinking on monetary policy, and greater autonomy, within a new framework of accountability, for the Bank of England.     

Economic Prospects and Policy in Germany

Important economic policy signals have been set in the re-united Germany during the past few years. To achieve the ulfimate goal all those responsible for policy should adhere to the course adopted for lasting success.     

The Keynesian Paradigm and Economic Policy

Abstract . Keynesian macroeconomic theory and the new theory of the hitherto neglected branch of political science, public administration, which were both independently introduced at about the same time in the New Deal period of the 1930s, complemented each other. Keynesian theory, emphasizing government fiscal policy and deficit spending as counterdepression, full-employment, and economic growth measures, became the generally accepted paradigm in economics and public finance. Public administration theory held that government agencies, motivated primarily by their own bureaucratic expansionary self-interest, would bring about an equilibrium of national interest. This provided the justification for agency initiative in stimulating and supporting the demands of interest and pressure groups whose regulation required increased agency activity. The theories and their outcome reflected the continuing decline of classical liberalism.     

资源性农业废弃物的内涵、特征及经济价值

资源农业废弃物是一座巨大的宝库。但目前粗放的废弃物处理方式不但没能对资源性农业废弃物进行有效的转化利用,反而造成了极大的环境污染。本文对资源性农业废弃物内涵和经济价值进行了分析,旨在为后续的研究提供参考依据。     

投资者情绪、股利政策与公司价值研究

基于行为金融学背景对股利政策的信号传递作用进行的研究发现,在不同的投资者情绪条件下,股利政策信号传递的效应存在差异。在股市上涨时期,不同股利政策对投资者的投资决策的影响几乎没有显著差异;在股市下跌时期,现金股利成为投资者获得收益的主要来源,因此发放现金股利的公司受到市场追捧。因此,上市公司股利政策制定不仅要考虑自身情况,还需要考虑市场情绪。     

企业盈利水平、会计政策与权益账面价值的相关性分析

本文研究了企业所有者权益账面价值与其公允价值间的定量关系,通过对相应的计量模型进行推导并分析表明,企业的盈利水平和会计政策是影响权益会计计量价值相关性的决定性因素。在此基础上,本文对于以账面价值为基础评估权益的市场价值,以及会计信息价值相关性的经验性研究,提出了相关建议。